Summer travel will be more expensive and some airlines could go out of business as the war in Iran continues to drive oil prices up.

Airlines across the world have been grappling with higher jet fuel prices since the U.S. and Israel began bombing Iran late last month. Customers are already facing higher fares.

United Airlines Chief Executive Scott Kirby said this week that his company could face an $11-billion loss if oil prices remain at their current levels. Meanwhile, United’s airfare could increase by 20%, he said.

With thin profit margins and oil prices hovering around $100 per barrel, airlines have no choice but to pass the increased costs onto consumers.

Some airlines might not survive the hit.

Kirby compared the situation to the pandemic in 2020, when a global shutdown squashed demand and travel.

“If these other guys make the same mistakes they made six years ago, and if the forecast about $175 per barrel is right, you’ll see airlines not survive,” he said Tuesday.

Budget airlines are at higher risk because they have razor-thin margins and rely on high customer volume, said Alan Fyall, an associate dean of the University of Central Florida Rosen College of Hospitality Management.

Spirit, the low-cost carrier that filed for its second bankruptcy last year, cut several routes earlier this month.

“They’re less resilient to these types of challenges,” Fyall said.

The impact will vary by airline, he added. Many airlines hedge their fuel to negotiate a fixed price, and stock up on fuel while it’s less expensive.

United Chief Commercial Officer Andrew Nocella said the company is ready to face instability.

“We’ve prepared for shocks to our industry, because they occur on a regular basis,” he said.

“Just like the gas stations have, we’ll have to adjust pricing to reflect our cost of fuel,” he said. “We feel really good about the future even as we go through this period of higher oil prices.”

Like gas for cars, jet fuel is more expensive in California.

Type A jet fuel cost $12.72 per gallon on Friday at Los Angeles International Airport, according to Atlantic Aviation. At Denver International Airport, the price was $9.73 per gallon, and at Miami International Airport, it was $11.73.

The average price of auto fuel in California on Friday was $5.84 per gallon, compared to a national average of $3.97, according to AAA.

The West Coast is a “fuel island” because it’s not connected by pipelines to the rest of the country, Kirby said, meaning all oil and refined products have to be brought in by ships.

“Fuel price is more susceptible to supply weakness on the West Coast than anywhere else in the country,” Kirby said in an interview. “Prices are almost certainly going to be higher.”

Some flight routes in California from hubs such as San José and Burbank could become unavailable as airlines look to save money.

“Airlines will refuel where they can, at the cheapest source,” Fyall said. That could lead companies to avoid filling up in California when possible.

As the global conflict continues and the industry braces itself for even higher fuel prices, United unveiled a new product this week that it hopes will help boost demand.

The United Relax Row, which launches next year, turns a row of economy seats into lie-flat space ideal for families with small children.

Even as ticket prices increase, “there’s a good percentage of the market prepared to pay for elevated experience and elevated comfort,” Fyall said.

Shortly after the Iran war started four weeks ago, farming executive Bikram Hundal was beside himself.

The vice president of operations at Sequoia Nut Co. had shipped 15 containers of almonds, walnuts and pistachios from the Port of Long Beach, and he wasn’t exactly sure where they were on the high seas.

Their destination was Dubai’s Port of Jebel Ali, a major trading hub, but the jets, missiles and rockets crisscrossing Middle Eastern skies had diverted one ship to the Netherlands and another to Algeria.

Finally, the remainder of the 300 tons of California nuts worth $1.7 million was offloaded at the Port of Fujairah, also in the United Arab Emirates but on the Gulf of Oman, a bit farther from the fighting.

Now, shipping costs to the region have tripled to $7,500 per container, and Hundal is uncertain when the Tulare County company will get its money.

“They will be slow in paying for those goods, and they told us whatever goods were sold already to them [that] have not shipped, please do not ship those,” he said. “That will impact our cash flow. We have to pay the growers for them.”

Since the start of the war, the average price of a gallon of diesel in California has hit $7.26. Fertilizer prices have risen too.

As the war unfolds in Iran, farmers like Hundal are being whiplashed by forces beyond their control, including the cutting off of key export markets and a sharp rise in the cost of doing business.

The war has driven up the price of diesel that fuels trucks and farm and ranch equipment, as well as fertilizers critical for increasing crop yields — leading to fears that if the conflict goes on much longer it could push up prices at the market.

The average price of a gallon of diesel in California has hit $7.26, up more than $2 compared with a month ago. Diesel that powers tractors and other non-road vehicles and engines is typically almost $1 cheaper as it is exempt from certain taxes.

Tara Gallegos, a spokesperson for Gov. Gavin Newsom, blamed the farm economy difficulties on President Trump’s “recklessness” in starting the war.

“California farmers are getting hit twice with higher fertilizer costs and higher fuel costs. Every American will wind up paying for that at the grocery store because these commodities are priced globally,” she said.

Trump has made conflicting statements about the rise in fuel prices, contending that it is a “small price to pay” to pursue his war aims of knocking out Iran, but also saying he wants to wrap up hostilities quickly.

Even before the war, California’s farmers were struggling due to the disruption caused last year by Trump’s tariffs, which hit farmers hard as trading partners responded with their own duties.

California is the largest agricultural state in the nation as measured by the value of its crops, which topped $60 billion for the first time in 2024 — and it was hit with corresponding big losses last year.

The value of the top 13 state agricultural products exported to China — including almonds, pistachios and dairy — fell in aggregate by 64%, or $1 billion, in 2025, according to a recent UC Davis estimate.

Faith Parum, an economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation, said the rise in fertilizer and diesel prices follows last year’s tariff-related trade disruption and several years of natural disasters, including droughts and freezes.

“How do we make sure that we keep farmers in business? Because it is a matter of national security and food security,” she said.

Parum noted that farmers who plant crops such as corn, soy, rice and cotton have experienced nationwide losses of $90 billion since 2023.

Key ingredients for some fertilizers come from the oil-and-gas-rich Middle East, where the war has unsettled markets and supply chains.

Already there are reports that some fertilizers are up by a third or more in price. The rise is taking place in California and across the U.S. even though the country produces the majority of its nitrogen-based fertilizers, which are critical to improving crop yields.

The fertilizers are typically applied by U.S. farmers either as liquid nitrogen, liquid ammonia or as pellets of urea, which is the most common nitrogen-based fertilizer in the world, said Veronica Nigh, chief economist at the Fertilizer Institute.

While the vast majority of liquid nitrogen and ammonia is domestically produced, the U.S. imports about half of its urea, making it susceptible to the Middle East supply shock.

All nitrogen fertilizers are derived from ammonia, which is made using natural gas — with half of all exportable urea supplies coming from the oil-and-gas rich Mideast, where it has to pass through the disputed Strait of Hormuz, she said.

Prices are up worldwide, with fertilizer plants closing in Bangladesh, raising the specter of an urea shortage. That could lead to food shortages first in less wealthy countries, while U.S. consumers might see higher food prices unless the war winds down quickly, Nigh said.

Food prices rose sharply after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, but that was largely due to the countries being major grain exporters.

“This is different than anything we’ve experienced before, in that it is not occurring in a single market, and that it is something that is a critical input to growers around the world,” she said.

Sunrise over some of the 14,000 acres of walnut and almond orchards of Sequoia Nut Company and Custom Almonds.

The war is hitting Midwest farmers just as they enter the planting season for crops such as wheat, corn and soybean, and need to apply vast quantities of fertilizer.

California grows those crops too, but the big money is in nuts, produce and other “specialty” crops, leading to a constant demand for fertilizer. “You have price and purchase exposure throughout the year,” Nigh said.

Sal Parra Jr., who helps run his family’s 1,500-acre farm in Fresno County and is operations director at the more than 10,000-acre Bowles Farming Co. in adjacent Merced County, is the kind of farmer Nigh is talking about.

The two farms plant a large variety of crops, including nuts, corn, wheat, cotton, alfalfa and fruits and vegetables — all needing a variety of fertilizers and other nutrients.

The rise in costs are bad enough, but now there are fears that a key liquid fertilizer, UAN-32 — which contains three forms of nitrogen, including liquid urea — could be in short supply.

“We actually have taken the initiative at Bowles to fill as much storage as we have available with fertilizer to try to lessen the blow,” he said, noting his family farm doesn’t have the capacity to store much fertilizer.

There are techniques to stretch supplies by more efficiently applying fertilizer, Parra noted, such as by administering soil treatments, though they are costly.

In addition to rising fuel costs, farmers in the Central Valley say they are stockpiling fertilizer and looking for otherways to fertilize their crops.

“I think that a year like this, where you see fertilizer prices moving the way they’re moving, it may justify using other methodologies,” he said. “I’m going to get very creative with with our fertilizer programs.”

At the same time, he said, the farms are having to absorb higher costs for diesel, which runs pumps, tractors and big rigs carrying crops to market.

Much of what the farms sell is on contract with prices already set, which means those costs will have to be absorbed for now, said Parra, who worries many state crops could see lower sales as prices eventually rise in markets.

“A lot of what we grow are beautiful watermelons, or carrots or tomatoes, and depending on what the price is, people may or may not buy it,” he said.

The economic shocks caused nationwide by extreme weather events, the disruption of export markets and now the war have prompted the industry, including California growers, to seek federal assistance.

A driver hauls almonds in a tractor trailer to the scales to be weighed at Sequoia Nut Company and Custom Almonds in Tulare, Calif, on Thursday.

Trump’s massive tax-cut-and-spending bill last year increased payments to farmers. In December, Trump approved $12 billion in emergency assistance, including $1 billion for the kind of produce, nuts and other specialty crops grown in California.

And just last week, the administration issued an emergency fuel waiver to allow continuing nationwide sales of E15 — a gasoline blended with 15% ethanol, nearly all of which is produced from corn grown by U.S. farmers.

“That is very helpful,” Parum said.

Typically, sales of the gas are restricted during the summer due to the volatility of ethanol and its contribution to smog, but the Farm Bureau maintains that new studies show the blend is non-polluting.

Other relief being sought includes dropping long-standing duties on countries that export fertilizer products to the U.S., such as Morocco, a supplier of phosphates.

The war also is disrupting key markets for growers like Sequoia.

While the Middle East isn’t as large an export market for California farmers and ranchers as Canada, the European Union or Mexico; the United Arab Emirates ranks in the top 10 as the nuts, strawberries and other products exported there are distributed across the region.

Eric Andrade and Bikram Hundal, Vice President of Operations at Sequoia Nut Company and Custom Almonds discuss quality control in the company offices in Tulare, Calif., on Thursday.

Along with almonds and pistachios, walnuts are a staple of the Mideastern diet — and those grown by California farmers are considered the “gold standard,” said Robert Verloop, chief executive of the California Walnut Board and Commission.

The war struck right it the middle of the holiest month on the Islamic calendar, Ramadan, which began Feb. 17 and ended March 19, when consumption is higher.

About 70,000 tons of walnuts were on their way or about to be shipped to the region in the period leading up to and including Ramadan. That accounts for roughly 10% of California’s production, expected to hit $1 billion this year.

Some ships were temporarily diverted to ports in China, India and Europe until new customers are located. Many shipments are now being canceled before being loaded on ships, creating a backlog, Verloop said.

Harpal Singh, left, an employee at Sequoia Nut Company and Custom Almonds, loads almonds into bulk bags.

The war also has closed Mideastern markets as residents fearful of rocket attacks stay home. That has been a factor in reducing consumption, forcing some nuts to be sold elsewhere at discounted prices, he said.

Also, an expected wave of orders that typically follows Ramadan has not materialized, hurting California farmers who might not be able to make up the losses, he said.

“Life is not the same, and it’s not business as usual,” Verloop said. “There an expression in the industry. If you don’t eat it in February, you don’t need twice as much in March.”

In California’s spendy cities, living comfortably costs more than almost anywhere else.

From the Bay Area to Orange County, living well requires incomes north of $150,000 in the pricier places, according to a recent study. A family with two kids needs more than $400,000 per year in some spots.

The study, conducted by financial technology company SmartAsset, analyzed 100 of the largest cities in the country.

San José ranked as the second-most expensive city, where a single adult must make nearly $160,000 and a family of four needs over $400,000 to live comfortably, the study found. Orange County cities — Irvine, Anaheim and Santa Ana — followed closely behind.

New York City topped the list, with a salary for comfortable living at about $900 higher than in San José.

Los Angeles ranked 16th on the list, where a single adult must make $120,307 to live comfortably. A family of four should bring in just over $280,000 annually.

San Diego and Chula Vista tied for seventh place, with a $136,781 salary for a single adult. San Francisco came in ninth, followed by Fremont and Oakland, which tied for 10th.

Santa Clarita, Long Beach, Riverside and Sacramento also made the top 20 list.

The study measured comfortable living using the 50/30/20 rule, in which half of a household’s post-tax income should go to needs, 30% to wants and 20% to savings.

The company used the MIT living wage calculator to determine cost of living by region for single adults and families of four.

A family of four faces the toughest living costs in the Bay Area, taking up four of the top five cities with the highest salaries needed to live comfortably.

San Francisco topped that list, with income for two parents projected at $407,597. Projected income in San José was slightly lower at $402,771, followed by Fremont and Oakland.

The study’s findings are in line with existing research that paints a grim picture of the statewide housing crisis, said Carolina Reid, an associate professor of city and regional planning at UC Berkeley.

“California is one of the more expensive places to live, and that definitely is true when we’re talking about families who are juggling multiple competing demands on their incomes,” Reid said.

Housing costs, groceries and gas prices — all considered necessities in the study — have skyrocketed nationwide, while wages have largely remained stagnant.

California housing costs are about double the national average. The state has struggled to keep up with demand, largely due to the lingering impacts of decades-long missteps in housing policies, said Paavo Monkkonen, a professor in urban planning at UCLA.

“It’s a problem that we created very slowly over a long period of time,” Monkkonen said.

The expected salary needed to live comfortably was significantly higher than the median household income for some California cities.

The difference is especially stark in Santa Ana, where the median salary is $95,118 — over $56,000 less than the projected salary needed to live comfortably in the city for a single adult.

Los Angeles had a $38,000 gap between the city’s median household income of $82,263 and the projected salary.

Cost of living is often hard to measure given the variability in how households choose to spend their money, Reid said. Housing is also the primary driver for living costs, which Monkkonen said is difficult to measure given the market’s unpredictability.

“People are living here somehow, right?” he said. “If you just look at the incomes and rents separately, you don’t really get a picture of how people are doing it…they’re spending a lot of their incomes on rents, but they’re also doubling up.”