Business
Trump’s Tariff Threat for Drug imports Poses Big Political Risks
President Trump’s decision to move a step closer to imposing tariffs on imported medicines poses considerable political risk, because Americans could face higher prices and more shortages of critical drugs.
The Trump administration filed a federal notice on Monday saying that it had begun an investigation into whether imports of medicines and pharmaceutical ingredients threaten America’s national security, an effort to lay the groundwork for possible tariffs on foreign-made drugs.
Mr. Trump has repeatedly said he planned to impose such levies, to shift overseas production of medicines back to the United States. Experts said that tariffs were unlikely to achieve that goal: Moving manufacturing would be hugely expensive and would take years.
It was not clear how long the investigation would last or when the planned tariffs might go into effect. Mr. Trump started the inquiry under a legal authority known as Section 232 that he has used for other industries like cars and lumber.
Mr. Trump said in remarks to reporters on Monday that pharmaceutical tariffs would come in the “not too distant future.”
“We don’t make our own drugs anymore,” Mr. Trump said. “The drug companies are in Ireland, and they’re in lots of other places, China.”
While some drugs are made at least in part in the United States, America’s reliance on China for medicines has generated alarm for years, with both Republicans and Democrats identifying it as a national security vulnerability.
Many drugs are not produced without at least one stage of the manufacturing process happening in China. Even India’s giant generic drug sector is deeply dependent on China, because Indian manufacturers typically obtain their raw materials from Chinese plants.
Imposing disruptive levies on lifesaving medications creates risks for Mr. Trump that were not a major concern with some of his other tariff targets, like steel and aluminum, where Americans generally aren’t directly exposed to increased prices.
He could face a harsh backlash if pharmaceutical tariffs lead to significant drug price increases or shortages for patients. The number of drug shortages reached a record-level high last year. Americans fill several billion prescriptions a year, on top of purchasing over-the-counter products like cough syrup and Tylenol.
Mr. Trump has not talked much about lowering drug prices in his second term, nor did he make it a top issue in his 2024 campaign.
If pharmaceutical tariffs cause an increase in any drug prices, Democrats could jump on the issue for the midterm elections next year and try to undercut Mr. Trump’s popularity among working-class voters.
Democrats have already seized on the issue. In a letter sent to Trump officials last week, a group of lawmakers led by Representatives Doris Matsui of California and Brad Schneider of Illinois wrote that “reckless tariffs” on medicines threatened to harm Americans.
“The supply disruptions of critical medical products will unavoidably hurt U.S. patients, force providers to make impossible rationing decisions, and potentially even result in death as treatments are delayed, or more effective medicines and products are swapped for less effective alternatives,” they wrote.
Kush Desai, a spokesman for the White House, said in a statement on Monday that “President Trump has long been clear about the importance of reshoring manufacturing that is critical to our country’s national and economic security.”
Targeting pharmaceuticals also risks further inflaming relations with allies like the European Union and India, whose economies are supported by drug exports to the United States. Officials of those countries fear that drug tariffs could prompt companies to renege on investments, resulting in a loss of jobs, factories and tax revenue.
Along with cars and electronics, pharmaceuticals are one of the categories of goods that the United States imports the most, measured by value.
Tariffs on drugs would add tens of billions of dollars of import costs for a powerful industry that relies on a complex global supply chain. Production of most medications consumed in the United States happens in more than one part of the world, with plants in different countries handling different stages of the process.
Expensive patented medications, like the popular weight-loss drug Wegovy, are more likely to be made in Europe or the United States.
China and India do most of the production of cheaper generic drugs, which account for the vast majority of U.S. prescriptions. For example, plants in those countries make nearly all of the world’s supply of the active ingredients in the painkiller ibuprofen and the antibiotic ciprofloxacin, according to Clarivate, an industry data provider.
Pharmaceuticals are the latest sector that Mr. Trump has targeted. Tariffs of 25 percent are already in effect for imported steel, aluminum and cars. The Trump administration has also initiated Section 232 investigations, or inquiries into national security concerns, for copper, lumber and computer chips.
Investigations under the 232 provision must be completed within nine months.
The drug industry has been lobbying the Trump administration to phase in tariffs gradually or to exempt certain types of products, such as medications at risk of shortages or those deemed essential, like antibiotics.
John Murphy III, the head of a trade group that represents manufacturers of generic drugs, said in a statement on Monday that tariffs “will only amplify the problems that already exist in the U.S. market for affordable medicines.”
The tariffs would be paid by drug companies importing products or ingredients into the United States. Many of those manufacturers would most likely try to pass at least some of the added costs to employers and government programs like Medicare and Medicaid that cover most of the tab for Americans’ prescription drugs. That would ultimately affect patients.
Levies could cause shortages of some cheaper generic drugs, because prices are so close to production costs. Manufacturers with such thin margins may be forced to curtail or end production.
Industry experts said they were not concerned about shortages for brand-name drugs, which generally have high profit margins that could absorb tariffs.
Patients whose insurance requires them to pay a deductible or a percentage of a drug’s price could eventually face higher out-of-pocket costs for some drugs. They may also have to pay a higher co-payment if shortages resulting from the tariffs force them to switch to a different, pricier medication. In future years, people could face higher health insurance premiums.
In some cases, contractual agreements and steep financial penalties may discourage manufacturers from sharply raising prices. With patented products, manufacturers typically have such large margins that their sales would still be highly profitable even if they absorbed the cost of tariffs.
David Ricks, the chief executive of Eli Lilly, told the BBC earlier this month that his company expected to eat the cost of tariffs. But Lilly could reduce its research spending or cut staffing as a result, he said.
Mr. Trump has been saying that his tariffs will prompt drugmakers to move their overseas production back to the United States. In recent weeks, several of the industry’s richest companies — Eli Lilly, Johnson & Johnson and Novartis — announced plans to spend billions of dollars to build new plants in the United States.
But experts say the tariffs aren’t nearly enough to bring most drug production back to the United States. The obstacles are especially steep with crucial generic drugs. Building a new plant takes years. Even shifting production to an existing American plant may be too costly. Labor and other production expenses are much higher in the United States.
Joaquin Duato, chief executive of Johnson & Johnson, said on a call with analysts on Tuesday that “if what you want is to build manufacturing capacity in the U.S., both in med-tech and in pharmaceuticals, the most effective answer is not tariffs, but tax policy.”
The Trump administration has been taking aim at Ireland, where nearly all of the largest American drugmakers have a manufacturing presence, in some cases dating back decades. One of Ireland’s biggest appeals for the industry is the tax advantages it offers. Some drugmakers shift their profits there to lower their overall tax bills.
Last month, Mr. Trump said that Ireland “took our pharmaceutical companies away.” Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, said that Ireland was running a “tax scam” that American pharmaceutical companies were exploiting. “That’s got to end,” Mr. Lutnick said.
Some of the industry’s biggest blockbusters, including the cancer drug Keytruda and the anti-wrinkle injection Botox, are partly produced in Ireland. The United States imports more pharmaceutical products, as measured by their value, from Ireland than any other country.
Irish officials fear that tariffs could prompt drugmakers to pull back from investments in the country. But experts said that drugmakers may be reluctant to undergo the costly, disruptive process of uprooting their operations there, especially while uncertainty persists about how long Mr. Trump’s tariffs will last.
Pharmaceuticals have historically been spared from tariffs under a World Trade Organization agreement meant to ensure that patients have access to vital medications.
Medications were mostly exempted from the round of global tariffs Mr. Trump announced earlier this month and then partly delayed for 90 days. Drugmakers importing from China into the United States have been subject to tariffs, initially 10 percent and later 20 percent, that Mr. Trump had imposed on Chinese imports earlier this year.
Ana Swanson contributed reporting.
Business
Fire survivors can use this new portal to rebuild faster and save money
People who lost homes in the Palisades and Eaton fires can now go online to pick vetted residential templates that could save them money and be ready as early as next year.
Builders Alliance, a nonprofit organization formed in response to the fires, on Friday launched a portal that offers survivors a selection of homes, filtered by lot size, price range and other preferences.
“We’re trying to create an ‘easy’ button for homeowners,” said Lew Horne, the chairman of Project Recovery, a group of academics and real estate industry experts who had created a road map for recovery.
Construction crews work on rebuilding a home and properties after the federal cleanup in Altadena on Sept. 10.
(Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)
Project Recovery’s March report — which was compiled by professors in the real estate graduate schools at USC and UCLA, along with the Los Angeles chapter of the Urban Land Institute, a real estate nonprofit education and research institute — said an alliance of builders could work together for economies of scale to speed up reconstruction and make it more affordable and predictable.
The web portal is the latest stop on the report’s road map. It makes it easy for those who lost their homes to choose among templates and pricing from builders who have been vetted by Project Recovery.
“We’re keeping a close eye” on the builders, Horne said. “Buyers are going to have a quality home at a quality price in a time frame they can count on.”
Horne is head of the Los Angeles chapter of the Urban Land Institute and president of real estate brokerage CBRE for Southern California. Other leaders of Project Recovery include Stuart Gabriel, director of the UCLA Ziman Center for Real Estate, and Richard Green, director of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
Homeowners using the portal can match their address to home choices that include pre-designed turnkey residences at costs equal to or below average insurance proceeds, Horne said. Owners can also choose more custom builds.
The new Builders Alliance consists of 10 licensed homebuilders, ranging in size from small boutique firms to larger companies such as Richmond American Homes and Brookfield Residential.
Brookfield built more than 200 homes in the La Vina gated community in Altadena, 52 of which burned down, Chief Executive Adrian Foley said.
“Obviously, we were devastated by all of the loss that’s taken place here,” he said. “We wanted to lean in and do anything we could to help out.”
Foley said the consortium was devised to get large and small builders working together to “procure the right material costs and procure plans and specifications that would be appealing to the end user so we could collaborate to beat down costs, be more efficient, and hopefully drive a higher percentage of rebuilding.”
The consortium expects to complete some homes by the third quarter of 2026.
The foundation of the Builders Alliance portal is a digital representation that maps every residential parcel in the Palisades and Eaton fire areas. It uses AI technology and is powered by Canibuild, which provides site-planning software for the residential construction industry.
The portal’s map is trained on local zoning regulations and pairs each lot with extensive menus of designs and costs. Property owners enter their address and can filter options by preferences such as square footage, bedrooms, bathrooms and price.
Business
McDonald’s is losing its low-income customers. Economists call it a symptom of the stark wealth divide
In the early 2000s, after a severe slump, McDonald’s orchestrated a major turnaround, with the introduction of its Dollar Menu.
The menu, where all items cost $1, illustrated just how important it was to market to low-income consumers — who value getting the most bang for their buck.
Coming at a time of flagging growth, tumbling stock and the company’s first report of a quarterly loss, the Dollar Menu reversed the fast food giant’s bad fortune. It paved the way for three years of sales growth at stores open at least a year and ballooned revenue by 33%, news outlets reported at the time.
But no longer.
Prices have risen so high at the iconic fast food chain that traffic from one of its core customer bases, low-income households, has dropped by double digits, McDonald’s chief executive Christopher Kempczinski told investors last week. Meanwhile, traffic from higher-earners increased by nearly as much, he said.
The struggle of the Golden Arches — long synonymous with cheap food for the masses — reflects a larger trend upending the consumer economy and making “affordability” a hot policy topic.
McDonald’s executives say the higher costs of restaurant essentials, such as beef and salaries, have pushed food prices up and driven away lower-income customers who are already being squeezed by the rising cost of groceries, clothes, rent and child care.
With prices for everything rising, consumer companies concerned about the pressures on low-income Americans include food, automotive and airline businesses, among others, said analyst Adam Josephson. “The list goes on and on,” he said.
“Happy Meals at McDonald’s are prohibitively expensive for some people, because there’s been so much inflation,” Josephson said.
Josephson and other economists say the shrinking traffic of low-income consumers is emblematic of a larger trend of Americans diverging in their spending, with wealthier customers flexing their purchasing power and lower-income shoppers pulling back — what some call a “K-shaped economy.”
A recent earnings report from Delta offers yet another illustration. While Delta’s main cabin revenue fell 5% for the June quarter compared to a year ago, premium ticket sales rose 5%, highlighting the divide between affluent customers and those forced to be more economical.
At hotel chains, luxury brands are holding up better than low budget options. Revenue at brands including Four Seasons, Ritz-Carlton and St. Regis is up 2.9% so far this year, while economy hotels saw a 3.1% decline for the same period, according to industry tracker CoStar.
“There are examples everywhere you look,” Josephson said.
Consumer credit delinquency rates show just how much low-income households are hurting, with households that make less than $45,000 annually seeing “huge year-over-year increases,” even as delinquency rates for high- and middle-income households have flattened and stabilized, said Rikard Bandebo, chief strategy officer and chief economist at VantageScore.
After COVID-19-related stimulus programs ended, these households were the first to see dramatically increased delinquency rates, and haven’t seen a dip in delinquencies since 2022, according to data from VantageScore on 60-day past-due delinquencies from January 2020 to September 2025. And although inflation has come down from its peak in 2022, people are still struggling with relatively higher prices and “astronomical” rent increases, Bandebo said.
A report released this year by researchers with Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University found that half of all renters, 22.6 million people, were cost-burdened in 2023, meaning they spent more than 30% of their income on housing and utilities, up 3.2 percentage points since 2019 and 9 percentage points since 2001. Twenty-seven percent of renters are severely burdened, spending more than 50% of their income on housing.
As rents have grown, the amount families have left over after paying for housing and utilities has fallen to record lows. In 2023, renters with annual household incomes under $30,000 had a median of just $250 per month in residual income to spend on other needs, an amount that’s fallen 55% since 2001, with the steepest declines since the pandemic, according to the Harvard study.
“It’s getting tougher and tougher every month for low-income households to make ends meet,” Bandebo said.
Prices at limited-service restaurants, which include fast-food restaurants, are up 3.2% year over year, at a rate higher than inflation “and that’s climbing” said Marisa DiNatale, an economist at Moody’s Analytics.
On top of that, price increases due to tariffs disproportionately affect lower-income households, because they spend a greater portion of their income on goods rather than services, which are not directly impacted by tariffs. Wages too, are stagnating more for these households compared to higher- and middle-income households, DiNatale said.
“It has always been the case that more well-off people have done better. But a lot of the economic and policy headwinds are disproportionately affecting lower-income households, and [McDonald’s losing low-income customers] is a reflection of that,” DiNatale said.
It makes sense, then, that any price increases would hit these consumers hard.
According to a corporate fact sheet, from 2019 to 2024, the average cost of a McDonald’s menu item rose 40%. The average price of a Big Mac in 2019, for example, was $4.39, rising in 2024 to $5.29, according to the company. A 10-piece McNuggets Meal rose from $7.19 to $9.19 in the same time period.
The company says these increases are in line with the costs of running a restaurant — including soaring labor costs and high prices of beef and other goods.
Beef prices have skyrocketed, with inventory of the U.S. cattle herd at the lowest in 75 years due to the toll of drought and parasites. And exports of beef bound to the U.S. are down because of Trump’s trade war and tariffs. As a result, the prices of ground beef sold in supermarkets is up 13% in September, year over year.
McDonald’s has also placed blame on the meat-packing industry, accusing it of maneuvering to artificially inflate prices in a lawsuit filed last year against the industry’s “Big Four” companies — Tyson, JBS, Cargill and the National Beef Packing Company.
The companies have denied wrongdoing, and paid tens of millions of dollars to settle multiple lawsuits alleging price-fixing.
However, McDonald’s chief financial officer Ian Borden said on the recent earnings call that the company has managed to keep expenses from getting out of control.
“I think the strength of our supply chain means our beef costs are, I think, certainly up less than most,” he said.
McDonald’s did not disclose how the company gauges the income levels of their customers but businesses often analyze the market area they serve by estimating the background of their customers based on where they are shopping and what they are buying.
In California, the debate around fast food prices has centered on labor costs, with legislation going into effect last year raising the minimum wage for fast-food workers at chains with more than 60 locations nationwide.
But more than a year after fast-food wages were boosted, the impact is still being debated, with economists divided and the fast-food industry and unions sparring over its impact.
Fast-food restaurant owners as well as trade associations like the International Franchise Assn., which spearheaded an effort to block the minimum wage boost, have said businesses have been forced to trim employee hours, institute hiring freezes or lay people off to offset the cost of higher wages.
Meanwhile, an analysis by researchers at UC Berkeley’s Center on Wage and Employment Dynamics of some 2,000 restaurants found the $20 wage did not reduce fast-food employment, and “led to minimal menu price increases” of about 8 cents on a $4 burger.”
Labor groups have also argued that minimum wage increases give workers more purchasing power, helping to stimulate the economy.
McDonald’s said last year that spending by the company on restaurant worker salaries had grown around 40% since 2019, while costs for food, paper and other goods were up 35%.
The success of its Dollar Menu in the early 2000s was remarkable because it had come amid complaints of the chain’s highly processed, high-calorie and high-fat products, food safety concerns and worker exploitation.
As the company marketed the Dollar Menu, which included the double cheeseburger, the McChicken sandwich, french fries, a hot fudge sundae and a 16-ounce soda, it also added healthier options to its regular menu, including salads and fruit.
But the healthier menu items did not drive the turnaround. The $1 double cheeseburgers brought in far more revenue than salads or the chicken sandwiches, which were priced in the $3 to $4.50 range.
“The Dollar Menu appeals to lower-income, ethnic consumers,” said Steve Levigne, vice president for United States business research at McDonald’s, told the New York Times in 2006. “It’s people who don’t always have $6 in their pocket.”
The Dollar Menu eventually became unsustainable, however. With inflation driving up prices, McDonald’s stores, particularly franchisee locations, struggled to afford it, and by November 2013 rebranded it as the “Dollar Menu & More” with prices up to $5.
Last year, McDonald’s took a stab at appealing to cash-stretched customers with a $5 deal for a McDouble or McChicken sandwich, small fries, small soft drink and four-piece McNuggets. And in January it rolled out a deal offering a $1 menu item alongside an item bought for full price, with an ad starring John Cena, and launched Extra Value Meals in early September — offering combos costing 15% less than ordering each of the items separately.
The marketing didn’t seem to immediately cut through to customers, with McDonald’s in May reporting U.S. same-store sales in the recent quarter declined 3.6% from the year before. However, in its recent third-quarter earnings, the company reported a 2.4% lift in sales, even as its chief executive sounded the alarm about the increasingly two-tiered economy.
That other businesses, too, are reviving deals is a sign of the times. San Francisco-based burger chain Super Duper promoted its “recession combo” on social media. For $10, customers get fries, a drink and a “recession burger” at one of the chain’s 19 California locations.
What’s clear is companies are wary of passing along higher costs to customers, said DiNatale, of Moody’s Analytics.
“A lot of businesses are saying, we just don’t think consumers will stand for this,” DiNatale said. “[Consumers] have been through years of higher prices, and there’s just very little tolerance for higher prices going forward.”
Business
In Altadena, a woman is racing to buy land for her business that burned, before developers get it
Shelene Hearring is sprinting against big developers to try to buy a slice of Altadena on Lake Avenue, a part of the unincorporated town she sees as crucial to the community’s identity.
Hearring, who ran Two Dragon Martial Arts Studio for 18 years on Lake Avenue, placed a bid to buy the land after her studio burned down in the Eaton fire in January. The bid was accepted by the landowner this week, and Hearring notified the community that she has until Nov. 25 to raise $600,000 to secure the property.
“We want to maintain the sense of community that we used to have,” Hearring said. “Last week big businesses were looking to buy it up. I said no, we gotta have something for our community. We want to get back to where we used to be.”
Hearring’s case is one of the few instances, and possibly the only one, of an Altadena small business owner attempting to buy property they once rented by launching a GoFundMe campaign. When she learned the property was being sold, she realized developers were putting in offers. Now she’s hoping the community will support her efforts to stay in Altadena, as many residents fear the culture and fabric will change as more families move out and developers swoop in.
Across Altadena, the Eaton fire destroyed about 9,000 structures. Among them was the Two Dragon Martial Arts Studio, which one of Hearring’s family members photographed going up in flames. Today the lot has been cleared of debris and sits empty. It’s one of many Black-owned businesses lost in the fire.
The property at 2490 N. Lake Ave. had housed Hearring’s martial arts studio, a nail salon and other businesses. Before that the building had been the Altadena sheriff’s station, making it a community landmark, she said.
Hearring, who grew up in Altadena, also lost the home she was renting, forcing her to bounce from hotel to hotel until she found stable housing in Arcadia. As soon as she could, she started teaching classes outside at a park to maintain a sense of normalcy, until she secured a space to teach in Altadena. That effort, helped by a fundraising campaign, allowed her to keep paying staff and pay down loans she took out to keep the business afloat during the pandemic.
Altadena has been flooded by investors buying up properties. Melissa Michelson, co-founder and lead organizer of the Altadena Not for Sale movement, is tracking what’s listed, bought and sold. So far, of the 289 properties that have been sold, 168 were bought by limited liability investors and private equity firms, as opposed to 93 purchased by individuals, she said.
“The vultures are out there swarming,” Michelson said, referring to developers and investors looking to turn a profit following the devastation. “They’re not going away.”
Among the more prominent buyers has been Altadena local Edwin Castro, who won a $2-billion Powerball lottery jackpot in 2022 and has been purchasing empty lots under Black Lion Properties LLC, spending $10 million on 15 lots, according to the Wall Street Journal. Castro told the Journal he wants to lead the rebuilding effort in Altadena and intends to sell to families.
‘The vultures are out there swarming.’
— Melissa Michelson, co-founder and lead organizer of the Altadena Not for Sale movement, referring to developers buying up lots.
Michelson’s group began selling and donating “Altadena Not for Sale” yard signs that now dot empty lots, standing homes and storefronts around town. The group also launched a petition to urge the state Legislature to create greater protections against corporations coming in and buying up properties in the disaster zone. So far the petition has gathered about 1,500 signatures. Another group, the Altadena Dining Club, formed to try to keep local eateries afloat amid a drop in foot traffic around town.
With Hearring’s studio, Michelson said it is exciting to see the community support a small business owner going up against real estate speculators. The homeowners who make up Altadena Not for Sale also are adamant about remaining in the area.
“This is really unprecedented that a community is coming together like this,” she said.
As of Friday, Hearring had raised about $73,000 online, a far cry from what she needs to purchase the lot. But she said she’s hopeful. She envisions a space not just for her studio, but one where nonprofit groups and young people can come together.
“If we don’t hold the fort down, there will be nothing to come back to,” Hearring said.
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