Business
The first trade war with China was a boon for Vietnam — what about now?
QUANG NINH, Vietnam — When Le Ngoc Tham became sales manager for a new industrial park in northern Vietnam, the goal was to turn it into an easy alternative for manufacturers leaving China to avoid the tariffs of the first U.S.-Sino trade war.
Three years later, with less than half of the 1,716-acre project completed, dozens of companies interested in leasing the land are having second thoughts. The source of hesitation is Trump’s latest tariffs, which, as announced earlier this month, included a 46% tax on imports from Vietnam, the country’s eighth-largest trading partner.
But even though Trump announced a 90-day temporary stay on the new duties on Wednesday, and the administration said late Friday that it would exclude certain electronics from “reciprocal” tariffs, Vietnam isn’t exactly in the clear.
Sales manager Le Ngoc Tram at Amata Industrial Park in Quang Ninh province, Vietnam.
A 46% tariff rate, which is higher than most other nations, would make Vietnam-made products noncompetitive in the U.S., its largest export market. Both buyers and producers of those goods would likely turn to countries facing lower rates, dragging down industrial activity and foreign investment in Vietnamese manufacturing.
“In the short term, that will be a hit to manufacturers,” said Le, who works for the Amata Corporation, an industrial real estate company based in Thailand. “So the question they ask us is: What are we going to do next?” While the owners of factories that have broken ground here have little recourse, about 40 companies that have inquired about building facilities are hitting pause — one-fifth of which were in the final stages of investment, she said.
Vietnam benefited substantially after Trump imposed tariffs on China in 2018, as companies producing goods for the U.S. there turned to Vietnam. In Quang Ninh province and the neighboring port city of Haiphong, the arrival of high-tech manufacturing, including Apple suppliers Pegatron and Foxconn, contributed to the country’s rapid industrial development and strong economic growth. In 2019, Vietnamese exports to the U.S. surged 35% compared to the previous year.
Now manufacturing accounts for more than one-fifth of Vietnam’s GDP and will be a critical driver in hitting the government’s 8% target rate for 2025. Trump’s protectionist approach to global trade, however, threatens to stymie the boom that powered Vietnam’s economic rise for the last decade.
On April 2, in what Trump dubbed “Liberation Day,” the president announced a sweeping 10% on global imports, in addition to what he called “reciprocal tariffs” that targeted countries with large trade deficits with the U.S. Vietnam was one of the hardest hit nations.
Days after the news, Vietnamese leader To Lam offered to cut its tariffs on American imports to zero if the U.S. did the same. He also asked Trump to delay the taxes by at least 45 days and invited Trump to visit Vietnam.
“If it really gets implemented like this, the impact is dramatic for the economy,” said Matthieu Francois, a partner at Delta West, a Ho Chi Minh City-based advisory firm that helps businesses expand in Vietnam. “This would cancel out the entirety of the growth of Vietnam right now.”
A factory belonging to Jinko Solar, a Chinese company, at Amata Industrial Park in Quang Ninh province, Vietnam.
On Wednesday, the day that tariffs were meant to take effect, Le’s clients still had little idea what to expect.
At Amata’s facilities, where companies make solar panels, electronics and car parts about 120 miles from China’s borders, workers continued to dig trenches around empty lots in preparation for the installation of utilities. Autoliv, a Swedish auto supplier, tested production lines at its new airbag factory slated to open in October.
“We are still monitoring the situation and observing the next stage, to have scenarios to protect ourselves,” Le said. “But we will find a way to live with the tariffs.”
Nearly all the goods manufactured at Amata’s industrial park in Quang Ninh are for export, with as much as 70% of them destined for the U.S.
If Trump goes ahead with the tariffs, Le said Vietnam could try to offset the impact by lowering corporate tax rates further, or offering more incentives for companies that invest in local factories.
Production manager Richard Nguyen at Swedish company Autoliv’s airbag production factory inside Amata Industrial Park, in Quang Ninh province, Vietnam.
China has retaliated against Trump’s tariffs by raising import duties on U.S. goods to 125%. But Vietnam has taken a more conciliatory approach, even before the latest round of tariffs was announced. The country has proposed increasing purchases of liquefied natural gas and airplanes from the U.S. to mitigate the trade imbalance.
The Vietnamese government has also supported construction of a $1.5-billion Trump Organization golf resort about an hour’s drive from Hanoi, and recently approved a trial of the Starlink satellite internet service by Elon Musk’s SpaceX.
“Vietnam is pragmatic and they’re flexible,” said Rich McClellan, a strategic advisor on policy and economic strategy in Vietnam. “They understand the transactional nature of the current administration in the U.S.”
Vietnam’s manufacturing industry began expanding in earnest in the 2000s, as the country’s low-cost, educated working class grew and the government prioritized producing goods for export. Trump’s 2018 tariffs on Chinese imports prompted manufacturers to seek production bases outside of China, many of them favoring Vietnam for its cheap labor and proximity to China. The shift accelerated when the COVID-19 pandemic caused additional disruptions to the global supply chain.
In a sign of strengthening economic and diplomatic ties, the U.S. and Vietnam established a new bilateral agreement in 2023 that pledged to deepen collaboration on policy and trade, including a $2-million investment from the U.S. in Vietnam’s growing semiconductor sector.
But as Vietnamese manufacturing has boomed, so has the nation’s trade surplus with the U.S., rising fourfold since 2015 to $123.5 billion last year. Trump has accused Vietnam of effectively taxing American goods at 90%.
“Vietnam is very clear that the development of their country goes hand in hand with economic growth, so they need to take actions to accommodate foreign investors,” said Bruno Jaspaert, chairman of the European Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam and chief executive of Deep C Industrial Zones, a Belgian industrial real estate developer. “If they can appease the U.S. and China, which so far they have been able to do, I believe they could come out a winner in these chaotic times.”
The first 21 years after it was established in Haiphong, Deep C attracted $1 billion in investment, Jaspaert said. In the past seven years, it’s attracted $7 billion.
Deep C general sales and marketing director Koen Soenens in his office in Haiphong in northeastern Vietnam.
When Koen Soenens joined Deep C in 2019, his orientation included a presentation with a photo of Trump, whose tariffs had become the impetus for more factories to invest in Vietnam. “The story behind that picture was actually very straightforward. He was at that time our best salesperson,” the company’s general sales and marketing director explained.
Six years later, that image is just as relevant to understanding the industry, but its significance has changed, he said: “[Trump] is the one who is backstabbing Vietnam.”
Since the tariffs on Vietnam were announced, Soenens has watched company executives react with devastation, disappointment and as of Thursday, hope. The three-month reprieve could give manufacturers time to reduce reliance on exports to the U.S. and assess the possibility of building factories in countries with lower tariff rates while Vietnam negotiates with the U.S.
An airbag production factory run by Swedish company Autoliv, at Amata Industrial Park in Quang Ninh province, Vietnam.
If the reciprocal tariffs take effect at the proposed rate, Vietnam will face the third-highest U.S. import duties in the world, after China and Cambodia. Trump postponed the 49% import duty on Cambodian goods Wednesday, but increased tariffs on China to 145%.
“It’s never going to go back to what it was before, that’s very obvious,” Soenens said. “The relocation from China to elsewhere continues, and then it will be a fight between Vietnam and some of the other countries.”
The rush to build factories in Vietnam has strained the country’s labor supply in recent years. For factories that need more than 100,000 workers, Vietnam is no longer an option, he added.
A slowdown in foreign investment could ease that strain and free up more resources, benefiting Vietnam-based manufacturers that aren’t subject to Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. For example, Soenens said auto parts manufacturers here are only subject to a global 25% tariff on exports to the U.S. He added that one Tesla supplier was optimistic the reciprocal tariffs could make local hiring easier for the company.
Another constraint in Vietnam’s industrial development is the country’s power grid, Soenens said, and its lag in accommodating renewable energy.
Tariffs aside, such bottlenecks threaten to derail Vietnam’s economic growth if left unresolved, said Francois of Delta West.
“It’s very likely the dominant theme of Vietnam going forward will be how to be more efficient, more productive,” Francois said. “This is the single focus of the Vietnamese strategy to keep growing.”
Business
Waymo reports teen riders for bad behavior and delivers them to the police
Robotaxis could be turning into robocops.
A self-driving Waymo reported two teens to San Mateo, Calif., police on Monday after they were found drinking alcohol and shooting toy guns in the back of the vehicle.
According to a social media post from the San Mateo Police Department, officers detained two 15-year-olds after the Waymo they were riding in contacted the department and stopped in a parking lot until law enforcement arrived.
“Parents do you know where your teens are?” the San Mateo Police Department wrote on Facebook following the incident. “Waymo does!”
Officers removed both teens from the vehicle and determined they were using toy guns to shoot Orbeez out the windows. Orbeez are small, water-absorbing beads sold at toy stores.
“Toy guns, water guns, and BB guns all pose real dangers, especially to an untrained eye,” the Police Department said. “The simple handling of them can cause fear in [passersby].” “
A video posted on Facebook shows at least five officers and a police dog responding to the scene and approaching the Waymo with their weapons raised.
Waymo did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Waymo vehicles have internal cameras and microphones that may be used in an emergency or to “promote safety and security,” according to Waymo’s online support page.
The cameras are also used to ensure the vehicles are clean and to help find lost items, according to the support page.
The company said it does not use facial recognition or other biometric identification technologies to identify individuals.
“In more urgent circumstances, support may access live video during a trip,” the Waymo page said.
The San Mateo Police Department’s Facebook post has garnered nearly 60 comments, with one user accusing Waymo of “snitching.”
“At least they got a designated driver?!” one user commented.
Business
Commentary: How right-wing anti-transgender attacks led to a Supreme Court ruling upholding sex discrimination
At the Supreme Court, the unfounded fear of boys masquerading as girls in youth sports rolled the clock back on gender equality.
On the surface, the Supreme Court’s June 30 opinion upholding state laws barring transgender girls from women’s and girl’s sports teams looks like a victory for women’s rights.
The 6-3 opinion by Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh certainly presents itself that way. “Females and males have inherent physical differences relevant to athletic performance,” Kavanaugh wrote. “Therefore, in contact sports, forcing female athletes to compete against males can create significant safety risks.” He also asserted that “forcing female athletes to compete against males can undermine competitive fairness.”
The ruling applied to prohibitions enacted in Idaho and West Virginia against “biological” males’ participation on women’s teams in public schools. Federal judges in both states overturned the bans. The Supreme Court majority restored them. The ruling essentially upholds similar bans enacted in 25 other states.
There was no record of any transgender person participating in school sports in the State, let alone any ‘problem’ with transgender students … creating unfair competition or unsafe conditions.
— Justice Sonia Sotomayor, demolishing the Supreme Court’s argument in favor of banning transgender girls from girl’s sports
Kavanaugh, like Donald Trump and others in the anti-transgender camp, maintained that one’s gender is an immutable fact of life, established even before birth.
Anything else, Trump stated in an executive order he issued on inauguration day 2025, could only be the product of “gender ideology extremism.” The U.S., his order stated, recognizes “two sexes, male and female. These sexes are not changeable and are grounded in fundamental and incontrovertible reality.” That’s a “biological truth,” he declared.
In his own version of this overconfident and factually insupportable conclusion, Kavanaugh wrote: “As all agree, females and males have inherent physical differences relevant to athletic performance.”
Science recognizes that some people are “born with sex traits that don’t fit into typical male or female patterns,” to cite a discussion on the Cleveland Clinic web page on the topic “intersex.” The condition “may involve chromosomes, hormones, reproductive organs or genitals.”
From a psychological standpoint, medical science recognizes “gender dysphoria” as a real condition often requiring counseling and medical intervention such as the use of puberty blockers and hormones to stave off the development of secondary sex characteristics until the condition can be resolved.
No one disputes that there are physical differences between the sexes. Few would dispute that on average or even at the median, males may be bigger and more powerful than females, or that in certain contact sports the difference may be telling and on occasion dangerous.
But that’s not the same as asserting that the physical differences between males and females invariably mean that men will invariably prevail over women in all competitions or that their participation will endanger women.
The International Olympic Committee — in a policy statement Kavanaugh cited incompletely — says that in “most running and swimming events,” males have a 10% to 12% advantage over women. That’s a range that would accommodate the full spectrum of outcomes — transgender females win, cisfemales win, they tie. (The “cis” prefix denotes those living consistent with their birth gender.)
West Virginia and Idaho addressed this ambiguity by banning transgender women from all girls’ teams. So under their rules transgender girls can’t play football or soccer with cisgirls. But what’s the argument in favor of banning them from the 100-yard dash, or cross-country track, or diving, or archery?
But something else is going on here. The Supreme Court’s ruling was almost preordained, given the years-long campaign by conservatives to demonize transgender individuals as if they’re members of an alien species.
It will be recalled that during his presidential campaign, Trump spun a despicable fantasy in which children were kidnapped in school and secretly subjected to sex-change operations.
Trump’s executive order wiped out policies aimed at protecting transgender adults from discrimination. He moved to outlaw gender-affirming medical therapies for anyone under 19 by cutting off federal funding for healthcare institutions that provide such care.
He banned transgender individuals from serving in the military and ordered federal prison officials to move transgender inmates into the general populations consistent with their birth genders, which exposes them to physical assault. (Federal Judge Royce Lamberth of Washington, D.C., has blocked the government from transferring three transgender women into the male prison population or terminating their hormone treatments.)
I wrote during Trump’s first term, when his anti-transgender policies were still gestating, that the goal was to show that “one can target any community, as long as it doesn’t have a strong political voice or political power. These are the actions of bullies and cowards, pretending to be strong.”
Last year, the Supreme Court struck its first blow against transgender rights by upholding a Tennessee law banning transgender care, including puberty blockers and hormone therapy, for minors. Similar laws have been enacted in 25 other states. The majority in that ruling by Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. was identical to the one in the June 30 ruling — Roberts, Kavanaugh, and Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel A. Alito Jr., Neil M. Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett.
Who are the targets of this ideological campaign? They number only about 1.6 million U.S. adults, or one-half of 1% of the U.S. population. About 300,000 adolescents ages 13 to 17, or 1.4%, identify as transgender, according to a study by UCLA School of Law.
In West Virginia, as Justice Sonia Sotomayor observed in her dissenting opinion, “there was no record of any transgender person participating in school sports in the State, let along any ‘problem’ with transgender students … creating unfair competition or unsafe conditions.”
In endorsing the flat bans directed at transgender women in Idaho and West Virginia, Kavanaugh argued that any attempt to implement case-by-case judgments of students’ requests to join sports teams inconsistent with their biological gender would create “an enormous practical and administrability problem.”
Is that so? That wasn’t the case in Maine, where the annual K-12 population is more than 170,000. There, a committee was charged with determining whether a student’s participation in a sport consistent with their gender identity but inconsistent with their biological sex would “result in an unfair athletic advantage” or present a risk of injury to others. The committee held 56 hearings from 2013 through 2021, or an average of seven per year. During the entire time span, only four involved transgender girls. (The outcome of those hearings couldn’t be learned.)
It was Maine’s policy, one might recall, that provoked a confrontation between Trump and Maine Gov. Janet Mills at the White House last year, when Trump threatened to withhold federal funding from the state unless it barred transgender students from competing on women’s sports teams. “We’ll see you in court,” Mills snapped.
Whether the Idaho and West Virginia laws genuinely protect girls from unfair competition is questionable. (The Idaho law is styled the “Fairness in Women’s Sports Act.”) In practice, the laws may subject women in public schools to “invasive sex verification procedures,” as educational expert George Theoharis of Syracuse University wrote after the court ruling.
They’re also based on a retrograde view of women as fragile creatures needing men’s protection, Theoharis wrote — “the same logic that has historically been used to justify excluding women from making their own healthcare decisions and girls from rigorous math and science; that physically demanding work is simply beyond them.” (There don’t appear to be any state laws barring transgender women from competing in men’s sports.)
Becky Pepper-Jackson, the plaintiff in the West Virginia case, in which she is identified only as B.P.J., is the only transgender girl who sought to join girl’s teams — track and cross-country — in the state. That was in 2021, just after West Virginia passed its law and she was about to enter sixth grade. She didn’t appear to pose any competitive risk to others on the track and cross-country teams she applied to join — her lawyers told the Supreme Court that on those no-cut teams, she “came in near the back.”
Anyway, she had not gone through male puberty, which theoretically might have endowed her with a competitive advantage, because she had been taking puberty blockers and female hormones.
Thanks to the court’s ruling, Sotomayor observed in a dissent joined by Justices Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson, West Virginia can deny Becky access to school sports “because it thinks they have an inherent athletic advantage, even if the facts show that they do not.”
B.P.J., Sotomayor wrote, “cannot practice on girls’ teams, even if she would not take anyone’s spot in an eventual competition, even if everyone who tries out for the team makes it, and even if having the chance to participate could aid immensely in treating B. P. J.’s gender dysphoria.”
So whose interest was really protected by the Supreme Court?
Business
Orange County real estate investor pleads not guilty in $100 million bank fraud case
An Orange County real estate investor accused of criminally defrauding an Arizona bank of nearly $100 million pleaded not guilty Monday and remains in custody.
Mahender Makhijani, 44, of Corona del Mar — who also was ordered by an arbitrator to pay $1.34 billion in a separate civil fraud case — was arraigned in Santa Ana federal court on two charges.
He is accused of bank fraud and making a false statement to a bank in a June 8 case involving a $100 million real estate loan made by Phoenix-based Western Alliance Bank. He was taken into custody on June 10.
Makhijani is accused of providing bogus collateral for the October 2024 loan now in default. In a civil lawsuit, Western Alliance said the outstanding balance as nearly $99 million.
Prosecutors say he falsified title insurance policies that showed the bank would have a first lien on the underlying collateral if the loan went bad, when in fact it did not.
A trial was set for August 11 before U.S. District Judge David O. Carter in Santa Ana.
Michael Schachter, his criminal defense attorney, did not respond to messages seeking comment.
In the civil case, an arbitrator in May ordered Makhijani to pay Laguna Beach real estate mogul Mohammad Honarkar $1.34 billion after ruling he had fraudulently induced him into a 2021 joint venture — and then wrested control and lost to creditors more than two dozen properties Honarkar had owned.
Makhijani has not been criminally charged in that case, but prosecutors alleged in an affidavit in support of the bank fraud charges that he used “force and threats” in his dealings with Honarkar and others — including taking over the landmark Hotel Laguna in 2023 that Honarkar was renovating.
Prosecutors sought to hold Makhijani without bail after his arrest.
The affidavit noted he is a legal Indian immigrant with a home and bank accounts in that country, has access to private jets and threatened to “run away” if caught in a difficult situation.
The request was denied and he was granted $500,000 bail.
However, Makhijani remains in custody after a hearing sought by prosecutors last month before Magistrate Judge Autumn Spaeth.
The judge declined to accept a $450,000 cashier’s check submitted by a Makhijani associate for the bail, finding insufficient proof the source of the funds was legitimate, according to court records.
Makhijani is not prominent outside Orange County real estate circles, but he established a thriving distressed-assets business over the last decade that attracted prominent Southern California real estate investors.
Prosecutors said it paid for a lifestyle that included two multimillion-dollar homes in Corona del Mar, a luxury apartment in Newport Beach and various luxury vehicles.
As of last month, prosecutors had not fully traced his assets, which they believe are not held in his name and some of which may be in India.
The businessman employed an array of shell companies and strawmen to sign documents on his behalf, and to stand in for him as operators of his companies, according to the affidavit.
Makhijani told an associate he took extra precautions because wanted to insulate himself from litigation and that “they were sharks in the distressed world who took advantage of people,” the affidavit stated.
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