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Stock Market Rally on Pause as Investors Take Cue from the Fed

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Stock Market Rally on Pause as Investors Take Cue from the Fed

Last week, the Federal Reserve held off raising interest rates after 10 increases in a row, instead waiting to assess how the economy has responded to the sharp rise in rates so far. This week, stock investors also paused for reflection, putting the recent rally on hold until the outlook becomes clearer.

The S&P 500 is headed for its first weekly decline since early May, which would end the index’s longest streak of gains since 2021. The S&P 500 has risen roughly 14 percent this year, and more than 20 percent since hitting its low point in October last year, crossing a technical threshold for the start of a bull market, a term used by Wall Street to describe a period of investing enthusiasm. This week’s fall is set to shave off just 0.6 percent from those gains.

Stocks of smaller companies more exposed to the risk of a slump in the U.S. economy fell further. The Russell 2000 index, which tracks these domestically focused companies, has fallen every day this week and wracked up a loss of 1.5 percent through Thursday. It is on course for its worst week in three months.

A more cautious, subdued tone to the past week’s trading reflected the message delivered by Fed officials: More rate increases may be necessary, further raising costs for consumers and companies, but they will be guided by signals from the economy in upcoming data releases on inflation, jobs and other indicators. Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said during congressional testimony on Thursday that “the data will tell us what to do” on future rate increases.

In other words, both Fed policymakers and investors are waiting for more information to decide whether interest rates will continue to rise, which will guide how the stock market reacts.

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“Markets and the Fed are looking at the same data and having the same thoughts,” said Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. “They haven’t often been on the same page this year.”

Last week, the Fed acknowledged that the economy had proved more resilient than expected as the central bank attempted to slow it down, and cool inflation as a result. This week, investors appeared to acknowledge that the economy’s strength may warrant higher rates: For months, investors have questioned the Fed’s resolve to keep raising rates, helping propel stocks upward.

Investor bets on the number of rate increases by the Fed this year are nudging higher, with investors now expecting one more quarter-point increase by the end of the year. That is still less than policymakers’ own forecast, which calls for two increases this year, but it’s closer than it has been in the past: Until recently, investors thought the Fed might cut rates at the end of the year.

The remaining disagreement, some investors say, stems from the caution that some Fed officials have expressed about the outlook. Raphael Bostic, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, had supported previous rate increases. But this week, he said that he expected to hold rates where they are now through the end of the year.

Elsewhere, other central banks continued their rate-raising campaigns this week, with the Bank of England and Norway’s Norges Bank surprising investors with bigger-than-expected moves.

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Lauren Goodwin, an economist at New York Life Investments, said that the market and the Fed “have arrived at the same interpretation of the world,” which warrants a wait-and-see approach. What happens next depends on how quickly inflation falls, and “the pace of disinflation has been so uncertain so far,” she said.

Jeanna Smialek contributed reporting.

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On TikTok, Users Thumb Their Noses at Looming Ban

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On TikTok, Users Thumb Their Noses at Looming Ban

Over the last week, the videos started appearing on TikTok from users across the United States.

They all made fun of the same thing: how the app’s ties to China made it a national security threat. Many implied that their TikTok accounts had each been assigned an agent of the Chinese government to spy on them through the app — and that the users would miss their personal spies.

“May we meet again in another life,” one user wrote in a video goodbye set to Whitney Houston’s cover of Dolly Parton’s “I Will Always Love You.” The video included an A.I.-generated image of a Chinese military officer.

The videos were just one way that some of TikTok’s 170 million monthly U.S. users were reacting as they prepared for the app to disappear from the country as soon as Sunday.

The Supreme Court is set to rule on a federal law that required TikTok’s Chinese owner, ByteDance, to sell the app by Jan. 19 or face a ban in the United States. U.S. officials have said China could use TikTok to harvest Americans’ private data and spread covert disinformation. TikTok, which has said a sale is impossible and challenged the law, is now awaiting the Supreme Court’s response.

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The possibility that the justices will uphold the law has set off a palpable sense of grief and dark humor across the app. Some users have posted videos suggesting ways to circumvent a ban with technological workarounds. Others have downloaded another Chinese app, Xiaohongshu, also known as “Red Note,” to thumb their noses at the U.S. government’s concerns about TikTok’s ties to China.

The videos highlight the collision taking place online between the law, which Congress passed with wide support last year, and everyday users of TikTok, who are dismayed that the app may soon disappear.

“Much of my TikTok feed now is TikTokers ridiculing the U.S. government, TikTokers thanking their Chinese spy as a form of ridicule,” said Anupam Chander, a professor of law and technology at Georgetown University and an expert on the global regulation of new technologies. “TikTokers recognize that they are not likely to be manipulated by anyone. They are actually quite sophisticated about the information they’re receiving.”

TikTok declined to comment on the users’ references to its ties to China.

Some users are not willing to give up the app — or their supposed spies — so easily.

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Hundreds of TikTok videos over the last week have cataloged how teenagers could keep using the app in the United States, according to a review by The New York Times. One of the most popular methods described is the use of a VPN, or a virtual private network, which can mask a user’s location and make it appear that the person is elsewhere.

“They can’t actually ban TikTok in the U.S. because VPNs are not banned,” Sasha Casey, a TikTok user, said in a recent video that was liked over 60,000 times. “Use a VPN. And send a picture to Congress while you do it, because that’s what I’ll be doing.”

While VPNs can make it appear that a phone, a laptop or another electronic device is in a remote location, it is not clear if the technology can circumvent the ban. A device’s real location is stored in many places, including in the app store that was used to download TikTok.

TikTok fans also seem to be behind the sudden surge in popularity for Xiaohongshu, the most downloaded free app on Tuesday and Wednesday in the U.S. Apple Store. Hundreds of millions of people in China use the app, which, like TikTok, features short videos and text-based posts. Xiaohongshu means “little red book” in Mandarin.

Mr. Chander anticipates that the Supreme Court will uphold the ban law this week, though he believes that TikTok has the winning case. He said the downloads of Red Note and the Chinese spy memes showed that many Americans did not agree with their government’s security concerns, particularly at the expense of free speech.

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“When the United States shutters a massive free expression service, which our democratic allies have not shuttered, it will make us the censor and put us in the unusual position of silencing expression,” Mr. Chander said. “It will make Americans who use TikTok really distrustful of the U.S. government as carrying their best interests.”

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Edison stock turns volatile as growing blame for wildfires lands on the power company

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Edison stock turns volatile as growing blame for wildfires lands on the power company

Southern California’s catastrophic fires have rocked the stock of Edison International, the parent company of Southern California Edison, as accusations and lawsuits about the utility’s potential role in starting the fires mount.

Shares of Edison International closed up 5% at $61.30 on Wednesday after plunging 23% this month, making it one of the worst performers on the Standard & Poor’s 500. The rebound came after Ladenburg Thalmann analysts upgraded their rating of the stock to neutral from sell, saying that their target price of $56.50 a share reflected worst-case outcomes associated with the current wildfires.

“At this time, it is too early to discern what the outcomes will be with respect to the impact of the fires on the California Wildfire Insurance Fund solvency and/or the future earnings of Edison International,” the analysts wrote, according to Barron’s. “An initial assessment of SCE’s role in the start of the fires will likely not occur until the summer of 2025 at the earliest.”

State lawmakers established the wildfire fund in the wake of wildfires several years ago after Wall Street investors lost confidence and ratings agencies threatened to downgrade California’s investor-owned utilities.

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Market analyst Zacks downgraded Edison International stock from outperform to neutral after the fires started last week. Zacks predicted Edison’s operating revenue would increase during 2025 and 2026, while acknowledging that “the company has been incurring significant wildfire-related costs” and that “higher-than-expected decommissioning costs could materially impact the company’s operating results.”

RBC Capital Markets, another analyst, had a loftier view of Edison as recently as October when it called the utility “a high quality operator, with investor confidence around wildfire risk improving from best in class mitigation efforts.”

The fallout from the fires is an abrupt disruption for a company that had been surging in recent months. In its most recent quarterly report, the company posted a profit of $516 million, or $1.33 per share, compared with $155 million, or 40 cent per share, in the third quarter of last year.

“Our team has achieved remarkable success over the last several years managing unprecedented climate challenges, making our operations more resilient and positioning us strongly for the growth ahead,” President Pedro J. Pizarro said in the report.

Fire agencies are investigating whether downed Southern California Edison utility equipment played a role in igniting the 800-acre Hurst fire near Sylmar, company officials have acknowledged.

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The company issued a report Friday saying that a downed conductor was discovered at a tower in the vicinity of the Hurst fire, but that it “does not know whether the damage observed occurred before or after the start of the fire.” The fire is nearly fully contained, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection.

SCE is also under scrutiny for possibly being involved in sparking the Eaton fire that has burned 14,000 acres and destroyed thousands of structures, wiping out whole swaths of Altadena, where at least 16 people died in the blaze.

On Tuesday the Newport Beach law firm of Bridgford, Gleason & Artinian filed a mass action complaint in Los Angeles Superior Court against SCE regarding the Eaton fire on behalf of victims including Jeremy Gursey, whose Altadena property was destroyed in the fire.

“Based upon our investigation, our discussions with various consultants, the public statements of SCE, and the video evidence of the fire’s origin, we believe that the Eaton Fire was ignited because of SCE’s failure to de-energize its overhead wires which traverse Eaton Canyon—despite a red flag PDS wind warning issued by the national weather service the day before the ignition of the fire,” lawyer Richard Bridgford said in a statement.

The firm said it has represented more than 10,000 California fire victims in past suits against Pacific Gas & Electric Co. and SCE. Bridgford told Yahoo Finance that his inbox is full of Southern California residents seeking to participate in the Eaton fire lawsuit and that he anticipates “there’ll be hundreds joining.”

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The most extreme level of a red flag fire warning, a “particularly dangerous situation,” returned to parts of Los Angeles and Ventura counties Wednesday morning, heightening concerns about the potential for new fires.

“The danger has not yet passed,” Los Angeles Fire Department Chief Kristin Crowley said during a news conference Wednesday. “So please prioritize your safety.”

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Albania Gives Jared Kushner Hotel Project a Nod as Trump Returns

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Albania Gives Jared Kushner Hotel Project a Nod as Trump Returns

The government of Albania has given preliminary approval to a plan proposed by Jared Kushner, Donald J. Trump’s son-in-law, to build a $1.4 billion luxury hotel complex on a small abandoned military base off the coast of Albania.

The project is one of several involving Mr. Trump and his extended family that directly involve foreign government entities that will be moving ahead even while Mr. Trump will be in charge of foreign policy related to these same nations.

The approval by Albania’s Strategic Investment Committee — which is led by Prime Minister Edi Rama — gives Mr. Kushner and his business partners the right to move ahead with accelerated negotiations to build the luxury resort on a 111-acre section of the 2.2-square-mile island of Sazan that will be connected by ferry to the mainland.

Mr. Kushner and the Albanian government did not respond Wednesday to requests for comment. But when previously asked about this project, both have said that the evaluation is not being influenced by Mr. Kushner’s ties to Mr. Trump or any effort to try to seek favors from the U.S. government.

“The fact that such a renowned American entrepreneur shows his interest on investing in Albania makes us very proud and happy,” a spokesman for Mr. Rama said last year in a statement to The New York Times when asked about the projects.

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Mr. Kushner’s Affinity Partners, a private equity company backed with about $4.6 billion in money mostly from Saudi Arabia and other Middle East sovereign wealth funds, is pursuing the Albania project along with Asher Abehsera, a real-estate executive that Mr. Kushner has previously teamed up with to build projects in Brooklyn, N.Y.

The Albanian government, according to an official document recently posted online, will now work with their American partners to clear the proposed hotel site of any potential buried munitions and to examine any other environmental or legal concerns that need to be resolved before the project can move ahead.

The document, dated Dec. 30, notes that the government “has the right to revoke the decision,” depending on the final project negotiations.

Mr. Kushner’s firm has said the plan is to build a five-star “eco-resort community” on the island by turning a “former military base into a vibrant international destination for hospitality and wellness.”

Ivanka Trump, Mr. Trump’s daughter, has said she is helping with the project as well. “We will execute on it,” she said about the project, during a podcast last year.

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This project is just one of two major real-estate deals that Mr. Kushner is pursuing along with Mr. Abehsera that involve foreign governments.

Separately, the partnership received preliminary approval last year to build a luxury hotel complex in Belgrade, Serbia, in the former ministry of defense building, which has sat empty for decades after it was bombed by NATO in 1999 during a war there.

Serbia and Albania have foreign policy matters pending with the United States, as both countries seek continued U.S. support for their long-stalled efforts to join the European Union, and officials in Washington are trying to convince Serbia to tighten ties with the United States, instead of Russia.

Virginia Canter, who served as White House ethics lawyer during the Obama and Clinton administrations and also an ethics adviser to the International Monetary Fund, said even if there was no attempt to gain influence with Mr. Trump, any government deal involving his family creates that impression.

“It all looks like favoritism, like they are providing access to Kushner because they want to be on the good side of Trump,” Ms. Canter said, now with State Democracy Defenders Fund, a group that tracks federal government corruption and ethics issues.

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