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Pepsico Cuts Growth Forecast Amid Tariffs and Slowed Consumer Spending

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Pepsico Cuts Growth Forecast Amid Tariffs and Slowed Consumer Spending

Consumers, worried about the economy, are pulling back on their spending, and that anxiety is translating into lower sales and profits for some of the country’s largest consumer-oriented companies.

On Thursday, PepsiCo cut its full-year guidance outlook, citing a reduction in consumer spending as well as the impact the company is feeling from increased global tariffs.

“Relative to where we were three months ago, we probably aren’t feeling as good about the consumer now,” Jamie Caulfield, the chief financial officer of PepsiCo, told Wall Street analysts and investors on an earnings call Thursday morning.

The company, which manufactures Pepsi and Gatorade drinks as well as popular snacks like Doritos and Cheetos, cut its profit forecast for the full year to flat from its earlier guidance that expected earnings growth to be in the mid-single digits. It reported a decline of 1.8 percent in revenue, to $17.9 billion, for the quarter that ended March 22, and a drop of 10 percent in net income, to $1.8 billion, from a year earlier.

PepsiCo’s stock fell more than 4 percent, to $136, by early afternoon.

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Comments made on PepsiCo’s earnings call echoed what executives at other consumer companies have said in recent days about how apprehension in the global economy is key to less consumer spending. The pullback has started to weigh on some companies’ revenues and dampen their outlook for the coming months, especially as they try to calculate the costs they’ll incur from the Trump administration’s new or increased tariffs on imported goods.

At Chipotle, same-store sales fell for the first time since 2020 in the most recent quarter, the chain reported this week. Uncertainty about the path forward for the U.S. economy started to affect spending in February, the company said, shortly after President Trump’s inauguration — a trend that continued into April.

“It was all around this idea of saving money, economic uncertainty — they’re eating at home more frequently than they’re eating out,” Scott Boatwright, the burrito chain’s chief executive, said when asked about consumer behavior. The underlying trend, he added, is “really tied to the consumer sitting on the sideline.”

Chipotle also lowered its full-year guidance. Beyond sluggish consumer spending, the chain said it expected Mr. Trump’s tariffs imposed in April — a broad 10 percent duty on many imports and tariffs on aluminum — to raise the company’s food, beverage and packaging costs this year.

Another signal of distress among shoppers: Consumers are doing less laundry to scale back on detergent purchases, an executive from Procter & Gamble, which makes household staples like Tide detergent, told Yahoo Finance.

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On Thursday, P.&G. cut its full-year outlook and said whiplash on tariff policy had factored into a “pause” in consumption as consumers also tried to make sense of stock market volatility and job market uncertainty, said Andre Schulten, the company’s chief financial officer.

Signs that economic concerns are starting to affect consumer spending are appearing in the airline industry, too. American Airlines pulled its full-year guidance on Thursday, mirroring a move last month from Delta Air Lines. Robert Isom, the chief executive of American Airlines, told CNBC on Thursday that domestic leisure travel “fell off considerably” starting in February.

The most recent survey from the Conference Board showed consumer confidence tumbling in March to its lowest level since January 2021. Americans are increasingly anxious about their jobs and finances, the business group reported.

Hoping to entice consumers who are tightening wallets, executives at PepsiCo said it was offering less expensive, under $2, individual bags of snacks along with smaller snack packs in stores.

PepsiCo said it had calculated into its lower profit estimates the higher costs associated with the tariffs. “We also factored in some of our mitigation plans, some we will be able to execute more quickly than others,” Mr. Caulfield said on the call on Thursday.

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Analysts had been keeping a close eye on the impact that tariffs would have on the food and beverage industry, specifically a 25 percent tariff on imported aluminum.

And while Wall Street analysts have been watching for potential fallout of the Trump administration’s trade wars on sales of American brands in key international markets, specifically Europe and China, PepsiCo said its global markets performed well in the first quarter.

In the United States, the popularity of using Ozempic and other weight-loss drugs has curbed sales for snacks and shifted purchases to smaller portions, Ramon Laguarta, the chief executive of PepsiCo, told analysts.

PepsiCo is also navigating demands by Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. This week, Mr. Kennedy declared that “sugar is poison” during a news conference and said he had “an understanding” with major food manufacturers to remove petroleum-based food colorings from their products by the end of 2026.

Mr. Laguarta said that PepsiCo had been an industry leader in reducing sodium and sugar in products and that more than 60 percent of its business was from products with no artificial colors. In the next few years, he added, the company will have “migrated all the portfolio into natural colors or at least provide the consumer with natural color options.”

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Commentary: Meme stocks are still with us, offering new temptations for novice and unwary investors

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Commentary: Meme stocks are still with us, offering new temptations for novice and unwary investors

If you blinked you may have missed this, but the stock of Beyond Meat, the purveyor of meatless burger patties, had a spectacular run a few days ago.

The stock had surged by more than 1,400% in the four days through Oct. 22, when shares hit an intraday peak of $7.69, up from a low of 50 cents on Oct. 16.

Given that this El Segundo-based company has never had a profitable year since its 2019 initial public stock offering, the run-up was apparently triggered by the online touting of the stock by a trader named Demitri Semenikhin, and the shares have since settled back to $1.65 (in intraday trading Thursday), the action has market observers asking if “meme stocks” are back.

The answer is no — because they’ve never gone away.

I’ve been seeing signs of a ‘flight to crap’ recently.

— Market strategist Steve Sosnick

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The appetite of small retail investors for what beckon as big scores in unloved stocks has remained strong since the meme stock trade attracted attention during the pandemic year 2021.

The “meme” sobriquet points to the most notable factor driving the swift run-up and rapid downfall of these stocks: They feed on momentum generated by internet touts, not sober assessments of business prospects and financial results. Indeed, the quintessential meme stock has little in the way of profits to catch the eye of serious investors.

Beyond Meat is just the latest company to enjoy sudden meme-dom, followed by an equally sudden dose of reality. In Beyond’s case, the surge came in the wake of its Oct. 13 announcement of the results of a debt swap deal that will massively dilute the stake of shareholders. Short sellers piled into the stock, setting up the momentary rebound typical of meme stocks.

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Over the last few months, meme stock traders have piled into, and then out of, shares in Krispy Kreme, GoPro, Kohl’s and other companies that are disdained as underperformers by the Wall Street establishment, only to be taken up by an internet-fueled army of small investors. But those investors seldom have the resources to survive the almost inevitable snapback.

For those who may not recall the meme stock frenzy of 2020-21, here’s a trip down memory lane.

The emblematic meme stock of 2021 was GameStop, a spavined mall-based video game retailer that was struggling through the transformation of its franchise from brick-and-mortar stores to online commerce. The company had lost a combined $1.36 billion from 2018 through 2020, and its future looked bleak.

Then, as if out of nowhere, the stock got noticed by online investment promoters, who urged followers to buy GameStop shares to hurt Wall Street short sellers, who were betting that the stock would keep falling.

The shares climbed relentlessly through January 2021, soaring from a low of $12.16 in mid-December to an intraday high of about $483 on Jan. 28. It closed that day at $193.60, delivering a prompt lesson that investing in stocks based on claims touted online is a mug’s game.

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All this action was the product of several confluent factors. One was the pandemic and its attendant lockdowns, which prompted people deprived of social contacts and customary entertainment pursuits to fill their empty hours day-trading stocks. Internet influencers goaded their followers into trading in concert with the goal of putting it to the Man — i.e., rich Wall Street hedge fund managers who were shorting unloved stocks and deserved to be taken down a peg.

GameStop stock wasn’t the first issue to get memed. In 2020, investors piled into Hertz, even though it had been forced to seek bankruptcy protection after the COVID-19 outbreak cratered the rental car market,. Bloomberg even declared 2020 “the year of the meme stock.” (Hertz abandoned a plan to sell new shares into the frenzy after regulators raised questions about it.)

But it was GameStop that made meme stock trading into, well, a meme. GameStop displayed all the elements that drove the meme frenzy, the Securities and Exchange Commission ultimately reported: “(1) large price moves, (2) large volume changes, (3) large short interest, (4) frequent Reddit mentions, and (4) significant coverage in the mainstream media.”

A key element of the meme market was an influx of young individual investors enthralled by get-rich-quick trading come-ons. Robinhood, an online brokerage that cut commissions to zero and enticed new customers with an app that made stock trading resemble playing a video game, disclosed that “its average customer is 31 years old and has a median account balance of $240,” the SEC reported.

One might have expected that as these factors ebbed, the meme stock frenzy would evaporate. It did, somewhat, but not nearly as much as Wall Street pros expected. Indeed, as GameStop rose, the buyers gleefully declared victory over the shorts, fueling the search for more meme-able stocks. Some investors made the theater operator AMC Entertainment a meme stock. Some joined new crazes, such as cryptocurrencies, nonfungible tokens and other assets more or less immune from the traditional investment fundamentals such as revenues and profits and business plans.

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Nothing was especially new about individual stocks having a moment in the sun before falling back into obscurity, but the frenzy of early 2021 turned meme stocks into an assiduously followed investment category all its own. Financial pages and tout sheets ran wrap-ups of meme action every year. GameStop and AMC were perennial members of this club, supplemented by newcomers.

In 2022, the star was the bankruptcy-bound retailer Bed Bath & Beyond, which staged a nine-day rally that summer culminated in a one-day 40% surge Aug. 8 on extraordinary volume of 120.5 million shares. (Its Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing finally arrived in April 2023.)

To define the category, market analysts generally rely on the factors mentioned by the SEC in its reference to GameStop. But not all meme stocks were similarly obscure before having their day. One that has recently landed on meme stock rosters is Tesla: “Wildly overvalued compared to rival automakers, its shareholders are betting that they can sell their holdings to a greater fool in the near future,” economist J. Bradford Delong of UC Berkeley wrote in May 2024.

Earlier this year, Yale professor Jeff Sonnenfeld polled the attendees of his most recent CEO conference on the question: “Compared to NVIDIA’s 40x P/E forward multiple and Apple’s 30x multiple, has Tesla at 160x become the biggest meme stock in modern financial market history?”

Of the 100 participants, 83 voted “yes.”

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Meme investors have acquired new tools to follow and invest in meme targets. Bloomberg and UBS have developed meme stock indexes, and in October a meme stock exchange-traded fund — a mutual fund that trades like a stock — was launched by the investment house Roundhill.

One can hardly fault Roundhill’s warning of the risks of meme investing: “Meme Stocks are characterized by high trading volumes and significant price volatility, often driven by social media trends and investor interest,” it advises potential investors. “Meme Stocks often trade untethered from … fundamentals, driven instead by speculative fervor and viral momentum.”

“Volatility” is the mot juste for this ETF: Despite notching a 17% gain over four days shortly after its introduction, MEME is currently down more than 23% from its Oct. 14 peak.

Meme-stock buying is often triggered or sustained by a nugget of bull-market sentiment. The Beyond Meat narrative included its Oct. 21 announcement of a deal with Walmart that will place its products in more than 2,000 stores. But whether that’s enough to overcome the company’s evident financial headwinds remains questionable.

For Opendoor Technologies, a money-losing residential real estate broker that quintupled in price during a few weeks this summer and nearly doubled in price on a single trading day in September, the story was that lower interest rates would spur more housing transactions.

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Opendoor Chairman Keith Rabois bristled at a CNBC anchor’s description of the company as a meme stock during an interview in September, arguing that investors have begun to appreciate its “potential upside.” Beyond Meat didn’t respond to my request for comment on its share price. (Opendoor was the Roundhill ETF’s largest holding when the ETF was launched; more recently, the largest holding has been Beyond Meat.)

The economic fundamentals underlying the overall stock market don’t seem to have much to do with meme stock rallies. The original craze developed when interest rates were close to zero, making stocks look attractive compared with fixed income investments; the current craze has unfolded during a period of high interest rates and economic uncertainty — though that hasn’t stopped the major stock indexes from notching record highs lately.

Small investors would be well advised to keep in mind that the meme market could be the very definition of a risky place to trade. Meme investors tend to crowd into a stock after it has already begun its rapid march upward — and sometimes when that trend is about to reverse.

GameStop hasn’t fallen back to its pre-frenzy price in the low double digits, but with its current price below $23, investors who bought at its January 2021 peak have lost about 80% of their money. (The company staged a 4-to-1 stock split in July 2022, so one must multiply its current price by four to replicate its 2021 prices.)

The smart money says that the meme trade is with us to stay. There’s just too much uninformed, misinformed and self-interested commentary washing about in the investment sphere, too easily accessed by unwary and novice investors. Most of the advice being pushed on investors today isn’t much good, and what can be gleaned from promoters on Reddit even worse. The term “buyer beware” has never been so important.

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Universal Music Group settles with AI music startup Udio

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Universal Music Group settles with AI music startup Udio

Universal Music Group said Wednesday it has reached licensing agreements with artificial intelligence music startup Udio, settling a lawsuit that had accused Udio of using copyrighted music to train its AI.

Millions of users create music using Udio’s AI, which can compose original songs — including voices and instruments — from text prompts.

Udio has agreed with UMG to launch a new platform next year that is only trained on “authorized and licensed music,” and will let users customize, stream and share music.

“These new agreements with Udio demonstrate our commitment to do what’s right by our artists and songwriters, whether that means embracing new technologies, developing new business models, diversifying revenue streams or beyond,” Lucian Grainge, UMG’s chairman and chief executive, said in a statement.

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Udio declined to disclose the financial terms of the settlement and licensing agreements. UMG did not immediately return a request for comment on the terms.

Artificial intelligence has brought new opportunities as well as challenges to the entertainment industry, as AI startups have been training their models on information on the internet, which entertainment companies say infringes on their copyrighted work.

In the music industry, music businesses have accused New York City-based Udio and other AI music startups of training on copyrighted music to generate new songs that are based on popular hits without compensation or permission.

UMG, Sony Music Entertainment, Warner Music Group and other music businesses sued Udio last year. In the lawsuit, Udio was accused of using hits like The Temptations’ “My Girl,” to create a similar melody called “Sunshine Melody.” UMG owns the copyright to “My Girl.”

“A comparison of one section of the Udio-generated file and ‘My Girl’ reflects a number of similarities, including a very similar melody, the same chords, and very similar backing vocals,” according to the lawsuit. “These similarities are further reflected in the side-by-side transcriptions of the musical scores for the Udio file and the original recording.”

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Udio said on its website at the time that it stands by its technology and that its AI model learns from examples, similar to how students listen to music and study scores.

“The goal of model training is to develop an understanding of musical ideas — the basic building blocks of musical expression that are owned by no one,” Udio had said in a statement. “We are completely uninterested in reproducing content in our training set.”

On Wednesday, Udio’s CEO and co-founder, Andrew Sanchez, said he was thrilled at the opportunity to work with UMG “to redefine how AI empowers artists and fans.”

The collaboration is the first music licensing agreement that Udio has reached with a major music label.

“This moment brings to life everything we’ve been building toward — uniting AI and the music industry in a way that truly champions artists,” Sanchez said in a statement. “Together, we’re building the technological and business landscape that will fundamentally expand what’s possible in music creation and engagement.”

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Udio said that artists can opt in to the new platform and will be compensated, but declined to go into the specifics or the artists involved.

Udio, launched in 2024, was co-founded by former Google DeepMind employees. Udio’s backers include music artist will.i.am, Instagram co-founder and Anthropic’s chief product officer Mike Krieger and venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz.

Udio has had 128,000 app downloads in Apple’s App Store since it launched, according to estimates from New York-based mobile analytics firm Appfigures.

On Thursday, UMG also announced a partnership with London-based Stability AI to develop music creation tools powered by AI for artists, producers and songwriters.

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Disneyland Resort lays off 100 people in Anaheim

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Disneyland Resort lays off 100 people in Anaheim

Disneyland Resort has laid off about 100 people in Anaheim, as Walt Disney Co. becomes the latest media and entertainment company to cut jobs.

The layoffs occurred Tuesday and came from multiple teams, Disney confirmed.

“With our business in a period of steady, sustained operation, we are recalibrating our organization to ensure we continue to deliver exceptional experiences for our guests, while positioning Disneyland Resort for the future,” a Disneyland spokesperson said in a statement. “As part of this, we’ve made the difficult decision to eliminate a limited number of salaried positions.”

Disney attributed the cuts to an increase in hiring after the parks reopened once the COVID-19 pandemic waned.

Disney’s theme parks are a major economic engine for the Burbank media and entertainment giant.

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Last year, the company’s experiences division — which includes its theme parks, cruise line and Aulani resort and spa in Hawaii — brought in nearly 60% of Disney’s operating income.

Earlier this month, the company announced price hikes on most of its single-day, one-park tickets.

The Disneyland Resort layoffs come as entertainment and tech companies have recently shed thousands of jobs.

On Wednesday, Paramount laid off 1,000 employees in a first round of cuts after the company’s takeover by tech scion David Ellison’s Skydance Media. Amazon, Meta, Charter Corp. and NBC News also have announced cuts.

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