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Inflation improves slightly in April, but high cost of housing remains a big obstacle

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Inflation improves slightly in April, but high cost of housing remains a big obstacle

Government data released Wednesday show that inflation eased a bit in April, but remains at a relatively high level. The latest report isn’t likely to lift the grim mood that much of the public has toward an otherwise solid economy.

Though incomes have generally risen more than consumer prices, the overall rate of inflation remains stubbornly high. It dropped a notch in April but was up 3.4% from a year ago, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said.

And unexpectedly, the biggest culprit is housing.

The Federal Reserve’s textbook-perfect policy of fighting inflation by pushing up interest rates has worked in large parts of the economy. The higher interest rates have helped slow growth in consumer prices for items such as food, gas, clothes and cars. Today, the inflation rate for those products is back down to, or even below, the central bank’s 2% target.

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But the Fed’s same policy has paralyzed housing, an important segment of the economy, and sabotaged efforts to bring down overall inflation faster.

What the higher interest rates have done is freeze both homeowners and renters in place, discouraging either group from moving. The effect has been strong in California, where housing — what economists call the cost of “shelter” — was already very expensive.

And, in a complicated chain of cause and effect, the fact that both homeowners and renters are staying put has worked to keep inflation high.

“For two years we’ve been waiting for shelter inflation to drop enough to have an effect on the overall inflation rate. It’s constantly disappointing,” said G.U. Krueger, a longtime housing economist in Los Angeles.

“Because of high interest rates,” he said, “there’s no mobility out of rental situations to buy homes. Everyone is stuck — homeowners with golden handcuffs, renters basically with unadorned handcuffs.”

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For homeowners, inflation is helping make their homes more valuable. But selling isn’t an option for many because they don’t want to give up their lower mortgage rates. Today the average 30-year fixed rate is more than 7%. Higher home prices also mean they could lose whatever gains they’d made when they replaced the house they’d sold.

For renters, there isn’t even the appearance of gains: They’re frozen in place because rent prices have failed to come down even though many new rental properties have come on the market. The typical rent for apartments and houses combined last month was about $2,920 in Los Angeles, making it one of the least affordable regions in the country, according to Zillow.

With more renters forced to stay put, there’s greater demand for, and lower vacancy at, many rental properties. That’s tended to keep pressure on prices even as more supply has come on line. Builders and landlords also are pricing rents to recoup higher costs for construction and maintenance.

Last month, consumer spending for shelter accounted for about 36% of the basket of goods and services that made up the government’s consumer price index, or CPI.

Fed policymakers track a different inflation measure in which housing isn’t given as much weight in figuring overall inflation. But both tell the same story: Housing inflation is running a lot hotter than for most other consumer goods and services.

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In April, consumer prices overall rose 0.3% from March, seasonally adjusted, to an annual inflation rate of 3.4% compared with 3.5% the previous month. While that’s a dramatic decline from a 40-year high of 9.1% in June 2022, the improvement has been slowed by sticky inflation in housing.

Shelter prices in April also nudged down a bit over the month, but they were up 5.5% from a year ago, compared with 2.2% for all other goods and services combined, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Earlier this year, economists were expecting that a bigger decline in overall inflation would prompt the Fed to begin the first of a series of interest rate cuts this spring. But now, with prices for housing and some other services remaining high, many analysts aren’t so sure.

“I just don’t see a catalyst for any kind of rate cut right now,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset, an asset management and advisory firm. “Maybe if we’re lucky we get one cut this year.”

The Fed’s benchmark interest rate, which influences borrowing rates on homes, cars and credit cards, is at a 23-year high of about 5.3%. Higher interest rates have been felt especially hard in California’s economy, given the importance of interest-sensitive sectors such as high-tech, entertainment and real estate.

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One result is that job growth in the state has lagged behind; California’s latest unemployment rate, 5.3% in March, is the highest in the land. The state’s employment report for April comes out Friday.

Experts had been more optimistic about inflation falling faster after seeing signs of declining rents last year. But average rents have begun creeping higher again in recent months, thanks in part to bigger increases for rental houses.

U.S. rents for all housing rose on average 0.6% in April from March, and now stand at a whisker below $2,000 per month, according to Zillow. That’s up 31% since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

In high-priced markets such as California, steep home prices and high mortgage rates have made homeownership more elusive and soured people’s mood about the economy, with much of the blame falling on President Biden. Surveys indicate renters are among the least happy in the state and that many are considering moving out of Los Angeles.

Chris Salviati, housing economist at Apartment List, which tracks new leasing activity, said rents have come down significantly from double-digit levels but not fast enough. “It’s still moving in the right direction, but it’s a gradual decline. Certainly it’s been frustrating for folks.”

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Why is housing inflation so sticky?

One factor is that most people sign yearlong leases, so there’s a lag and it takes time for changes in rents to show up. When home prices plummeted during the Great Recession, it took about 18 months for the shelter component in the CPI to moderate, said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at Fwdbonds, a financial research firm.

CPI figures on shelter also tend to understate what many consumers are experiencing. The data show that rents for primary residences in Los Angeles and Orange counties rose 4.4% in 2022, even though prices for all other goods and services combined jumped 9.3% that year. Since then, the trend has reversed: inflation for rents and shelter have been growing much faster than for all other items.

Experts say the recent upturn in rents may be due partly to apartment owners trying to recoup their higher costs, as the broader inflationary climate has meant they’re paying more for maintenance, supplies and labor.

“Landlords are trying to catch up,” said Erica Groshen, an economist affiliated with Cornell University and former commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which publishes the CPI reports.

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Some experts say that one possible answer to housing inflation is for the Fed to cut rates. While it may seem counterintuitive for policymakers to take such action when the economy and job market are still strong, lowering interest rates could spur mobility and also make it easier for builders to start more projects and thus boost supply.

But boosting demand for home purchases could also add more juice to home prices, at least in the short term, increasing risks of creating housing bubbles.

“For the Fed,” said Rupkey, “it’s damned if you do, and damned if you don’t.”

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Heidi O’Neill, Formerly of Nike, Will Be New Lululemon’s New CEO

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Heidi O’Neill, Formerly of Nike, Will Be New Lululemon’s New CEO

Lululemon, the yoga pants and athletic clothing company, has hired a former executive from a rival, Nike, as its new chief executive.

Heidi O’Neill, who spent more than 25 years at Nike, will take the reins and join Lululemon’s board of directors on Sept. 8, the company announced on Wednesday.

The leadership change is happening during a tumultuous time for Lululemon, which had grown to $11 billion in revenue by persuading shoppers to ditch their jeans and slacks for stretchy leggings. But lately, sales have declined in North America amid intense competition and shifting fashion trends, with consumers favoring looser styles rather than the form-fitting silhouettes for which Lululemon is best known.

“As I step into the C.E.O. role in September, my job will be to build on that foundation — to accelerate product breakthroughs, deepen the brand’s cultural relevance, and unlock growth in markets around the world,” Ms. O’Neill, 61, said in a statement.

Lululemon, based in Vancouver, British Columbia, has also been entangled in a corporate power struggle over the company’s future. Its billionaire founder, Chip Wilson, has feuded with the board, nominated independent directors and criticized executives.

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Lululemon’s previous chief executive, Calvin McDonald, stepped down at the end of January as pressure mounted from Mr. Wilson and some investors. One activist investor, Elliott Investment Management, had pushed its own chief executive candidate, who was not selected.

The interim co-chiefs, Meghan Frank and André Maestrini, will lead the company until Ms. O’Neill’s arrival, when they are expected to return to other senior roles. The pair had outlined a plan to revive sales at Lululemon, promising to invest in stores, save more money and speed up product development.

“We start the year with a real plan, with real strategies,” Mr. Maestrini said in an interview this year. “We make sure decisions are made fast.”

Lululemon said last month that it would add Chip Bergh, the former chief executive of Levi Strauss, to its board to replace David Mussafer, the chairman of the private equity firm Advent International, whom Mr. Wilson had sought to remove.

Ms. O’Neill climbed the organizational chart at Nike for decades, working across divisions including consumer sports, product innovation and brand marketing, and was most recently its president of consumer, product and brand. She left Nike last year amid a shake-up of senior management that led to the elimination of her role.

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Analysts said Ms. O’Neill would be expected to find ways to energize Lululemon’s business and reset the company’s culture in order to improve performance.

“O’Neill is her own person who will come with an agenda of change,” said Neil Saunders, the managing director of GlobalData, a data analytics and consulting company. “The task ahead is a significant one, but it can be undertaken from a position of relative stability.”

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Angry Altadena residents ask officials to halt Edison’s undergrounding work

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Angry Altadena residents ask officials to halt Edison’s undergrounding work

Eaton wildfire survivors’ anger about Southern California Edison’s burying of electric wires in Altadena boiled over Tuesday with residents calling on government officials to temporarily halt the work.

In a letter to the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors, more than 120 Altadena residents and the town’s council wrote that they had witnessed “manifest failures” by Edison in recent months as it has been tearing up streets and digging trenches to bury the wires.

The residents cited the unexpected financial cost of the work to homeowners and possible harm to the town’s remaining trees. They also pointed out how the work will leave telecommunication wires above ground on poles.

“The current lack of coordination is compounding the stress of a community still reeling from the Eaton Fire, and risks causing further irreparable harm,” the residents wrote.

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The council voted unanimously Tuesday night to send the letter.

Scott Johnson, an Edison spokesman, said Wednesday that the company has been working to address the concerns, including by looking for other sources of funds to help pay for the homeowners’ costs.

“We recognize this community has already faced a number of challenges,” he said.

Johnson said the company will allow homeowners to keep existing overhead lines connecting their homes to the grid if they are worried about the cost.

Edison’s crews, Johnson said, have also been trained to use equipment that avoids roots and preserves the health of trees.

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The utility has said that burying the wires as the town rebuilds thousands of homes destroyed in the fire will make the electrical grid safer and more reliable.

But anger has grown as work crews have shown up unexpectedly and residents learned they’re on the hook to pay tens of thousands of dollars to connect their homes to the buried lines.

Residents have also found the crews digging under the town’s oak and pine trees that survived last year’s fire. Arborists say the trenches could destroy the roots of some of the last remaining trees and kill them.

Amy Bodek, the county’s regional planning director, recently warned Edison that a government ordinance protects oak trees and that “utility trenching is not exempt from these requirements.”

Residents have also pointed out that in much of Altadena, the telecom companies, including Spectrum and AT&T, have not agreed to bury their wires in Edison’s trenches. That means the telecom wires will remain on poles above ground, which residents say is visually unappealing.

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“While our community supports the long-term benefits of moving utilities underground, the current execution by SCE is placing undue financial and planning burdens on homeowners, causing irreparable harm to our heritage tree canopy, and proceeding without adequate local oversight,” the residents wrote.

They want the project halted until the problems are addressed.

Edison announced last year that it would spend as much as $925 million to underground and rebuild its grid in Altadena and Malibu, where the Palisades fire caused devastation.

The work — which costs an estimated $4 million per mile — will earn the utility millions of dollars in profits as its electric customers pay for it over the next decades.

Pedro Pizarro, chief executive of Edison International, told Gov. Gavin Newsom last year that state utility rules would require Altadena and Malibu homeowners to pay to underground the electric wire from their property line to the panel on their house. Pizarro estimated it would cost $8,000 to $10,000 for each home.

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But some residents, who need to dig long trenches, say it will cost them much more.

“We are rebuilding and with the insurance shortfall, our finances are stretched already,” Marilyn Chong, an Altadena resident, wrote in a comment attached to the letter. “Incurring the additional burden of financing SCE’s infrastructure is not something we can or should have to do.”

Other fire survivors complained of Edison’s lack of planning and coordination with residents.

“I’ve started rebuilding, and apparently there won’t be underground power lines for me to connect with in time when my house will be done,” wrote Gail Murphy. “So apparently I’m supposed to be using a generator, and for how long!?”

Johnson said the company has set up a phone line for people with concerns or questions. That line — 1-800-250-7339 — is answered Monday through Saturday, he said.

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Residents can also go to Edison’s office in Altadena at 2680 Fair Oaks Avenue. The office is open Monday to Friday from 8 to 4:30.

It’s unclear if the Eaton fire would have been less disastrous if Altadena’s neighborhood power lines had been buried.

The blaze ignited under Edison’s towering transmission lines that run through Eaton Canyon. Those lines carry bulk power through the company’s territory. In Altadena, Edison is burying the smaller distribution lines, which carry power to homes.

The government investigation into the cause of the fire has not yet been released. Pizarro has said that a leading theory is that a century-old transmission line, which had not carried power for 50 years, somehow re-energized to spark the blaze.

The fire killed at least 19 people and destroyed more than 9,400 homes and other structures.

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Oil Prices Rise as Investors Weigh Cease-Fire Extension

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Oil Prices Rise as Investors Weigh Cease-Fire Extension

Oil prices rose and stocks moved slightly higher on Wednesday as investors tried to make sense of President Trump’s decision to extend the cease-fire with Iran despite doubts about the status of another round of peace talks.

An adviser to Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the influential speaker of the Iranian Parliament, dismissed the cease-fire announcement, saying that it had “no meaning.” He equated the U.S. naval blockade with bombings, with commercial vessels coming under attack near the Strait of Hormuz, the crucial shipping lane that has been at the center of a growing energy crisis.

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