Business
How a Small Group of Firms Changed the Math for Insuring Against Natural Disasters
As disasters like the wildfires that devastated the Hawaiian town of Lahaina and the storms that tore apart roofs from Alabama to Massachusetts last week intensify, insurance companies have pulled back from offering coverage in certain areas or cut the kinds of damage they will pay to repair.
A little-noticed slice of the financial industry that provides insurance to insurers, called reinsurance, has helped drive the changes.
These companies promise to step in with cash — usually huge amounts — when something like a hurricane, wildfire or other big disaster creates damage that is too costly and widespread for insurance companies to pay for on their own. And at the beginning of the year, nearly all of them raised prices.
In the weeks leading up to Jan. 1, when about half of reinsurance policies are renewed for the year, reinsurers broke the news to insurance companies across the United States and Canada — from large national carriers like State Farm and Farmers to smaller, more specialized firms — that their prices were going up. That led to a flurry of tense negotiations between those insurers and firms, like Swiss Re, Odyssey Re and other reinsurers, many of whom are headquartered outside of the United States.
Reinsurers have lost money over the last four or five years as they competed to offer the best terms to customers, said Franklin Nutter, president of the Reinsurance Association of America, the industry’s trade group. But late last year, they decided competing this way wasn’t worth the cost.
“The reinsurance community at large essentially decided we need a reset,” said Sean Kent, an insurance broker for FirstService Financial, who helps big housing developments find property insurance policies. “It was the most volatile of any reinsurance renewal date in decades.”
Reinsurers’ increased prices have accelerated changes in an industry grappling with a new sense of uncertainty. The world is warming; storms are getting more intense; inflation has increased the cost of rebuilding after a disaster; and a global increase in interest rates is making money itself more expensive.
Since the beginning of the year, insurance companies have paid out $40 billion to U.S. customers, putting them on track for another record in yearly losses. At every level, the costs of guarding against risk are rising and everyone, from the leaders of large companies to the owners of homes and small businesses, is feeling the squeeze.
“If you’re a C.E.O. or C.F.O. of a mid-market company — we’re talking about a 500-unit townhome community in Minnesota — they’re talking about reinsurance and the impact that reinsurance has on their bottom line and their profitability,” Mr. Kent said.
Prices for reinsurance rose as much as 40 percent on Jan. 1 from a year earlier, according to a report by Gallagher Re, a brokerage firm that puts together reinsurance coverage deals. The price increases jolted insurers, who then made changes to where and for what they offered coverage. When State Farm announced in May that it would stop accepting new applications for certain policies in California, it cited “a challenging reinsurance market.” Allstate also cited reinsurance costs when it paused some of its activities in California. Last month, reinsurers specializing in agriculture insurance announced that they were pulling out of Iowa, where, three years ago, a severe windstorm caused nearly $4 billion in damage.
As a result of rising reinsurance costs, insurers also raised prices where regulations allowed. The cost of insuring big new developments of stick-frame housing, the kind springing up at the edges of cities like Denver and Calgary, Alberta, and across the Texas plains, skyrocketed, according to Mr. Kent.
Severe thunderstorms in the United States have caused nearly 70 percent of the losses that insurance companies around the world have incurred this year from natural disasters, according to an Aug. 9 report by the Zurich-based reinsurer Swiss Re. And the weather is not likely to get better.
“We are very likely going to see 2023 be the costliest on record for thunderstorms in the United States,” said Steve Bowen, Gallagher Re’s chief science officer.
To industry outsiders, it might seem strange that so many reinsurance companies, based in different parts of the world, would behave so similarly. But in the insurance industry, such herdlike movements are common, according to Michael Powers, a finance professor at Tsinghua University in China and a former deputy insurance commissioner for Pennsylvania.
“People in the industry tend to be risk averse, they tend to be looking at the same data, they tend to see the world in the same way,” Mr. Powers said.
Many industry experts, including Mr. Nutter, think reinsurance prices will stay high for a significant period. They say insurers may have to raise prices even in places where they meet the most resistance from regulators, who generally review price increases on consumer insurance policies and have the right to block those they determine would generate excessive profits.
As reinsurers pull back, some insurance companies are turning to other methods of securing backup cash. One, the market for catastrophe bonds, lets investors put up money that can be used to cover major-disaster losses in exchange for small regular payments that can add up to an appealing investment return. A total of $7.1 billion in catastrophe bonds were issued during the second quarter of this year, a record, according to Artemis, a company that tracks the market for the bonds.
But not all reinsurers have backed away from insurers in areas facing increasing risk from natural disasters. The reinsurance business of Berkshire Hathaway, the conglomerate owned by Warren Buffett, recently made a $1 billion deal with Florida’s state-run insurer, Citizens Property Insurance Corporation. It is Citizens’ largest coverage agreement to date with a single company for traditional reinsurance.
Mr. Powers said that reinsurance prices could come down sooner than most people are expecting, and that reinsurers will stay away only for so long before they start to feel that they’re missing out.
“People realize the sky hasn’t fallen,” he said, “and they want to make money.”
B. Riley Financial Inc. received more demands for information from federal regulators about its dealings with now-bankrupt Franchise Group as well as a personal loan for Chairman and co-founder Bryant Riley.
The Los Angeles-based investment firm and Riley each received additional subpoenas in November from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission seeking documents and information about Franchise Group, or FRG, the retail company that was once one of its biggest investments before its collapse last year, according to a long-delayed quarterly filing. The agency also wants to know more about Riley’s pledge of B. Riley shares as collateral for a personal loan, the filing shows.
B. Riley previously received SEC subpoenas in July for information about its dealings with ex-FRG chief executive Brian Kahn, part of a long-running probe that has rocked B. Riley and helped push its shares to their lowest in more than a decade. Bryant Riley, who founded the company in 1997 and built it into one of the biggest U.S. investment firms beyond Wall Street, has been forced to sell assets and raise cash to ease creditors’ concerns.
The firm and Riley “are responding to the subpoenas and are fully cooperating with the SEC,” according to the filing. The company said the subpoenas don’t mean the SEC has determined any violations of law have occurred.
Shares in B. Riley jumped more than 25% in New York trading after the company’s overdue quarterly filing gave investors their first formal look at the firm’s performance in more than half a year. The data included a net loss of more than $435 million for the three months ended June 30. The shares through Monday had plunged more than 80% in the past 12 months, trading for less than $4 each.
B. Riley and Kahn — a longstanding client and friend of Riley’s — teamed up in 2023 to take FRG private in a $2.8-billion deal. The transaction soon came under pressure when Kahn was tagged as an unindicted co-conspirator by authorities in the collapse of an unrelated hedge fund called Prophecy Asset Management, which led to a fraud conviction for one of the fund’s executives.
Kahn has said he didn’t do anything wrong, that he wasn’t aware of any fraud at Prophecy and that he was among those who lost money in the collapse. But federal investigations into his role have spilled over into his dealings with B. Riley and its chairman, who have said internal probes found they “had no involvement with, or knowledge of, any alleged misconduct concerning Mr. Kahn or any of his affiliates.”
FRG filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in November, a move that led to hundreds of millions of dollars of losses for B. Riley. The collapse made Riley “personally sick,” he said at the time.
One of the biggest financial problems to arise from the FRG deal was a loan that B. Riley made to Kahn for about $200 million, which was secured against FRG shares. With that company’s collapse into bankruptcy in November wiping out equity holders, the value of the remaining collateral for this debt has now dwindled to only about $2 million, the filing shows.
Griffin writes for Bloomberg.
Starbucks will require people visiting its coffee shops to buy something in order to stay or to use its bathrooms, the company announced in a letter sent to store managers on Monday.
The new policy, outlined in a Code of Conduct, will be enacted later this month and applies to the company’s cafes, patios and bathrooms.
“Implementing a Coffeehouse Code of Conduct is something most retailers already have and is a practical step that helps us prioritize our paying customers who want to sit and enjoy our cafes or need to use the restroom during their visit,” Jaci Anderson, a Starbucks spokeswoman, said in an emailed statement.
Ms. Anderson said that by outlining expectations for customers the company “can create a better environment for everyone.”
The Code of Conduct will be displayed in every store and prohibit behaviors including discrimination, harassment, smoking and panhandling.
People who violate the rules will be asked to leave the store, and employees may call law enforcement, the policy says.
Before implementation of the new policy begins on Jan. 27, store managers will be given 40 hours to prepare stores and workers, according to the company. There will also be training sessions for staff.
This training time will be used to prepare for other new practices, too, including asking customers if they want their drink to stay or to go and offering unlimited free refills of hot or iced coffee to customers who order a drink to stay.
The changes are part of an attempt by the company to prioritize customers and make the stores more inviting, Sara Trilling, the president of Starbucks North America, said in a letter to store managers.
“We know from customers that access to comfortable seating and a clean, safe environment is critical to the Starbucks experience they love,” she wrote. “We’ve also heard from you, our partners, that there is a need to reset expectations for how our spaces should be used, and who uses them.”
The changes come as the company responds to declining sales, falling stock prices and grumbling from activist investors. In August, the company appointed a new chief executive, Brian Niccol.
Mr. Niccol outlined changes the company needed to make in a video in October. “We will simplify our overly complex menu, fix our pricing architecture and ensure that every customer feels Starbucks is worth it every single time they visit,” he said.
The new purchase requirement reverses a policy Starbucks instituted in 2018 that said people could use its cafes and bathrooms even if they had not bought something.
The earlier policy was introduced a month after two Black men were arrested in a Philadelphia Starbucks while waiting to meet another man for a business meeting.
Officials said that the men had asked to use the bathroom, but that an employee had refused the request because they had not purchased anything. An employee then called the police, and part of the ensuing encounter was recorded on video and viewed by millions of people online, prompting boycotts and protests.
In 2022, Howard Schultz, the Starbucks chief executive at the time, said that the company was reconsidering the open-bathroom policy.
TAIPEI, Taiwan — TikTok users concerned about a looming ban are finding solace in a strange place.
Days ahead of a Supreme Court decision that could determine whether the popular short-video app shuts down starting Sunday, a number of users appear to be turning to an app called RedNote — more commonly known to its majority-Chinese audience by its Chinese name, Xiaohongshu.
It’s a surprising choice since Xiaohongshu is Chinese-owned, and such ties are the reason U.S. lawmakers moved to ban TikTok in the U.S., citing privacy and national security concerns.
Also Xiaohongshu is dominated by Chinese language, and its content is subject to censorship by Chinese government officials, something alien to most U.S. users.
But by embracing a Chinese social media and lifestyle app similar to Instagram, some U.S. TikTok users say they are protesting what they believe is the unfair ban of the ubiquitous app.
“I think America is trying to bully China into selling to an American owner. A lot of us just don’t want to give in to them,” said Samantha Manassero, a 39-year-old nurse in L.A. who downloaded Xiaohongshu on Sunday night after watching content creators on TikTok pitch it as a comparable app. “I think some of it is literally just pettiness.”
Last year, Congress passed a bill that requires TikTok’s owner, Bytedance, to sell the app to a U.S.-approved owner or face a nationwide ban. As soon as Wednesday, the Supreme Court is expected to uphold the legality of the ban.
It was unclear whether Xiaohongshu, which was started in 2013, would become a viable alternative to TikTok or if the recent migration to the Chinese platform accounts for a significant share of TikTok’s 170 million U.S. users.
But a surge in new users made Xiaohongshu the top free download on Apple’s App Store this week. No. 2 on the charts was another social media app developed by Bytedance, Lemon8. It’s unclear whether either app will be subjected to the same U.S. government scrutiny as TikTok.
It is also difficult to determine exactly how many U.S. TikTok users have created accounts on Xiaohongshu or how many will stay on it. While many Xiaohongshu regulars have welcomed the influx of Americans identifying themselves as “TikTok refugees,” the app’s interface is largely in Chinese, making it difficult to navigate for non-native speakers.
Chinese apps are subject to stringent censorship on discussions that the Chinese government deems politically sensitive. These topics can range from illegal activities to LGBTQ+ rights to Winnie the Pooh, images of which have been used to mock Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The Chinese version of TikTok, called Douyin, has different content restrictions and is only available for mobile download in China. Bytedance has argued that TikTok, which is used by the rest of the world, is a separate entity from Douyin and not beholden to the Chinese Communist Party.
That did not stop President-elect Donald Trump from proposing a ban of TikTok in 2020, or President Biden from signing it into law in 2024.
The legality of such a ban has been questioned several times. Last month, in an about-face, Trump, who has 14.8 million followers on TikTok, filed a legal brief requesting to stay the ban so he can negotiate a deal once he takes office.
As TikTok faces an uncertain future, Xiaohongshu’s latest arrivals were eager to try out the new app despite its foreign nature.
Manassero, who posts videos about healthcare and power lifting to about 7,000 followers on TikTok, said she already has a much larger audience of 26,000 on Instagram. However, she was motivated to create an account on Xiaohongshu partly out of frustration at the U.S. government’s determination to outlaw TikTok.
“I don’t know what I’m doing, I don’t know what I’m reading, I’m just pressing buttons,” Manassero said in her first video post. The next morning, her account had received 5,000 views and 3,500 new followers. By Tuesday, the hashtag “Tiktok refugee” had received more than 90 million views and 2 million comments.
TikTokers sought each other out with introductions, follow requests and shared tips on how to navigate the app’s Chinese functions. On Monday, more than 190,000 viewers joined a live chat named “TikTok Refugees Club,” and held discussions in English about what a TikTok ban would mean and future plans for social media content. In the comments, users greeted new arrivals and lamented they could not understand each other.
“Maybe you can learn how to speak Chinese,” one user wrote in English.
“Where’s the translator?” another viewer asked in Chinese.
On Tuesday, the Wall Street Journal reported that Chinese officials had discussed the possibility of selling TikTok to a trusted non-Chinese party such as Elon Musk, who already owns social media platform X. However, analysts said that Bytedance is unlikely to agree to a sale of the underlying algorithm that powers the app, meaning the platform under a new owner could still look drastically different.
Manassero and other TikTokers expressed distaste at the prospect of migrating to U.S. tech platforms such as Instagram or X that could benefit from an influx of users if TikTok shuts down.
“We don’t want to turn around and make a bunch of billionaires even more rich,” she said. “I would honestly rather the app get shut down than be owned by Elon Musk.”
Though she is still trying to figure out how to use Xiaohongshu and message people back, Manassero said she would likely stay on the Chinese lifestyle app regardless of whether the TikTok ban goes through.
“The response has been so friendly and nice. It’s good energy,” she said. “This feels like the early TikTok days: a little more organic, so it’s fun.”
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