Business
Column: Sorry, Joe Rogan: Scientists should never ‘debate’ anti-vaccine quacks. Here’s why
Given that we live in a world in which almost everything, including presidential politics, takes on the trappings of cheap entertainment, it’s no wonder that the purveyors of anti-vaccine and anti-science claptrap are demanding that legitimate experts validate their positions through the spectacle of public debates.
The experts are right to say no.
The most recent example of this demand erupted recently, after webcaster Joe Rogan, an enthusiastic promoter of COVID-19 conspiracy-mongers, anti-vaxxers and other sources of pseudoscientific hogwash, hosted anti-vaxxer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on his program for three hours.
I could no more sit down with RFK Jr. than I could sit down with a white supremacist and discuss eugenics. You should not give them the moral equivalence.
— Immunologist John P. Moore
When vaccine expert Peter Hotez tweeted a link to a thorough critique of Kennedy’s lies and misrepresentations by Vice.com, Rogan challenged Hotez to participate in a public debate with Kennedy.
Hotez refused, though he offered to engage Rogan — whose show he had appeared on before — one on one, a context in which Hotez was prepared to address Rogan’s misconceptions serially. Rogan treated that offer as an evasion, which led to Hotez being accosted at his home by a stranger demanding that he take the bait.
There are many reasons why serious scientists should reject these invitations. One is that it gives liars and deceivers legitimacy. “You should never equate, morally or practically, true science and pseudoscience or quackery,” says John P. Moore, professor of microbiology and immunology at Weill Cornell Medical College. “By just appearing with these people, you give them a stature that implies they’re equivalent, and they’re not.”
Moore’s insights come from his experience with AIDS denialists including the notorious Peter Duesberg starting around 1999. An expert in HIV and AIDS, he was appalled at the decision by Thabo Mbeki, the president of South Africa, to deny antiretroviral drugs such as AZT to AIDS patients in favor of herbal nostrums.
Mbeki was motivated by scientific advisors who questioned that AIDS resulted from a virus; his policies have been blamed for more than 330,000 unnecessary deaths in his country.
The denialists “were always saying, ‘come and debate with us,’” Moore told me. Serious virologists tried posting accurate information to combat the misconceptions, to little avail. “It was just a waste of time, because you were never going to persuade the hard core to change their position.”
Their refusal to engage in public debate frustrated the denialists, Moore recalls, “because they wanted the validation of being on the same stage with us.”
Another reason not to debate “gaslighters,” as Science Magazine Editor Holden Thorp labels them, is that in many cases the debate is settled. The safety and efficacy of the Moderna and Pfizer COVID-19 vaccines are well established after hundreds of millions of doses administered in the U.S. and billions worldwide.
Although rare side effects have occurred, they’re typically mild compared with the risks from contracting the disease itself — contrary to the fabricated and unethical claims of anti-vaccine propagandists such as Florida Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo.
So, too, is the uselessness against COVID of drugs such as hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin, both of which have been promoted by Kennedy. No public debate could outweigh the reams of validated evidence for their ineffectiveness.
There’s nothing new about the insistence of anti-vaxxers and other cranks and hucksters that public debates are all that’s needed to establish the truth. Nor is there anything new about the thirst of newspapers, news programs and consumers of social media posts for spectacle and clickbait, facts be damned.
The late pseudoscience debunker Robert L. Park opened his classic 2000 book “Voodoo Science” by telling the story of one Joe Newman, whose claims to have invented a machine that could produce an inexhaustible supply of energy — if only the business establishment and the patent office got out of his way — were promoted credulously by CBS News, which led to an appearance on “The Tonight Show” with Johnny Carson.
Newman rented the Superdome in New Orleans to demonstrate his machine, ending his presentation by issuing a challenge to “any PhD physicist in the crowd” to come down and debate him. The crowd began to titter as Newman shaded his eyes, pretending to look into the stands for a challenger. But scientists, properly, ignored him.
Newman, like today’s cranks, got mileage from the refusal of real scientists to debate; knowing that their challenge will go unmet, they try to use that as proof that they must be in the right.
(Park is known for the best comeback to those who claim that they are being persecuted for speaking scientific truths to power — as many of today’s pseudoscientists do: “Alas,” he wrote, “to wear the mantle of Galileo it is not enough that you be persecuted by an unkind establishment; you must also be right.”)
Scientists and experts who have accepted invitations to debate — some out of hubris, some from a genuine desire to point the public in the right direction — almost always find themselves overmatched. Often this is because scientists seldom have the training to make cogent presentations of their work in an adversarial setting; they’re more comfortable staking out their positions through painstaking exposition in writing or before conferences with their peers.
“Common ‘live public debate’ formats favor science deniers because they are not bound by science or even the truth,” observes the veteran pseudoscience debunker David Gorski. The deniers’ arsenal includes “obscure studies, bad studies, studies that don’t support their points, and even irrelevant information that superficially to nonexperts appears to support their arguments.”
Such debates treat science as a sort of cabaret act, in which “glibness, rhetorical skill, and the debater’s charisma” register “far more than facts, logic, reason, and science,” Gorski says.
That’s the malady of any debate staged for popular consumption, whether through television or social media — try to think of the last time that a presidential candidates debate yielded anything like hard information, as opposed to impressions of the participants’ demeanor, gift of gab or ability to avoid a verbal stumble or gaffe.
When science is on the agenda, the peril is even greater. The contest is often between the nuances of scientific inquiry and the cocksure bluntness of pseudoscience.
“Scientists are rooted in the truth; it’s what you’re trained to do,” Moore says. “You won’t lie, you won’t dissemble, you will often express yourself with caveats, acknowledging gray areas. They’ll come back with what they say are hard facts: ‘Vaccines kill,’ or ‘this athlete dropped dead because he was killed by a vaccine.’ You can’t deal with subtleties when you’re having blatant lies thrown at you one after another.”
Scientists are also trained to look at the totality of evidence when taking a position, Moore says. “The anti-vaxxers or denialists will cherry-pick factoids. Scientific literature is so vast and so mixed in quality that you can always find something that is going to support your position. We are trained as professionals to tune out the occasional outrider that is the product of incompetent or twisted science.”
Even people skilled at communicating scientific principles to nonexperts have been lured into the debate trap. One is Neil DeGrasse Tyson, the most renowned science communicator in the world today. In April, Tyson allowed himself to be enticed into a webcast debate with anti-vaccine crusader Del Bigtree. He must have thought that his command of the art of public speaking would allow him to hold up his end.
He was wrong. Tyson’s first mistake was to agree to appear on Bigtree’s webcast, rather than in some neutral setting. But his main problem was that, as an astrophysicist, he simply did not have the knowledge to counter Bigtree’s torrent of anti-vaccination propaganda. The result was a train wreck for legitimate science in which the anti-vax position prevailed, or such was the impression that was left.
The “debate me” agitators assert that research only gains from being subjected to inquiry. That’s true, but it doesn’t gain from being subjected to criticism from people unfamiliar with the underlying science and arguing from a position of ignorance.
Their goal is merely to sow doubt, for their own interests and often for political goals. The attacks on Hotez, on Anthony Fauci — one of Kennedy’s targets — and on science in general have a clear partisan slant. Deniers of global warming and of the link between tobacco and cancer have been carrying water for the big businesses that profit from fossil fuels and cigarettes.
They’ve made common cause with anti-vaxxers because they see an opportunity to make political hay for Republican and conservative interests. (Never mind that the COVID-19 vaccines were developed during the Trump administration; even Trump has provided a platform for vaccine deniers.)
But the consequences of their campaigns can be measured in sickness and death. The anti-vaccine movement is complicit in the unnecessary deaths of hundreds of thousands of people in the U.S. alone by discouraging people from getting the shot.
That may be the best reason for responsible scientists to reject invitations to debate. “The spread of vaccine disinformation has hurt a very, very large number of people in a very horrible way,” Moore says.
“That’s the moral dimension,” he says. “You cannot forget what these people have done. I could no more sit down with RFK Jr. than I could sit down with a white supremacist and discuss eugenics. You should not give them the moral equivalence.”
Business
On TikTok, Users Thumb Their Noses at Looming Ban
Over the last week, the videos started appearing on TikTok from users across the United States.
They all made fun of the same thing: how the app’s ties to China made it a national security threat. Many implied that their TikTok accounts had each been assigned an agent of the Chinese government to spy on them through the app — and that the users would miss their personal spies.
“May we meet again in another life,” one user wrote in a video goodbye set to Whitney Houston’s cover of Dolly Parton’s “I Will Always Love You.” The video included an A.I.-generated image of a Chinese military officer.
The videos were just one way that some of TikTok’s 170 million monthly U.S. users were reacting as they prepared for the app to disappear from the country as soon as Sunday.
The Supreme Court is set to rule on a federal law that required TikTok’s Chinese owner, ByteDance, to sell the app by Jan. 19 or face a ban in the United States. U.S. officials have said China could use TikTok to harvest Americans’ private data and spread covert disinformation. TikTok, which has said a sale is impossible and challenged the law, is now awaiting the Supreme Court’s response.
The possibility that the justices will uphold the law has set off a palpable sense of grief and dark humor across the app. Some users have posted videos suggesting ways to circumvent a ban with technological workarounds. Others have downloaded another Chinese app, Xiaohongshu, also known as “Red Note,” to thumb their noses at the U.S. government’s concerns about TikTok’s ties to China.
The videos highlight the collision taking place online between the law, which Congress passed with wide support last year, and everyday users of TikTok, who are dismayed that the app may soon disappear.
“Much of my TikTok feed now is TikTokers ridiculing the U.S. government, TikTokers thanking their Chinese spy as a form of ridicule,” said Anupam Chander, a professor of law and technology at Georgetown University and an expert on the global regulation of new technologies. “TikTokers recognize that they are not likely to be manipulated by anyone. They are actually quite sophisticated about the information they’re receiving.”
TikTok declined to comment on the users’ references to its ties to China.
Some users are not willing to give up the app — or their supposed spies — so easily.
Hundreds of TikTok videos over the last week have cataloged how teenagers could keep using the app in the United States, according to a review by The New York Times. One of the most popular methods described is the use of a VPN, or a virtual private network, which can mask a user’s location and make it appear that the person is elsewhere.
“They can’t actually ban TikTok in the U.S. because VPNs are not banned,” Sasha Casey, a TikTok user, said in a recent video that was liked over 60,000 times. “Use a VPN. And send a picture to Congress while you do it, because that’s what I’ll be doing.”
While VPNs can make it appear that a phone, a laptop or another electronic device is in a remote location, it is not clear if the technology can circumvent the ban. A device’s real location is stored in many places, including in the app store that was used to download TikTok.
TikTok fans also seem to be behind the sudden surge in popularity for Xiaohongshu, the most downloaded free app on Tuesday and Wednesday in the U.S. Apple Store. Hundreds of millions of people in China use the app, which, like TikTok, features short videos and text-based posts. Xiaohongshu means “little red book” in Mandarin.
Mr. Chander anticipates that the Supreme Court will uphold the ban law this week, though he believes that TikTok has the winning case. He said the downloads of Red Note and the Chinese spy memes showed that many Americans did not agree with their government’s security concerns, particularly at the expense of free speech.
“When the United States shutters a massive free expression service, which our democratic allies have not shuttered, it will make us the censor and put us in the unusual position of silencing expression,” Mr. Chander said. “It will make Americans who use TikTok really distrustful of the U.S. government as carrying their best interests.”
Business
Edison stock turns volatile as growing blame for wildfires lands on the power company
Southern California’s catastrophic fires have rocked the stock of Edison International, the parent company of Southern California Edison, as accusations and lawsuits about the utility’s potential role in starting the fires mount.
Shares of Edison International closed up 5% at $61.30 on Wednesday after plunging 23% this month, making it one of the worst performers on the Standard & Poor’s 500. The rebound came after Ladenburg Thalmann analysts upgraded their rating of the stock to neutral from sell, saying that their target price of $56.50 a share reflected worst-case outcomes associated with the current wildfires.
“At this time, it is too early to discern what the outcomes will be with respect to the impact of the fires on the California Wildfire Insurance Fund solvency and/or the future earnings of Edison International,” the analysts wrote, according to Barron’s. “An initial assessment of SCE’s role in the start of the fires will likely not occur until the summer of 2025 at the earliest.”
State lawmakers established the wildfire fund in the wake of wildfires several years ago after Wall Street investors lost confidence and ratings agencies threatened to downgrade California’s investor-owned utilities.
Market analyst Zacks downgraded Edison International stock from outperform to neutral after the fires started last week. Zacks predicted Edison’s operating revenue would increase during 2025 and 2026, while acknowledging that “the company has been incurring significant wildfire-related costs” and that “higher-than-expected decommissioning costs could materially impact the company’s operating results.”
RBC Capital Markets, another analyst, had a loftier view of Edison as recently as October when it called the utility “a high quality operator, with investor confidence around wildfire risk improving from best in class mitigation efforts.”
The fallout from the fires is an abrupt disruption for a company that had been surging in recent months. In its most recent quarterly report, the company posted a profit of $516 million, or $1.33 per share, compared with $155 million, or 40 cent per share, in the third quarter of last year.
“Our team has achieved remarkable success over the last several years managing unprecedented climate challenges, making our operations more resilient and positioning us strongly for the growth ahead,” President Pedro J. Pizarro said in the report.
Fire agencies are investigating whether downed Southern California Edison utility equipment played a role in igniting the 800-acre Hurst fire near Sylmar, company officials have acknowledged.
The company issued a report Friday saying that a downed conductor was discovered at a tower in the vicinity of the Hurst fire, but that it “does not know whether the damage observed occurred before or after the start of the fire.” The fire is nearly fully contained, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection.
SCE is also under scrutiny for possibly being involved in sparking the Eaton fire that has burned 14,000 acres and destroyed thousands of structures, wiping out whole swaths of Altadena, where at least 16 people died in the blaze.
On Tuesday the Newport Beach law firm of Bridgford, Gleason & Artinian filed a mass action complaint in Los Angeles Superior Court against SCE regarding the Eaton fire on behalf of victims including Jeremy Gursey, whose Altadena property was destroyed in the fire.
“Based upon our investigation, our discussions with various consultants, the public statements of SCE, and the video evidence of the fire’s origin, we believe that the Eaton Fire was ignited because of SCE’s failure to de-energize its overhead wires which traverse Eaton Canyon—despite a red flag PDS wind warning issued by the national weather service the day before the ignition of the fire,” lawyer Richard Bridgford said in a statement.
The firm said it has represented more than 10,000 California fire victims in past suits against Pacific Gas & Electric Co. and SCE. Bridgford told Yahoo Finance that his inbox is full of Southern California residents seeking to participate in the Eaton fire lawsuit and that he anticipates “there’ll be hundreds joining.”
The most extreme level of a red flag fire warning, a “particularly dangerous situation,” returned to parts of Los Angeles and Ventura counties Wednesday morning, heightening concerns about the potential for new fires.
“The danger has not yet passed,” Los Angeles Fire Department Chief Kristin Crowley said during a news conference Wednesday. “So please prioritize your safety.”
Business
Albania Gives Jared Kushner Hotel Project a Nod as Trump Returns
The government of Albania has given preliminary approval to a plan proposed by Jared Kushner, Donald J. Trump’s son-in-law, to build a $1.4 billion luxury hotel complex on a small abandoned military base off the coast of Albania.
The project is one of several involving Mr. Trump and his extended family that directly involve foreign government entities that will be moving ahead even while Mr. Trump will be in charge of foreign policy related to these same nations.
The approval by Albania’s Strategic Investment Committee — which is led by Prime Minister Edi Rama — gives Mr. Kushner and his business partners the right to move ahead with accelerated negotiations to build the luxury resort on a 111-acre section of the 2.2-square-mile island of Sazan that will be connected by ferry to the mainland.
Mr. Kushner and the Albanian government did not respond Wednesday to requests for comment. But when previously asked about this project, both have said that the evaluation is not being influenced by Mr. Kushner’s ties to Mr. Trump or any effort to try to seek favors from the U.S. government.
“The fact that such a renowned American entrepreneur shows his interest on investing in Albania makes us very proud and happy,” a spokesman for Mr. Rama said last year in a statement to The New York Times when asked about the projects.
Mr. Kushner’s Affinity Partners, a private equity company backed with about $4.6 billion in money mostly from Saudi Arabia and other Middle East sovereign wealth funds, is pursuing the Albania project along with Asher Abehsera, a real-estate executive that Mr. Kushner has previously teamed up with to build projects in Brooklyn, N.Y.
The Albanian government, according to an official document recently posted online, will now work with their American partners to clear the proposed hotel site of any potential buried munitions and to examine any other environmental or legal concerns that need to be resolved before the project can move ahead.
The document, dated Dec. 30, notes that the government “has the right to revoke the decision,” depending on the final project negotiations.
Mr. Kushner’s firm has said the plan is to build a five-star “eco-resort community” on the island by turning a “former military base into a vibrant international destination for hospitality and wellness.”
Ivanka Trump, Mr. Trump’s daughter, has said she is helping with the project as well. “We will execute on it,” she said about the project, during a podcast last year.
This project is just one of two major real-estate deals that Mr. Kushner is pursuing along with Mr. Abehsera that involve foreign governments.
Separately, the partnership received preliminary approval last year to build a luxury hotel complex in Belgrade, Serbia, in the former ministry of defense building, which has sat empty for decades after it was bombed by NATO in 1999 during a war there.
Serbia and Albania have foreign policy matters pending with the United States, as both countries seek continued U.S. support for their long-stalled efforts to join the European Union, and officials in Washington are trying to convince Serbia to tighten ties with the United States, instead of Russia.
Virginia Canter, who served as White House ethics lawyer during the Obama and Clinton administrations and also an ethics adviser to the International Monetary Fund, said even if there was no attempt to gain influence with Mr. Trump, any government deal involving his family creates that impression.
“It all looks like favoritism, like they are providing access to Kushner because they want to be on the good side of Trump,” Ms. Canter said, now with State Democracy Defenders Fund, a group that tracks federal government corruption and ethics issues.
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