Business
China’s Tax Revenue Declines as Its Leaders Brace for Trump’s Tariffs
Buried in China’s latest government budget were some numbers that add up to an alarming trend. Tax revenue is dropping.
The decline means that China’s national government has less money to address the country’s serious economic challenges, including a housing market crash and the near bankruptcy of hundreds of local governments.
Weak tax revenue also puts China’s leaders in a box as they square off with President Trump, who has imposed 20 percent tariffs on goods from China and threatened more to come. Beijing has less spare cash to help the export industries that are driving economic growth but could be hurt by tariffs.
The drop in tax collections leaves China’s leaders in an unfamiliar position. Until the last several years, China enjoyed robust revenue, which it used to invest in infrastructure, a rapid military buildup and extensive industrial subsidies. Even as economic growth has slowed gradually over the past 12 years, taking a dent out of consumer spending, tax revenue held fairly steady until recently.
Tax revenue fell further last year than ever before. And the only two previous declines in recent decades were under special circumstances: In 2020, China imposed an essentially nationwide pandemic lockdown for a couple of months, and in 2022, Shanghai endured a two-month lockdown.
China’s declining tax revenue now has several causes. A big one is deflation — a broad decline in prices. Companies and now the Chinese government find themselves with less money to make monthly payments on their debts.
Since September, Chinese officials have promised several times that they were on the cusp of doing what practically every foreign and Chinese economist recommends: spending more money to help the country’s beleaguered consumers with such measures as higher pensions, better medical benefits, more unemployment insurance or restaurant vouchers. But again and again, including on Sunday, they have laid out ambitious programs without providing more than a smidgen of extra spending.
The usual explanation for the frugality lies in longstanding opposition from Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, who warned in a speech in 2021 that China “must not aim too high or go overboard with social security, and steer clear of the idleness-breeding trap of welfarism.”
But China’s 2025 budget, which the Ministry of Finance released on March 5, suggests a different explanation: The national government may not have the money. Despite record borrowing, it would be hard-pressed to find the money needed to stimulate consumption.
Overall tax revenue fell 3.4 percent last year. That might not look like a lot. But it is a sizable divergence from the overall economy, which according to official statistics grew 5 percent before being adjusted for deflation.
Falling tax revenue means that China’s budget deficits are widening not because of extra government spending to help the economy, but because there is less money coming into the till. The problem has been worsening for years at local governments, which have plummeting revenues from selling state land, and has spread to the national government.
Fitch Ratings calculates that overall revenue for the national and local governments — including taxes and land sales — totaled 29 percent of the economy’s output as recently as 2018. But this year’s budget indicates that overall revenue will be just 21.1 percent of the economy in 2025.
Roughly half of the decline comes from plummeting revenue from land sales, a well-documented problem related to the housing-market crash, but the rest comes from weakness in tax revenue, a new problem.
That adds up to a huge sum of money. If overall revenue had kept up with the economy over the past seven years, the Chinese government would have another $1.5 trillion to spend in 2025.
China announced this month that it would allow its official target for the budget deficit to increase to 4 percent this year, after trying to keep it near 3 percent ever since the global financial crisis in 2009. But analysts say the true deficit is already much larger, because China is quietly counting a lot of long-term borrowing as though it were tax revenue.
Comparing spending only with actual revenue, without the borrowing, the Finance Ministry’s budget shows a deficit equal to almost 9 percent of the economy. In 2018, it was only 3.2 percent.
“Deficits are quite high and debt is rising quite quickly, so they are fiscally challenged,” said Jeremy Zook, a director of Asia and Pacific sovereign ratings at Fitch.
The biggest taxes in China are value-added taxes, a kind of sales tax that the government collects on practically every transaction, from rent to refrigerators. Last year, revenue from value-added taxes fell short of expectations by 7.9 percent.
The word “deflation” is prohibited in official Chinese documents, so the ministry came up with a euphemistic explanation: “This decrease was mainly due to the fact that the producer prices were lower than expected.”
Producer prices, essentially wholesale prices calculated as goods leave factories and farms, fell 2.3 percent in China last year.
Revenue from value-added taxes began weakening in 2018. That was when the government cut these taxes sharply for exporters to help them offset the impact of tariffs imposed by President Trump in his first term.
The cost of that tax break has soared since then as China’s exports have surged, producing a trade surplus of almost $1 trillion last year even as the rest of the economy stagnated.
Another problem lies in falling salaries and rising layoffs, especially during the second half of last year. Income taxes collected from individuals were 7.5 percent below expectations last year, the Finance Ministry said in its budget.
China’s own steep tariffs on imports are another large source of revenue. But having lost much of their savings in the housing market crash, China’s consumers have cut back on purchases of imports like handbags and perfume, while prices have fallen for many imported goods. So revenue from customs duties was 9.2 percent below forecasts last year, the Finance Ministry said.
This year’s financial picture could be even worse than the budget anticipates. The Finance Ministry’s budget repeated many of the same optimistic assumptions about tax revenue and overall economic performance that it made last year.
Governments in the West derive considerable revenue from taxes on investment gains, inheritances and real estate. But China has no taxes on investment gains or inheritances and almost none on real estate.
The general lack of real estate taxes lies at the root of a separate problem: China’s local governments are also running out of money. Until recently, they derived up to 80 percent of their revenues from selling land to property developers.
But those sales have plummeted since the housing crash began in 2021, which has gutted demand for new apartments and bankrupted many developers.
Local governments are responsible for most pensions, medical benefits and other social spending in China. The national government has been selling extra bonds to raise money for bailing out the weakest local governments, many of which are behind on their debts. The national government has called for local governments to step up social spending but, short on cash itself, has offered scant new financial assistance.
And new taxes are not likely forthcoming, according to Jia Kang, a retired research director at the Finance Ministry and still one of China’s most influential voices on tax policy. He said in an interview that public opposition to inheritance taxes is strong, while taxes on investment gains or real estate would hurt stocks or the housing market.
One factor not causing China’s tax challenges is fraud or tax evasion, Mr. Jia said. The procedures for checking on payments have become very detailed, he said. “It is difficult to cheat in this system.”
Siyi Zhao contributed research.
Business
Value of Huntington Beach defense tech startup balloons to $1.8 billion
California defense tech startup Mach Industries said Tuesday it raised $300 million, nearly quadrupling the company’s valuation to $1.8 billion within a year.
The Huntington Beach startup’s soaring valuation underscores how defense tech funding is booming as armed conflicts such as the Iran war and the Russian-Ukrainian war continue. Infinite Capital and Ribbit Capital led Mach Industries’ Series C funding round.
“We’re delivering advanced unmanned systems at the pace the threat environment demands, and we’re grateful to our investors for believing in our ability to strengthen American and allied superiority on the battlefield,” Mach Industries Chief Executive Ethan Thornton said in a statement.
Thornton, 22, launched the Huntington Beach defense tech startup in 2023 after dropping out of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, where he studied aerospace engineering.
The startup builds drones and other defense systems, developing products such as Viper, its vertical-takeoff strike vehicle; Glide, its high-altitude glider capable of launching weapons; and Stratos, its airborne satellite platform for surveillance.
Well-known venture capital firms such as Sequoia Capital, Khosla Ventures and Bedrock Capital have backed the defense tech startup.
The funding will help Mach Industries expand its manufacturing, advance its technology and deepen its partnerships with customers that include the U.S. Army and Air Force, according to a news release about the funding round. The startup has been growing its business, acquiring rocket-maker Exquadrum for $50 million in April.
As the Trump administration pushes to modernize and expand the U.S. military by partnering with major technology companies, some tech workers at companies such as Google, Amazon, Anthropic and OpenAI are raising concerns about the use of artificial intelligence in autonomous weapons and mass surveillance.
Despite these worries, some of the world’s largest tech companies are increasing their work with the U.S. military. In April, eight technology companies, including Google, Nvidia and SpaceX, struck a deal with the Pentagon to strengthen the U.S. military and establish an “AI-first fighting force.”
The effort has also benefited defense tech startups and AI companies that work with the military. Southern California has been a hub for aerospace and defense tech companies, including Costa Mesa-based Anduril Industries, which reached a $61-billion valuation this year.
Business
Trump announces new coal export terminal in Oakland
President Trump on Thursday said he will invoke Cold War-era emergency powers to direct a nearly $700-million investment into the waning coal industry, including construction of a new West Coast coal export terminal in Oakland.
Speaking from the White House, Trump said he will use the Defense Production Act, a 1950 law that grants the president emergency authority over domestic industries deemed critical to national security, to construct a new export terminal on the West Coast for the first time to move supplies overseas. He also announced the upgrading of 13 existing coal plants across the country, the construction of two new coal plants in Alaska and West Virginia, and restarting a shuttered coal plant in Maryland.
“Today we’re taking historic action to bring down the price of energy and the cost of living for all Americans with the power of clean, beautiful coal,” Trump said. He was joined by U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, Environmental Protection Agency administration Lee Zeldin and other top officials.
Trump and his energy advisors have said coal power is a matter of national security because of rising energy costs, primarily from the growth of artificial intelligence data centers. He declared a national energy emergency on his first day back in office, which was aimed at boosting domestic fossil fuel production.
High energy costs have also become an issue for voters, with residential electricity bills increasing nearly 11% since Trump resumed office in January 2025, according to the latest available data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
The effort to establish a West Coast coal export terminal revives a fight that has played out repeatedly in recent years.
Beginning around 2010, the coal industry began pushing for new export sites in California, Oregon and Washington that would deliver coal from landlocked western states to energy-hungry markets in Asia. Those plans met fierce opposition from environmental groups and local communities concerned about climate impacts, coal dust, rail traffic and other potential downsides.
The plans were eventually abandoned, leaving the West Coast without a major U.S. coal export terminal — until now.
“Starting this summer, the West Gateway project will break ground and by summer 2028, over 12 million tons of clean beautiful coal per year will be shipped to countries all around the world,” Trump said.
While the administration leaned on coal as an energy cost solution, opponents said the move will actually increase soaring electricity prices — noting that renewables are generally cheaper than coal when it comes to new power generation in the U.S. A recent report from the nonpartisan think tank Energy Innovation found that 99% of all U.S. coal plants are now more expensive to run than replacement by new local solar, wind or energy storage.
“President Trump’s continued attempt to bail out the coal industry endangers public health and leaves Americans footing the bill for more expensive power,” said Shannon Baker-Branstetter, senior director for climate and energy policy at the Center for American Progress.
Baker-Branstetter noted that coal use has been declining for years due to market forces. At the same time, she said pouring taxpayer dollars into a new export facility “means there is no benefit at all to U.S. consumers, while the export terminals would burden communities next to the port with deadly soot pollution.”
The burning of coal is one of the largest drivers of air pollution, releasing fine particles known to be harmful to respiratory and cardiovascular health. At the same time, coal is a leading driver of human-caused climate change, responsible for about 40% of global greenhouse gas emissions from fuel combustion.
The move also follows the Trump administration’s ongoing efforts to slow U.S. investment in renewable energy, particularly offshore wind power, electric vehicle initiatives and federal funding for solar projects.
“We wouldn’t have the buildings, the factories, the industry, the electricity grid we have today without the critical contribution of coal, the largest source of global electricity for 125 years in a row, and will be for decades to come,” said Wright, the U.S. Energy Secretary.
But investing in coal in 2026 is akin to “a taxpayer bailout to build new phone booths,” said Kit Kennedy, managing director for power at the nonprofit Natural Resources Defense Council.
“The Trump administration’s claim that this has to do with national security is just another false pretext,” Kennedy said. “Instead of bailing out dirty energy, why don’t they end their attacks on cheap, plentiful wind and solar power? That’s the surest way to cut our bills and end our dependence on volatile global energy markets.”
Kennedy added that the latest action from the White House will result in higher bills and dirtier air for Americans.
“The best thing for the air, the climate and our utility bills is to let these plants retire peacefully,” she said.
Business
How Google’s 32-million mosquito project could change California’s battle against dengue
Google took internet searches to the next level. Could it do the same for mosquito control?
The Silicon Valley-based tech giant is seeking to release up to 64 million sterilized male mosquitoes in California and Florida over two years, according to a notice in the Federal Register. It’s part of an ambitious effort to curb the diseases the insects spread.
Google says it can harness technology to optimize a concept that’s been around for decades, but hasn’t been successfully scaled with mosquitoes to rein in disease.
For example, the process often involves separating the insects by sex to isolate the males. Currently, that’s done manually and can be time consuming. Google says it’s “developing new technologies that combine sensors, algorithms and novel engineering to take advantage of unique aspects of mosquito biology to quickly and accurately sort males from females.”
The company also says it’s building software and monitoring tools to guide releases of sterile males, and its scientists and engineers are creating sensors, traps and software to decide which areas need to be treated and treated again.
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Called Debug, the project targets Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, which are native to Africa but have infiltrated nearly half of California’s counties since first being detected in the state in 2013. Not only do they drive residents nuts with itchy bites, but they can carry a number of potentially serious diseases, including dengue, Zika, chikungunya and yellow fever.
The plan is to infect males — which don’t bite — with a bacteria called Wolbachia, which effectively renders them sterile. They are then released to seek out wild females and mate. Females will lay eggs but these won’t hatch, which experts say drives down the population over time.
There are other methods to sterilize male mosquitoes. Vector control districts serving Los Angeles, Orange and San Bernardino counties have irradiated males and released them in recent years.
Early results are promising. Two neighborhoods treated by the Greater Los Angeles Vector Control District saw a more than 80% reduction in the female Aedes aegypti population in 2024 and 2025.
But as the Greater L.A. district seeks to expand its operations, cost poses a problem. Last year, business owners signaled they weren’t willing to shell out more every year to make it happen. District officials are still hoping to sway them.
If Google moves forward, it wouldn’t be the first time it has been involved in such an effort. In 2018, the company conducted a large-scale trial in Fresno County, releasing 14.4 million Wolbachia-infected males in three neighborhoods.
“At peak mosquito season, the number of female mosquitoes was 95.5% lower in release areas compared to non-release areas, with the most geographically isolated neighborhood reaching a 99% reduction,” a 2020 paper reported.
Google has applied for a permit from the Environmental Protection Agency to carry out the releases in California and Florida, for which the federal agency is currently seeking comments before deciding whether to grant approval.
The company aims to release up to 16 million Wolbachia-infected males in California, and the same in Florida, per year for two years, the Federal Register announcement said, for a total of 64 million.
Urgency to tamp down the invasive mosquito population in California has increased since 2023, when the state logged its first locally acquired dengue cases — meaning people were infected in their communities, not while traveling. The following year, the number of locally acquired cases ballooned to 18, with 14 of them in Los Angeles County.
A study published last week in “The Lancet Regional Health — Americas” found that approximately 18.2 million Californians — primarily in the Central Valley, L.A. and San Diego areas — live in regions where conditions are probably suitable for local dengue transmission.
“Under moderate scenarios of climate warming and urban expansion, an additional 4.1 million residents may be at risk by mid-century,” according to the study led by UC Berkeley’s Lisa Couper. Researchers note the current and future risk of transmission remains low except during summer in the Central Valley and Southern California.
“I’m pretty much in favor of whichever [sterile insect technique] approach gets us the disease prevention and nuisance control we need and at the lowest price,” Susanne Kluh, general manager of the Greater L.A. County Vector Control District, said in an email.
She said her district went with radiation because it was the only approved technique when they wanted to launch their pilot, and that it’s “also the only one where some company does not make a profit in the middle.” However, she wouldn’t rule out using Wolbachia if it turned out to be the most affordable option.
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