Business
As more Californians fall behind in making debt payments, one group stands out
Stubbornly high inflation and interest rates are taking an increasing toll in California as the state experiences rising unemployment and slowing wage gains. And those feeling it the hardest: the largest and perhaps most budget-minded generation of them all.
Millennials, those roughly 28 to 43 years old, are generally thought to be more averse to debt and better savers than earlier cohorts such as Gen X (44 to 59 years old) and baby boomers (60 to 78).
But new data from the California Policy Lab at UC Berkeley show that while consumer debts overall are growing and becoming more difficult to manage for all but the very oldest generation in America, millennials are having the most trouble making their loan payments on time.
In the first quarter, 7.6% of millennial borrowers were at least 30 days late in making monthly payments on their credit card, auto and other loans. That compares with 6% of Gen X, 5.5% of Gen Z (ages 18 to 27) and 3.3% of boomers who fell behind on their loans. The earlier Silent and Greatest generations had even lower delinquency rates.
Unlike for Gen X-ers and boomers, the overall loan delinquency rate among millennials — who make up about one-fourth of California’s population — has now climbed above pre-pandemic levels. And economists worry that financial pressures will only continue to mount, especially with an end to the student loan repayment pause. Among other things, millennials are known for carrying a lot of college loan debt.
“I see no reason to believe that delinquencies aren’t going to be tracking higher,” said Evan B. White, the California Policy Lab’s executive director.
Foreclosures and personal bankruptcies for all ages are still very low by historical standards, as is the percentage of after-tax income that households are spending on making debt payments, another important indicator of financial stress.
Even so, consumers in California and across the country have been taking on more debt in recent quarters, including credit card borrowing. And 30-day delinquencies have been creeping higher — an early warning sign of potential trouble ahead.
Thus far consumer spending, which accounts for most of the nation’s economic growth, has held up well. But many people are feeling the effects of what’s been an extended period of high inflation and interest rates. A pullback by consumers could have a significant effect on the broader economy.
In the Federal Reserve’s annual report on the economic well-being of Americans, also released this week, about two-thirds of adults surveyed said that changes in the prices they paid in 2023 compared with the prior year had made their financial situation worse. And one-fifth of them said inflation had made things much worse.
The Fed report found that 72% of adults were at least “doing OK” financially, similar to the 73% figure in 2022 but well below the recent high of 78% in 2021.
U.S. households continue to benefit from a strong labor market, including solid, if slightly smaller, gains in wages. The nation’s unemployment rate was 3.9% in April, the 27th straight month in which the jobless figure has been below 4% — the longest such stretch since the 1960s.
California’s employment situation, however, has not been as strong. The pace of job gains statewide has lagged behind the nation’s. And California’s unemployment rate of 5.3% last month was the highest in the country, reflecting weakness in key sectors such as entertainment, high tech, and business and professional services. The number of unemployed workers in the state has increased by 164,000 over the last 12 months, according to California’s Employment Development Department.
Meanwhile, wage growth has slowed more in California than for the nation overall — and it’s now running below the rate of inflation, meaning workers’ purchasing power is shrinking.
In the 12 months ending in April, the average hourly earnings for all private employees in California were up 1.4% from the prior year. That’s less than half the rate of both wage growth and inflation for the United States. In contrast, from 2016 to 2022, California employees saw wage gains averaging 3% to 6% per year.
Nationally, aside from student loans, delinquencies on all types of consumer debt have been steadily rising since the end of 2021, according to the New York Fed.
During the first two years of COVID-19, consumers paid down their debts significantly, thanks in part to stimulus checks and other government programs. But since then, credit card delinquencies, in particular, have risen above pre-pandemic levels, and an increasing share of borrowers are maxing out on their plastic, most of them younger adults.
Why millennials seem to be struggling more financially may seem puzzling at first. They’re the best-educated generation and the first to grow up in the digital age. But many millennials also had the misfortune of entering their formative adult lives amid the Great Recession that began in late 2007 and left a trail of job and financial hardships for some years. Saddled with student loans and other debt, they have been slower to move out of their parents’ homes, start families and build wealth compared with earlier generations.
More recently, with home mortgage rates and home prices having soared, many millennials are stuck in apartments and feeling the squeeze of higher rents and prices for certain services that they are likely to need given their stage in life, like day care.
In fact, the Fed’s economic well-being report found that while there was little change for most population groups between 2022 and last year, one notable exception was parents living with their children under age 18. Given that women are having children later, this group would include a disproportionate share of millennials.
“Those are years when you’re moving into higher expenses of buying homes, buying cars and even setting aside money for children’s college,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com, which has studied generational differences in handling debt. “When we’ve experienced the type of inflation we’ve had, that really puts the squeeze on tight budgets.”
Business
They graduated from Stanford. Due to AI, they can’t find a job
A Stanford software engineering degree used to be a golden ticket. Artificial intelligence has devalued it to bronze, recent graduates say.
The elite students are shocked by the lack of job offers as they finish studies at what is often ranked as the top university in America.
When they were freshmen, ChatGPT hadn’t yet been released upon the world. Today, AI can code better than most humans.
Top tech companies just don’t need as many fresh graduates.
“Stanford computer science graduates are struggling to find entry-level jobs” with the most prominent tech brands, said Jan Liphardt, associate professor of bioengineering at Stanford University. “I think that’s crazy.”
While the rapidly advancing coding capabilities of generative AI have made experienced engineers more productive, they have also hobbled the job prospects of early-career software engineers.
Stanford students describe a suddenly skewed job market, where just a small slice of graduates — those considered “cracked engineers” who already have thick resumes building products and doing research — are getting the few good jobs, leaving everyone else to fight for scraps.
“There’s definitely a very dreary mood on campus,” said a recent computer science graduate who asked not to be named so they could speak freely. “People [who are] job hunting are very stressed out, and it’s very hard for them to actually secure jobs.”
The shake-up is being felt across California colleges, including UC Berkeley, USC and others. The job search has been even tougher for those with less prestigious degrees.
Eylul Akgul graduated last year with a degree in computer science from Loyola Marymount University. She wasn’t getting offers, so she went home to Turkey and got some experience at a startup. In May, she returned to the U.S., and still, she was “ghosted” by hundreds of employers.
“The industry for programmers is getting very oversaturated,” Akgul said.
The engineers’ most significant competitor is getting stronger by the day. When ChatGPT launched in 2022, it could only code for 30 seconds at a time. Today’s AI agents can code for hours, and do basic programming faster with fewer mistakes.
Data suggests that even though AI startups like OpenAI and Anthropic are hiring many people, it is not offsetting the decline in hiring elsewhere. Employment for specific groups, such as early-career software developers between the ages of 22 and 25 has declined by nearly 20% from its peak in late 2022, according to a Stanford study.
It wasn’t just software engineers, but also customer service and accounting jobs that were highly exposed to competition from AI. The Stanford study estimated that entry-level hiring for AI-exposed jobs declined 13% relative to less-exposed jobs such as nursing.
In the Los Angeles region, another study estimated that close to 200,000 jobs are exposed. Around 40% of tasks done by call center workers, editors and personal finance experts could be automated and done by AI, according to an AI Exposure Index curated by resume builder MyPerfectResume.
Many tech startups and titans have not been shy about broadcasting that they are cutting back on hiring plans as AI allows them to do more programming with fewer people.
Anthropic Chief Executive Dario Amodei said that 70% to 90% of the code for some products at his company is written by his company’s AI, called Claude. In May, he predicted that AI’s capabilities will increase until close to 50% of all entry-level white-collar jobs might be wiped out in five years.
A common sentiment from hiring managers is that where they previously needed ten engineers, they now only need “two skilled engineers and one of these LLM-based agents,” which can be just as productive, said Nenad Medvidović, a computer science professor at the University of Southern California.
“We don’t need the junior developers anymore,” said Amr Awadallah, CEO of Vectara, a Palo Alto-based AI startup. “The AI now can code better than the average junior developer that comes out of the best schools out there.”
To be sure, AI is still a long way from causing the extinction of software engineers. As AI handles structured, repetitive tasks, human engineers’ jobs are shifting toward oversight.
Today’s AIs are powerful but “jagged,” meaning they can excel at certain math problems yet still fail basic logic tests and aren’t consistent. One study found that AI tools made experienced developers 19% slower at work, as they spent more time reviewing code and fixing errors.
Students should focus on learning how to manage and check the work of AI as well as getting experience working with it, said John David N. Dionisio, a computer science professor at LMU.
Stanford students say they are arriving at the job market and finding a split in the road; capable AI engineers can find jobs, but basic, old-school computer science jobs are disappearing.
As they hit this surprise speed bump, some students are lowering their standards and joining companies they wouldn’t have considered before. Some are creating their own startups. A large group of frustrated grads are deciding to continue their studies to beef up their resumes and add more skills needed to compete with AI.
“If you look at the enrollment numbers in the past two years, they’ve skyrocketed for people wanting to do a fifth-year master’s,” the Stanford graduate said. “It’s a whole other year, a whole other cycle to do recruiting. I would say, half of my friends are still on campus doing their fifth-year master’s.”
After four months of searching, LMU graduate Akgul finally landed a technical lead job at a software consultancy in Los Angeles. At her new job, she uses AI coding tools, but she feels like she has to do the work of three developers.
Universities and students will have to rethink their curricula and majors to ensure that their four years of study prepare them for a world with AI.
“That’s been a dramatic reversal from three years ago, when all of my undergraduate mentees found great jobs at the companies around us,” Stanford’s Liphardt said. “That has changed.”
Business
Disney+ to be part of a streaming bundle in Middle East
Walt Disney Co. is expanding its presence in the Middle East, inking a deal with Saudi media conglomerate MBC Group and UAE firm Anghami to form a streaming bundle.
The bundle will allow customers in Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE to access a trio of streaming services — Disney+; MBC Group’s Shahid, which carries Arabic originals, live sports and events; and Anghami’s OSN+, which carries Arabic productions as well as Hollywood content.
The trio bundle costs AED89.99 per month, which is the price of two of the streaming services.
“This deal reflects a shared ambition between Disney+, Shahid and the MBC Group to shape the future of entertainment in the Middle East, a region that is seeing dynamic growth in the sector,” Karl Holmes, senior vice president and general manager of Disney+ EMEA, said in a statement.
Disney has already indicated it plans to grow in the Middle East.
Earlier this year, the company announced it would be building a new theme park in Abu Dhabi in partnership with local firm Miral, which would provide the capital, construction resources and operational oversight. Under the terms of the agreement, Disney would oversee the parks’ design, license its intellectual property and provide “operational expertise,” as well as collect a royalty.
Disney executives said at the time that the decision to build in the Middle East was a way to reach new audiences who were too far from the company’s current hubs in the U.S., Europe and Asia.
Business
Erewhon and others shut by fire set to reopen in Pacific Palisades mall
Fancy grocer Erewhon will return to Pacific Palisades in an entirely rebuilt store, as the neighborhood’s luxury mall, owned by developer Rick Caruso, undergoes renovations for a reopening next August.
Palisades Village has been closed since the Jan. 7 wildfire destroyed much of the neighborhood. The outdoor mall survived the blaze but needed to be refurbished to eliminate contaminants that the fire could have spread, Caruso said.
The developer is spending $60 million to bring back Palisades Village, removing and replacing drywall from stores and restaurants. Dirt from the outdoor areas is also being replaced.
Demolition is complete and the tenants’ spaces are now being restored, Caruso said.
“It was not a requirement to do that from a scientific standpoint,” he said. “But it was important to me to be able to tell guests that the property is safe and clean.”
Erewhon’s store was taken down to the studs and is being reconfigured with a larger outdoor seating area for dining and events.
When it opens its doors sometime next year, it will be the only grocer in the heart of the fire-ravaged neighborhood.
The announcement of Erewhon’s comeback marks a milestone in the recovery of Pacific Palisades and signals renewed investment in restoring essential neighborhood services and supporting the community’s long-term economic health, Caruso said.
A photograph of the exterior of Erewhon in Pacific Palisades in 2024.
(Kailyn Brown/Los Angeles Times)
“They are one of the sexiest supermarkets in the world now and they are in high demand,” he said. “Their committing to reopening is a big statement on the future of the Palisades and their belief that it’s going to be back stronger than ever.”
Caruso previously attributed the mall’s survival to the hard work of private firefighters and the fire-resistant materials used in the mall’s construction. The $200-million shopping and dining center opened in 2018 with a movie theater and a roster of upmarket tenants, including Erewhon.
“We’re honored to join the incredible effort underway at Palisades Village,” Erewhon Chief Executive Tony Antoci said in a statement. “Reopening is a meaningful way for us to contribute to the healing and renewal of this neighborhood.”
Erewhon has cultivated a following of shoppers who visit daily to grab a prepared meal or one of its celebrity-backed $20 smoothies.
The privately held company doesn’t share financial figures, but has said its all-day cafes occupy roughly 30% of its floor space and serve 100,000 customers each week.
Erewhon has also branched out beyond selling groceries.
Its fast-growing private-label line now includes Erewhon-branded apparel, bags, candles, nutritional supplements and bath and body products.
Erewhon will also open new stores in West Hollywood in February, in Glendale in May and at Caruso’s The Lakes at Thousand Oaks mall in July 2026.
About 90% of the tenants are expected to return to the mall when it reopens, Caruso said, including restaurants Angelini Ristorante & Bar and Hank’s. Local chef Nancy Silverton has agreed to move in with a new Italian steakhouse called Spacca Tutto.
In May, Pacific Palisades-based fashion designer Elyse Walker said she would reopen her eponymous store in Palisades Village after losing her 25-year flagship location on Antioch Street in the inferno.
Fashion designer Elyse Walker announced the reopening of her flagship store at the Palisades Village in May.
(Myung J. Chun/Los Angeles Times)
“People who live in the Palisades don’t want to leave,” Walker said at the time. “It’s a magical place.”
Caruso carried on annual holiday traditions at Palisades Village this year, including the lighting of a 50-foot Christmas tree for hundreds of celebrants Dec. 5. On Sunday evening, leaders from the Chabad Jewish Community Center of Pacific Palisades gathered at the mall to light a towering menorah.
A total of 6,822 structures were destroyed in the Palisades fire, including more than 5,500 residences and 100 commercial businesses, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection.
Caruso said he hopes the shopping center’s revival will inspire residents to return. His investment “shows my belief that the community is coming back,” he said. “Next year is going to be huge.”
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