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Alaska’s Untapped Oil Wealth Is Still Struggling to Find Investors | OilPrice.com

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Alaska’s Untapped Oil Wealth Is Still Struggling to Find Investors | OilPrice.com


Alaskan oil and gas production has always been a complicated issue, as energy companies want to tap the region’s vast reserves and environmentalists fear irreparable damage to the vulnerable ecosystem. The Biden administration introduced far-reaching protections in Alaska, aimed at preventing new oil and gas exploration and protecting the environment and wildlife. However, since President Trump came into office last year, he has encouraged new fossil fuel development in the region. Yet the response to the most recent energy auction suggests that energy companies remain hesitant to develop oil and gas operations in the Arctic. 

Alaska’s oil production has fallen from a peak of around 2 million barrels per day in the 1980s to less than 430,000 bpd today, with production continuously declining since the early 1990s. In 2024, then-President Biden announced plans to restrict new oil and gas leasing on 13 million acres of a federal petroleum reserve in Alaska to protect wildlife endemic to the region. This marked a shift in direction after the Biden administration approved the $8 billion Willow Project by ConocoPhillips on Alaska’s remote North Slope in 2023.

However, in December 2025, Congress voted to repeal the Biden-era policy in a bid to restore leasing to the full Coastal Plain in support of President Donald Trump’s pledge to boost domestic energy development. Trump has aimed to accelerate Alaska’s oil output as part of his energy-dominance agenda. Upon his inauguration as president last January, Trump signed an executive order aimed at attracting investment to develop the state’s oil and gas.

Recent tests of the region bore positive results for energy firms looking to develop Alaska’s untapped oil reserves. Over the last year, confidence in the region has improved in response to Trump’s favourable policies on fossil fuel development and supporting regulatory changes. ConocoPhillips’ CEO, Ryan Lance, stated in April, “It feels like a bit of the Alaska renaissance.”

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ConocoPhillips, Shell, ExxonMobil, Santos, and seven other firms set a record in March by bidding nearly $164 million at a federal auction for oil and gas leases within the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPRA). This demonstrated the willingness of oil majors Shell and Exxon to return to the region.

However, the auction of oil leases in Alaska’s remote Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) in June ended with just nine bids, covering just about 10 per cent of the available land. This undermined Trump’s claims of significant investor interest in the region. The auction attracted $3.7 million in bids, almost half of which came from the state of Alaska’s publicly owned economic development corporation, while no international oil firms offered bids.

This follows a trend seen in President Trump’s first term in office, during which time Congress mandated auctions in the region drew little interest. The few leases that were sold were overturned by the Biden administration. This back-and-forth has, unsurprisingly, harmed investor certainty in the region. 

However, the severe volatility in oil and gas prices in recent months, owing to ongoing geopolitical challenges, was expected to spur greater investor interest in new operations. The managing director of research firm ClearView Energy Partners, Kevin Book, stated, “We’re in the middle of a massive supply shortfall, and if there was ever a time to look past political and reputational risks, it would be now.” 

Yet only two companies – the state-owned economic development corporation, the Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority, and Alaska-based Hex L.L.C. – bid in the auction, with bids covering around 70,000 acres of the 689,000 acres on offer. Several reasons were offered for the lack of interest, including the complicated logistics of drilling in remote Alaska and the potential for the next U.S. government to change drilling policies in the region. 

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Senator Edward Markey and Representative Jared Huffman, both of whom sit on environmental committees in Congress, said the results were “an embarrassment for the Trump administration.” In a joint statement, the two congressmen labelled the auction “an insult to our entire country, by sacrificing and selling off America’s public lands for pennies on the dollar.”

While the ANWR is believed to contain around 11.8 billion barrels of recoverable oil, according to the U.S. Geological Survey, the region also has great environmental importance. The ANWR, which has no roads or facilities, is a critical home to migratory and resident wildlife, including North American bears, caribou, and wolverines. In addition, over 200 bird species flock there to nest. 

Bobby McEnaney, the director of the NGO the Natural Resources Defence Council, explained, “Drilling in the Arctic Refuge is reckless, and the market keeps confirming it.” McEnaney added, “This is the third lease sale in a row to be a bust, with major oil companies sitting it out. The government spent public money to hold an auction no major company showed up for, and that tells you everything you need to know about the economics here. It is a remote, fragile landscape that is expensive to drill and risky to bet on.”

By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com

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Alaska

Reporting From Alaska- Dunleavy droned. Donald dozed.

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Reporting From Alaska- Dunleavy droned. Donald dozed.


“Mr. President, this is another example of America First, to be honest with you,” said Dunleavy.

“Alaska provides 60 percent of the country’s seafood. We’re the state with halibut, salmon, King Crab, you name it, it comes from Alaska. Alaska’s one of, fishing in Alaska’s one of the oldest industries in that entire state, employs thousands of individuals. Everyone has had fish from Alaska, we know that. But this is an example again of putting Americans first, America first, workers first and really this country first and so on behalf of Alaska, on behalf of all fishermen and women, I want to thank you for what you’re doing for this country, for the state of Alaska as well,” said Dunleavy.

Trump had no idea what he was signing. It appeared that Dunleavy had no idea what Trump was signing. In that they were evenly matched.

Trump thought the proclamation applied to Alaska waters, not to waters near Hawaii, and he had a notion he was saving the fishing industry from shutdowns ordered by his predecessors that Trump was reversing. He asked Dunleavy about it.

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“Governor, was this shut down?” Trump asked about the proclamation that had nothing to do with Alaska. “I mean it’s just so hard to believe. So this was trauma for your industry, which is a big industry.”

Dunleavy may be too tall to get a top job with Trump, but he is as small as anyone in the inner circle. He couldn’t answer the question, so he oozed obsequious and changed the subject.

“Well, your deregulation is what really helps Alaska,” Dunleavy said. “It helps the fishermen. We, the country doesn’t need more regulation. We need less regulation. And that includes for this industry as well. From that perspective, and it’s across the board, we could talk about oil and gas and so forth, but this is about fish. But your deregulation approach is really what we need. We don’t need more costs. And as you said, we probably don’t need electric boats either,” Dunleavy said, a line that drew a smile from the winner of the FIFA peace prize.

“We need the focus on getting seafood to Americans, putting people to work. And this is exactly what this does. So I just want to thank you,” said Dunleavy.

“Good job,” Trump said.

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Your contributions help support independent analysis and political commentary by Alaska reporter and author Dermot Cole. Thank you for reading and for your support. Either click here to use PayPal or send checks to: Dermot Cole, Box 10673, Fairbanks, AK 99710-067



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U.S. Wildland Fire Service Sends Strong Initial Attack for New Fire Northeast of Fairbanks

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U.S. Wildland Fire Service Sends Strong Initial Attack for New Fire Northeast of Fairbanks


The Clums Fire (#184) is burning about 66 miles northeast of Fairbanks on June 13, 2026. Photo by Alaska Smokejumpers

A strong U.S. Wildland Fire Service initial attack was launched on a rapidly growing, lightning‑caused wildfire located about 66 miles northeast of Fairbanks. The Clums Fire (#184) was reported around 8:30 a.m. Saturday and is estimated at 75 acres, burning primarily in tundra with pockets of black spruce. Earlier air support — including four single engine water scoopers and two Alaska Division of Forestry & Fire Protection air tankers —assisted initial suppression efforts. Eight smokejumpers remain on the ground and continue to work the fire with support from a helicopter conducting bucket drops. The air tankers were released while the water scoopers are standing by in case they’re needed to reengage.

The water scoopers first pulled water from the float pond at Fairbanks International Airport before moving to Medicine Lake, which is closer to the fire and near Circle Hot Springs.

The fire is burning on BLM‑managed land within the Steese National Conservation Area, roughly 20 miles east of the end of Chena Hot Springs Road.

This fire follows thunderstorms that moved across Interior Alaska Friday. More than 500 lightning strikes were recorded statewide, with the highest concentration in the Fairbanks North Star Borough and north into the Yukon Flats. Warm, dry, and windy conditions have followed these storms, raising concern for additional holdover fires.

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The National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag Warning for the Yukon Flats from noon to 8 p.m. Sunday. Conditions are expected to become increasingly critical through the afternoon and early evening. Forecasts call for southeast winds of 10–15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph, humidity dropping to around 25%, and temperatures in the lower 80s. These factors, combined with dry fuels, create an environment where any new or existing fire could spread quickly.

Lightning often ignites wildfires immediately, but not always. Holdover fires can smolder unnoticed below the surface for days until warmer temperatures, drying vegetation, or gusty winds cause them to flare up. To stay ahead of these potential starts, fire managers conduct detection flights in the days following significant lightning activity to locate any sleeper fires before they grow.

Contact Public Affairs Specialist Beth Ipsen at Elizabeth_ipsen@ios.doi.gov or (907)356-5510 for more information.

The Clums Fire is burning about 66 miles northeast of Fairbanks.

-USWFS-

U.S. Wildland Fire Service, P.O. Box 35005 1541 Gaffney Road, Fort Wainwright, Ak 99703

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Need public domain imagery to complement news coverage of the USWFS in Alaska? Visit our Flickr channel!  
Learn more online, and on Facebook and Twitter.

‹ Red Flag Warning issued for eastern Kuskokwim Valley and Lime Village

Categories: Active Wildland Fire, US Wildland Fire Service

Tags: 2026 Alaska Fire Season, Clums Fire





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Time capsule from 1976: How to win the ice pool

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Time capsule from 1976: How to win the ice pool


This hand-drawn table helped the column’s authors create a probability map, which was included in the original publication in 1976. (Photo by Alanna Greenwell)

Editor’s note: This Alaska Science Forum “time capsule” article was originally published on May 1, 1976. While employed at the University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, John M. Miller was the Alaska SAR Facility’s technical director, and T. Neil Davis, professor of geophysics, founded the Alaska Science Forum 50 years ago. This time capsule is typical of the early columns, which were always tied to newsworthy events and often lighthearted, if not gently self-deprecating.

The Mather Library in UAF’s Akasofu Building houses many original supporting materials of this long-running column. At a time when one can use any number of online tools to help you select a date and time to win the next Nenana Ice Classic, the longtime betting game on when the Tanana River will break up, paging through hand-drawn graphs and typewritten drafts is true time travel.

• • •

One sure way to win the Nenana Ice Classic is to invest $100,800 to buy 50,400 tickets, one on each minute from about April 18 to May 22. Someone else probably will win, too, so you will probably lose money.

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If you believe in statistics at all (and who does?), you can use the accompanying diagram to estimate the probability of having a winning ticket. This probability map is compiled on the basis of the actual breakup times from 1917 to 1975; the hour and day of each is shown on the map.

From these times, a bell-shaped curve was calculated to show the probability of breakup on any specified date. Calculation of the probability of breakups during a particular hour was accomplished by manually smoothing the data, since it appeared that the actual breakups did not, in the parlance of statisticians, follow a normal distribution.

Geophysical Institute communications coordinator Sara Wilbur holds the original, handwritten “How to win the ice pool” column in the Mather Library archives. (Photo by Alanna Greenwell)

Although a breakup has never occurred during the noon hour of May 6, the probability map says this is the best guess. In principle, such a ticket has 9.6 chances in 100,000 of winning. A ticket falling on the contour line labeled “1” has one chance in 100,000 of winning; one on the “0.1” line has only a chance in a million.

If you choose to ignore the probability contours, which is not a bad idea, you can still glean information from the numbers showing times of actual breakups.

One technique for picking a winning ticket combines both mathematics and skill. Hang the probability map on the wall then throw a dart at it aiming for the top of the “probability hill.” If you miss altogether, try another method.

Column author John M. Miller, right, looks on as Jeff Hilland symbolically opens the Alaska Synthetic Aperture Radar Facility — now called the Alaska Satellite Facility — by cutting a ribbon on the steps up to the antenna on the roof of the Elvey Building in 1991. (Photo by Evelyn Trabant)
Column author T. Neil Davis, former deputy director of the Geophysical Institute, observes data acquisition in the Poker Flat Research Range blockhouse during a rocket flight in the early 1970s. (Photo courtesy of the Geophysical Institute)





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