Editor’s note: This Alaska Science Forum “time capsule” article was originally published on May 1, 1976. While employed at the University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, John M. Miller was the Alaska SAR Facility’s technical director, and T. Neil Davis, professor of geophysics, founded the Alaska Science Forum 50 years ago. This time capsule is typical of the early columns, which were always tied to newsworthy events and often lighthearted, if not gently self-deprecating.

The Mather Library in UAF’s Akasofu Building houses many original supporting materials of this long-running column. At a time when one can use any number of online tools to help you select a date and time to win the next Nenana Ice Classic, the longtime betting game on when the Tanana River will break up, paging through hand-drawn graphs and typewritten drafts is true time travel.

• • •

One sure way to win the Nenana Ice Classic is to invest $100,800 to buy 50,400 tickets, one on each minute from about April 18 to May 22. Someone else probably will win, too, so you will probably lose money.

If you believe in statistics at all (and who does?), you can use the accompanying diagram to estimate the probability of having a winning ticket. This probability map is compiled on the basis of the actual breakup times from 1917 to 1975; the hour and day of each is shown on the map.

From these times, a bell-shaped curve was calculated to show the probability of breakup on any specified date. Calculation of the probability of breakups during a particular hour was accomplished by manually smoothing the data, since it appeared that the actual breakups did not, in the parlance of statisticians, follow a normal distribution.

Although a breakup has never occurred during the noon hour of May 6, the probability map says this is the best guess. In principle, such a ticket has 9.6 chances in 100,000 of winning. A ticket falling on the contour line labeled “1” has one chance in 100,000 of winning; one on the “0.1” line has only a chance in a million.

If you choose to ignore the probability contours, which is not a bad idea, you can still glean information from the numbers showing times of actual breakups.

One technique for picking a winning ticket combines both mathematics and skill. Hang the probability map on the wall then throw a dart at it aiming for the top of the “probability hill.” If you miss altogether, try another method.

By Alaska Division of Forestry & Fire Protection on June 12, 2026

A few weeks ago, I was at my college reunion. My Harvard classmates know I’ve authored several gardening books and that I am into organics, so naturally I got lots of gardening questions. No problem there. I never mind answering garden questions. It was like writing a column where I answer Alaska gardening questions.

I noted that after the World Trade Center went down, Alaska soil with its extremely high microbiology was used to restore the soil. I had sent a compost tea and extract made from Alaska humus. At the edges of the application, trees on one side of the street were sprayed with that liquid while the outer side of the street were not. No one thought much about this until it became clear the sprayed trees were growing much faster than those that were not. And, they were much healthier.

This was right about the time Dr. Elaine Ingham came up with the soil food web concept that a plant puts out exudates from its roots that attract bacteria that feed the plant. If a plant needs something else, it can change the exudate to get the right kind of bacteria that will supply the plant with what it needs.

To explain what was going on, Terry Fleisher at Harvard wrote a master’s thesis on compost. As a result of this thesis, my university started making and applying compost everywhere. All those test booklets, notes, food scraps and just about everything else that could be composted, actually was. So, it was a pleasure at my reunion to walk on a campus that no longer uses pesticides, and to know that I had something to do with this. Every plot of bare soil was mulched with compost. Things looked fantastic.

The bottom line is that compost is really all you need to get your plants into tip-top shape. You can make a compost tea, though the results are often questioned. Or, you can take a few handfuls of compost, wrap it in cheese cloth and knead it in a bucket of water. You will end up with what is known as a compost extract, which has higher microbiology than the soil that went into making it. This, applied to your gardens, is all your plants need to thrive and perform.

To make compost, you need a pile that is at least 3 feet cubed and composed of brown and green yard wastes. This pile does not have to be in the sun as it has nothing to do with heating the pile, since it is microbial activity in the pile that creates and maintains the heat.

It is astonishing that you can take waste material and reconstitute it into something so useful as compost. It is valuable stuff and you should be making your own. This may not be possible due to land constraints or the inability to get the right input materials. Fortunately, you can buy compost. If you don’t have the room or materials, you definitely should.

Use compost as you would mulch. Apply a layer a few inches thick as you would mulch. You might even put leaf mulch on top of the compost as it will speed up the mulch’s decay.

The bottom line is that if you use compost, you won’t need any other fertilizer. A compost-based garden should be your goal.

Jeff’s Alaska Garden Calendar:

Alaska Botanical Garden: Join to get the full advantage of this terrific institution. You will get all the announcements of events faster than waiting for me to put them in this listing. Every great city has a botanical garden. With your help, this will continue to include Anchorage.

Roses: All nurseries and box stores carry inexpensive roses. You supply the soil/compost and the appropriate size containers. You can treat these roses as annuals and toss them at the end of the season, or you can keep them over and use them the following year.

Starts: If you haven’t purchased yours, you better hurry up. There won’t be much available as we move into the summer season.