Crypto
US and Bolivia Target the ‘Modern Pablo Escobar’ in Massive Crypto Laundering Probe
Key Takeaways
- Bolivian officials met with the U.S. DEA to probe Sebastian Marset, captured March 13, for crypto money laundering.
- Chainalysis reports that global crypto money laundering surged 8x since 2020, reaching a massive $82B in 2025.
- The DEA and Bolivian Police will investigate companies receiving illicit crypto to track Marset’s crime network.
Bolivian Officials Meet With US DEA to Tackle Drug-Linked Crypto Money Laundering
World regulators are strengthening their integration and collaboration to tackle the use of cryptocurrency for illicit purposes, such as drug-related money laundering.
On Tuesday, Bolivia’s anti-drug czar, Ernesto Justiniano, and the director of the Bolivian Special Anti-Narcotics Force (FELCN), Frans William Cabrera Quispe, traveled to Washington and met with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) to strengthen the cooperation of both countries in the fight against drug trafficking and criminal organizations involved with these groups.
The main focus of this travel would be to coordinate an investigation into the criminal networks behind Sebastian Marset, called the modern Pablo Escobar, who was captured on March 13 in Bolivia, in addition to other criminal drug groups that operate in Latam. Among these are the First Capital Command (PCC) and the Red Command (Comando Vermelho), two Brazilian groups that have been accused of laundering millions using digital currencies.
Marset, currently under U.S. custody, is being accused of laundering millions using “couriers and tokens to covertly deliver bulk illicit currency, typically in euros,” according to an unsealed indictment.
Talking to local media, Justiniano stated that, in addition to the funds coming from the sale of these narcotics, they were “also looking into the matter of companies that may have been diverting chemicals” and “money laundering—specifically, companies that have received funds via cryptocurrencies.”
Mirko Sokol, General Commander of the Bolivian Police, stressed that intelligence indicated that Marset carried out transactions “primarily in cryptocurrencies, rather than in physical currency,” and the investigations are following this lead.
Cryptocurrency money laundering has been on the rise, with investigators sounding the alarm about the rising use of crypto assets for these illicit activities. Chainalysis, a blockchain intelligence firm, stated that cryptocurrency laundering volumes rose to $82 billion in 2025, with Chinese groups at the helm.
Volumes have grown 8x since 2020, when Chainalysis registered only $10 billion.
Key Takeaways
A $2.2 Million Vote of Confidence
Arthur Hayes, the co-founder and former chief executive of derivatives exchange BitMEX, has placed a fresh bet on the Hyperliquid ecosystem, buying roughly $2.2 million of synapse (SYN) and publicly endorsing the project behind an onchain options exchange.
The purchase, made on June 29 through over-the-counter trading firm Flowdesk, totaled about 6.16 million SYN tokens. Hayes, not one to keep quiet, subsequently took to X and commented:
“I still want to be long the Hyperliquid ecosystem but I need some asymmetry. It’s time for an options dex to properly take on Deribit. Hypercall, owned by $SYN, is that challenger. Let’s see if they can cook.”
Hypercall is an onchain options trading protocol built on Hyperliquid’s HyperEVM, the smart-contract layer of the fast-growing Hyperliquid network. The platform lets users trade options, with positions tradeable around the clock and risk capped at the premium a trader pays. Moreover, it has been developed by the team behind Synapse, whose SYN token is the asset Hayes bought.
A Run-Up in SYN
The endorsement landed on a token that was already on a tear as SYN surged more than tenfold in June, and Hayes’s purchase and public backing added fuel, with Synapse’s market capitalization climbing toward the $55 million to $60 million range and daily trading volume running above $95 million in the wake of his comments.
Hayes commands an unusually large following among crypto traders, both for his market essays and his willingness to put capital behind his theses. Not only that, he has become one of the most closely watched voices in the Hyperliquid orbit, repeatedly championing the network’s HYPE token, at one point setting a $150 price target, though his wallet activity has not always matched his rhetoric.
Bitcoin.com News reported recently that a wallet linked to Hayes sold HYPE near $54 before buying back in at a higher price, a sequence that drew attention to the gap between his public calls and his trades.
Targeting Deribit’s Turf
Deribit has been the dominant venue for crypto options, a corner of the market long underserved by decentralized platforms because options are harder to build onchain than simple spot or perpetual-futures trading. By putting forth Hypercall as a credible challenger, Hayes is betting that Hyperliquid’s infrastructure can finally support a decentralized options market at scale and that SYN is the way to gain exposure to that bet.
That said, an endorsement and a price spike are not the same as trading volume, open interest, and users, the metrics that ultimately decide whether an options DEX can pressure an incumbent like Deribit. For the time being, Hayes and his $2.2 million bet have put a considerable megaphone behind the idea and the next thing to look out for is whether Hypercall can convert the hype and capital into durable trading activity before the attention inadvertently fades.
Crypto
Elizabeth Warren Says US Enemies Exploiting Crypto To ‘Move Billions’ After Iran Reportedly Uses CoinEx T
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) expressed concerns on Sunday over the potential misuse of cryptocurrencies by America’s adversaries.
Warren Says Crypto Legislation Will Make The Problem Worse
Warren cited a Wall Street Journal report on X detailing how Iran-affiliated entities moved billions in transactions through CoinEx, a cryptocurrency exchange that withdrew from the U.S. after a 2023 lawsuit.
“More evidence that our adversaries exploit crypto to move billions,” the senior lawmaker said.
Warren argued that the cryptocurrency legislation, i.e., the Clarity Act, would make the problem “worse” by creating new loopholes and urged Congress to strengthen the bill before passage.
CoinEx Serving As A Conduit?
The WSJ report noted that CoinEx has played a “growing role” in connecting Iran’s cryptocurrency operations to the global markets, with wallets hosted by the exchange moving more than $3.84 billion over the last 7 years.
The wallets received hacked cryptocurrency that originated with Iran’s Central Bank and were used to transact directly with accounts U.S. officials have since linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the report said.
In 2023, CoinEx was sued by New York Attorney General Letitia James for allegedly conducting business without proper registration in the state of New York.
The exchange didn’t immediately return Benzinga’s request for comment.
Iran Using Crypto To Bypass Sanctions?
Warren has repeatedly flagged concerns that cryptocurrency exchanges are helping move money into and out of Iran.
Nobitex has been under increased scrutiny from U.S. regulators and policymakers for its continued operations during wartime. The platform reportedly handles about 70% of Iran’s cryptocurrency activity and claims to serve roughly 11 million users.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo Courtesy: Bryan J. Scrafford on Shutterstock.com
Key Takeaways
- Kalshi traders assign a 76% probability that bitcoin hits $50,000 before $100,000, up 35% in recent weeks.
- Polymarket’s $45M annual bitcoin market prices a 64% chance BTC falls to $50,000 or lower before Dec. 31, 2026.
- Kalshi’s $10.3M timeline market gives bitcoin only a 14% chance of crossing $100,000 before January 2027.
Bearish Consensus Builds Across Platforms
The largest signal comes from Kalshi, where a market asking “Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000?” now shows a 76% probability favoring the downside. That figure represents a 35% increase in probability in recent weeks. The contract has drawn $54,516 in total trading volume and resolves based on the CF Real-Time Index, using a 60-second average to confirm which threshold is crossed first. If neither is reached by Dec. 31, 2026, the market defaults to “No.”
The result: a strong majority of active traders on Kalshi believe bitcoin tests $50,000 before it sees six figures again.
June Price Range Looks Tight
On Polymarket, a market focused on bitcoin’s June 2026 price range has pulled in $30.3 million in trading volume. With bitcoin trading near $60,000 on Sunday, the crowd gives a 33% chance the price drops to or below $57,500 this month, versus a 29% chance of reaching $62,500 or above. Targets at $67,500 or higher carry odds of 1% or less. A drop to $55,000 carries a 7% probability.
The range reflects a market pricing limited upside in the near term and real downside risk through June 30.
$100K Timeline Looks Distant
Kalshi’s “When will Bitcoin cross $100k again?” market, which has accumulated $10.3 million in trading volume, shows traders see almost no chance of a near-term recovery. The odds of bitcoin crossing $100,000 before July 2026 are below 1%. Before October 2026, those odds sit at 6%. Even extending the window to January 2027 only brings the probability to 14%.
Polymarket’s companion market, “When will bitcoin hit $150k?”, paints a similar picture. With $26.9 million in total volume, traders give the $150,000 milestone less than a 1% chance of being reached by June 30. The year-end December 2026 window carries just 5% odds.
2026 Annual Targets Show Wide Range
Polymarket’s largest active bitcoin market, asking “What price will bitcoin hit in 2026?”, has drawn $45 million in trading volume. It tracks price milestones from Nov. 24, 2025, through Dec. 31, 2026, using Binance’s 1-minute candle data on the BTC/ USDT pair.
Current crowd pricing shows:
- $55,000 or lower: 78% probability
- $50,000 or lower: 64% probability
- $70,000: 67% probability
- $75,000: 50% probability
- $80,000: 36% probability
- $90,000: 20% probability
- $100,000: 10% probability
- $160,000 and above: 1% to 2% probability
The data reflects a market that expects bitcoin to both dip below current levels and potentially recover to the $70,000 range within the year, while viewing anything above $90,000 as a long shot.
$57,500 Floor Gets Priced In
Kalshi’s “How low will BTC get in June?” market has logged $1.7 million in volume. Traders are pricing a 32% chance bitcoin’s trimmed mean price falls below $57,500 before June 30. The odds drop sharply for deeper cuts: 7% for a close below $55,000, and 2% for a move below $52,500.
What the Data Shows
Prediction markets aggregate real money from traders willing to back their views with capital. The consistency across Polymarket and Kalshi, covering several separate contracts and more than $75 million in combined volume, points to a cohesive view: Bitcoin faces meaningful near-term downside, the $100,000 level is not expected to be reclaimed in 2026 by most prediction marketplace participants, and the floor around $50,000 to $55,000 is being actively priced as a realistic outcome before year-end.
At the time of writing, bitcoin was trading near $59,500, down roughly 31.5% from the high of the tracking period on the year’s largest Polymarket contract.
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