Dallas, TX
Dallas Fed says ‘older, experienced workers’ likely have less cause for concern about AI job displacement
Artificial intelligence hasn’t yet triggered the broad job losses many feared — at least not for experienced workers.
That’s the takeaway from a new analysis by J. Scott Davis, an assistant vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, who examined employment and wage trends in industries most exposed to artificial intelligence.
Davis argues the data tell a more nuanced story — one that’s challenging the traditional career ladder, and helping older employees earn a bit more.
Since ChatGPT’s debut in late 2022, overall US employment has risen about 2.5%, according to Davis’ analysis, which uses an AI exposure index developed by researchers and published in the Strategic Management Journal. At the same time, employment in the sectors most exposed to AI has slipped by roughly 1%.
Wages tell a different story. The average weekly pay nationwide has climbed 7.5% since fall 2022. And across the most AI-exposed industries, wages have grown faster, up 8.5%.
If AI were simply replacing workers, both employment and wages would likely be falling, Davis wrote.
Instead, Davis points to a divide between “codified” knowledge — the kind learned from textbooks and in university courses — and “tacit” knowledge gained from hands-on work experience.
“Returns on job experience are increasing in AI-exposed occupations,” Davis wrote. “Young workers with primarily codifiable knowledge and limited experience will likely face challenging job markets.”
Using Bureau of Labor Statistics data, his analysis found that the occupations most exposed to AI tend to offer larger pay premiums for experienced workers.
In roles with less hands-on experience, AI exposure is associated with weaker wage growth, he wrote.
Workers under 25 in AI-exposed industries have also experienced employment declines, according to Davis’ analysis.
“There appears to be less cause for concern about widespread job displacement for older, experienced workers,” he wrote.
A less dire picture… so far
The findings offer a counterpoint to the more apocalyptic predictions about AI’s impact on the labor market.
Last week, Citrini Research published a memo, written from the hypothetical perspective in 2028, that theorized how AI could crush the US jobs market and trigger a broad-based market collapse.
“What if our AI bullishness continues to be right…and what if that’s actually bearish?” the memo asked.
Top executives inside the AI companies are worried about jobs, too.
Dario Amodei, the CEO of Anthropic, the company that runs Claude, warned that AI could eliminate 50% of entry-level office jobs. OpenAI’s head of product, Olivier Godement, said the life sciences, customer service, and computer engineering industries were all about to get automated. And Boris Cherny, the creator of Claude Code, said that he doesn’t believe the job title “software engineer” will exist next year.
For now, at least, the Dallas Fed paints a different picture of today’s jobs market. It points to less mass displacement and market ruptures — and more power for employees who already have their foot in the door.
Jeff Kolb and Sam Gannon welcome Cowboys insiders Clarence Hill (All City Dallas) and Calvin Watkins (Dallas Morning News) for a hilarious breakdown of the upcoming 2026 NFL Draft. Giving insight, arguments, and plenty of laughs as two of the best Dallas Cowboys writers in the business go head-to-head on what Dallas should do next.
Dallas, TX
New video of Lake Dallas explosion draws focus on order decades ago to remove old plastic pipes
The search for the next general manager or president of basketball operations of the Dallas Mavericks has begun. They terminated Nico Harrison in November, which was about nine months too late, and gave any available candidates clear notice that they were open for business.
The plan was always to wait until after the season to start the search. While names popped up as the season reached an end, they didn’t begin turning over the staff until the Monday after the season ended. However, Dallas Mavericks fans are not going to like how the team is going about the search.
Patrick Dumont Leading Search for General Manager
NBA insider Jake Fischer reported that the Mavericks are not hiring a search firm in their hunt for a new lead executive. Instead, team governor Patrick Dumont is “acting as his own point person.”
This is an… interesting decision, to say the least. Dumont is not a basketball person whatsoever, and most organizations usually hire a search firm. The Chicago Bulls hired one as they look for their replacement for Arturas Karnisovas. Just because a firm is hired doesn’t mean a team will listen, though.
The Mavericks hired a firm in their last search for a GM. They let Donnie Nelson go in 2021 after a long tenure with the Mavs. Instead of listening to the firm, though, Mark Cuban ignored it to hire Nico Harrison, who had no previous NBA front office experience. Harrison had been an executive with Nike, which gave him connections with players like Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis, and plenty of others.
For a while, that seemed to be working out okay. While he still had some questionable transactions, such as trading for Christian Wood and letting Jalen Brunson walk in free agency, they were still able to make a run to the NBA Finals in 2024. Then, he blew it all up, trading away Luka Doncic for an older and injured Anthony Davis, and the team hasn’t been the same since.
It’s imperative that the Mavericks get this hire correct. The interim Co-GM setup with Matt Riccardi and Michael Finley has performed admirably, but the 2026 NBA Draft is important for the Mavs to get right. It’s their best chance to pair Cooper Flagg with another young star, as they don’t own their first-round pick again until 2031 after this.
Hiring the right GM could help bring in more draft capital by bringing in bad contracts or flipping veterans into picks.
Dumont was able to convince Rick Welts, a Hall of Famer, to come out of retirement to be the CEO and lead the charge for a new arena. Maybe Dumont pulls another rabbit out of his hat for the GM.
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