Dallas, TX
Dallas Fed says ‘older, experienced workers’ likely have less cause for concern about AI job displacement
Artificial intelligence hasn’t yet triggered the broad job losses many feared — at least not for experienced workers.
That’s the takeaway from a new analysis by J. Scott Davis, an assistant vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, who examined employment and wage trends in industries most exposed to artificial intelligence.
Davis argues the data tell a more nuanced story — one that’s challenging the traditional career ladder, and helping older employees earn a bit more.
Since ChatGPT’s debut in late 2022, overall US employment has risen about 2.5%, according to Davis’ analysis, which uses an AI exposure index developed by researchers and published in the Strategic Management Journal. At the same time, employment in the sectors most exposed to AI has slipped by roughly 1%.
Wages tell a different story. The average weekly pay nationwide has climbed 7.5% since fall 2022. And across the most AI-exposed industries, wages have grown faster, up 8.5%.
If AI were simply replacing workers, both employment and wages would likely be falling, Davis wrote.
Instead, Davis points to a divide between “codified” knowledge — the kind learned from textbooks and in university courses — and “tacit” knowledge gained from hands-on work experience.
“Returns on job experience are increasing in AI-exposed occupations,” Davis wrote. “Young workers with primarily codifiable knowledge and limited experience will likely face challenging job markets.”
Using Bureau of Labor Statistics data, his analysis found that the occupations most exposed to AI tend to offer larger pay premiums for experienced workers.
In roles with less hands-on experience, AI exposure is associated with weaker wage growth, he wrote.
Workers under 25 in AI-exposed industries have also experienced employment declines, according to Davis’ analysis.
“There appears to be less cause for concern about widespread job displacement for older, experienced workers,” he wrote.
A less dire picture… so far
The findings offer a counterpoint to the more apocalyptic predictions about AI’s impact on the labor market.
Last week, Citrini Research published a memo, written from the hypothetical perspective in 2028, that theorized how AI could crush the US jobs market and trigger a broad-based market collapse.
“What if our AI bullishness continues to be right…and what if that’s actually bearish?” the memo asked.
Top executives inside the AI companies are worried about jobs, too.
Dario Amodei, the CEO of Anthropic, the company that runs Claude, warned that AI could eliminate 50% of entry-level office jobs. OpenAI’s head of product, Olivier Godement, said the life sciences, customer service, and computer engineering industries were all about to get automated. And Boris Cherny, the creator of Claude Code, said that he doesn’t believe the job title “software engineer” will exist next year.
For now, at least, the Dallas Fed paints a different picture of today’s jobs market. It points to less mass displacement and market ruptures — and more power for employees who already have their foot in the door.
With the official NFL schedule coming this week, the Dallas Cowboys have revealed when, where and against who their Week 1 contest will be.
The Cowboys announced that they will square off against the New York Giants on the road in Week 1, with the game set for Sunday, Sept. 13, at 7:20 p.m. CT. So, it’s prime time for the Cowboys to start the season.
This is the second game we know about for the Cowboys this year. Of course, we know they will be playing on Thanksgiving, also.
The official schedule will drop on May 14, the NFL announced last week. Schedules for all 32 teams will be revealed on ESPN and the NFL Network, but each team will unveil its own schedule on social media, also.
The Cowboys were always likely to play a road game in Week 1 because of an Usher and Chris Brown concert taking place at AT&T Stadium that week.
Dallas will also be impacted by an Ed Sheeran concert in Week 7, so that’s another potential road game. They could also play on Monday or Thursday that week, or have a bye.
Cowboys’ strength of schedule
According to Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis, the Cowboys are not going to have an easy road to make the postseason.
The Cowboys have the fourth-toughest schedule in the NFL going into the 2026 season, with only the Arizona Cardinals, Miami Dolphins and Carolina Panthers having tougher slates.
Dallas’ schedule is also the third-toughest in the NFC, and the most difficult in the NFC East.
Sharp does his strength of schedule rankings based on win totals from Vegas oddsmakers rather than utilizing the previous season’s records because that metric doesn’t factor in offseason changes.
The Cowboys will play home games against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Tennessee Titans, Baltimore Ravens, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders.
On the road, Dallas will square off against the Giants, Eagles, Commanders, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers.
Of those opponents, seven of them made the postseason in 2025, a list that includes the Jaguars, 49ers, Eagles, Texans, Rams, Seahawks and Packers.
All of those teams should be as good in 2026, and teams like the Colts, Titans, Ravens, Bucs, Giants and Commanders have a very real chance to be improved as well.
It won’t be an easy road for Dallas to get back to the playoffs in 2026, but there’s at least hope following a defensive overhaul.
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Dallas weather: May 10 morning forecast
Today is by far our most active day of the extended forecast. After our Red River Counties got some severe storms overnight, we expect a mostly quiet morning. Isolated storms are expected to start forming just after noon. The severe threat begins mid-afternoon in a more scattered fashion, before a cold front ushers in widespread rain and strong storms this evening.
DALLAS – A powerful cold front sweeping across North and Central Texas on Monday is expected to trigger a wave of severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, dangerous winds, and isolated flash flooding.
Severe weather in North Texas
Timeline:
The National Weather Service in Fort Worth warned that while showers and storms will begin developing Monday morning, the risk of severe weather will peak during the afternoon and evening hours as the front advances southward.
We are tracking two distinct phases of the storm system. Initial storms are expected to be “discrete,” or individual cells, which carry a high risk of large hail exceeding 2 inches in diameter. As the evening progresses, these individual storms are forecast to merge into a large cluster or broken line.
Once the storms consolidate, the primary threat will shift toward damaging straight-line winds. Forecasters warned that wind gusts could exceed 70 to 75 mph, speeds capable of downing trees, damaging roofs, and causing power outages.
In addition to the wind and hail threats, the system is expected to dump significant amounts of water. While most areas will see standard rainfall, there is a 10% to 15% chance that some locations could receive up to 4 inches of rain. Isolated flash flooding can happen over these locations.
Live Radar
We are watching how morning activity near the Red River might influence the speed of the cold front. The exact position of that front will be the primary factor in determining where the most intense storms initiate.
Residents are encouraged to monitor local forecasts and have multiple ways to receive weather warnings throughout the evening.
The front is expected to push through the region by Tuesday morning.
7-Day Forecast
The Source: Information in this article is from the National Weather Service and the FOX 4 Weather team.
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