Dallas, TX
Dallas Fed says ‘older, experienced workers’ likely have less cause for concern about AI job displacement
Artificial intelligence hasn’t yet triggered the broad job losses many feared — at least not for experienced workers.
That’s the takeaway from a new analysis by J. Scott Davis, an assistant vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, who examined employment and wage trends in industries most exposed to artificial intelligence.
Davis argues the data tell a more nuanced story — one that’s challenging the traditional career ladder, and helping older employees earn a bit more.
Since ChatGPT’s debut in late 2022, overall US employment has risen about 2.5%, according to Davis’ analysis, which uses an AI exposure index developed by researchers and published in the Strategic Management Journal. At the same time, employment in the sectors most exposed to AI has slipped by roughly 1%.
Wages tell a different story. The average weekly pay nationwide has climbed 7.5% since fall 2022. And across the most AI-exposed industries, wages have grown faster, up 8.5%.
If AI were simply replacing workers, both employment and wages would likely be falling, Davis wrote.
Instead, Davis points to a divide between “codified” knowledge — the kind learned from textbooks and in university courses — and “tacit” knowledge gained from hands-on work experience.
“Returns on job experience are increasing in AI-exposed occupations,” Davis wrote. “Young workers with primarily codifiable knowledge and limited experience will likely face challenging job markets.”
Using Bureau of Labor Statistics data, his analysis found that the occupations most exposed to AI tend to offer larger pay premiums for experienced workers.
In roles with less hands-on experience, AI exposure is associated with weaker wage growth, he wrote.
Workers under 25 in AI-exposed industries have also experienced employment declines, according to Davis’ analysis.
“There appears to be less cause for concern about widespread job displacement for older, experienced workers,” he wrote.
A less dire picture… so far
The findings offer a counterpoint to the more apocalyptic predictions about AI’s impact on the labor market.
Last week, Citrini Research published a memo, written from the hypothetical perspective in 2028, that theorized how AI could crush the US jobs market and trigger a broad-based market collapse.
“What if our AI bullishness continues to be right…and what if that’s actually bearish?” the memo asked.
Top executives inside the AI companies are worried about jobs, too.
Dario Amodei, the CEO of Anthropic, the company that runs Claude, warned that AI could eliminate 50% of entry-level office jobs. OpenAI’s head of product, Olivier Godement, said the life sciences, customer service, and computer engineering industries were all about to get automated. And Boris Cherny, the creator of Claude Code, said that he doesn’t believe the job title “software engineer” will exist next year.
For now, at least, the Dallas Fed paints a different picture of today’s jobs market. It points to less mass displacement and market ruptures — and more power for employees who already have their foot in the door.
DALLAS – Slow-moving thunderstorms brought localized flash flooding to parts of North Texas on Tuesday evening, blocking highways near Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport and dropping several inches of rain in portions of Tarrant and Parker counties.
Flash Flood Warnings
Local perspective:
Flash flood warnings are in effect for Hopkins, Hunt, Rains and Van Zandt counties until 7:45 p.m.
Flooding was reported along Texas 183 near Valley View Lane south of DFW Airport, where stranded vehicles and water-covered roadways created hazardous travel conditions.
A flash flood warning remained in effect near the airport, although rainfall rates had begun to diminish as the storm weakened.
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings
The National Weather Service also issued a severe thunderstorm warning for northern Hood County, citing the potential for gusty winds and small hail. Forecasters reported hail ranging from pea-sized to marble-sized in parts of Hood, Parker and Denton counties.
Forecasters attributed the weakening storms in Denton County to an outflow boundary, a meteorological feature that can disrupt thunderstorm development.
The warning area was reduced as the storm weakened near sunset.
LIVE RADAR
What they’re saying:
FOX 4’s Kylie Capps said the storms moved unusually slowly from east to west, allowing heavy rain to accumulate over the same areas for several hours.
Rainfall estimates showed some locations in eastern Parker County and western Tarrant County received nearly 5 inches of rain during a six-hour period, while areas near DFW Airport recorded more than 2 inches.
Elsewhere in North Texas, northern Rains County received nearly 5 inches of rain.
7-Day Forecast
What’s next:
Forecasters expect a quieter overnight period, with only isolated showers lingering into the evening. Additional thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon, though coverage and the threat of severe weather are expected to remain limited.
Temperatures are forecast to reach about 90 degrees Wednesday.
Rain chances are expected to continue through the remainder of the workweek and into the weekend as an upper-level low-pressure system sends multiple disturbances across North Texas.
The Source: Information in this article was provided by FOX 4’s Weather Team
Monday was a wild day for the NFL with two blockbuster trades. First was Myles Garrett, who both the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles were rumored to have interest in.
Cowboys fans never bought into these rumors, knowing that Jerry Jones was unlikely to make such an investment. The Eagles, however, have been known to get aggressive. Thankfully for Dallas fans, they didn’t make the move as the Cleveland Browns sent Garrett to the Los Angeles Rams for Jared Verse and a package of picks.
Not long after that trade was finalized, the Eagles did wind up making a trade. After months of speculation surrounding A.J. Brown and the New England Patriots, the two sides made it official as Brown was reunited with Mike Vrabel in exchange for a 2028 first-round pick and a 2027 fifth-rounder.
Dallas Cowboys could take the NFC East crown in 2026
The writing has been on the wall all offseason regarding Brown, who has been unhappy with the Eagles for a while. His departure seemed confirmed when they traded up with Dallas in the 2026 NFL draft for USC receiver Makai Lemon.
While Lemon has the tools to be a difference-maker, he won’t be able to perform at the same level as Brown during his rookie season. The Eagles do still have DeVonta Smith at receiver as well as running back Saquon Barkley and quarterback Jalen Hurts.
That said, there’s no denying that they’re weaker this season than they were with Brown. Just as important, however, is the fact that general manager Howie Roseman didn’t pull off a shocking move for Garrett, which would have made them the overwhelming favorites in the division.
Cowboys chances hinge on defensive changes
Another reason the Cowboys are confident they can hang with Philadelphia this season is the presence of Christian Parker, who they hired as their defensive coordinator after he spent the past two seasons as the passing game coordinator and defensive backs coach with the Eagles.
Parker brings in a new scheme and plenty of confidence, but more importantly, he has several new weapons at his disposal. Dallas traded for veterans Rashan Gary and Dee Winters, signed Jalen Thompson and Cobie Durant, and selected Caleb Downs and Malachi Lawrence in the draft.
Those are just some of the moves they made on defense, and they’re banking on that to be enough to help propel them past the team that has won the division the past two seasons.
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FOX 4’s Clarice Tinsley celebrates the following members of the Class of 2026: Zavion Berry, Demi Glenn, Peyton Jankowski, Brynnah Stone, Bailee Swilling and Caroline Woahloe.
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