Southwest
Republican ‘wake-up call’: Special election shocker highlights GOP turnout and midterm risks
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A stunning setback for Republicans at the ballot box in a ruby red part of right-leaning Texas has some saying the defeat was a “wake-up call” for the GOP ahead of this year’s midterm elections, when the party is defending its narrow congressional majorities.
The double-digit shellacking, in a special state Senate election this past weekend in a Fort Worth area district that President Donald Trump won by 17 points in 2024, comes amid backlash over the Trump administration’s unprecedented crackdown on illegal immigration and, as the latest polling indicates, the president and his party are well underwater.
The Democrats’ victory, their latest win or over performance in a slew of special elections since Trump returned to power in the White House a year ago, is further energizing them as they work to win back control of the House and possibly the Senate.
“It’s clearly a wake-up call for Republicans,” longtime Texas-based Republican strategist Brendan Steinhauser told Fox News Digital.
AFFORDABILITY: THE ISSUE THAT BOOSTED TRUMP AND REPUBLICANS IN 2024 DEFLATED THEM IN 2025
Taylor Rehmet greets a supporter at his Senate District 9 runoff watch party at Nickel City in Fort Worth, Texas, on Saturday, Jan. 31, 2026. (Eleanor Dearman/Fort Worth Star-Telegram/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)
And he warned that the results in Saturday’s special election to fill a vacant GOP-controlled seat in state Senate District 9 “does show that Democrats are energized and Republicans did not turn out in the numbers they should have.”
“If Democrats can win this seat, it puts a lot of other seats in play,” Steinhauser warned.
But Republican sources involved in midterm messaging tell Fox News Digital that while they’re not discounting the Democrats’ victories, there’s no talk right now of a wholesale revamping of the GOP’s playbook.
2025 SHOCKERS: THE BIGGEST MOMENTS THAT ROCKED THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL
In Texas, Machinist and Air Force veteran Taylor Rehmet topped Republican Leigh Wambsganss by roughly 14 points in Saturday’s runoff election, despite Republicans dramatically outspending Democrats in the race, along with support from top Republicans including Gov. Greg Abbott and a last-minute endorsement and a social media push by Trump.
This is the first time the seat, in the northern part of Fort Worth anchored Tarrant County, has been represented by a Democrat in four decades.
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) called it a “Shockwave Victory” and highlighted that “Democrats have now flipped 26 state legislative seats since Trump retook office, while Republicans have flipped zero.”
The results of special elections are often over-hyped and are not always the best indicator or barometer of things to come. But regardless, Republicans aren’t trying to sugarcoat the results.
Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick called the defeat “a wake-up call for Republicans across Texas. Our voters cannot take anything for granted.”
And Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis noted on X, “Special elections are quirky and not necessarily projectable re: a general election. That said, a swing of this magnitude is not something that can be dismissed.”
“Republicans should be clear-eyed about the political environment heading into the midterms,” DeSantis emphasized.
RNC CHAIR BETS ON ‘SECRET WEAPON’ TO DEFY MIDTERM HISTORY, PROTECT GOP MAJORITIES
Thanks in part to their laser focus on the issue of affordability amid persistent inflation, Democrats scored decisive victories in the 2025 elections, and have overperformed at the ballot box in other off-year and special elections since the start of Trump’s second administration. But some of those victories and overperformances came in contests in small state legislative districts, where large swings can take place amid low voter turnout.
That wasn’t the case in Texas, where the 9th state Senate district is home to roughly one million people, more populous than the 800,000 people in a typical congressional district.
Republicans, as the party in power in the nation’s capital, are facing traditional political headwinds in the midterms and a rough climate.
More than half (54%) surveyed in the latest Fox News national poll said the nation was worse off than it was a year ago, when Trump took office, with only 31% saying the U.S. was in a better position.
Only 30% said the economy was in excellent or good shape, and Trump’s overall approval ratings remain in negative territory (44%-56%), according to the poll.
The survey was the latest national poll to spell trouble for the GOP.
Trump’s emphasis on inflation was a key factor in Republicans winning back the White House and Senate and holding on to the House in the 2024 elections. But Trump’s approval on combating inflation stood at just 35% in the Fox News survey.
FOX NEWS POLL: AN EARLY LOOK AT THE 2026 MIDTERMS
Border security and immigration were also winning issues for Trump and the GOP in 2024. But in the wake of two fatal shootings by federal agents of U.S. citizens in Minnesota protesting against the administration’s aggressive deportation efforts, the president’s poll numbers on immigration have slipped.
While Trump’s approval ratings on border security stood at 52%-47% in the latest Fox News poll, he was at 45%-55% on how he was handling immigration.
Tarrant County is Texas’ third most populous, and nearly a third of its population is Hispanic.
Trump made major gains with Hispanic voters in Texas and across the county as he won back the White House in 2024.
“I think we might have expected that the support among Hispanic voters in Texas for Trump might translate to all Republicans. That may not be the case,” Steinhauser noted.
And he suggested that “some of the other imagery coming out of Minnesota is giving people pause, especially Hispanic Texans.”
CASH SURGE: HOUSE GOP SMASHES FUNDRAISING RECORDS AS REPUBLICANS GEAR UP TO DEFEND SLIM MAJORITY
Looking ahead to November’s midterms, when the Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to recapture the House majority, DNC Chair Ken Martin said that the results in the Texas special election “prove that no Republican seat is safe.”
Two veteran Republican strategists told Fox News Digital Republicans need to showcase their successes to change the narrative heading into the midterms.
President Donald Trump signs sweeping spending and tax legislation, known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” during a picnic with military families to mark Independence Day, at the White House in Washington, D.C., on July 4, 2025. (Reuters/Ken Cedeno)
Pointing to the GOP’s sweeping “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” which includes numerous tax cuts that many voters will feel this spring, Lance Trover said “Republicans have passed significant legislation. It’s on us to go out and sell it and remind voters that if Democrats have their way we are on a fast track to socialism.”
And Colin Reed emphasized that “if the economy starts booming on the backs of the One, Big Beautiful Bill’s provisions taking hold, the Republican Party need to remind America that this was a policy uniformly supported by one party and opposed by another. That’s the GOP’s big bet heading into the midterms.”
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And back in Texas, Patrick was optimistic as he looked head to the midterms.
“I know the energy and strength the Republican grassroots in Texas possess. We will come out fighting with a new resolve, and we will take this seat back in November,” the lieutenant governor predicted.
Fox News’ Dana Blanton and Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
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Southwest
RICK PERRY: Where’s the beef? Trump knows and he’s trying to make it affordable
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“America First” has been more than a slogan for President Trump. It has become a governing framework and near-mandate for his administration. America First policy decisions have manifested across immigration strategy, energy regulation, and, perhaps most clearly, trade policy.
The beef market has been in desperate need of an America First recalibration after President Joe Biden’s failed policies. Ground beef prices have become astronomical, reaching an average of $6.69 per pound in December, the highest price since tracking began in the 1980s.
These price increases are outpacing those of other food categories due to structural problems within the domestic beef market. Analysis from the American Farm Bureau Federation shows the domestic herd has fallen to a 75-year low and is continuing to shrink as fewer calves are retained for breeding. As a result, the U.S. cattle herd is unlikely to expand until at least 2028.
From my time as governor of Texas and agriculture commissioner for the nation’s leading cattle-producing state, I understand both the gravity of this situation and the need for a deliberate policy response.
Cattle are shown in pens at the Cattlemen’s Columbus Livestock Auction in Columbus on Wednesday, Oct. 8, 2025. (Melissa Phillip/Houston Chronicle/Getty Images)
In October, President Donald Trump addressed the need for beef affordability measures and signaled plans to increase imports, which he recently finalized through an executive order, opening the U.S. to an additional 80,000 metric tons of lean beef trimmings from Argentina this year.
This step is valuable because the U.S. does not produce enough beef to meet domestic demand, necessitating imports. Argentina is a strategic and well-suited partner to remedy our beef shortage because they specialize in lower-cost, lean beef. These trimmings from Argentina will be blended with fattier domestic beef to produce hamburgers and ground beef products – affordable staples in high demand.
Importing the specific type of affordable beef directly addresses supply and aligns with an America First approach. Expanding lean beef imports will reduce pressures on our beef supply, thus reducing costs for consumers while protecting cattle ranchers’ premium production.
THE SURPRISING REASON WHY AMERICANS COULD FACE HIGH BEEF PRICES FOR YEARS
The impacts of these smart imports are complemented and multiplied by broader efforts to strengthen the cattle sector, including Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins’ October plan to fortify the American beef industry and President Trump’s directive for the Department of Justice to crack down on foreign-owned meat packing cartels.
Beyond these efforts, the administration should reassess the existing allocation of tariff-rate quotas (TRQs), which were configured in 1995. Reworking would acknowledge shifts in global production patterns and domestic market needs, putting U.S. ranchers in a better position.
Today, the overwhelming share of tariff-free beef imports are dedicated to Australia and New Zealand. Both countries focus heavily on premium, grass-fed exports – products that compete directly with higher-end U.S. beef in domestic and international markets.
By contrast, lean beef imports from South America primarily serve the lower-cost blended segment. Ranchers and their supporters criticizing the import increase from Argentina, but failing to push back about the near-unlimited market access Australia and New Zealand have are fighting the wrong battles.
The beef market has been in desperate need of an America First recalibration after President Joe Biden’s failed policies.
Some policymakers have raised concerns that imports would sideline American ranchers and that we should focus on cutting red tape, lowering production costs and supporting cattle herd growth. These priorities are valid – but they’re not mutually exclusive with strategic imports.
RFK JR BACKS BEEF, DECLARING ‘WAR ON PROTEIN IS OVER’ AS HE THANKS AMERICA’S CATTLE RANCHERS
The notion that imports should be avoided is misguided and ignores structural supply realities. Strategic imports like lean trimmings can stabilize prices while allowing U.S. producers to concentrate on premium markets, where profitability is strongest. This is how we pave the path for rancher success.
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If U.S. ranchers are forced to simultaneously try and dominate serving both low-margin ground products and high-margin premium markets with higher-end cuts, they may become overwhelmed. From a long-term market perspective, overextension can discourage heifer retention and delay necessary herd rebuilding.
President Trump and his team are on the right path with the Argentina deal. This expansion should be defended unapologetically, incorporated beyond just 2026, and considered as part of a long-term strategy rather than a temporary measure.
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Permanently expanding Argentina’s tariff-free access to the U.S. market for lean beef trimmings is how we ensure prices stop rising. The administration should also consider opportunities for expanded imports from other South American nations, such as Paraguay and Uruguay, where production aligns with U.S. market gaps.
Building an American First beef market requires precision and long-term thinking. The current policy shifts are moving in the right direction, which will support ranchers, strengthen our market and deliver affordability for American consumers.
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Southwest
5th Circuit clears Texas to enforce drag show law in front of minors, Paxton claims ‘major win’
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An appellate court found on Wednesday that Texas can enforce a law regulating drag shows in public places and in the presence of minors, scrapping a lower court order that had enjoined the state from doing so.
A panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit reaffirmed its November ruling, saying Texas can enforce the 2023 law regulating “sexually oriented performances.” The two-judge panel said only one plaintiff in the case had standing and sent the lawsuit back to the lower court to reevaluate the plaintiff’s First Amendment claim.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is a candidate for Senate, framed the decision as a “major win” in a statement on social media.
“I successfully defended a law protecting children from being exposed to sexually illicit content at erotic drag shows,” Paxton said. “I will always work to shield our kids from exposure to erotic and inappropriate sexually oriented performances.”
A drag queen performs a routine set to the song “Killing in the Name” by Rage Against the Machine at the Texas State Capitol during the “No Kings” national rally in Austin, Texas on June 14, 2025, on the same day as President Trump’s military parade in Washington, D.C. (SERGIO FLORES/AFP via Getty Images)
The lawsuit, brought by numerous self-described LGBTQ organizations, centered on a state Senate bill that defined sexually oriented performances as visual performances that feature a nude person or sexual conduct and “[appeal] to the prurient interest in sex.” Under the law, a person could be prosecuted for causing a performance to occur in the presence of minors.
Judge Kurt Engelhardt, an appointee of President Donald Trump, authored the opinion and was joined by Judge Leslie Southwick, an appointee of former President George W. Bush.
The judges found that most of the plaintiffs, including a nonprofit called Woodlands Pride, did not have standing to bring First and Fourteenth Amendment challenges to the law because the groups’ performances were benign and therefore not relevant to the Texas law.
The judges said, however, that a group called 360 Queen Entertainment did engage in explicit enough performances, sometimes in the presence of minors, and therefore had standing.
APPEALS COURT SAYS TEXAS CAN ENFORCE DRAG SHOW BAN, SUGGESTS NOT ALL DRAG SHOWS VIOLATE STATE LAW
The Texas State Capitol in Austin (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)
“Based on the evidence introduced at trial, 360 Queen’s performances arguably include proscribed conduct,” Engelhardt wrote. “The owner described one performance where a drag queen, who was wearing a ‘very revealing’ breastplate, pulsed the breastplate in front of people and put the breastplate in people’s faces.”
Sometimes those performances were visible to children, Engelhardt noted.
The panel ordered the district court to evaluate whether 360 Queen was right to claim the Texas law violated its free speech rights under the First Amendment.
In a statement, Brian Klosterboer of the American Civil Liberties Union of Texas said the 5th Circuit effectively deemed some drag performances “family-friendly” but that the law, which will go into effect in March, still had perceived constitutional problems.
“The law’s vague and sweeping provisions still create a harmful chilling effect for drag artists and those who support them, while also threatening many types of performing arts cherished here in Texas, from theater to ballet to professional wrestling,” Klosterboer said.
An appellate court found on Wednesday that Texas can enforce a law regulating drag shows in public places and in the presence of minors, scrapping a lower court order that had enjoined the state from doing so. (Getty Images)
In 2023, Judge David Hittner, an appointee of President Ronald Reagan, found Texas’ law was unconstitutional. It is “not unreasonable” to think it could affect activities like live theater or dancing, Hittner wrote.
Last November, the 5th Circuit vacated that order. On Wednesday, it reaffirmed that decision and denied the plaintiffs’ request to rehear their appeal.
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Southwest
Man arrested on misdemeanor DUI charges outside Nancy Guthrie’s home after sobriety test
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TUCSON, Ariz. — A 34-year-old man was arrested late Thursday night outside the Arizona home where Nancy Guthrie went missing earlier this month, the Pima County Sheriff’s Department told Fox News Digital.
Shortly before 8 p.m. Thursday, deputies arrested 34-year-old Antonio De Jesus Pena-Campos in front of Guthrie’s home on misdemeanor DUI charges, the department said.
The arrest is not related to the Guthrie investigation, the Pima County Sheriff’s Department added.
Pima County sheriff’s deputies stopped a blue Chevrolet Equinox compact SUV near Nancy Guthrie’s Tucson home late Thursday night. A man was later taken into custody after what appeared to be field sobriety testing. (Fox News)
Footage shows Pima County sheriff’s deputies shining a flashlight into the driver’s side of what appeared to be a blue Chevrolet Equinox compact SUV parked near the home where Guthrie was last seen Feb. 1.
Moments later, deputies spoke with Pena-Campos near a white canopy tent set up along the roadside as a deputy shined a flashlight toward the man’s face.
In another sequence, Pena-Campos walks in a straight line in what appears to be part of a field sobriety test. In subsequent footage, he is placed in the back of a sheriff’s pickup truck.
The man was detained as investigators continue searching for Guthrie, the 84-year-old mother of “Today” co-host Savannah Guthrie, who was reported missing Feb. 1 after authorities said she was taken during a home invasion. Investigators have said her pacemaker last synced with her iPhone around 2:30 a.m. that morning.
Her family has since offered a $1 million reward for information leading to her safe return as authorities continue to pursue leads.
NANCY GUTHRIE’S NEIGHBOR SAW SUSPICIOUS MAN WALKING NEARBY 2 WEEKS BEFORE SUSPECTED ABDUCTION
A deputy shines a flashlight toward a man’s face during what appears to be field sobriety testing outside Nancy Guthrie’s Tucson home late Thursday night. The man was later taken into custody. (Fox News)
The development comes after a Catalina Foothills resident’s street-facing Ring camera captured 12 vehicles passing by between midnight and 6 a.m. on Feb. 1, the morning Guthrie is believed to have been abducted.
Some of the activity occurred around the 2:30 a.m. mark, roughly when authorities said the 84-year-old’s pacemaker last synced with her iPhone.
A man walks in a straight line under the direction of deputies during what appears to be field sobriety testing outside Nancy Guthrie’s Tucson home late Thursday night. (Fox News)
Homeowners Elias and Danielle Stratigouleas told Fox News Digital that police had not canvassed their neighborhood in the 25 days since Guthrie was allegedly taken from her bed in what authorities have described as a home invasion kidnapping.
The couple said they alerted both the FBI and the Pima County Sheriff’s Department to the footage. It was not immediately clear whether the video would prove useful to investigators or whether any of the vehicles had traveled on Guthrie’s street.
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Pima County sheriff’s deputies speak with a man near a white canopy tent set up along the roadside outside Nancy Guthrie’s Tucson home late Thursday night. (Fox News)
The Stratigouleas home sits on a back road that leads out of Guthrie’s neighborhood and avoids major intersections. The property is approximately 2½ miles — or about a seven-minute drive — from the crime scene, according to Google Maps.
One of the videos was recorded at approximately 2:36 a.m., roughly eight minutes after Guthrie’s pacemaker last synced with her iPhone, based on the sheriff’s timeline.
Fox News’ Michael Ruiz and Olivia Palombo contributed to this report.
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