- Trump appears little concerned with treaty expiration
- Treaty expires on February 5
- Putin has offered to keep limits if US does
- China says it would not be ‘reasonable nor realistic’ to ask Beijing to join the treaty
World
Ukraine accepts demilitarised zone to end Russia war, but do DMZs work?
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Kyiv is willing to turn the parts of the Donbas region that his troops currently control into a demilitarised zone (DMZ) if Russia also commits to keeping its soldiers out of this eastern region of Ukraine.
Zelenskyy’s comments represent Ukraine’s biggest territorial concession so far as he faces mounting pressure from both Russian military advances and United States President Donald Trump to agree to a ceasefire with Moscow.
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The Ukrainian president also spoke of a second DMZ near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Europe’s largest, which is currently controlled by Russia. The DMZ proposals, he said, were part of a 20-point peace plan seeking the end of the Ukraine war that Zelenskyy on Tuesday said was backed by the US.
Here is what we know about the plan and whether demilitarised zones could work in Ukraine:
What is the 20-point peace plan?
Zelenskyy unveiled the plan in a two-hour briefing with journalists, reading aloud from a highlighted and annotated copy. The plan was formulated by negotiators from Washington and Kyiv in Florida over the weekend.
Here’s where negotiations stand on key issues:
- Ukraine’s NATO membership: Russia has insisted from the start of the war that it will not accept Ukraine as a part of NATO. The Trump administration, too, has made clear that Ukraine must give up its hopes of joining the military alliance. But Ukraine continues to resist pressure to introduce constitutional amendments explicitly stating that it will stay neutral and not seek NATO membership. “It is the choice of NATO members whether to have Ukraine or not,” Zelenskyy said on Tuesday. “Our choice has been made. We moved away from the proposed changes to the Constitution of Ukraine that would have prohibited Ukraine from joining NATO.”
- Territorial concessions: Zelenskyy said any proposal requiring Ukraine to withdraw its troops would have to be approved through a national referendum. Ukraine has repeatedly pointed to its constitution, which prevents the government from changing the country’s borders on its own. But many analysts believe that Ukraine might need to settle for a middle path – not recognising Russian-occupied regions officially while acknowledging that it does not actually control them.
- Elections: Zelenskyy said Ukraine would hold a presidential election only after a peace agreement is signed. US President Donald Trump has been pushing for elections in Ukraine while Russia has used the absence of elections during the war to question Zelenskyy’s legitimacy.
- Demilitarised zones: Zelenskyy said any areas that Ukraine pulls out from will become DMZs, which he also called free trade zones. “They are looking for a demilitarised zone or a free economic zone, meaning a format that could satisfy both sides,” he said on Tuesday, referring to US negotiators.
What are the proposed DMZs in Ukraine?
Russia has demanded full control of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which constitute the Donbas, historically Ukraine’s industrial belt.
Its troops currently control almost all of Luhansk and 70 percent of Donetsk.
The latest proposal would involve Ukrainian soldiers pulling out of the territory in the Donbas that they control – as long as Russia does not seek to occupy the region. Instead, that region is to become a DMZ.
Meanwhile, in Zaporizhzhia, Russian troops are in control of a nuclear plant that Ukraine has tried – so far in vain – to get back.
The latest proposal suggests turning the region around the nuclear plant into a DMZ, too.
But it is unclear how the proposed DMZs – if both sides were to agree to them – would be governed, who might ensure that both sides play by the rules and how resources there, such as the nuclear plant, could be shared.
“It’s a point in the plan that is supposed to satisfy both sides,” Marina Miron, an analyst at King’s College London, told Al Jazeera.
“However, I don’t see how this is going to function because in Ukraine Zelenskyy said that Russia would have to withdraw its forces, and we’re talking about the Donbas, and I don’t see that happening, especially if Russia is winning on the battlefield.”
Miron explained that Ukraine designating demilitarised zones in this peace plan was a tactic by Kyiv to signal that it was ready for peace, thereby pushing “the diplomatic burden on Russia”.
Has Russia responded?
Moscow has not accepted or rejected the latest peace plan so far.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Wednesday that Russia was “formulating its position” on the plan. He did not comment on the specifics of the plan.
What are other demilitarised zones in the world?
Several DMZs exist. They include:
Korean Demilitarized Zone
The Korean DMZ is a 4km-wide (2.5-mile-wide) buffer zone separating North Korea and South Korea.
It was established in 1953 after the signing of an armistice ended the fighting of the Korean War.
The war had broken out in June 1950 when North Korean forces crossed the 38th parallel and invaded South Korea in an attempt to reunify the peninsula.
Korea was temporarily divided at the 38th parallel by the US and the Soviet Union after World War II. This division placed Kim Il Sung’s Soviet-backed Workers’ Party of Korea in control of the North and the US-supported Syngman Rhee government in control in the South.
The conflict lasted three years with Soviet- and Chinese-backed North Korean troops fighting against US-led United Nations forces. It killed an estimated two million people and devastated cities and villages on both sides.
The war concluded with an armistice signed by the US, China and North Korea, but South Korea refused to agree, and no formal peace treaty was ever concluded. More than 70 years later, the two Koreas remain technically at war.
UN Disengagement Observer Force Zone in the Golan Heights
The UN established a narrow strip of land as a DMZ in the Golan Heights in 1974 after the war that year between Israel and Syria and an armistice signed by the two countries.
The broader Golan Heights is a rocky patch of land that under international law belongs to Syria. Israel captured it during the 1967 Six-Day War and annexed it in 1982 in a move recognised only by the US.
The Observer Force Zone separates Israeli-occupied territory from the remaining part of the Golan Heights that is still under Syria’s control. The zone is still monitored by UN peacekeepers.
Sinai Peninsula demilitarised zones
DMZs were established in the Sinai Peninsula as part of the 1979 Egypt-Israel peace treaty. The treaty divided the Sinai Peninsula into four security zones with different military restrictions.
These zones are monitored by an international peacekeeping force called the Multinational Force and Observers.
Aland Islands
The Aland Islands are a small archipelago in the Baltic Sea between Sweden and Finland. They are an autonomous, Swedish-speaking region of Finland.
They have been demilitarised since 1921 as per a decision by the now nonexistent League of Nations. Finland and Sweden took the issue to the league because in the early 20th century, the islands were part of Finland, which gained independence from the Russian Empire in 1917.
After this, many Alanders wanted to reunite with Sweden, which spurred tensions.
Antarctica
Antarctica has been established as a demilitarised zone under the 1959 Antarctic Treaty.
This forbids military activity and nuclear testing, ensuring the continent is used exclusively for peaceful purposes and scientific research.
This is because several nations had made overlapping territorial claims in Antarctica, raising fears of future conflicts.
Preah Vihear Temple
The Thailand-Cambodia border, shaped by French colonial-era delineation, contains ambiguous boundaries and overlapping claims.
These disputes have grown more contentious as both countries strengthened their institutions and the strategic value of certain areas increased.
One of the contested zones is the culturally significant Preah Vihear Temple from the Khmer Empire, which is symbolically important to both nations. In 1962, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled that the temple belonged to Cambodia.
Disputes erupted from 2008 to 2011, marked by exchanges of artillery fire, mass displacements and duelling legal interpretations of the ICJ ruling.
In 2011, the ICJ ordered a provisional demilitarised zone around the temple.
Have DMZs worked before?
DMZs have been considerably successful in some cases, such as in the case of the Koreas.
The zone between North and South Korea has prevented the two from large-scale military conflict.
On the other hand, violence has broken out between Thailand and Cambodia this year over their border dispute, killing nearly 100 people in July and December and displacing about a million, according to official counts. The two countries reported new clashes on Wednesday.
In other cases, such as in the Golan Heights or Sinai Peninsula, demilitarised zones have prevented direct, large-scale clashes.
However, Israel has repeatedly violated the Golan Heights buffer zone, especially over the past year, using the chaos after the ouster of former President Bashar al-Assad in December 2024 to grab territory and expel Syrian families. The UN has criticised Israel’s DMZ violations.
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World
‘If it expires, it expires,’ Trump tells NYT about US-Russia nuclear treaty
WASHINGTON, Jan 8 (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump indicated he would allow the last U.S.-Russia strategic arms control treaty to expire without accepting an offer from Moscow to voluntarily extend its caps on deployments of the world’s most powerful nuclear weapons, according to remarks released on Thursday.
“If it expires, it expires,” Trump said of the 2010 New START accord in an interview he gave to the New York Times on Wednesday. “We’ll just do a better agreement.”
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Arms control advocates fear the world’s two biggest nuclear powers will begin deploying strategic warheads beyond the pact’s limits after it expires on February 5, hastening an erosion of the global arms control regime.
“There are plenty of advocates in the Trump administration … for doing exactly that,” said Thomas Countryman, a former top State Department arms control official who chairs the board of the Arms Control Association advocacy group.
A White House spokesperson referred Reuters to Trump’s comments when asked if he will accept an offer made in September by Russian President Vladimir Putin for the sides to voluntarily maintain the limits on strategic nuclear weapons deployments after New START expires.
Trump said in July he would like to maintain the limits set out in the treaty after it expires.
The agreement limits the U.S. and Russia to deploying no more than 1,550 warheads on 700 delivery vehicles – missiles, bombers and submarines.
New START cannot be extended. As written, it allowed one extension and Putin and former U.S. President Joe Biden agreed to roll it over for five years in 2021.
Trump told the New York Times that China, which has the world’s fastest-growing strategic nuclear force, should be included in a treaty that replaces New START.
Beijing, seen by the U.S. as its main global rival, has spurned that proposal since Trump promoted it in his first administration, asserting the Russian and U.S. nuclear forces dwarf its arsenal.
“You probably want to get a couple of other players involved also,” Trump said.
The Chinese Embassy in Washington said it would be “neither reasonable nor realistic to ask China to join the nuclear disarmament negotiations with the U.S. and Russia.”
“China always keeps its nuclear strength at the minimum level required by national security, and never engages in arms race with anyone,” spokesperson Liu Pengyu said when reached for comment.
A Pentagon report last month said China is likely to have loaded more than 100 intercontinental ballistic missiles across its latest three silo fields and has no desire for arms control talks.
New START has been under serious strain since Moscow announced in February 2023 it was halting participation in procedures used to verify compliance with its terms, citing U.S. support for Ukraine in its fight against Russia.
The U.S. followed suit that June, suspending its participation in inspections and data exchanges, although both sides have continued observing the pact’s limits.
Reporting by Jonathan Landay and Jasper Ward in Washington; Editing by David Ljunggren, Rosalba O’Brien and Chris Reese
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
World
Venezuela teeters as guerrilla groups, cartels exploit Maduro power vacuum
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Venezuela is teetering on the edge after the U.S. capture and arrest of former President Nicolás Maduro, as armed militias, guerrilla groups and criminal networks threaten a path toward stability, according to reports.
As interim President Delcy Rodríguez assumes control, backed by President Trump’s administration, analysts have warned that the country is completely saturated with heavily armed groups capable of derailing any progress toward stability.
“All of the armed groups have the power to sabotage any type of transition just by the conditions of instability that they can create,” Andrei Serbin Pont, a military analyst and head of the Buenos Aires-based think tank Cries, told The Financial Times.
“There are parastate armed groups across the entirety of Venezuela’s territory,” he said.
MADURO ARREST SENDS ‘CLEAR MESSAGE’ TO DRUG CARTELS, ALLIES AND US RIVALS, RETIRED ADMIRAL SAYS
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who, according to the State Department, leads the Cartel de los Soles, beside members of the Venezuelan Tren de Aragua gang in an apartment building in Aurora, Colorado. (Jesus Vargas/Getty Images; Edward Romero)
Experts say Rodríguez must keep the regime’s two most powerful hardliners onside: Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino.
“The focus is now on Diosdado Cabello,” Venezuelan military strategist José García told Reuters, “because he is the most ideological, violent and unpredictable element of the Venezuelan regime.”
“Delcy has to walk a tightrope,” said Phil Gunson, a Crisis Group analyst in Caracas.
“They are not in a position to deliver any kind of deal with Trump unless they can get the approval of the people with the guns, who are basically Padrino and Cabello.”
Since Maduro’s removal, government-aligned militias known as “colectivos” have been deployed across Caracas and other cities to enforce order and suppress dissent.
“The future is uncertain, the colectivos have weapons, the Colombian guerrilla is already here in Venezuela, so we don’t know what’s going to happen, time will tell,” Oswaldo, a 69-year-old shop owner, told The Telegraph.
WAS TRUMP’S MADURO OPERATION ILLEGAL? WHAT INTERNATIONAL LAW HAS TO SAY
Demonstrators critical of the government clash with the security forces of the state. After the last conflict-laden days, interim president Guaido, with the support of his supporters, wants to continue exerting pressure on head of state Maduro. (Rafael Hernandez/picture alliance/Getty Images)
As previously reported by Fox News Digital, armed motorcyclists and masked enforcers have erected checkpoints in the capital, searching civilians’ phones and vehicles for signs of opposition to the U.S. raid.
“That environment of instability plays into the hands of armed actors,” Serbin Pont added.
Outside the capital, guerrilla groups and organized crime syndicates are exploiting the power vacuum along Venezuela’s borders and in its resource-rich interior.
Guerrillas now operate along Venezuela’s 2,219-kilometer border with Colombia and control illegal mining near the Orinoco oil belt.
The National Liberation Army (ELN), a Colombian Marxist guerrilla group with thousands of fighters and designated a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, has operated in Venezuela as a paramilitary force.
FROM SANCTIONS TO SEIZURE: WHAT MADURO’S CAPTURE MEANS FOR VENEZUELA’S ECONOMY
Armed colectivos deploy across Venezuelan cities while guerrilla groups control borders following former President Nicolás Maduro’s capture. (Juancho Torres/Anadolu via Getty Image)
Elizabeth Dickson, Crisis Group’s deputy director for Latin America, said the ELN “in Venezuela … has essentially operated as a paramilitary force, aligned with the interests of the Maduro government up until now.”
Carlos Arturo Velandia, a former ELN commander, also told the Financial Times that if Venezuela’s power bloc fractures, the group would side with the most radical wing of Chavismo.
Colectivos also function as armed enforcers of political loyalty.
“We are the ones being called on to defend this revolutionary process radically, without hesitation — us colectivos are the fundamental tool to continue this fight,” said Luis Cortéz, commander of the Colectivo Catedral Combativa.
“We are always, and always will be, fighting and in the streets.”
Other armed actors include the Segunda Marquetalia, a splinter group of Colombia’s former FARC rebels. Both guerrilla groups work alongside local crime syndicates known as “sistemas,” which have ties to politicians.
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The Tren de Aragua cartel, designated a foreign terrorist organization by the U.S., has also expanded across Venezuela and into Colombia, Chile and the U.S.
As reported by Fox News Digital, an unsealed indictment alleges Maduro “participates in, perpetuates, and protects a culture of corruption” involving drug trafficking with groups including Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel, the ELN, FARC factions and Tren de Aragua, with most of the problematic groups named.
World
Trump says meeting Iran’s ‘Crown Prince’ Pahlavi would not be appropriate
US president signals he is not ready to back the Israel-aligned opposition figure to lead Iran in case of regime change.
United States President Donald Trump has ruled out meeting with Iran’s self-proclaimed Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, suggesting that Washington is not ready to back a successor to the Iranian government, should it collapse.
On Thursday, Trump called Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s last shah who was toppled by the Islamic revolution of 1979, a “nice person”. But Trump added that, as president, it would not be appropriate to meet with him.
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“I think that we should let everybody go out there and see who emerges,” Trump told The Hugh Hewitt Show podcast. “I’m not sure necessarily that it would be an appropriate thing to do.”
The US-based Pahlavi, who has close ties to Israel, leads the monarchist faction of the fragmented Iranian opposition.
Trump’s comments signal that the US has not backed Pahlavi’s offer to “lead [a] transition” in governance in Iran, should the current system collapse.
The Iranian government is grappling with protests across several parts of the country.
Iranian authorities cut off access to the internet on Thursday in an apparent move to suppress the protest movement as Pahlavi called for more demonstrations.
The US president had previously warned that he would intervene if the Iranian government targets protesters. He renewed that threat on Thursday.
“They’re doing very poorly. And I have let them know that if they start killing people – which they tend to do during their riots, they have lots of riots – if they do it, we’re going to hit them very hard,” Trump said.
Iranian protests started last month in response to a deepening economic crisis as the value of the local currency, the rial, plunged amid suffocating US sanctions.
The economy-focused demonstrations started sporadically across the country, but they quickly morphed into broader antigovernment protests and appear to be gaining momentum, leading to the internet blackout.
Pahlavi expressed gratitude to Trump and claimed that “millions of Iranians” protested on Thursday night.
“I want to thank the leader of the free world, President Trump, for reiterating his promise to hold the regime to account,” he wrote in a social media post.
“It is time for others, including European leaders, to follow his lead, break their silence, and act more decisively in support of the people of Iran.”
Last month, Trump also threatened to attack Iran again if it rebuilds its nuclear or missile programmes.
The US bombed Iran’s three main nuclear facilities in June as part of a war that Israel launched against the country without provocation.
On top of its economic and political crises, Iran has faced environmental hurdles, including severe water shortages, deepening its domestic unrest.
Iran has also been dealt major blows to its foreign policy as its network of allies has shrunk over the past two years.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was toppled by armed opposition forces in December 2024; Hezbollah was weakened by Israeli attacks; and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has been abducted by the US.
But Iran’s leaders have continued to dismiss US threats. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei doubled down on his defiant rhetoric after the US raid in Caracas on Saturday.
“We will not give in to the enemy,” Khamenei wrote in a social media post. “We will bring the enemy to its knees.”
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