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Winter is coming, Arizona. Here’s what NOAA, AccuWeather, almanac are predicting

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Winter is coming, Arizona. Here’s what NOAA, AccuWeather, almanac are predicting


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  • NOAA predicts a warm and dry winter for Arizona during the 2025-2026 season.
  • AccuWeather forecasts historically higher temperatures and a dry season, with potential for late-season rainfall in January.
  • The Old Farmer’s Almanac anticipates a warm winter but with rain and above-average mountain snow in some areas.

Winter starts Dec. 21, and as those colder months creep closer, Arizonans want to know what they should anticipate.

Before you start breaking out your sweaters and making your northern Arizona ski trip plans, you need to know what this winter has in store.

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The Old Farmer’s Almanac, AccuWeather and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have released their predictions for what the following winter months should bring, including snowfall, rain and temperatures.

To best understand what Arizona weather should bring for this winter season, 2025 to 2026, here’s everything to know about the Old Farmer’s Almanac, AccuWeather and the NOAA predictions.

When is the first day of winter 2025?

Winter starts on Sunday, Dec. 21, 2025.

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NOAA predicts winter will be dry and warm

NOAA predicts that most of Arizona will be 60-70% above normal temperatures for the months of November, and December. Although the southwest corner of Arizona shows it will be 40-50% above normal temperatures.

For the months of January, February and March, central and southern Arizona shows the temperature would be 40-50% above normal, while northern parts of Arizona would be 33-40% above normal temperatures.

For the months of November and December, precipitation for the western half of the state was expected to be 33-40% lower than usual according to NOAA. While the eastern part of Arizona similarly shows a 40-50% lower than normal precipitation prediction.

January, February, and March precipitation predictions remain similar, with the central and southern parts of Arizona having 40-50% lower-than-normal precipitation and the northern part predicted to have 33-40% lower-than-normal precipitation, according to NOAA.

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This will make for a dry winter with little snow due to the lack of moisture in the air and warm temperatures.

AccuWeather predicts a warmer winter with late season rainfall

The Southwest’s temperatures should run historically higher than usual due to warmth in the Pacific Ocean. According to AccuWeather’s map, central and southern Arizona’s temperatures will run at about three degrees or more above average based on historical temperatures in this region.

The warmth from the Southwest will also create a drier-than-usual season with precipitation expected to be 50-74% lower than usual, making out-of-season wildfires possible, according to AccuWeather.

Yet, January will most likely bring rainfall for the Southwest. However, come February, Arizona will return to being warm and dry, potentially bringing near-record temperature highs for February.

Lower than average snow was also expected in northern Arizona, according to AccuWeather. However, an early burst of winter storms was expected, with a lull of snow in the mid-winter season, then a resurgence in the late months of winter.

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Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts warm winter with rain, snow in mountains

Phoenix and Tucson should expect warmer winter weather. The coldest temperatures were expected mid-November to early January, according to the almanac, with rain and mountain snow hitting various areas.

High elevation areas should prepare for snow in early December and January.

Snowfall was predicted to be above average in eastern parts of the desert Southwest region such as Show Low, with the snowiest periods being early December to mid-January, according to the almanac.

Flagstaff also should expect above normal snowfall and temperatures, and slightly-above-normal precipitation. According to the almanac the snowiest periods were set for late January to late March.

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How Arizona powered a 1st-of-its kind space telescope rescue mission

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How Arizona powered a 1st-of-its kind space telescope rescue mission



A NASA mission to rescue its Swift Observatory from the brink has relied on Arizona, with Flagstaff’s Katalyst Aerospace supplying the spacecraft due to reach orbit and boost the telescope’s orbit.

Arizona plays a central role in a daring NASA mission: It will soon attempt to stave off the death of one of its space telescopes in danger of falling back to Earth.

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The Swift Observatory has been scanning the cosmos for more than two decades while orbiting Earth. But in recent years, NASA has noticed that the crucial satellite has been unexpectedly getting lower and lower – putting it in danger of burning up in Earth’s atmosphere.

Now, the U.S. space agency is on the cusp of mounting a rescue mission later in June – the likes of which has never before been attempted – that stunningly came together in less than a year.

The daring venture has recently reached the final stages, with the spacecraft that will fly in orbit – manufactured by an Arizona aerospace company – being mated with the rocket and the aircraft that will deploy it to orbit. If all goes to plan, the mission will soon send the spacecraft on a trajectory to intercept NASA’s telescope and reverse its decaying orbit by boosting it to a higher altitude, extending the observatory’s life.

Here’s what to know about the mission, and Arizona’s integral role in ensuring everything came together to save the observatory in time.

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What is the Swift Observatory?

Launched in 2004, NASA’s Swift Observatory has spent more than two decades orbiting Earth while studying a variety of cosmic phenomena. The satellite’s primary objective, though, is to observe gamma-ray bursts – events triggered by the catastrophic deaths of massive stars and considered to be the most powerful types of explosions in the universe.

The satellite is equipped with three multiwavelength telescopes that are able to collect data in visible, ultraviolet, X-ray and gamma-ray light.

Swift space telescope falls faster to Earth than expected

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NASA to mount rescue mission for vital space telescope named Swift

NASA and commercial partners will launch a spacecraft in June to boost Swift Observatory’s orbit, staving off its destruction and extending its life.

The Swift Observatory is in a region of space known as low-Earth orbit nearer to the atmosphere, which is also where the International Space Station resides.

All spacecraft in that region can expect to fall to lower altitudes if they don’t have propulsion systems to counteract atmospheric drag and maintain their orbits. But the Swift Observatory has fallen faster than NASA has anticipated because of increased solar storms since fall 2024.

NASA plans mission to rescue Swift

NASA could allow the Swift Observatory to fall back to Earth, where it would harmlessly burn up as it careened into the atmosphere.

Instead, the space agency is planning a mission to rescue the telescope and extend its mission for several more years.

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A successful mission would mark the first time that a commercial robotic spacecraft captured a government satellite that – unlike other spacecraft like the Hubble Space Telescope – was never meant to be serviced in space. The unprecedented venture, NASA leaders say, would also test a new capability that could be used on other missions while negating the need to spend even more money to replace the observatory.

To accomplish the risky feat, NASA will need a spacecraft designed to capture and raise the orbit of the Swift Observatory, and a rocket to launch it into space, according to the agency. In the meantime, mission teams on the ground are keeping Swift at least 185 miles above Earth, where the boost mission has the best chance of success, NASA said.

Arizona aerospace company races to develop rescue spacecraft

The spacecraft that will attempt to rescue the Swift Observatory was developed by Katalyst Space, an aerospace company based in Flagstaff, Arizona, which was awarded the $30 million contract in September 2025.

With less than a year to help NASA mount a rescue mission, Katalyst developed the LINK robotic servicing spacecraft intended to latch onto a space telescope that was never meant to be captured.

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Because Swift has no docking ports or grappling fixtures to grab onto, Katalyst built LINK with a custom robotic capture mechanism that will attach to a feature on the satellite’s main structure. The process is meant to mitigate the chance of any sensitive instruments being damaged, Katalyst said in a press release.

Why such a quick turnaround? Because Swift is falling – and falling fast.

According to Katalyst, the satellite has a 50% chance of making an uncontrolled reentry by mid-2026 without intervention, with those odds increasing to 90% by the end of 2026.

Northrop Grumman to launch LINK spacecraft

LINK will hitch a ride to space with a rocket manufactured by Northrop Grumman, a Virginia-based aerospace and defense company. At about 55 feet tall, Northrop Grumman’s Pegasus XL is classified as a small-lift rocket regarded as the world’s first privately developed orbital launch vehicle.

In mid-June, LINK was securely encapsulated in a payload fairing inside the Pegasus XL rocket at NASA’s Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia, according to Katalyst.

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The Pegasus XL was also attached around the same time to the belly of Northrop Grumman’s Stargazer aircraft tasked with deploying the rocket, NASA said in a press release. The Stargazer aircraft then took off June 18 from Wallops bound for the Marshall Islands, where the mission is due to commence.

When, where is launch?

The Pegasus XL rocket is due to launch later in June from the Kwajalein Atoll in the Marshall Islands, located in the South Pacific Ocean between Hawaii and the Philippines, according to NASA.

Rather than get the rocket off the ground vertically on a launch pad, Northrop Grumman deploys an air-launch strategy to send the Pegasus to space. The approach will require the company’s Stargazer L-1011 aircraft to take off and climb to approximately 40,000 feet over the ocean, where Pegasus will be released.

After several seconds in free-fall, the Pegasus XL will then ignite the first of its three-stage rocket motors, delivering LINK into orbit in about 10 minutes, according to Northrop Grumman.

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Eric Lagatta is the Space Connect reporter for the USA TODAY Network. Reach him at elagatta@usatodayco.com



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Arizona creates task force to crack down on cargo thefts

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Arizona creates task force to crack down on cargo thefts


PHOENIX (AZFamily) — Arizona is launching a statewide task force aimed at cracking down on cargo theft.

CargoNet estimates $725 million was lost in cargo thefts nationwide in 2025. Arizona is among the states where cargo theft happens most often.

Cargo thefts rise in Arizona

State Sen. Kevin Payne was the sponsor of Senate Bill 1452, which created the Cargo Theft Task Force and was signed into law by Gov. Katie Hobbs on Monday.

“There’s a lot of cargo theft going on,” Payne said.

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The bill creates a statewide cargo theft task force made up of six investigators, legal staff, and any law enforcement designated by the Attorney General’s office. The task force will investigate cargo theft and track new criminal trends.

“I don’t think that people thought it was as serious as it actually is,” Payne said.

Scott Cornell, chief risk officer for SPG Cargo and Logistics and chair of the Transported Asset Protection Association, said he has investigated cargo theft for three decades and that cases have become harder to solve lately

“These large, sophisticated international crime rings have taken over cargo theft in the United States, and they pull the strings from a dozen or two dozen different countries,” Cornell said.

Cornell said addressing cargo theft directly through a specialized task force at the state level could have more impact.

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“I think when you address it directly, like Arizona is with a cargo theft task force, you’re bound to have much more impact than a state that doesn’t have that specialization,” he said.

In Arizona, expensive shoes, watches and electronics are among the items stolen from semitrucks and trains in the last couple of years.

“We pay for it,” Cornell said. “The cost is absolutely going to be passed on to the consumer. There’s no question about it.”

Payne said the goal of the task force is to reduce cargo theft in Arizona.

“I sure would like to eliminate a lot of it,” Payne said. “You know, cut it down a lot. Make it to where it’s not profitable for them to do this so they’ll stop.”

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The Arizona Attorney General’s Office is in charge of establishing the task force. In a statement, the AG’s office says Attorney General Kris Mayes looks forward to continuing the ongoing work to combat retail theft and cargo theft through this task force, and it will coordinate efforts with law enforcement statewide.

The task force’s first report is due to the governor, Senate president and House speaker by July 1, 2027.

See a spelling or grammatical error in our story? Please click here to report it.

Do you have a photo or video of a breaking news story? Send it to us here with a brief description.

Copyright 2026 KTVK/KPHO. All rights reserved.

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Arizona man convicted for role in bringing cocaine to Cincinnati, other US locations for over 5 years

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Arizona man convicted for role in bringing cocaine to Cincinnati, other US locations for over 5 years


CINCINNATI — An Arizona man has been found guilty of supplying dozens of kilograms of cocaine to multiple U.S. locations, including Cincinnati, bi-weekly for more than five years.

Tucson resident Cesar Cervantes, 52, was convicted of participating in drug trafficking and money laundering conspiracies in a jury trial after the government seized more than 160 kilograms of cocaine, three kilograms of fentanyl and $1.4 million in cash from him.

According to court documents, Cervantes would use a network to deliver drugs that originated in Mexico to multiple locations across the country, including designated couriers in Cincinnati, between at least July 2018 and August 2023. Officials said he would supply between 25 and 50 kilograms biweekly to his coconspirators.

Cervantes would then use money launderers to funnel money back to Mexico. In one instance, court documents said he had coconspirators deliver around $300,000 to two separate money launderers — one based in China and another in Colombia.

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The jury found Cervantes guilty on all counts for his role in the conspiracies following a trial before U.S. District Judge Matthew W. McFarland in the Southern District of Ohio. He faces at least 10 years and up to life in prison.





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