Abigail StClair was juggling two big purchase decisions.

The first was whether to order 150 kilos of seasonal teas from China — enough to last her business, TeBella Tea Co., until August. The second was related to a potential location in North Carolina, part of a major expansion for the Davis Islands-based company. But with shifting international trade policies and looming tariff costs, she didn’t know if the plan would fit her budget.

“It causes you to pump the brakes,” said StClair, when she would normally be “full-speed ahead.”

As of this week, there’s a 10% universal tariff on all other U.S. trading partners except China. President Trump’s announced tariffs on Chinese exports had escalated to 145% before he dropped them to 30% weeks later.

Trump had paused certain higher tariffs until July 9. With that deadline looming, economists say there could be strain on some of the state’s economy.

With trade partners from China to South Sudan and $117 billion in commodities — not including goods transported from other states — Florida last year was the 10th largest importer in the U.S., according to international trade data from the Census Bureau.

“This is impacting local businesses,” said Abby Hall, an economics professor at the University of Tampa. “This is impacting local consumers in a way that people are going to feel.”

The Tampa Bay Times asked economists and business leaders what consequences the tariffs could bring to Florida residents — and if any of them are happening yet. Here’s what we learned.

Costs for construction and manufacturing materials may rise

For imports and exports, Florida’s most valuable goods traded internationally are in manufacturing, whether for automobiles or other mechanics.

Growth in Florida’s manufacturing sector has outpaced most other states, driven by aviation, medical devices and the marine industry. A 2023 report by Florida Commerce and FloridaMakes estimated that there are more than 68,000 manufacturing jobs in Tampa Bay alone.

The sector has benefited from Florida’s population gains and business-friendly tax structure, said Kevin Carr, CEO of FloridaMakes, a group that represents manufacturers.

Some manufacturers are more prepared than others to weather challenges, Carr said. Especially since the COVID-19 pandemic, companies have already taken steps toward moving their suppliers to the U.S. to avoid disruptions.

Still, these are long-term, slow-moving changes. Companies that rely heavily on certain products, like imported steel and semiconductor chips, could be more vulnerable.

But ambiguity around duty rates is the biggest roadblock.

“The uncertainty,” Carr said. “That’s what seems to be rattling the cages of manufacturers. If we have to adapt to a new price structure, tell us what it is, and we’ll move on from there.”

Development and construction also account for roughly 659,000 jobs in Florida, and during Tampa Bay’s explosive post-pandemic growth, homes sold in the region were more likely to be new construction than in the U.S. as a whole.

But much of the supplies come from outside the U.S. According to census data, Florida ports imported more than $1.4 billion in wood products in 2024. Nearly a quarter of it originated in Brazil, and about 12% came from Canada.

The U.S. does not produce enough lumber to meet demand, a construction industry trade group noted in April. Tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber are at 14.5% — part of an ongoing trade dispute — but that number could rise.

Industry groups have championed a federal order to increase timber production, including on federal forest lands. But due to logistics like the limited capacity at U.S. sawmills to process the lumber, the impacts of this plan will likely take months or years to grasp. Environmental groups criticize the plan, saying it bypasses protections for endangered species and natural habitats.

Leisure spending is the first to feel consumers pull back

Like the rest of the U.S., bar and restaurant owners around Tampa Bay rely on certain imported products that simply can’t be replaced domestically.

Census trade data shows Florida ports imported $1.7 billion in alcohol and liquors last year — of which at least $435 million was tequila, for example. There was $613 million in coffee and $13 million in tea.

“We’re talking about a commodity that grows outside the United States,” said Roberto Torres, owner of the Blind Tiger Cafe, which has seven locations throughout Tampa and Hillsborough County. “That‘s my dilemma. How do I fix that?”

He imports coffee from Brazil, Columbia, Nicaragua and several other South American countries — each source now strapped with a 10% tariff. Torres also buys from Mexico, where there’s a 25% tariff for some beans.

He hasn’t found a U.S. company to produce paper cups at the same cost as those he imports from China. Price increases at the Blind Tiger are inevitable at this rate, he said.

Consumers might not see prices go up immediately. Hall noted some businesses might be stocking up on foreign products ahead of time, in an attempt to dampen or delay the impacts. Torres confirmed this is something he’s doing — but this represents an entirely new “math problem,” he said, involving bulk purchases and potential lines of credit.

“How can we absorb the cost of something that, overnight, just happened? We cannot sustain it,” Torres said.

Small businesses feeling impacts

Since February, there’s been an uptick in the use of the Foreign Trade Zone at Port Tampa Bay, an area where companies can hold goods before paying tariffs. They may be spreading out costs over time or waiting for lower rates, said the zone’s director, Torrey Chambliss.

But it’s probably too soon to see any broad changes in the supply chain. There hasn’t been a notable drop in vessels at the port or demand for cargo space, spokesperson Lisa Wolf-Chason said.

But some small businesses are already feeling pinched. TeBella, for instance, imports tea from at least a half-dozen countries. StClair said a $16,000 shipment of branded tea tins arrived in April that she ordered last fall. Though she made the purchase months before the tariffs, she paid an additional $11,000.

All purchases made during this time have a different calculus, she said. If she buys before more favorable tariffs are put in place, she’ll have to pay more. But after tariffs are lifted or reduced, she fears an influx of orders will create competition for cargo space.

“It‘s really challenging for small businesses, because we don’t have the negotiating power or the buying power that large businesses do,” StClair said.

When she learned last week that tariffs on Chinese goods had been reduced from 145%, she told her business manager to place the order they’d been considering. There was no time to waste, she said.

“If you’d told me six months ago I’d be paying a 30% tariff on everything I bring in from China, I would have said, ‘Absolutely not.’ Now I’m thinking that‘s great news,” StClair said.

Uncertainty causing hesitation

Much is still undecided, said Sean Snaith, an economist at the University of Central Florida, and that prevents business owners from making decisions about adjusting their supply chains or the prices levied for goods.

“The sooner we can get to what the new set of rules is going to be, the sooner we can get to the adjustment process, and consumers and businesses will make adjustments,” he said.

Torres, at Blind Tiger, said this is one of his biggest frustrations.

“We cannot program, we cannot plan,” he said. “We cannot exert our influence or talk to our vendors and partners and come up with a plan if we don’t know what the strategy is.”

The not-knowing can lead to a stagnation economists refer to as “regime uncertainty,” though it‘s not quite possible to quantify those potential lost opportunities.

“It‘s hard for us to see the very real costs associated with businesses, entrepreneurship that would have taken place, but effectively gets snuffed out or gets re-channeled as a result of policy,” Hall said.

StClair has noticed belt-tightening. She and other business owners can’t help but worry how customers’ cautiousness will hurt them in the long run. Data from the University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research shows consumer sentiment has been declining for the last three months.

StClair is hopeful that, even if tariffs remain in place, exemptions will be made for products that don’t have a competitive American market — like tea.

In the meantime, there are signs posted around TeBella shops explaining the price increases. And she is still moving forward with expansion plans: She gave a counter-offer for the North Carolina location she’d been eying, and signed a lease for a location in Sarasota.

“It’s me and a team of maybe two or three others making these decisions and trying to figure out what’s best for the business today, tomorrow and next year,” StClair said. “That’s a big responsibility to carry around.”