Connect with us

Business

‘This is Not Normal’: Trump’s Tariffs Upend the Bond Market

Published

on

‘This is Not Normal’: Trump’s Tariffs Upend the Bond Market

The bedrock of the financial system trembled on Friday, with government bond yields rising sharply as the chaotic rollout of tariffs shook investors’ faith in the pivotal role played by the United States in the financial system.

U.S. government bonds, known as Treasuries because they are issued by the U.S. Treasury, are backed by the full faith of the American government, and the market for Treasuries has long been deemed one of the safest and most stable in the world.

But the Treasury market’s erratic behavior all week has raised fears that investors are turning against U.S. assets as President Trump’s trade war escalates.

The yield on a 10-year Treasury, which underpins corporate and consumer borrowing and is arguably the most important interest rate in the world, rose roughly 0.1 percentage points on Friday. Friday’s rise added to sharp moves throughout the week that have taken the yield on the 10-year Treasury from less than 4 percent at the end of last week to around 4.5 percent this week.

These increases may seem small, but they are large moves in the Treasury market, prompting investors to warn that Mr. Trump’s tariff policies are causing serious turmoil. It matters to consumers as well. If you have a mortgage or car loan, for example, then the interest rate you pay is related to the 10-year yield.

Advertisement

Ten-year treasuries are also considered a safe haven for investors during time of volatility in the stock market, but this week’s sharp rise in yields have made this market unusually perilous.

Yields move in the opposite direction to prices. So as yields have been rising unexpectedly, investors around the world that hold trillions of dollars of Treasuries are seeing their value suddenly decline.

Rising yields on the 30-year long bond have also been historic, analysts said. This bond is considered a particular refuge for pension funds and insurance companies, because they have liabilities that stretch into the future, so they need assets that match that.

“This is not normal,” Ajay Rajadhyaksha, global chairman of research at Barclays, wrote in a report on Friday. Grappling for an explanation, Mr. Rajadhyaksha pointed to speculation by Asian investors who are selling in response to tariffs, as well as the possible unwinding of highly leveraged bets in the Treasury market. “Whatever the reason, right now, bond markets are in trouble,” he said.

The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond rose 0.44 percentage points this week, trading roughly flat on Friday. The movement signaled a sharp shift in demand for the long bond. The Federal Reserve fixes a few very short-dated interest rates that then ripple out across financial markets. But the further away from the Fed’s rates you go, the less impact the central bank has.

Advertisement

“Once you get to the long end, they aren’t really in the picture,” said Matt Eagan, a portfolio manager at fund manager Loomis, Sayles & Company. “There are fewer natural buyers in that market. Small changes to supply and demand can lead to big swings.”

Another worrying sign this week has been the decline in the U.S. dollar, which tumbled 0.8 percent against a basket of currencies representing its major trading partners on Friday. Every currency of the group of 10 nations rose against the dollar, further pointing to a move away from U.S. assets.

A weaker dollar at the same time as government bonds and stocks are selling off is a rare combination, given the dollar’s role as the global financial system’s safe haven.

Despite the monthslong slump in the stock market, which is approaching a bear market, it was the bond market looking “queasy” that Mr. Trump said prompted him on Wednesday to pause the worst of his tariffs for most countries.

“The big risk elephant in the room is the Treasury market,” Mr. Eagan said.

Advertisement

For investors, the moves echoed the wild price swings from the pandemic-induced sell-off in March 2020 and before that, a bout of volatility in September 2019. Those events spooked investors and prompted rapid intervention from the Federal Reserve to stabilize the market.

This time, the Fed is in a trickier position. The inflationary effect of tariffs warrants the central bank keeping interest rates high. But it would be more supportive to financial markets and economic growth to lower interest rates, something the central bank has so far resisted doing.

On Friday, a widely watched measure of consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level in roughly three years. Expectations for where inflation will be in 12 months time soared, underscoring the Fed’s challenge.

In the meantime, this week’s chaotic implementation, then partial reprieve, on global tariffs, followed up by an escalating trade war between the U.S. and China, has left global investors unsure of relying on the Treasury market, or even the U.S. dollar, as a source of safety and stability.

Foreign investors are among the biggest holders of U.S. government debt. Japan is the largest, based on official data, with more than $1 trillion worth of U.S. Treasury debt. The next largest in China, which holds $760 billion of Treasuries, having already reduced its holdings by more than a quarter of a trillion dollars since 2021.

Advertisement

“WAKE UP PEOPLE,” Andrew Brenner, a veteran bond trader and head of international fixed income at National Alliance Securities, wrote in a brief email. “THIS IS FOREIGN MONEY EXITING THE TREASURY MARKET DUE TO TARIFF POLICIES.”

Some analysts and investors fear that a more rapid pace of selling by foreign investors could push U.S. Treasury yields, and with them U.S. interest rates, even higher.

“Picking fights with major trading partners who also finance your debt becomes especially risky with a wide fiscal deficit and no credible plan to rein it in,” Mr. Eagan said.

Alternatives around the world are also benefiting. Germany has recently announced plans to invest in its military, financed through new debt. The country’s bond market is seen as Europe’s benchmark and is often compared to the Treasury market. As concerns about tariffs initially took hold last week, the spread, or difference, between the yield on 10-year German bunds and 10-year Treasuries shrank, as investors sought out the U.S. haven.

That has quickly reversed.

Advertisement

Business

Video: How ICE Is Pushing Tech Companies to Identify Protesters

Published

on

Video: How ICE Is Pushing Tech Companies to Identify Protesters

new video loaded: How ICE Is Pushing Tech Companies to Identify Protesters

The DHS is flooding social media companies with administrative subpoenas to identify accounts that are protesting ICE. Social media companies have pushed back but are largely complying. Our tech reporter, Sheera Frenkel, explains.

By Sheera Frenkel, Christina Thornell, Valentina Caval, Thomas Vollkommer, Jon Hazell and June Kim

February 14, 2026

Continue Reading

Business

Trump immigration sweeps upended L.A.’s economy, with some businesses losing big

Published

on

Trump immigration sweeps upended L.A.’s economy, with some businesses losing big

The first month of President Trump’s immigration crackdown in Los Angeles put a dent in the area’s economy, costing business owners millions in lost revenue and exponentially more in lost output from workers, according to a new county report.

The survey found that 82% of businesses reported negative impacts from the raids that began early last June and 44% reported losses of greater than half their normal revenue. More than two-thirds of respondents said they had changed operations, such as by reducing hours and delaying expansion plans. Some said they had to close temporarily or had difficulty obtaining supplies and services from usual vendors.

The report was prepared jointly with the L.A. County Department of Economic Opportunity; researchers from a nonprofit group called the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation conducted an online survey of hundreds of local businesses.

The survey is the latest evidence that the raids upended parts of the Los Angeles economy as some residents here illegally went underground and employers lost workers amid the arrests. It’s clear the immigration action hit some areas and sectors of the economy harder than others. Some communities were largely unaffected. But in immigrant communities such as downtown L.A., Boyle Heights and Santa Ana, merchants have reported impacts.

Advertisement

The report said some sectors, such as restaurants, construction and retail, would be particularly hard hit. But the authors said both employers and employees found innovative ways to keep going.

“How these businesses are adapting, it’s really a testament to their resilience,” said Justin L. Adams, a senior economist with the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation.

According to the report, released this week, undocumented workers contribute an estimated $253.9 billion in total economic output, equivalent to 17% of L.A. County’s gross domestic product. These undocumented workers support over 1.06 million jobs and generate $80.4 billion in labor income across a range of industries, including construction, manufacturing, retail, and services, the report said.

But when masked agents with the Department of Homeland Security started roaming the Southland, targeting immigrants for deportation and arresting the activists and American citizens who followed them on their missions, businesses suffered as workers in the county’s underground economy went into hiding.

In the first week of June alone, when the raids began in earnest and the National Guard was deployed into the city with active-duty Marines, researchers estimated that the nightly curfew downtown resulted in an estimated $840 million in economic output losses, according to the report.

Advertisement

An analysis of L.A. Metro data, according to the report, showed that bus ridership on high-vulnerability transit lines around that time declined about 17,000 monthly riders compared with baseline levels.

“The out-of-control ICE raids are doing senseless and catastrophic harm to our country, and we are seeing the toll,” L.A. County Supervisor Janice Hahn, who lobbied to commission the report alongside Supervisor Hilda L. Solis, said in a statement.

Adams, one of the authors of the report, said researchers partnered with the USC Equity Research Institute to create an updated, current estimate of undocumented workers in L.A. County, finding it to be about 948,700.

With the county’s overall population at roughly 10 million, undocumented residents represent nearly 1 in 10 people, Adams noted.

“It’s pretty sizable,” he said. “They are going to have a large economic impact on the county.”

Advertisement

That businesses in the area have been hurt by raid-related disruptions is not necessarily surprising, Adams said, but the report “reinforced and helped quantify that.”

He continued, “It’s not straightforward to do, because this is essentially trying to measure a big portion of the shadow economy.”

About 311 people responded to the survey, but not everyone fully identified themselves, their business or its location, possibly out of concern for future immigration raids, Adams said.

Across some 178 interviews, business owners described seeing significant changes among consumers, including reduced spending and customers avoiding certain areas of the county altogether. Employees expressed fear about coming to work, productivity fell due to worker anxiety, and businesses faced difficulty finding replacement workers, the report said.

Owners described additional costs such as banking expenses for loans to cover lost revenue, more advertising and marketing to attract more business, boosted wages to attract replacement workers, and legal expenses to support detained workers. One business owner said she picked up a side job in order to keep her workers employed, while others had added expenses such as lunch deliveries or gas cards to help employees avoid open areas and public transportation.

Advertisement

For small-business owners, even small fluctuations in revenue can have ripple effects, affecting their ability to pay rent and vendors.

Ben Johnston, chief operating officer of Kapitus, a firm offering financing to small businesses, wrote in a memo describing expected trends in 2026 that he expects costs to continue to rise for the restaurant industry in particular, which already struggles with thin profit margins and relies heavily on immigrant labor.

“The crackdown on undocumented immigration weighs on the industry, further reducing margins for restaurants who are trying to keep menu prices as affordable as possible,” Johnston said.

The L.A. County report echoes findings by UC Merced researchers based on U.S. census survey data that found that the week after the raids began in June, the number of people reporting private sector employment in California decreased by 3.1% — an employment downturn matched in modern history only by the COVID-19 lockdowns.

Statewide, undocumented workers generate nearly 5% of California’s gross domestic product through their wages earned and the goods and services they help produce alone, according to a report last year from the Bay Area Council Economic Institute. That rises to 9% when additional business activity and other benefits of their labor are added.

Advertisement

With 2.28 million undocumented immigrants living in California, they represent 8% of workers in the state, with nearly two-thirds having lived in the state for over a decade. Their total contribution in local, state and federal taxes is $23 billion annually, according to the Bay Area Council Economic Institute.

In L.A. County, officials have sought to stem the bleeding from the immigration sweeps by launching a fund to deliver financial relief to small businesses. As of December, some 367 businesses have been awarded more than $1.53 million in grants. The county has also expanded potential paid hours for youth who have become primary earners for their families due to immigration enforcement and sought to connect these youth to employment opportunities.

Continue Reading

Business

Video: Can You Rely on A.I. to Translate Love?

Published

on

Video: Can You Rely on A.I. to Translate Love?

new video loaded: Can You Rely on A.I. to Translate Love?

A.I. translation has become a huge industry, but how accurate is it? Our tech reporter, Kashmir Hill, explores its successes and failures through a couple who relies on of A.I. translation to communicate.

By Kashmir Hill, Gilad Thaler, Kassie Bracken, Jon Miller, Jon Hazell and Joey Sendaydiego

February 14, 2026

Continue Reading

Trending