Politics
What to Watch in Today’s Big Elections in Wisconsin and Florida
Two states nearly a thousand miles apart will on Tuesday provide the best evidence yet of whether President Trump and his Republican allies maintain robust support or whether they face a growing backlash led by a re-energized Democratic Party.
In Wisconsin, a nearly $100 million race for control of the State Supreme Court has morphed from an important clash over the state’s direction into a referendum on Elon Musk’s supersized role in national politics.
In Florida, one of two special elections for deep-red House seats suddenly seems too close for comfort for Republicans. Democrats, while still expecting to lose, are watching the margins closely for signs that their party is ascendant.
Here are five big questions heading into Tuesday’s elections.
Will Elon Musk’s millions pay off?
Mr. Musk’s support for Brad Schimel, the conservative candidate in Wisconsin, has been a full-service political operation.
The billionaire and groups tied to him have spent more than $25 million, financing a potent ground game. An army of $25-an-hour canvassers has knocked on Trump voters’ doors, and pallets of glossy mailers have assured Republicans that Judge Schimel is a Trump ally. A conservative nonprofit with ties to Mr. Musk has helped blanket the airwaves with ads bashing the liberal candidate, Susan Crawford, as weak on crime. And Mr. Musk’s giving includes $3 million to the Republican Party of Wisconsin, which has funneled the money to help Judge Schimel.
That was all before Mr. Musk spoke for nearly two hours at a rally for Judge Schimel on Sunday night in Green Bay.
If Mr. Musk’s extraordinary effort is successful, Wisconsin Republicans will be hopeful of friendly rulings by a conservative-controlled court on cases about abortion rights, voting access and the power of the state’s Republican-run Legislature.
It is possible, however, that Mr. Musk’s largess comes at a political cost to Judge Schimel. Polling shows that Mr. Musk is just as unpopular among Wisconsin Democrats as Mr. Trump is, but without as much residual loyalty from Republicans. Democrats have framed Judge Crawford’s campaign around the idea that she is battling the world’s wealthiest person.
“We are in uncharted territory where we now have the richest man in the world who is trying to buy our election and the question is: Can he do it?” said Sarah Godlewski, the Democratic secretary of state of Wisconsin.
At her closing campaign rally Monday night in Madison, Judge Crawford skewered Mr. Musk for appearing at his rally wearing the foam yellow headwear preferred by the state’s sports fans.
“Let me talk about my opponent, Elon Musk,” she said. “I saw a picture of him yesterday with a cheesehead on. First time he’s been in Wisconsin, he has not earned the right to wear a cheesehead.”
Is the Democratic energy finally here?
Democratic hopes have slowly, cautiously started to rise.
The party crowed about flipping Republican-held state legislative seats in recent special elections in Iowa and Pennsylvania. And on Saturday, voters in Louisiana rejected four proposed constitutional amendments backed by Gov. Jeff Landry, a Republican, that would have overhauled parts of the state’s tax codes and toughened penalties for juvenile offenders.
But none of those was nearly as expensive or prominent as Tuesday’s contests, and so the question of whether they were one-off upsets or a harbinger of a broader Democratic resurgence will be determined by what happens in Wisconsin and, to a lesser extent, Florida.
A victory by Judge Crawford, a mild-mannered jurist, could put wind in the sails of a new Trump resistance, similar to Jon Ossoff in April 2017. While Mr. Ossoff, now a Georgia senator, lost what was then the most expensive House race ever, he became a fund-raising juggernaut and demonstrated to scores of other candidates a path to viability against Republicans in the first Trump era.
Wisconsin Democrats have placed Mr. Musk at the center of their messaging operations in the race: To make sure voters got the point, they branded a statewide tour “The People v. Elon Musk.” Fearful of being drowned out by Mr. Musk’s millions, Democrats have helped Judge Crawford shatter fund-raising records.
“We are figuring out the path forward,” said State Representative Greta Neubauer, a Racine Democrat who is her chamber’s minority leader.
Are Democrats really competitive in Florida?
House Republicans had expected their razor-thin majority to grow easily by two seats on Tuesday in elections to replace congressmen Mr. Trump picked last year to join his cabinet.
One, Michael Waltz, became the national security adviser, while the second, Matt Gaetz, resigned his seat and later withdrew from consideration as attorney general amid an ethics investigation and Republican opposition.
Mr. Trump endorsed Jimmy Patronis, the state’s chief financial officer, to replace Mr. Gaetz in the Panhandle and State Senator Randy Fine to replace Mr. Waltz in a northeastern district that includes the NASCAR hub of Daytona Beach.
But Mr. Fine’s Democratic opponent, Josh Weil, has handily out-raised him, prompting public warnings about Mr. Fine’s chances of a comfortable victory in a district Mr. Trump won by 30 percentage points. While Republicans are still expected to prevail, both parties are watching the margin of victory closely.
Despite the Republican worries, Democrats have not made significant outside investments to help Mr. Weil’s campaign. But on Friday, Mr. Weil did score a notable national endorsement from Senator Bernie Sanders, the Vermont independent, and he campaigned on Sunday with Ken Martin, the chairman of the Democratic National Committee.
How much turnout does $100 million buy?
The last race for the Wisconsin Supreme Court, two years ago, cost about $56 million to became the most expensive judicial election in American history.
That election drew 1.8 million voters, or about 56 percent of the state’s turnout in the presidential election in 2020 — a high percentage for a state court race.
Now, with spending approaching $100 million, a key factor in the outcome is how much higher turnout will go.
America Votes, a Democratic voter mobilization group that is active in the state, estimates that just over two million Wisconsinites will vote, an increase that could account for either juiced Democratic interest or a successful Republican turnout operation by Mr. Musk. If that many Wisconsinites do vote, the turnout will be about 60 percent of the state’s turnout last November.
And as much as voters say they hate onslaughts of negative advertising and attack mailers, the evidence shows that they drive up interest, excitement and turnout.
“Everywhere I’ve been in the state, we’re getting crowds like we did last November,” said Brian Schimming, the chairman of the Republican Party of Wisconsin. “People are clicked in.”
Is Musk the future of our elections?
Mr. Musk has nearly unlimited wealth, the president’s ear and far-ranging power in Washington.
If he can single-handedly alter a state judicial race, how else might he inject himself into the country’s elections?
Victory in Wisconsin could embolden Mr. Musk to grow even more aggressive in throwing his billions behind Republican candidates for office this year and in the 2026 midterm elections. That could leave conservative candidates even more in thrall to Mr. Trump, if their primary financial benefactor continues to work out of the White House.
This is all happening while Mr. Musk stands to benefit financially from the candidates he has thrown his money and influence behind. Tesla, the electric vehicle company Mr. Musk controls, has a case against Wisconsin pending in the state’s courts, and Mr. Trump has gone out of his way to promote the billionaire’s products from the White House.
Defeat for conservatives, of course, would hardly mean that Mr. Musk would stop spending on elections. But it would prove to Democrats that he is beatable with enough money and base energy.
Still, while Democrats may see Mr. Musk as a figure who fires up their base and supercharges liberal fund-raising, that is a lot easier for them to do when Wisconsin is the marquee race in the country and a focus of national attention.
If Mr. Musk were bankrolling dozens of Trump-allied candidates for governor, Senate and Congress across the country next year, it could be a far more difficult proposition to match his financial might with the same degree of grass-roots enthusiasm when national attention is more diffuse.
Politics
Trump lists accomplishments, says ‘Radical Left Scum’ are ‘failing badly’ in Christmas message
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President Donald Trump used his Christmas Eve Truth Social post to tout his administration’s accomplishments and to bash those on the left whom he accused of trying to “destroy” the U.S.
“Merry Christmas to all, including the radical left scum that is doing everything possible to destroy our country, but are failing badly,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “We no longer have open borders, men in women’s sports, transgender for everyone, or weak law enforcement. What we do have is a record stock market and 401K’s, lowest crime numbers in decades, no inflation, and yesterday, a 4.3 GDP, two points better than expected.”
“Tariffs have given us trillions of dollars in growth and prosperity, and the strongest national security we have ever had. We are respected again, perhaps like never before. God Bless America!!!,” the president added.
In the first year of Trump’s second term, the administration launched a sweeping crackdown on illegal immigration, introduced controversial tariffs, worked to cut DEI from government programs and took steps toward fulfilling other campaign promises.
TRUMP TAKES NORAD SANTA CALLS WITH CHILDREN, PRAISES ‘CLEAN, BEAUTIFUL COAL’ AND ‘HIGH IQ’ PERSON
President Donald Trump calls children as he participates in tracking Santa Claus’ movements with the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) Santa Tracker on Christmas Eve at the Mar-a-Lago resort on Dec. 24, 2025, in Palm Beach, Florida. This is the 70th year that NORAD has publicly tracked Santa’s sleigh on its global rounds. (Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images)
The Department of Homeland Security announced Wednesday that it had arrested 17,500 criminal illegal immigrants since Trump signed the Laken Riley Act in January 2025. In a separate DHS announcement, the department unveiled the “2025 Worst of the Worst Criminal Illegal Aliens,” saying that 70% of all ICE arrests are of illegal immigrants “convicted or charged with a crime in the U.S.”
DHS Secretary Kristi Noem said in a statement on the results of the Laken Riley Act that “President Trump has empowered us to arrest and remove the millions of violent criminal illegal aliens unleashed on the United States by the previous administration. Now, these criminals will face justice and be removed from our country.”
Trump’s Christmas Truth Social post on his administration’s accomplishments was also backed up by recent economic data. On Tuesday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its initial estimate of the third-quarter GDP, which showed the economy grew at an annualized rate of 4.3% in the three-month period including July, August and September.
President Donald Trump pumps his fist at Christmas Eve dinner at his Mar-a-Lago club, Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025, in Palm Beach, Fla. (Alex Brandon/AP Photo)
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“Compared to the second quarter, the acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter reflected a smaller decrease in investment, an acceleration in consumer spending, and upturns in exports and government spending. Imports decreased less in the third quarter,” the BEA said.
While the president issued a cutting Christmas Eve statement on Truth Social, his official Christmas Day message was softer and more focused on the meaning of the holiday and the season.
In the statement, which was released by the White House on Thursday, Trump and first lady Melania Trump relayed their warm wishes to Americans while emphasizing the religious significance of Christmas.
The Trump administration launched a new website celebrating Christmas and the federal government’s contributions to the U.S. stretching back decades. (Alex Wong/Getty Images)
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“The First Lady and I send our warmest wishes to all Americans as we share in the joy of Christmas Day and celebrate the birth of our Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ,” the message reads.
Trump went on to recount the biblical story of Jesus’ birth in Bethlehem, calling it “the perfect expression of God’s boundless love and His desire to be close to His people.” The president then tied the story to the founding principles of the U.S.
“For nearly 250 years, the principles of faith, family, and freedom have remained at the center of our way of life. As President, I will never waver in defending the fundamental values that make America the greatest country in the history of the world—and we will always remain one Nation under God.”
President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump participate in calls to U.S. service members, on Christmas Eve, from the Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Florida, Dec. 24, 2025. (Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images)
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The president also paid homage to U.S. servicemembers who are overseas and are unable to be with their families for the holiday. Trump thanked them for their service and sacrifice and their dedication to protecting Americans.
“We are grateful for their devotion, and we keep them and their loved ones close in our hearts.”
Trump ended his official message with a prayer for peace in the U.S. and across the globe, extending Christmas wishes to Americans and the world.
“During the Christmas season, we pray for an outpouring of God’s abiding love, divine mercy, and everlasting peace upon our country and the entire world,” he said.. “To every American, and to those celebrating around the globe, we wish you a very Merry Christmas!”
Netflix and Paramount are locked in an epic tug-of-war for HBO and Warner Bros. — the historic film factory behind Batman, Harry Potter, Scooby-Doo, “Casablanca” and “The Matrix.”
Warner Bros. Discovery awarded the prize to Netflix, prompting Paramount to mount a hostile takeover bid valued at $108 billion for all of the Warner assets, which also include CNN, TBS, HGTV and TLC. The Larry Ellison-backed media company, run by his son David Ellison, has asked Warner shareholders to sell their shares to Paramount.
Warner Bros.’ sale has become the industry’s game of thrones.
The streaming king, Netflix, hopes to buy a chunk of the company — HBO, HBO Max, Warner Bros. film and TV studios and the 110-acre lot in Burbank — through its $82.7-billion deal. Not included are Warner’s basic cable channels, which are set to be spun off into a separate, publicly-traded company called Discovery Global.
Both deals would fundamentally reorder Hollywood and raise antitrust concerns. Netflix would boast more than 400 million subscribers worldwide, furthering its market dominance. And Paramount’s takeover would combine two major film studios and two leading news organizations, CNN and CBS News, under Ellison family control.
Here’s a look at how we got here:
Politics
Nearly 20 states sue HHS over declaration to restrict gender transition treatment for minors
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A group of 19 Democrat-led states and Washington, D.C., filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration over a declaration that aims to restrict gender transition treatment for minors.
The lawsuit against the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services; its secretary, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.; and its inspector general comes after the declaration issued last week described treatments such as puberty blockers, hormone therapy and gender surgeries as unsafe and ineffective for children experiencing gender dysphoria.
The declaration also warned doctors they could be excluded from federal health programs, including Medicare and Medicaid, if they provide these treatments to minors.
The move seeks to build on President Donald Trump’s executive order in January calling on HHS to protect children from “chemical and surgical mutilation.”
HHS UNLEASHES SWEEPING CRACKDOWN ON CHILD ‘SEX-REJECTING PROCEDURES,’ THREATENS HOSPITAL, MEDICAID FUNDING
The lawsuit was filed against the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services; its secretary, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.; and its inspector general. (Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters)
“We are taking six decisive actions guided by gold standard science and the week one executive order from President Trump to protect children from chemical and surgical mutilation,” Kennedy said during a press conference last week.
HHS has also proposed new rules designed to further block gender transition treatment for minors, although the lawsuit does not address the rules, which have yet to be finalized.
The states’ lawsuit, filed Tuesday in Eugene, Oregon, argues that the declaration is inaccurate and unlawful and urges the court to prevent it from being enforced.
“Secretary Kennedy cannot unilaterally change medical standards by posting a document online, and no one should lose access to medically necessary health care because their federal government tried to interfere in decisions that belong in doctors’ offices,” New York Attorney General Letitia James, who led the lawsuit, said in a statement.
The lawsuit claims the declaration attempts to pressure providers into ending gender transition treatment for young people and circumvent legal requirements for policy changes. The complaint said federal law requires the public be given notice and an opportunity to comment before substantively amending health policy and that neither of these were done before the declaration was released.
HHS’ move seeks to build on President Donald Trump’s executive order in January calling on HHS to protect children from “chemical and surgical mutilation.” (Tom Brenner for The Washington Post via Getty Images)
The declaration based its conclusions on a peer-reviewed report that the department conducted earlier this year that called for more reliance on behavioral therapy rather than broad gender transition treatment for minors with gender dysphoria.
The report raised questions about standards for the treatment of transgender children issued by the World Professional Association for Transgender Health and brought concerns that youths may be too young to give consent to life-changing treatments that could result in future infertility.
Major medical groups and physicians who treat transgender children have criticized the report as inaccurate.
HHS also announced last week two proposed federal rules — one to cut off federal Medicaid and Medicare funding from hospitals that offer gender transition treatment to children and another to block federal Medicaid money from being used for these procedures.
HOUSE APPROVES MTG-SPONSORED BILL TO CRIMINALIZE GENDER TRANSITION TREATMENT FOR MINORS
New York Attorney General Letitia James led the lawsuit against the Trump administration. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)
The proposals have not yet been made final and are not legally binding because they must go through a lengthy rulemaking process and public comment before they can be enforced.
Several major medical providers have already pulled back on gender transition treatment for youths since Trump returned to office, even those in Democrat-led states where the procedures are legal under state law.
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Medicaid programs in just under half of states currently cover gender transition treatment. At least 27 states have adopted laws restricting or banning the treatment, and the Supreme Court’s decision this year upholding Tennessee’s ban likely means other state laws will remain in place.
Democrat attorneys general from California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Wisconsin, Washington state and Washington, D.C., as well as Pennsylvania’s Democrat governor, joined James in the lawsuit.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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