Politics
What to Watch in Today’s Big Elections in Wisconsin and Florida
Two states nearly a thousand miles apart will on Tuesday provide the best evidence yet of whether President Trump and his Republican allies maintain robust support or whether they face a growing backlash led by a re-energized Democratic Party.
In Wisconsin, a nearly $100 million race for control of the State Supreme Court has morphed from an important clash over the state’s direction into a referendum on Elon Musk’s supersized role in national politics.
In Florida, one of two special elections for deep-red House seats suddenly seems too close for comfort for Republicans. Democrats, while still expecting to lose, are watching the margins closely for signs that their party is ascendant.
Here are five big questions heading into Tuesday’s elections.
Will Elon Musk’s millions pay off?
Mr. Musk’s support for Brad Schimel, the conservative candidate in Wisconsin, has been a full-service political operation.
The billionaire and groups tied to him have spent more than $25 million, financing a potent ground game. An army of $25-an-hour canvassers has knocked on Trump voters’ doors, and pallets of glossy mailers have assured Republicans that Judge Schimel is a Trump ally. A conservative nonprofit with ties to Mr. Musk has helped blanket the airwaves with ads bashing the liberal candidate, Susan Crawford, as weak on crime. And Mr. Musk’s giving includes $3 million to the Republican Party of Wisconsin, which has funneled the money to help Judge Schimel.
That was all before Mr. Musk spoke for nearly two hours at a rally for Judge Schimel on Sunday night in Green Bay.
If Mr. Musk’s extraordinary effort is successful, Wisconsin Republicans will be hopeful of friendly rulings by a conservative-controlled court on cases about abortion rights, voting access and the power of the state’s Republican-run Legislature.
It is possible, however, that Mr. Musk’s largess comes at a political cost to Judge Schimel. Polling shows that Mr. Musk is just as unpopular among Wisconsin Democrats as Mr. Trump is, but without as much residual loyalty from Republicans. Democrats have framed Judge Crawford’s campaign around the idea that she is battling the world’s wealthiest person.
“We are in uncharted territory where we now have the richest man in the world who is trying to buy our election and the question is: Can he do it?” said Sarah Godlewski, the Democratic secretary of state of Wisconsin.
At her closing campaign rally Monday night in Madison, Judge Crawford skewered Mr. Musk for appearing at his rally wearing the foam yellow headwear preferred by the state’s sports fans.
“Let me talk about my opponent, Elon Musk,” she said. “I saw a picture of him yesterday with a cheesehead on. First time he’s been in Wisconsin, he has not earned the right to wear a cheesehead.”
Is the Democratic energy finally here?
Democratic hopes have slowly, cautiously started to rise.
The party crowed about flipping Republican-held state legislative seats in recent special elections in Iowa and Pennsylvania. And on Saturday, voters in Louisiana rejected four proposed constitutional amendments backed by Gov. Jeff Landry, a Republican, that would have overhauled parts of the state’s tax codes and toughened penalties for juvenile offenders.
But none of those was nearly as expensive or prominent as Tuesday’s contests, and so the question of whether they were one-off upsets or a harbinger of a broader Democratic resurgence will be determined by what happens in Wisconsin and, to a lesser extent, Florida.
A victory by Judge Crawford, a mild-mannered jurist, could put wind in the sails of a new Trump resistance, similar to Jon Ossoff in April 2017. While Mr. Ossoff, now a Georgia senator, lost what was then the most expensive House race ever, he became a fund-raising juggernaut and demonstrated to scores of other candidates a path to viability against Republicans in the first Trump era.
Wisconsin Democrats have placed Mr. Musk at the center of their messaging operations in the race: To make sure voters got the point, they branded a statewide tour “The People v. Elon Musk.” Fearful of being drowned out by Mr. Musk’s millions, Democrats have helped Judge Crawford shatter fund-raising records.
“We are figuring out the path forward,” said State Representative Greta Neubauer, a Racine Democrat who is her chamber’s minority leader.
Are Democrats really competitive in Florida?
House Republicans had expected their razor-thin majority to grow easily by two seats on Tuesday in elections to replace congressmen Mr. Trump picked last year to join his cabinet.
One, Michael Waltz, became the national security adviser, while the second, Matt Gaetz, resigned his seat and later withdrew from consideration as attorney general amid an ethics investigation and Republican opposition.
Mr. Trump endorsed Jimmy Patronis, the state’s chief financial officer, to replace Mr. Gaetz in the Panhandle and State Senator Randy Fine to replace Mr. Waltz in a northeastern district that includes the NASCAR hub of Daytona Beach.
But Mr. Fine’s Democratic opponent, Josh Weil, has handily out-raised him, prompting public warnings about Mr. Fine’s chances of a comfortable victory in a district Mr. Trump won by 30 percentage points. While Republicans are still expected to prevail, both parties are watching the margin of victory closely.
Despite the Republican worries, Democrats have not made significant outside investments to help Mr. Weil’s campaign. But on Friday, Mr. Weil did score a notable national endorsement from Senator Bernie Sanders, the Vermont independent, and he campaigned on Sunday with Ken Martin, the chairman of the Democratic National Committee.
How much turnout does $100 million buy?
The last race for the Wisconsin Supreme Court, two years ago, cost about $56 million to became the most expensive judicial election in American history.
That election drew 1.8 million voters, or about 56 percent of the state’s turnout in the presidential election in 2020 — a high percentage for a state court race.
Now, with spending approaching $100 million, a key factor in the outcome is how much higher turnout will go.
America Votes, a Democratic voter mobilization group that is active in the state, estimates that just over two million Wisconsinites will vote, an increase that could account for either juiced Democratic interest or a successful Republican turnout operation by Mr. Musk. If that many Wisconsinites do vote, the turnout will be about 60 percent of the state’s turnout last November.
And as much as voters say they hate onslaughts of negative advertising and attack mailers, the evidence shows that they drive up interest, excitement and turnout.
“Everywhere I’ve been in the state, we’re getting crowds like we did last November,” said Brian Schimming, the chairman of the Republican Party of Wisconsin. “People are clicked in.”
Is Musk the future of our elections?
Mr. Musk has nearly unlimited wealth, the president’s ear and far-ranging power in Washington.
If he can single-handedly alter a state judicial race, how else might he inject himself into the country’s elections?
Victory in Wisconsin could embolden Mr. Musk to grow even more aggressive in throwing his billions behind Republican candidates for office this year and in the 2026 midterm elections. That could leave conservative candidates even more in thrall to Mr. Trump, if their primary financial benefactor continues to work out of the White House.
This is all happening while Mr. Musk stands to benefit financially from the candidates he has thrown his money and influence behind. Tesla, the electric vehicle company Mr. Musk controls, has a case against Wisconsin pending in the state’s courts, and Mr. Trump has gone out of his way to promote the billionaire’s products from the White House.
Defeat for conservatives, of course, would hardly mean that Mr. Musk would stop spending on elections. But it would prove to Democrats that he is beatable with enough money and base energy.
Still, while Democrats may see Mr. Musk as a figure who fires up their base and supercharges liberal fund-raising, that is a lot easier for them to do when Wisconsin is the marquee race in the country and a focus of national attention.
If Mr. Musk were bankrolling dozens of Trump-allied candidates for governor, Senate and Congress across the country next year, it could be a far more difficult proposition to match his financial might with the same degree of grass-roots enthusiasm when national attention is more diffuse.
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Maine state Rep. Valli Geiger, a Rockland Democrat, former nurse and former mayor, is drawing sudden national attention after saying now-former Democratic Senate nominee Graham Platner encouraged her to consider taking his place on the ballot in the Maine Senate race.
While Geiger has not been named the replacement nominee, her name entered the Maine Senate scramble after she told local outlet WMTW that Platner called her Monday night, praised her as a “fighter” and asked whether he could put her name forward. Platner’s campaign told the outlet he had not made an endorsement decision but confirmed he encouraged Geiger to consider running if he stepped aside.
After Geiger said Platner called her about potentially putting her name forward, Geiger posted Tuesday she would not “throw Graham under the bus,” while also saying she would not “slander or accuse” Jenny Racicot, the woman who accused Platner of rape, “of anything more than telling the truth as she experienced it.”
By Wednesday, local outlets were reporting that Geiger said Platner had encouraged her to consider running if he withdrew. Platner, who suspended his campaign Wednesday night, has denied the claim.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT IF PLATNER DROPS OUT? HERE’S WHO COULD REPLACE HIM ON THE BALLOT AND HOW IT COULD WORK
Graham Platner Maine State Rep. Valli Geiger (Maine State Legislature/Getty Images)
“For the movement to continue, it can’t be me. For that reason, we are suspending campaign operations,” Platner said in a video posted to social media.
Geiger is a third-term Democratic state representative from Rockland, according to her legislative biography, representing a coastal House district in Maine that includes Rockland, Criehaven Township, Matinicus Isle Plantation, the Muscle Ridge Islands, North Haven and part of Owls Head. Her biography says she serves on the Labor Committee and the Energy, Utilities and Technology Committee.
Before entering the state legislature, Geiger served six years on the Rockland City Council, including one year as mayor and four years on the Rockland Comprehensive Planning Commission, three of them as chair.
Her biography says she holds a master’s degree in sustainable design and built her own passive-solar, net-zero-energy house. It also describes her as a former nurse at Pen Bay Medical Center who later worked as a health policy analyst and health administrator, including as director of the Healthreach Hospice program and clinical director for Federally Qualified Health Centers around Maine.
The Maine State Capitol May 18, 2026, in Augusta, Maine. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
PLATNER CAMPAIGN PUTTING ‘THUMB ON SCALE’ TO INFLUENCE POSSIBLE REPLACEMENT, MAINE DEM ALLEGES
Geiger’s connection to Platner predates the latest replacement speculation. Local reporting has described her as a close Platner supporter, and WMTW reported she previously stood with him and credited him with helping secure funding for rape kit tracking in Maine.
In her Facebook post responding to Racicot’s allegation, Geiger wrote that Racicot’s story “seems credible” but added that “none of us knows the truth nor will we ever.” She also described Platner as “a man becoming a better man” and said she had hoped he would lead the political movement his campaign had built and will not “throw Graham under the bus.”
In the post, Geiger also praised Platner’s “passion for economic populism” and said she had granted him “an enormous amount of grace” for his behavior during what she described as his “dark years” after multiple deployments.
Dr. Nirav D. Shah, director of the Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention, speaks during a news conference about COVID-19 at Maine Emergency Management Agency in Augusta. (Derek Davis/Portland Press Herald via Getty Images)
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The Maine state representative is not the only Democrat whose name has surfaced as Maine Democrats prepare for the possibility that Platner exits the race against Republican Sen. Susan Collins.
Several Democrats have expressed interest or are considering bids, including former gubernatorial candidate Troy Jackson, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows and former Maine CDC Director Nirav Shah.
Under Maine law, the Maine Democratic Party can replace him on the general election ballot by selecting a new nominee through its party process, with the replacement required to be chosen by July 27.
Fox News Digital’s Andrew Mark Miller and Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.
Politics
Nexstar launches its first digital subscription service with The Hill Insider, aimed at political junkies
Nexstar Media Group’s The Hill, the political web site that started as a free newspaper read in most congressional offices in Washington, is launching a new direct-to-consumer streaming service that will be behind a paywall.
Starting Wednesday, Nexstar will offer The Hill Insider, which will carry daily streaming video programs and newsletters. Subscribers will also be able to interact with The Hill’s journalists and analysts, who will take questions live.
The service, available for $5.99 a month or $59.99 a year, is the first digital subscription product for the Irving, TX-based Nexstar, the largest owner of television stations in the U.S. Premium memberships are available for $9.99 a month, or $99.99 a year, which will be ad-free and offer access to live events presented by The Hill.
The endeavor is the first subscription streaming service offered by Nexstar. The Hill already produces a free ad-supported streaming channel distributed on such platforms as Roku.
The free version of The Hill is the most viewed political web site in the U.S. with 1.24 billion page views in 2025, a year-to-year increase of 7%, according to Comscore. The Hill is known for offering brisk, up-to-date reports out of each branch of government in Washington, and is often linked to on other websites.
Nexstar, which also owns the cable network NewsNation, acquired The Hill in 2021 from New York-based entrepreneur James Finkelstein for $130 million. NewsNation adapted The Hill brand name for its Washington-based programs, including a Sunday roundtable show with Chris Stirewalt, politics editor for The Hill and NewsNation.
NewsNation politics editor Chris Stirewalt on the set of “The Hill Sunday.”
(NewsNation)
Stirewalt and the Washington journalists and commentators seen on NewsNation programs will be featured on The Hill Insider. The service will also use the resources of Decision Desk HQ, the political media firm that was the first to call President Trump’s victory on election night in 2024. Decision Desk will be involved in a streaming show called “Data Nerds.”
The Hill Insider will be aimed at the political junkie who wants to go deeper on polling data and hear longer, in-depth discussion on issues. Bill Sammons, senior vice president of editorial content for Nexstar, said the company’s research shows there is a national appetite for such content, as only 5% of The Hill’s current audience is based in Washington.
The Hill has long touted itself as non-partisan and Stirewalt hopes users will gravitate to the subscription version to become better informed about legislative and political issues and not reaffirm their existing opinions.
“My imagined audience is of people in America who are not addicted to politics but are addicted to good citizenship and the idea of fulfilling their civic virtue,” Stirewalt said in a recent interview. “And they would like to do it in a way that doesn’t insult their intelligence.”
While the free version of The Hill has been growing, the new subscription product enters a crowded field of digital programs and platforms aimed at the consumers of political news.
The launch comes as journalists from legacy media such as former CNN anchor Jim Acosta, former ABC News correspondent Terry Moran, and Chuck Todd, the longtime moderator of NBC’s “Meet the Press,” have launched their own daily podcasts and newsletters as second acts in their careers.
MS NOW, the progressive-leaning cable news channel, is entering the direct to consumer market later this year making the channel available outside of pay-TV packages for the first time. Like The Hill Insider, the MS NOW streaming product is expected to offer users additional benefits, such as access to live events and content not seen on the cable network.
Original topical programming that does not have a shelf life is challenging to sustain on a streaming service. When Fox News Media launched its streaming service Fox Nation in 2018, it carried a line-up of live, politically-oriented shows aimed at its conservative-leaning audience. The service eventually pivoted to documentary, movies and lifestyle programming and became the home of the annual Fox News fan event, The Fox Nation Patriot Awards.
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Political heavyweight Dana White, whose endorsement of President Donald Trump was instrumental in his 2024 victory, is now hinting that he may jump back into presidential politics in 2028 because he has “become really close” with Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
This comes as White’s UFC announced a rare “sports diplomacy” partnership with the State Department this week. White and Rubio signed a memorandum of understanding establishing the partnership last month, according to a UFC statement. The league said that as part of the agreement, UFC athletes and coaches will serve as “sports ambassadors” for young athletes around the world through the State Department’s Sports Envoy Program.
White was explicitly asked by OutKick’s Tomi Lahren, whether there are any leaders he is looking at for 2028, to which he responded, “It’s funny, As I was, leading up to the White House fight, doing all this media, you know, a lot of the left media was saying to me, ‘So, you’re out of politics after this, right?’ And I can’t remember who it was that I said it to but … I said, ‘I’ve become really close to Rubio.’ We’ve become really close.”
“People are asking me if I’m going to get out of politics when the president leaves and I just said, ‘I’ve become very close to Rubio.’ He and I have become friends,” he emphasized.
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UFC President and CEO Dana White and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio shake hands as htey participate in a Memorandum of Understanding signing ceremony at the State Department in Washington, DC, on June 11, 2026. (Brendan SMIALOWSKI / AFP via Getty Images)
White said that Rubio “is a great guy, I like him,” adding, “He’s smart, I like the way he handles himself.”
He also said, “I’ve met his sons, and I like his kids and, you know, so, never say never.”
Pressed on whether Rubio is his official pick to succeed Trump as president, White clarified, “I’m not saying I’m picking.” He noted that he also likes Vice President JD Vance, who, alongside Rubio, is a rumored 2028 presidential frontrunner.
“JD is a great guy too,” said White, adding, “It’s a tricky situation, and I don’t know enough about politics to even comment on that, but, yeah, I don’t know, but it’s not a bad thing to have two strong candidates.”
Rubio and Vance are the two Republicans most discussed as possible successors to Trump. While Rubio ran for president in 2016, he has expressed support for Vance, calling him a “close friend” and saying the vice president “would be a great nominee if he decides he wants to do that.”
VIRAL MARCO RUBIO CLIP ON HIS VISION FOR AMERICA SPARKS MORE 2028 SPECULATION
Vice President JD Vance speaks during a visit to ALTA Refrigeration Inc., Aug. 21, 2025, in Peachtree City, Georgia. (Brynn Anderson/The Associated Press)
Though White stopped short of issuing a full-throated endorsement of Rubio, his partnership with the State Department through UFC underscores the high regard he appears to have for the secretary.
This is the first time the UFC has entered into such a partnership with the State Department. The NFL, which entered into a similar agreement in January, is the only other major sports organization to have signed such a formal agreement with the department.
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UFC Chief Operating Officer Lawrence Epstein said the league is “thrilled” about the partnership. He said it would allow the State Department and UFC to “work together to build bridges through community engagement.”
“We’re excited to join this program, led by Secretary Rubio, as UFC is a truly global organization with athletes representing 75 countries. We can’t wait to get started later this year,” said Epstein.
VANCE TAKES LEAD SELLING TRUMP’S IRAN GAMBLE AS RUBIO, HEGSETH AND RATCLIFFE CEDE SPOTLIGHT ON FRAGILE DEAL
President Donald Trump speaks with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and UFC CEO and President Dana White during UFC 327 at Kaseya Center on April 11, 2026 in Miami, Florida. (Julia Demaree Nikhinson – Pool / Getty Images)
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In turn, Rubio spoke very highly of the UFC, saying it “has become a global phenomenon by embracing values that resonate far beyond the Octagon: excellence, discipline, opportunity, and meritocracy.”
The secretary said the State Department is “proud” to launch the sports diplomacy partnership with UFC and to “continue growing the sport of MMA.”
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