High Representative Kaja Kallas has pitched an ambitious plan to mobilise up to €40 billion in fresh military support for Ukraine, which, if achieved, would represent a twofold increase from the defence assistance the European Union provided last year.

The plan, already nicknamed “the Kallas initiative” in Brussels, seeks to fulfill Ukraine’s priority needs to fight Russia’s war of aggression, with special emphasis on artillery ammunition, air defence systems, missiles, drones and fighter jets.

Non-lethal provisions, such as training and equipment for Ukrainian brigades, will also be taken into account to ensure the participation of neutral member states.

The donations can be made through direct deliveries of hardware or financial contributions, ideally designed to foster purchases from Ukraine’s defence industry, which has expanded at a rapid pace in the last three years.

Kallas says the initiative should be worth “at least €20 billion” and “potentially” reach €40 billion, according to the latest version of the document dated 13 March and seen by Euronews. A previous draft did not feature a clear-cut economic figure.

The wording of the plan is noteworthy.

It speaks of “participating” countries, which implies a shift towards a coalition of the willing that might – or might not – correspond with the 27 member states.

Hungary has become a vocal critic of military assistance for Ukraine, going as far as blocking the joint conclusions of a special summit last week. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has described this assistance as a “pro-war” agenda that goes against Donald Trump’s goal to achieve a settlement between the warring parties. (Orbán has refused to say whether Vladimir Putin has a pro-war or a pro-peace agenda.)

For almost two years, Hungary has maintained a veto on €6.6 billion in funds under the European Peace Facility (EPF), which is meant to partially reimburse member states for the weapons and ammunition they send to Ukraine. Diplomats have tried several avenues to circumvent Budapest and release the EPF, but nothing has worked yet.

Kallas seems keen to avoid the same mistake and is framing her new initiative as a voluntary scheme that could evade Hungary’s negative vote. Slovakia, another staunch critic of military assistance for Kyiv, might also stand in the way.

The latest draft says “participating states are encouraged” to come up with fresh contributions, a language that falls short of mandatory. The pledges should be communicated to Brussels by 30 April.

Additionally, Kallas is opening the coalition to countries outside the bloc, such as the United Kingdom and Norway, who have become closely involved in the ongoing discussions around security guarantees for Ukraine. Earlier this month, Norway boosted its 2025 pledge to NOK 50 billion, equivalent to a whopping €8.19 billion.

“The Kallas initiative is open to third states,” a high-ranking EU official confirmed on Friday. “The more countries participate, the better it is to also fulfill Ukraine’s needs to be in a strong position in the trajectory ahead.”

Unresolved questions

The Kallas plan has been the subject of debate for several weeks in Brussels.

It is set to be re-discussed on Monday during a meeting of foreign affairs ministers and again on Thursday during a summit of EU leaders. The need to ramp up support for Ukraine has become pressing in response to the Trump administration’s pivot towards Moscow and increasingly critical rhetoric against European allies.

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The High Representative wants to receive the political go-ahead from member states before turning her three-page document into a more detailed project.

“First a political will, and then the rest will follow,” said the high-ranking official.

However, no agreement is expected to materalise in either of those two meetings due to a series of unresolved technical and political questions.

Kallas has proposed that a “portion” of the military contribution be done “in line” with each country’s “economic weight,” using gross national income (GNI) as the chief indicator to ensure the largest countries provide the largest donations.

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France, for example, is believed to resist this formula because it would make the country commit to a hefty figure for the entire year, second only to Germany. According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, France ranks below Denmark, Sweden and the Netherlands, much smaller countries, when it comes to military support.

Paris is said to prefer basing its provisions on its financial cycles and Ukraine’s shifting needs on the ground. But for other governments, GNI is the most appropriate indicator as it would ensure a fair and proportionate distribution of the burden.

“We’re very much in favour of the plan, including GNI,” said a senior diplomat, speaking on the condition of anonymity. “Let’s see if it’s accepted by other member states.”

“The plan is trying to chart a new way forward, but a lot of discussion needs to take place” before a final deal, the diplomat added.

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Another issue that the capitals want to clarify is the accounting: how pledges made in recent months will be considered in the collective figure. (The latest draft speaks of support “provided in kind since 24 February 2025,” the war’s third anniversary.)

The accounting process might incorporate the value of security guarantees provided to Ukraine. This could benefit France as President Emmanuel Macron has said he would be willing to put boots on the ground to safeguard a potential deal with Russia.

Countries are also pushing for answers on how the Kallas initiative will integrate the €18 billion that the EU will supply Kyiv as part of an extraordinary loan backed by the windfall profits of Russia’s frozen assets. The European Commission, which designed the loan, has promised “maximum flexibility” to let Ukraine use the much-needed injection of liquidity to procure advanced weapons and ammunition.

There is an additional question on how effective the plan will be in practice if, from the beginning, it is built as a voluntary scheme without a strong legal foundation.

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“It’s done on a voluntary basis to bypass Hungary,” said a senior diplomat from another country. “We do expect the rest to join forces and put our money where our mouth is.”

“It’s a politically binding agreement, so we expect everybody to fulfill that.”

Alice Tidey contributed reporting.