Amid ongoing successes, there are constant signs that the Hogsett administration is fraying.

Mayor Joe Hogsett said he wouldn’t run for a third term. Then he did. So, he doesn’t have much room to be annoyed that some people are asking whether he might run for a fourth term despite saying he wouldn’t.

Mirror Indy last month asked Hogsett why he’s still holding fundraisers during a Tarkington Park groundbreaking. “I don’t want to answer a political question at a city event,” he said, even though he spent much of 2023 holding city press conferences for the benefit of his reelection campaign.

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Hogsett might not want to talk about it. But people in and around city government are increasingly getting the sense that he is considering running again in 2027. It’s his right to do that if he wants — and he’d probably win again.

But it’d be a really bad idea.

Hogsett’s chase for legacy

Nine years into Hogsett’s tenure, I maintain my view that he’s been an above average big-city mayor.

You can break Hogsett’s tenure so far into three parts: the early years, when he sought financial stability above all else; the middle years, defined by a once-in-100-years pandemic, riots and crime spikes; and, more recently, a chase for legacy.

Hogsett’s early obsession with fiscal discipline put Indianapolis in position to weather an unforeseeable pandemic and come out the other side better positioned than many other big cities. Downtown is returning to normal and the crime that skyrocketed during 2020 and beyond is trending downward.

The mayor has since pivoted to a more aggressive approach. He’s building a city-owned hotel, overseeing the long-anticipated redevelopment of Circle Centre and chasing a Major League Soccer dream that many, if not most, people thought was insane almost a year ago.

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These efforts mark a departure from Hogsett’s early, cautious years and return us, at least to some extent, to the Greg Ballard era, when the former Republican mayor was using creative financing schemes to build projects, including 360 Market Square and CityWay.

Hogsett’s MLS pursuit also bears obvious resemblance to former Mayor Bill Hudnut’s deals to build a stadium and land the Colts. Hogsett is closing in on landing an MLS club and that could very well be what he is remembered for above all else. 

Hogsett has been through three elections now in which his critics have failed to articulate a strong case against him and, more importantly, failed to persuade voters to reject him. I remain convinced that Hogsett has governed more or less like a moderate big-city Republican and that, if you put an R next to his name, Republicans would be generally happy with the job he’s done — as are most Indianapolis residents.

Hogsett’s effectiveness is waning

Amid ongoing successes, though, there are constant signs that the Hogsett administration is fraying.

Hogsett’s record is stained, at the very least, by last year’s revelations that the mayor failed to protect women on staff from men who were abusing their power. An ongoing investigation could reveal even worse information, further altering how we view Hogsett.

A third term would be harrowing even under the best of circumstances. But the sexual harassment scandal has cast a pall over the City-County Building, exhausting staff and making the Hogsett administration an even less desirable place to work.

Staffing issues are showing up at the highest levels within the administration. The Democratic-controlled City-County Council last month pushed back on Hogsett appointees to lead Indianapolis Animal Care Services and serve as deputy mayor of public health and safety.

Both cases are complicated, with blame to spread around, but Hogsett at the very least mishandled the politics surrounding those appointments. It is stunning for a Democratic-controlled council to reject two routine appointments by a Democratic mayor.

Filling leadership and staff positions is part of the nuts-and-bolts job of being mayor. Hogsett’s effectiveness is waning.

Hogsett likely will achieve his goal of serving long enough to reshape Indianapolis in ways that will be visible for generations to come. He’s also served long enough to bring about scandal and test the patience of those around him.

He might get to go out on top. That seems much less likely if he runs for mayor again.

Contact James Briggs at 317-444-4732 or james.briggs@indystar.com. Follow him on X and Threads at @JamesEBriggs.