Crypto
Bitcoin falls over 5% as volatility continues after Trump's bitcoin reserve plan
Jonathan Raa | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Bitcoin fell on Monday as volatility in the price of the world’s largest cryptocurrency continues following an executive order signed by President Donald Trump to create a strategic bitcoin reserve for the United States.
Bitcoin was trading at $81,712, down over 5% but off earlier lows, at 9:42 a.m. Singapore time, according to Coin Metrics.
The reserve will be funded by coins that have been seized in criminal and civil forfeiture cases and there are no plans for the U.S. government to buy more bitcoin. After the strategic reserve announcement last Thursday, crypto prices declined as investors were disappointed it wasn’t a more aggressive program.
Other cryptocurrency prices also dropped on Monday. Both ether and XRP were down about 7.5% at around 9:43 a.m. Singapore time.
Some investors, however, said the move to establish a reserve was bullish in the long-term.
“I absolutely think the market has this wrong,” Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Monday. “The market is short-term disappointed” that the government didn’t say it was immediately going to start acquiring 100,000 or 200,000 bitcoin, he added.
Hougan pointed towards comments on X from White House Crypto and AI Czar David Sacks, who said the U.S. would look for “budget-neutral strategies for acquiring additional bitcoin, provided that those strategies have no incremental costs on American taxpayers.”
“I think the right question to ask is: did this executive order make it more likely that in the future, bitcoin will be a geopolitically important currency or asset? Will other governments look to follow the U.S.’s lead and build their own strategic reserve? And to me, the answer to that is emphatically yes,” Hougan said.
“The reason that questions matters is that’s the question that determines if bitcoin is $80,000 a coin or $1 million a coin.”
Hougan called the decline in crypto prices a “short-term setback.”
“I think the market will soon find its footing and realize that actually this is incredibly bullish long term for this asset and for crypto as a whole,” he said.
The calls of a potential Bitcoin supercycle in 2026 intensified over the past week after former Binance CEO Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao — yet another prominent voice in crypto — laid out his predictions for the new year. However, a popular analyst on the social media platform X has released an opposing view, predicting a deep bottom for the BTC price this year.
BTC Price At Risk Of Further 65% Decline
In a January 25th post on the X platform, prominent crypto trader Ali Martinez said, in a sarcastic tone, that “the super cycle is super cycling.” In what seemed like a response to the buzz around CZ’s Bitcoin supercycle projection, the market pundit tempered the expectations with a $31,000 price bottom call for the premier cryptocurrency in 2026.
This bearish prediction is based on the appearance of price fractals on the BTC chart. For context, fractals are repeating patterns in price charts that can help map and project potential price movements for a particular cryptocurrency (Bitcoin, in this scenario).
As observed in the chart above, the price of BTC is currently following a similar movement pattern as in 2022. The premier cryptocurrency, after initially setting a then all-time high around $67,000 in early 2021, witnessed a nearly 55% correction to just above the $30,000 level by mid-July.
While the price of Bitcoin recovered and went back to set a record high of above $69,000 by the end of 2021, the market leader spent the majority of the following year in a downward trend. Exacerbated by the various bearish events of 2022, BTC ended the year at a low of around $15,500.
Martinez believes that the Bitcoin price is undergoing a similar movement pattern, having experienced an over 32% decline before climbing to the current all-time high of $126,080. The market pundit postulates that the premier cryptocurrency is currently witnessing the extended decline that saw its price reach $15,500 in 2022.
However, it is worth mentioning that the target this time around lies at $31,800, nearly 65% drop from the current price point. Hence, if the historical patterns highlighted by Martinez are to go by, there seems to be a higher likelihood of the Bitcoin price embarking on an extended downward trend rather than a supercycle.
Bitcoin Price At A Glance
As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $88,528, reflecting an over 1% decline in the past 24 hours.
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