Politics
A trade war under Trump would bring major losses for California agriculture, experts warn
As President-elect Donald Trump vows to impose tariffs on imports from China, Mexico and Canada, economists are warning that a retaliatory trade war could cause major financial damage for California’s agriculture industry.
In an analysis published before the presidential election, researchers examined potential scenarios of tariffs and retaliatory measures, and estimated that if a significant trade war occurs, California could see the value of its agricultural exports reduced by up to one-fourth, bringing as much as $6 billion in losses annually.
The experts at UC Davis and North Dakota State University said some of the most vulnerable commodities include pistachios, dairy products, wine and almonds, all of which are exported in large quantities to China.
“The worst-case scenario is pretty bleak,” said Sandro Steinbach, director of North Dakota State University’s Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies. “Basically, tariffs are harmful to U.S. agriculture, and to California agriculture in particular, because they will invite tariff retaliation.”
The researchers analyzed three scenarios of potential U.S. tariffs, two of them based on proposals floated by Trump and his campaign. They wrote that if the Trump administration were to impose large tariffs under the most extreme scenario, retaliatory measures by other countries “would have a ripple effect across the state, from the large almond orchards in the Central Valley to the small family vineyards scattered throughout wine country.”
Steinbach co-authored the research with UC Davis emeritus professor Colin A. Carter and North Dakota State doctoral researcher Yasin Yildirim.
They noted that California’s farmers previously experienced financial losses during Trump’s first administration, when the adoption of U.S. tariffs in 2018 prompted China to retaliate with tariffs on American agricultural goods. That hit California’s exports of major farm products, bringing losses for growers of walnuts, almonds and other crops.
The researchers said farmers in the Midwest received significant federal subsidies to cushion the blow in 2018 and 2019, but that California farmers were largely left out of the government compensation.
“If a new wave of aggressive protectionist policies is enacted, California’s agricultural exports could face similar consequences — up to $6 billion in annual losses — especially in key industries like pistachios, dairy, and wine,” the economists wrote.
“Rather than pursuing policies that invite global retaliatory measures, the United States should work toward more balanced trade agreements that protect domestic industries without sparking harmful trade wars,” they said. “All countries involved in a trade war lose, and California agriculture simply cannot afford another trade war.”
The research was published by the University of California’s Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics.
The researchers studied one scenario in which the U.S. would impose a 10% import tariff on all goods from every country. They also examined an extreme scenario in which the U.S. would impose a 60% tariff on Chinese goods and a 10% tariff on imports from all other countries.
More recently, Trump has promised to impose 25% tariffs on all goods from Canada and Mexico, and also an additional 10% tariff on imports from China.
“The scale of a potential trade war and subsequent retaliation is considerably larger than we have seen before,” Steinbach said.
The extent of the economic damage for California’s agriculture industry, and for producers of different crops, will depend on which approach Trump takes, Steinbach said. For example, if large U.S. tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods trigger retaliatory measures by those countries, California sellers of processed tomatoes would be hit especially hard because they depend on those countries to buy more than half of their exports.
In addition to the immediate losses the industry would face in a trade war, the costs of the disruptions probably would be lasting, Steinbach said, as foreign competitors take a larger market share and as uncertainty leads investors to put less money into California agriculture.
“We have climate uncertainty already. We have water policy uncertainty,” Steinbach said. “And if you add now an additional layer of trade and tariff policy on top of it, why would I want to invest a large amount of money into producing agricultural commodities?”
The researchers said farming areas in the Central Valley and Southern California are especially vulnerable to economic damage. They projected that five counties — Fresno, Kern, Tulare, Merced and Imperial — probably would bear the brunt of the losses in a trade war, accounting for 53% of the estimated total losses.
A majority of voters in each of those five counties voted for Trump in the election.
In the case of pistachios, the crop is considered especially vulnerable because China accounts for a large share of California’s exports. Growers have also planted vast new pistachio orchards over the last decade, dramatically expanding production as they have sought to capitalize on the lucrative crop.
The researchers said that in a worst-case scenario, pistachio exports alone could suffer annual losses of up to $1 billion.
Other commodities that are projected to see substantial declines in exports include hay, walnuts, rice, beef, grapes, oranges and cotton.
Agriculture uses much of the water that is diverted and pumped in California. But Steinbach said the potential effects on farms’ water use, both regionally and statewide, are uncertain and will depend on a complex mix of factors.
Gov. Gavin Newsom has strongly criticized Trump’s plan to impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada. During a visit to the U.S.-Mexico border in San Diego County on Thursday, Newsom described the planned tariffs as a tax that would boost food prices for Americans and add to inflation.
“Don’t think for a second this won’t impact you,” Newsom said.
The governor said that California will be affected more severely than any other state, and that farmers and ranchers “will be impacted disproportionately if these tariffs go into effect.” He said that’s before considering Trump’s plan to carry out mass deportations of undocumented immigrants, who are a large portion of California’s farmworkers.
“I hope we could all agree the impacts on this region and your pocketbook will universally be felt regardless of your politics,” Newsom said. “That’s a betrayal that needs to be revealed to those that embraced and supported this agenda. That betrayal is taking place in real time. You are being betrayed by these policies.”
Trump’s transition team responded in a written statement, saying the president-elect’s policies will benefit all Americans.
“President Trump has promised tariff policies that protect the American manufacturers and working men and women from the unfair practices of foreign companies and foreign markets,” Trump transition team spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said in the statement.
Shannon Douglass, president of the California Farm Bureau, said in an email that the state’s agriculture business “has faced significant challenges due to past trade disputes.”
“We advocate for fair trade practices and urge the federal government to prioritize policies that protect and strengthen the viability and sustainability of our nation’s agricultural sector,” Douglass said.
The plans for tariffs bring additional uncertainty for almond growers who have already been struggling because of declines in prices over the last decade. Some of those declines resulted from the last round of retaliatory tariffs imposed by China in 2018.
This year, almond prices have begun to increase again.
“The market’s rebounding. It’s coming back. Growers are still hurting,” said Jake Wenger, general manager of the Salida Hulling Assn., which runs an almond-hulling plant in Modesto. “This year, people should at least be able to pay their bills, but I do know of growers that have had to sell off some of their land to pay bills, to pay debts, just to stay in business.”
Wenger said there are about 110 growers in his co-op, but he hasn’t heard anyone voicing concerns about tariffs.
“I don’t think anybody’s that worried,” he said. “There are going to be some changes, yep, but we’ll see what happens, what changes do come, and we’ll roll with the punches, like farmers always do.”
Keith Schneller, the trade policy advisor for the Almond Board of California, said the almond industry “continues to support reducing barriers to trade.”
“We are following these discussions,” he said, “but until the next administration’s agriculture and trade policy positions are more defined, it is difficult to know what the implications might be for California almonds.”
Politics
‘Unlucky’ Honduran woman arrested after allegedly running red light and crashing into ICE vehicle
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A Honduran national had an “unlucky” encounter with Border Patrol enforcement on Friday.
The woman allegedly ran a red light in Slidell, Louisiana, and rammed into an Immigration, Customs and Enforcement (ICE) vehicle, U.S. Border Patrol Commander Greg Bovino wrote on X.
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“Apparently she never learned the lesson that red means stop,” Bovino wrote. “Not ‘accelerate and collide with a government vehicle actively enforcing federal law.’”
A Honduran national was allegedly behind the wheel of a car that ran a red light and crashed into an ICE vehicle in Louisiana, according to officials. She was then arrested by federal agents. (Greg Bovino via Facebook)
No injuries were reported as a result of the crash, according to the post, but Bovino said she was “certainly taken into custody” following the accident.
“Unlucky for her. Lucky for us,” Bovino continued in the post.
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Federal agents were reportedly in the area as part of the Operation Catahoula Crunch. The operation targets illegal immigrants in the New Orleans area, according to officials.
“Catahoula Crunch targets include violent criminals who were released after arrest for home invasion, armed robbery, grand theft auto and rape,” Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin said in a statement.
Photos, posted on social media, appear to show the woman’s vehicle damaged near the front driver’s side of the car. (Greg Bovino via Facebook)
ICE has reportedly apprehended approximately 370 people in the area, according to a Dec. 18 update.
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“DHS is making the New Orleans community safer as it continues to arrest illegal alien drug dealers, hit-and-run criminals, and one monster who was convicted for arson and threatening a person with intent to terrorize,” McLaughlin said.
Border Patrol Commander Greg Bovino at a New Orleans convenience store Dec. 3. (John Rudoff/Anadolu via Getty Images)
The DHS reported that it has deported more than 622,000 individuals in 2025 as of Dec. 19.
The department also reported that 2.5 million illegal immigrants have left the country, and an estimated 1.9 million self-deportations have occurred since President Donald Trump’s crackdown on immigration.
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Details about the Honduran woman were not made publicly available.
DHS did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment.
Folks, who was supposed to be watching grandpa last night? Because he got out, got on TV and … It. Was. Not. Good.
For 18 long minutes Wednesday evening, we were subjected to a rant by President Trump that predictably careened from immigrants (bad) to jobs (good), rarely slowing down for reality. But jumbled between the vitriol and venom was a vision of American healthcare that would have horror villainess M3GAN shaking in her Mary Janes — a vision that we all should be afraid of because it would take us back to a dark era when insurance couldn’t be counted on.
Trump’s remarks offered only a sketchy outline, per usual, in which the costs of health insurance premiums may be lower — but it will be because the coverage is terrible. Yes, you’ll save money. But so what? A cheap car without wheels is not a deal.
“The money should go to the people,” Trump said of his sort-of plan.
The money he vaguely was alluding to is the government subsidies that make insurance under the Affordable Care Act affordable. After antics and a mini-rebellion by four Republicans also on Wednesday, Congress basically failed to do anything meaningful on healthcare — pretty much ensuring those subsidies will disappear with the New Year.
Starting in January, premiums for too many people are going to leap skyward without the subsidies, jumping by an average of $1,016 according to the health policy research group KFF.
That’s bad enough. But Trump would like to make it worse.
The Affordable Care Act is about much more than those subsidies. Before it took effect in 2014, insurance companies in many states could deny coverage for preexisting conditions. This didn’t have to be big-ticket stuff like cancer. A kid with asthma? A mom with colitis? Those were the kind of routine but chronic problems that prevented millions from obtaining insurance — and therefore care.
Obamacare required that policies sold on its exchange did not discriminate. In addition, the ACA required plans to limit out-of-pocket costs and end lifetime dollar caps, and provide a baseline of coverage that included essentials such as maternity care. Those standards put pressure on all plans to include more, even those offered through large employers.
Trump would like to undo much of that. He instead wants to fall back on the stunt he loves the most — send a check!
What he is suggesting by sending subsidy money directly to consumers also most likely would open the market to plans without the regulation of the ACA. So yes, small businesses or even groups of individuals might be able to band together to buy insurance, but there likely would be fewer rules about what — or whom — it has to cover.
Most people aren’t savvy or careful enough to understand the limitations of their insurance before it matters. So it has a $2-million lifetime cap? That sounds like a lot until your kid needs a treatment that eats through that in a couple of months. Then what?
Trump suggested people pay for it themselves, out of health savings accounts funded by that subsidy check sent directly to taxpayers. Because that definitely will work, and people won’t spend the money on groceries or rent, and what they do save certainly will cover any medical expenses.
“You’ll get much better healthcare at a much lower price,” Trump claimed Wednesday. “The only losers will be insurance companies that have gotten rich, and the Democrat Party, which is totally controlled by those same insurance companies. They will not be happy, but that’s OK with me because you, the people, are finally going to be getting great healthcare at a lower cost.”
He then bizarrely tried to blame the expiring subsidies on Democrats.
Democrats “are demanding those increases and it’s their fault,” he said. “It is not the Republicans’ fault. It’s the Democrats’ fault. It’s the Unaffordable Care Act, and everybody knew it.”
It seems like Trump just wants to lower costs at the expense of quality. Here’s where I take issue with the Democrats. I am not here to defend insurance companies or our healthcare system. Both clearly need reform.
But why are the Democrats failing to explain what “The money should go to the people” will mean?
I get that affordability is the message, and as someone who bought both a steak and a carton of milk this week, I understand just how powerful that issue is.
Still, everyone, Democrat or Republican, wants decent healthcare they can afford, and the peace of mind of knowing if something terrible happens, they will have access to help. There is no American who gladly would pay for insurance each month, no matter how low the premium, that is going to leave them without care when they or their loved ones need it most.
Grandpa Trump doesn’t have this worry, since he has the best healthcare our tax dollars can buy.
But when he promises to send a check instead of providing governance and regulation of one of the most critical purchases in our lives, the message is sickening: My victory in exchange for your well-being.
Politics
Most shocking examples of Chinese espionage uncovered by the US this year: ‘Just the tip of the iceberg’
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This year has had no shortage of alarming Chinese espionage efforts targeting the United States that were uncovered by government officials.
2025 saw the conviction of a former active-duty military member accused of selling Navy secrets to Chinese intelligence, the arrests of Chinese nationals accused of trying to recruit active-duty service members as intelligence assets and smuggle dangerous toxins into the United States, the disruption of a Chinese “Hacker-for-Hire” ecosystem, and more.
“President Trump is not afraid of the Chinese,” Gatestone Institute senior Fellow Gordon Chang said on Fox Business’ “Mornings with Maria” following a new arms sale to Taiwan. However, Chang lamented that Trump was ambivalent to the “information war” with China, noting that “the Chinese are able to tar him and tell the rest of the world that Trump is afraid of the Chinese … but when you look at the reality, President Trump is going after China across the board,” Chang argued.
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One of the alarming Chinese espionage headlines to hit the news this year was an effort by several Chinese nationals to smuggle a pathogen described by the government as a “potential agroterrorism weapon” into the United States in 2024. A complaint against the suspects was unsealed by federal officials this year, leading the case to make headlines nationwide.
Flag flies in front of the embassy of China in Berlin, Germany, Monday, April 22, 2024. (Hannes P. Albert/dpa via AP, File)
One of those individuals complicit in the case, Yunqing Jian, 33, a citizen of the People’s Republic of China and a researcher employed at the University of Michigan, was allegedly receiving money from the Chinese government for her work on the pathogen the suspects were trying to smuggle. Meanwhile, her boyfriend, who worked at a Chinese university conducting research on that same pathogen, initially lied but then admitted to smuggling it through the Detroit airport so it could be taken to the University of Michigan laboratory where his girlfriend worked.
Jian eventually pleaded guilty. She was later sentenced to time served and then deported back to China. Her boyfriend was immediately deported to China when he was caught at the Detroit airport trying to bring the toxin into the United States.
Just this month, a separate Chinese researcher from Indiana University was also accused by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) of trying to smuggle a dangerous toxin into the country, this time Escherichia coli (E. coli). The FBI identified the smuggling suspect as post-doctoral researcher Youhuang Xiang, who also allegedly made false statements to law enforcement.
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Federal officials have disrupted Chinese intelligence efforts to recruit assets in the United States this year as well, according to Justice Department communications.
In July, federal officials disrupted a “Clandestine PRC Ministry of State Security Intelligence Network” that was operating in the United States and was attempting to bribe active-duty soldiers with thousands in cash to work for them as assets.
The following month, in a separate case, a federal jury convicted former Navy sailor, Jinchao Wei, also known as Patrick Wei, who was caught trying to sell military secrets to a Chinese intelligence officer for $12,000.
The national flags of the United States and China flutter at the Fairmont Peace Hotel on April 25, 2024 in Shanghai, China. (Wang Gang/VCG via Getty Images)
Hacking was a big part of Chinese espionage efforts in 2025 too.
A major Chinese-linked hacking threat referred to as “Salt Typhoon” was reported this year to have launched an attack compromising at least 200 American companies as part of its broader efforts that have included gaining access to law enforcement wiretapping mechanisms and information on members of Congress, according to the top cyber chief at the FBI. Critical infrastructure manufacturers like AT&T, Verizon, Charter Communications, and others have reportedly been exposed by the group, which was first uncovered publicly in 2024 but whose efforts have dated back several years.
Earlier this year, in March, the Department of Justice also announced that federal officials had disrupted a “Hacker-for-Hire Ecosystem” operating out of China at the direction of Chinese intelligence officers as well. These malicious actors worked for private companies and as contractors in China, which was intended to hack and steal information in a way that would obscure the Chinese government’s involvement, the DOJ said.
China’s increasing acquisition of farmland in the United States has been of growing concern during 2025 as well, with Chinese-linked entities buying up land near military bases, including a trailer park near Missouri’s Whiteman Air Force Base.
Chinese President Xi Jinping (Lintao Zhang/Getty Images)
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“From smuggling crop-killing pathogens and E. Coli into the United States, to conspicuously purchasing a trailer park that shares a fence with America’s entire B-2 bomber fleet and selling ‘green’ tech devices that spread kill switches across our electrical grid, Communist China seeks to harm the American homeland,” Michael Lucci, a China-hawk and the founder of State Armor Action, a conservative group with a mission to develop and enact state-level solutions to global security threats such as those emanating from China.
“Furthermore, these events are just the tip of the iceberg,” Lucci continued. “Lawmakers across the country must accelerate action to shield Americans from CCP influence, espionage, and sabotage. Communist China treats the United States as an enemy, and it is past time we recognize the CCP party-state always and everywhere chooses conflict with the United States.”
Fox News Digital’s Rachel Wolf contributed to this report.
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