Politics
A trade war under Trump would bring major losses for California agriculture, experts warn
As President-elect Donald Trump vows to impose tariffs on imports from China, Mexico and Canada, economists are warning that a retaliatory trade war could cause major financial damage for California’s agriculture industry.
In an analysis published before the presidential election, researchers examined potential scenarios of tariffs and retaliatory measures, and estimated that if a significant trade war occurs, California could see the value of its agricultural exports reduced by up to one-fourth, bringing as much as $6 billion in losses annually.
The experts at UC Davis and North Dakota State University said some of the most vulnerable commodities include pistachios, dairy products, wine and almonds, all of which are exported in large quantities to China.
“The worst-case scenario is pretty bleak,” said Sandro Steinbach, director of North Dakota State University’s Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies. “Basically, tariffs are harmful to U.S. agriculture, and to California agriculture in particular, because they will invite tariff retaliation.”
The researchers analyzed three scenarios of potential U.S. tariffs, two of them based on proposals floated by Trump and his campaign. They wrote that if the Trump administration were to impose large tariffs under the most extreme scenario, retaliatory measures by other countries “would have a ripple effect across the state, from the large almond orchards in the Central Valley to the small family vineyards scattered throughout wine country.”
Steinbach co-authored the research with UC Davis emeritus professor Colin A. Carter and North Dakota State doctoral researcher Yasin Yildirim.
They noted that California’s farmers previously experienced financial losses during Trump’s first administration, when the adoption of U.S. tariffs in 2018 prompted China to retaliate with tariffs on American agricultural goods. That hit California’s exports of major farm products, bringing losses for growers of walnuts, almonds and other crops.
The researchers said farmers in the Midwest received significant federal subsidies to cushion the blow in 2018 and 2019, but that California farmers were largely left out of the government compensation.
“If a new wave of aggressive protectionist policies is enacted, California’s agricultural exports could face similar consequences — up to $6 billion in annual losses — especially in key industries like pistachios, dairy, and wine,” the economists wrote.
“Rather than pursuing policies that invite global retaliatory measures, the United States should work toward more balanced trade agreements that protect domestic industries without sparking harmful trade wars,” they said. “All countries involved in a trade war lose, and California agriculture simply cannot afford another trade war.”
The research was published by the University of California’s Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics.
The researchers studied one scenario in which the U.S. would impose a 10% import tariff on all goods from every country. They also examined an extreme scenario in which the U.S. would impose a 60% tariff on Chinese goods and a 10% tariff on imports from all other countries.
More recently, Trump has promised to impose 25% tariffs on all goods from Canada and Mexico, and also an additional 10% tariff on imports from China.
“The scale of a potential trade war and subsequent retaliation is considerably larger than we have seen before,” Steinbach said.
The extent of the economic damage for California’s agriculture industry, and for producers of different crops, will depend on which approach Trump takes, Steinbach said. For example, if large U.S. tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods trigger retaliatory measures by those countries, California sellers of processed tomatoes would be hit especially hard because they depend on those countries to buy more than half of their exports.
In addition to the immediate losses the industry would face in a trade war, the costs of the disruptions probably would be lasting, Steinbach said, as foreign competitors take a larger market share and as uncertainty leads investors to put less money into California agriculture.
“We have climate uncertainty already. We have water policy uncertainty,” Steinbach said. “And if you add now an additional layer of trade and tariff policy on top of it, why would I want to invest a large amount of money into producing agricultural commodities?”
The researchers said farming areas in the Central Valley and Southern California are especially vulnerable to economic damage. They projected that five counties — Fresno, Kern, Tulare, Merced and Imperial — probably would bear the brunt of the losses in a trade war, accounting for 53% of the estimated total losses.
A majority of voters in each of those five counties voted for Trump in the election.
In the case of pistachios, the crop is considered especially vulnerable because China accounts for a large share of California’s exports. Growers have also planted vast new pistachio orchards over the last decade, dramatically expanding production as they have sought to capitalize on the lucrative crop.
The researchers said that in a worst-case scenario, pistachio exports alone could suffer annual losses of up to $1 billion.
Other commodities that are projected to see substantial declines in exports include hay, walnuts, rice, beef, grapes, oranges and cotton.
Agriculture uses much of the water that is diverted and pumped in California. But Steinbach said the potential effects on farms’ water use, both regionally and statewide, are uncertain and will depend on a complex mix of factors.
Gov. Gavin Newsom has strongly criticized Trump’s plan to impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada. During a visit to the U.S.-Mexico border in San Diego County on Thursday, Newsom described the planned tariffs as a tax that would boost food prices for Americans and add to inflation.
“Don’t think for a second this won’t impact you,” Newsom said.
The governor said that California will be affected more severely than any other state, and that farmers and ranchers “will be impacted disproportionately if these tariffs go into effect.” He said that’s before considering Trump’s plan to carry out mass deportations of undocumented immigrants, who are a large portion of California’s farmworkers.
“I hope we could all agree the impacts on this region and your pocketbook will universally be felt regardless of your politics,” Newsom said. “That’s a betrayal that needs to be revealed to those that embraced and supported this agenda. That betrayal is taking place in real time. You are being betrayed by these policies.”
Trump’s transition team responded in a written statement, saying the president-elect’s policies will benefit all Americans.
“President Trump has promised tariff policies that protect the American manufacturers and working men and women from the unfair practices of foreign companies and foreign markets,” Trump transition team spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said in the statement.
Shannon Douglass, president of the California Farm Bureau, said in an email that the state’s agriculture business “has faced significant challenges due to past trade disputes.”
“We advocate for fair trade practices and urge the federal government to prioritize policies that protect and strengthen the viability and sustainability of our nation’s agricultural sector,” Douglass said.
The plans for tariffs bring additional uncertainty for almond growers who have already been struggling because of declines in prices over the last decade. Some of those declines resulted from the last round of retaliatory tariffs imposed by China in 2018.
This year, almond prices have begun to increase again.
“The market’s rebounding. It’s coming back. Growers are still hurting,” said Jake Wenger, general manager of the Salida Hulling Assn., which runs an almond-hulling plant in Modesto. “This year, people should at least be able to pay their bills, but I do know of growers that have had to sell off some of their land to pay bills, to pay debts, just to stay in business.”
Wenger said there are about 110 growers in his co-op, but he hasn’t heard anyone voicing concerns about tariffs.
“I don’t think anybody’s that worried,” he said. “There are going to be some changes, yep, but we’ll see what happens, what changes do come, and we’ll roll with the punches, like farmers always do.”
Keith Schneller, the trade policy advisor for the Almond Board of California, said the almond industry “continues to support reducing barriers to trade.”
“We are following these discussions,” he said, “but until the next administration’s agriculture and trade policy positions are more defined, it is difficult to know what the implications might be for California almonds.”
Politics
Rubio sanctions Cuban groups with ties to US nonprofit network funded by communist donor Neville Roy Singham
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Secretary of State Marco Rubio put U.S. organizations on notice: they can no longer do business with a key Cuban organization that has spent over six decades – since the launch of Fidel Castro’s communist revolution in 1959 – cultivating relationships with U.S. activists and groups, many of them now funded by communist American tycoon Neville Roy Singham.
The sanctions target the Cuban Institute of Friendship with the Peoples, known by its Spanish acronym ICAP, an organization founded by Castro in 1960 to spread Marxist ideology and support for Cuba. Long ago, U.S. officials and intelligence assessments concluded ICAP is a key component of Cuba’s intelligence apparatus.
“For decades, Cuba has been the world capital for radical left-wing terrorism,” Rubio said. “The regime in Havana has recruited, trained and backed violent Marxist and third-worldist movements across our hemisphere and beyond.”
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Marco Rubio moves to put sanctions on a group that Fidel Castro established in 1960 to spread Cuba’s communist influence in the world. (Sven Creutzmann/Mambo Photography/Getty Images; Nathan Posner/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Earlier this year, ICAP worked with U.S. nonprofits, including the People’s Forum, Progressive International and CodePink, to organize a March “convoy” that included controversial Marxist streamer Hasan Piker landing in Cuba to support Cuba’s communist party.
The trip has since attracted federal scrutiny, with CodePink co-founder Medea Benjamin confirming she received questions from federal officials about the trip, investigating whether she violated sanctions.
Late last month, Fox News Digital published a three-part series, reporting that federal investigators are examining Cuba’s alleged malign foreign influence operation in the U.S., investigating a network of 145 groups with collective revenues of about $1 billion, promoting Cuba’s agenda and communist ideology.
“Today, we are targeting the network that enables and funds Cuba’s subversive and radical operations,” Rubio said.
The groups working closely with ICAP include the People’s Forum, CodePink, BreakThrough News and Tricontinental, funded by Singham, a Marxist tech tycoon living in Shanghai. As reported, Singham has pumped $285 million into nonprofits since 2017 that have built very close relationships with ICAP and the communist government of Cuba.
Singham is married to CodePink co-founder Jodie Evans.
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ICAP is today led by Fernando González Llort, one of five former Cuban intelligence officers, known as the “Cuban Five,” convicted in the U.S. years ago on espionage-related charges and released after spending time in jail.
Critics say ICAP acts as a gateway for revolutionaries from around the world to get embedded in the propaganda, organizing tactics and strategic goals of the Communist Party of Cuba. ICAP has denied wrongdoing and says it’s a civil society organization.
ICAP was one of five entities that Rubio designated as off-limits under sanctions authorities established by President Donald Trump’s Cuba executive order. The sanctions also target Cuba’s Ministry of the Revolutionary Armed Forces (MINFAR), the Committees for the Defense of the Revolution (CDR), Minera La Victoria S.A. and the state-run tourism company Amistur Cuba S.A., which has arranged trips to Cuba with U.S. nonprofits in the Singham network.
Experts said the move signals that the Trump administration is focused not only on the Cuban government but also on U.S. institutions that U.S. officials believe help project Cuban influence internationally.
A declassified CIA report from the Cold War era, “Cuba: Castro’s Propaganda Apparatus and Foreign Policy,” described Cuba’s international propaganda and influence activities as a central component of Castro’s foreign policy strategy. The report named ICAP among organizations that act as important instruments for cultivating sympathetic political movements abroad and extending Cuban influence beyond the island.
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One of the most notable examples was the Venceremos Brigade, a Cuba solidarity program established in 1969 that brought generations of American activists to the island through exchanges organized with Cuban authorities and institutions including ICAP.
The program became one of the most visible pipelines connecting American activists to the Cuban revolutionary government.
Today, the Venceremos Brigade operates as a fiscally-sponsored project of the People’s Forum.
Lawmakers and federal authorities are examining whether organizations funded by Singham have acted on behalf of foreign interests without properly registering and have helped amplify messaging favorable to the Chinese Communist Party and the Communist Party of Cuba.
Cuba’s President Miguel Diaz-Canel (C) listens to Progressive International’s general coordinator, David Adler, during an event at the Cuban Institute for Friendship with the Peoples (ICAP) in Havana, on March 21, 2026. (Ernesto Mastrascusa/AFP via Getty Images)
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During the recent convoy in March, Progressive International co-founder David Adler appeared alongside Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel and ICAP President González at an official event hosted by ICAP.
Years ago, Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass participated in Venceremos Brigade trips, a connection that her mayoral candidate Spencer Pratt resurfaced during her campaign. Bass has denied any wrongdoing.
Supporters of such exchanges describe them as educational and humanitarian programs intended to foster international understanding. Critics argue they function as political influence operations designed to build support for the Cuban regime and its ideological objectives.
The Cuban government condemned Rubio’s sanctions shortly after the announcement.
President Miguel Díaz-Canel accused the United States of escalating economic pressure against Cuba and attempting to intensify tensions between the two countries.
Hasan Piker, a Democratic Socialists of America member, and CodePink co-founder Jodie Evans meet in Havana, Cuba, as part of a “United Front” supporting the communist regime. (CodePink via Storyful)
“The Treasury Department has added new names of Cuban leaders, organizations and companies to an illegitimate sanctions list,” Díaz-Canel wrote on social media. “They are aimed at reinforcing the blockade measures and the scenario of conflict between Cuba and the United States.”
Rubio’s warning extended beyond the sanctioned entities.
The action signals that the administration is increasingly focused on the networks, partnerships and influence channels that U.S. officials believe have helped advance Cuban interests abroad long after the Cold War officially ended.
“Anyone providing services to these sanctioned actors is at risk of sanctions themselves,” he said. “Foreign banks and other companies that provide services to these entities should freeze those activities.”
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Fox News Digital’s Reagan Schroeder contributed to this report.
Politics
Commentary: No, Mr. Hilton, our elections are not ‘a joke.’ It’s time for you to stand up to Trump
Well, that didn’t take long.
A day after California’s primary election, President Trump took to social media with baseless claims of election fraud — predictable, but also dangerous.
“Look what’s happening in California, the Dumocrats, right before our very eyes, are stealing the Vote,” Trump wrote in one post.
“There’s BIG cheating by the Dumocrats in California,” he wrote in another, apparently enamored of his latest juvenile slur.
Never mind that his candidate, Steve Hilton, is in the lead — for now anyway.
California has once again become the main dish on Trump’s buffet of bull-hockey as he continues to undermine democracy and consolidate authoritarian power, using this disingenuous and patently untrue narrative that American elections are rigged by shadowy Democratic forces working in collusion with illegal immigrants.
That last part is called the Great Replacement Theory, the idea that “elites” are replacing white people — and white voters — with Black and brown immigrants in a bid to destroy white culture. It’s at the heart of Trump’s voter fraud allegations.
The twist this time is that Hilton, the man who wants to represent all Californians, seems to be jumping on the election fraud conspiracy train with the president. I get it, there’s the MAGA base to feed, and it’s a base that feasts on outrage and fakery. Serving up resentment glazed with lies and propaganda has been the MAGA playbook for years under Trump, a strategy that no one can deny has been heartbreakingly effective.
But Hilton is a smart man and must certainly know that voter fraud is rare, to the point of being inconsequential to election outcomes. Hilton by his own admission understands voting patterns, and that in this cycle, Republicans have voted early and often by mail, despite Trump’s claims that all vote-by-mail should be suspect. So Hilton understands that early votes have skewed his way, and that later vote tallies will likely favor Democrats.
And Hilton is definitely intelligent enough to expect that in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly three to one, he will not keep the top spot in this primary, and a slim chance remains that he will not make it into the top two. That’s just simple math.
So if Hilton truly seeks to represent this state as its top elected executive, now is the time to renounce election fraud myths and stand up to Trump’s lies. If Hilton can’t say that he believes our recent election was free and fair, then he has no business being our governor.
Unfortunately, that doesn’t seem to be the path he’s taking, even as it seems increasingly likely that he will advance to the general election.
This week, speaking with far-right podcaster and former Turning Point USA creative director Benny Johnson (who was allegedly duped into working for a Russian influence operation), Hilton said that while “so far we’re not seeing any signs” of cheating, “we’re going to be all over it. We’re not going to let them do that.”
Hilton was responding to a question from Johnson on whether Hilton will sue over “cheating.”
On a post-election appearance with Laura Ingraham, the conservative Fox News host who has repeatedly promoted the Great Replacement Theory, Hilton delved into more conspiracy.
“Just to really underline the point that you made about the corruption,” he told Ingraham an anecdote about supposed fraud in a previous election cycle when a “whistleblower” at the post office told him that they were instructed that a handwritten postmark was acceptable when sorting ballots to deliver to the county registrar.
“It’s just unbelievable, and of course, that’s why so many people don’t believe the results, but it just undermines confidence,” he told Ingraham, certainly knowing that the post office forwarding a ballot on to a county registrar in no way means it will be certified or counted. Would we really want the USPS deciding which ballots to deliver? Disingenuous on Hilton’s part at best.
“The whole thing is a joke,” Hilton went on to say of California elections, which of course, is absurd.
Thursday, when I asked Hilton’s team to speak with him about his views on voter fraud, they sent back a response that focused on the slowness of the California vote count; voter rolls Hilton has described as “wildly inaccurate,” which is a wildly inaccurate claim; and two instances of actual fraud with voter registration — not examples of votes that were counted.
To be sure, all those items are important. Any malfeasance should be punished, and the system should always strive to improve.
But how hard is it to simply be against fraud, while accurately acknowledging that it is rare and our current system provides accurate results?
I am against voter registration fraud. I am against vote fraud. I am absolutely pro-democracy, including policies such as mail-in voting that increase participation.
I do not believe that there is widespread fraud in the California primary, or in American elections in general, because the evidence does not support that conspiracy. I do not believe that Democrats are running a decades-long, nationwide conspiracy to replace white voters with votes from Black and brown undocumented immigrants, because that is both false and racist.
Pretty basic stuff, and statements in line with the values and common sense of the majority of Californians Hilton says he will represent.
If Hilton can’t come out and clearly say that Trump is wrong — about fraud and about the Great Replacement Theory — can he really be trusted to represent the values of the Golden State?
new video loaded: Jan. 6 Rioter Hired by Pentagon
transcript
transcript
Jan. 6 Rioter Hired by Pentagon
Elias Irizarry, who pleaded guilty to climbing through a broken window at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, now works for an office responsible for uncovering and defending against terrorism plots at the Pentagon.
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“Full pardon or commutation?” “Full pardon.”
By Alisa Shodiyev Kaff
June 4, 2026
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