Penn State is entering its penultimate game of the 2024 regular season, a final away matchup at Minnesota to face P.J. Fleck’s Golden Gophers. Minnesota (6-4) stands in the way of a potential 11-1 finish for the Nittany Lions. And while Fleck’s squad is unranked and a 12-point underdog, according to DraftKings, it has enough talent to cause fits for Penn State.

The Nittany Lions (9-1) have excelled this season when favored to win, avoiding letdowns against unranked opponents. A 33-30 overtime victory over USC is the closest call that James Franklin’s group has had. To maintain that success, Penn State will need some strong execution against a rested and well-prepared Minnesota squad.

Penn State vs. Minnesota predictions

Protecting the ball

Minnesota’s defense feasts on turnovers. While they’ve mostly come through 16 interceptions, the Golden Gophers also have forced seven fumbles, recovering four. Ball security, of course, is key in every game but will become especially important for Penn State when facing an opportunistic defense that tends to end up with the ball one way or another. 

“They do have some ball hawks in their secondary, but they make plays when the plays come to them,” Penn State quarterback Drew Allar said. “I can’t just give them opportunities, because they’ll capitalize on it. And you know, a decent amount of their picks have actually been forced by their D-line, whether it’s like, a tipped pass that just falls into a linebacker or the quarterback getting hit and the ball … just finds a way to their hands.”

One mistake from Allar or Beau Pribula through the air could easily become a wasted possession for Penn State. With the Nittany Lions ranked fourth in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, they can’t afford to give Minnesota’s offense extra scoring chances and find fuel for a potential home upset. The turnover battle could wind up telling the story of Saturday’s game, especially if it happens to swing in Minnesota’s favor.

“We’ve always preached about ball security, no matter what, who we’re going against, and it’s definitely a talking point for us every week, so we’re going to take great pride in that,” Allar said. “Obviously, with a team like this, the way they’re built, they’re similar to us in the fact that they want to control the ball and they want to force turnovers. So we’re just going to have to be disciplined and stick to our game plan.”

An efficient offensive ground game

Going back to its success in favorable matchups, Penn State is 66-3 against unranked teams since 2016, when factoring out the 2020 season. For as much criticism as Franklin and the Nittany Lions faced for losing to Ohio State a few weeks ago, and for losses against other top-5 opponents in past seasons, they almost always take care of business when they’re “supposed” to win. And one key in avoiding potential upsets is keeping the opposing team’s offense off the field.

Against unranked, but certainly capable opponents in West Virginia, USC, Wisconsin and Washington, running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen racked up a combined 494 rushing yards on 99 attempts, nearly 5 yards per carry. As Penn State faces a similar opponent this week, controlling the clock and letting two of the top backs in the Big Ten go to work can help the Nittany Lions diminish any momentum Minnesota finds.

With Fleck’s secondary also being one of the conference’s best, Penn State would be wise to avoid risking any big-shot throws and attack the defense where it’s most vulnerable. The Golden Gophers allow 119.8 rushing yards per game — and in each of its conference losses to Iowa, Michigan and Rutgers, Minnesota allowed at least 109 rushing yards. 

“I would say where we need to get better at is just being able to strain a little bit more in the run game, and get more finishes and more movement against teams to create more running lanes for Nick [Singleton] and Kaytron [Allen],” offensive lineman Anthony Donkoh said Wednesday. “I feel like going into [practice] and going into this game, we’re going to have a really good plan to be able to combat [Minnesota’s takeaways].”

Andy Kotelnicki brings his Minnesota roots to Penn State’s offense

Make Darius Taylor’s day a rough one

Minnesota starting back Darius Taylor has three games this season with at least 120 rushing yards. Minnesota won each game, including a 25-17 victory over ranked Illinois. In the Golden Gophers’ three conference losses, Taylor managed just 32.7 rushing yards per game and ran for 3.0 yards per carry. 

Taylor adds some complexity as a strong receiving back (312 receiving yards), but when he’s running well out of the backfield, Minnesota’s offense has clicked much more. Quarterback Max Brosmer, completing 67.1 percent of his passes this season, is also at his best when he has a strong ground game to lean on, focusing on his efficiency and avoiding turnovers rather than having to do the heavy lifting offensively.

In 2022, Penn State successfully slowed Minnesota quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis in a blowout win. But when the Golden Gophers pulled off a 31-26 upset in 2019, the Nittany Lions’ defense let quarterback Tanner Morgan do whatever he wanted, racking up 339 yards and three touchdowns on 18-for-20 passing. That type of production from Brosmer would be disastrous this time around. But should the Nittany Lions handle Taylor and Minnesota’s run game well, containing the Golden Gophers’ senior quarterback should become simpler.

“[Brosmer] I think is playing really well. … In the last three or four games he’s done a really good job of protecting the football. Their running back, No. 1, Darius Taylor, is a big back and has been playing really well for the last two years,” Franklin said. “… We’re going to have to go and play well to find a way to get a win on the road here in the Big Ten.”

The Nittany Lions will take on Minnesota at 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday on CBS.

More Penn State Football

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Daniel Mader, a May 2024 graduate of Penn State, is an Editorial Intern with The Sporting News. As a student journalist with The Daily Collegian, he served as a sports editor and covered Nittany Lions women’s basketball, men’s volleyball and more. He has also covered Penn State football for NBC Sports and the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, with additional work in the Centre Daily Times, Lancaster Online and more. Follow him on X @DanielMader_    or Instagram @dmadersports.