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Ukraine’s bonds jump as investors bet Trump will end war

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Ukraine’s bonds jump as investors bet Trump will end war

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Ukraine’s sovereign bonds have surged in price as investors bet that the incoming US administration will push for a quick end to the war with Russia.

The dollar-denominated bonds have risen 12 per cent in the past month, in expectation that the re-election of Donald Trump will lead to a ceasefire and boost Ukraine’s capacity to repay creditors.

The jump in the price of Ukrainian bonds, which one investor in the country called “the unlikeliest Trump trade ever”, comes as bets relating to the new administration have swept global financial markets in recent weeks.

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Trump has said he will end the war in Ukraine “within a day” of returning to the White House, though he has not offered specifics on how this would be achieved.

The rally has come just over two months after Kyiv completed a restructuring of more than $20bn of debt in one of the fastest and biggest sovereign debt workouts in modern history.

Bond investors are betting that the country will be prepared to accept a peace deal that involves permanently giving up territory it has lost in the war, and that its economy will recover quickly in the years ahead.

“The main part of the trade has really been based on the war ending, or at least the possibility of Trump pushing through the start of negotiations,” said Thys Louw, portfolio manager at Ninety One, which owns some Ukrainian bonds.

Among investors to own significant holdings of Ukrainian debt is fund manager BlackRock, which was a member of the bondholder committee that led the restructuring talks. BlackRock declined to comment.

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Ukrainian debt has outperformed emerging market indices since mid-October, when markets began to price in a Trump election victory.

Ukraine’s bond maturing in 2036 has risen from 44 to 49 cents on the dollar over the past month. So-called “GDP warrants” — debt securities issued under an older debt restructuring that will benefit from the country’s return of growth — having climbed even more sharply.

A bond owed by Ukrenergo, Ukraine’s state grid operator, has rallied more than 160 per cent this year to 67 cents on the dollar, despite renewed Russian attacks on infrastructure.

London-based hedge fund firm Shiprock Capital has profited from the jump in the warrants and Ukrainian corporate debt and is up 31 per cent this year to the end of October, according to an investor letter seen by the Financial Times.

Shiprock did not respond to a request for comment.

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During the early stages of the war, bondholders agreed to a halt on Kyiv’s interest payments. The September restructuring, which is designed to pave the way for Ukraine’s return to bond markets, ended the two-year freeze.

Under the September deal, investors agreed to take losses of more than a third on their bonds to help Ukraine control its surging wartime deficits — years before official creditors such as the UK, the US, Germany and Japan are set to restructure their own debts.

In return for agreeing to accept upfront losses, bondholders were also given the chance to receive higher payouts if Ukraine’s war-ravaged economy beats growth targets in the years ahead.

Some investors have cautioned that the outlook for Ukraine’s bonds is far from clear.

Mohammed Elmi, a portfolio manager at Federated Hermes, said he was sceptical of the market’s belief in Trump’s ability to secure a rapid peace deal.

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“I don’t fully subscribe to that kind of bullish view,” he said. “There is still a significant amount of unanswered questions” about where a settlement would leave Ukraine’s postwar economy and whether it would be a priority for the new US administration.

“Trump has a lot to do, with a big policy agenda to go through. These negotiations could also be quite prolonged,” he said.

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‘Music makes everything better’: A Texas doctor spins vinyl to give patients relief

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‘Music makes everything better’: A Texas doctor spins vinyl to give patients relief

Dr. Tyler Jorgensen sets “A Charlie Brown Christmas” on a record player at Dell Seton Medical Center in Austin Texas. He uses vinyl records as a form of music therapy for palliative care patients.

Lorianne Willett/KUT News


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Lorianne Willett/KUT News

AUSTIN, TEXAS — Lying in her bed at Dell Seton Medical Center at the University of Texas at Austin, 64-year-old Pamela Mansfield sways her feet to the rhythm of George Jones’ “She Thinks I Still Care.” Mansfield is still recovering much of her mobility after a recent neck surgery, but she finds a way to move to the music floating from a record player that was wheeled into her room.

“Seems to be the worst part is the stiffness in my ankles and the no feeling in the hands,” she says. “But music makes everything better.”

The record player is courtesy of the ATX-VINyL program, a project dreamed up by Dr. Tyler Jorgensen to bring music to the bedside of patients dealing with difficult diagnoses and treatments. He collaborates with a team of volunteers who wheel the player on a cart to patients’ rooms, along with a selection of records in their favorite genres.

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“I think of this record player as a time machine,” he said. “You know, something starts spinning — an old, familiar song on a record player — and now you’re back at home, you’re out of the hospital, you’re with your family, you’re with your loved ones.”

UT Public Health Sophomore Daniela Vargas pushes a cart through Dell Seton Medical Center on December 9, 2025. The ATX VINyL program is designed to bring volunteers in to play music for patients in the hospital, and Vargas participates as the head volunteer. Lorianne Willett/KUT News

Daniela Vargas, a volunteer for the ATX-VINyL program, wheels a record player to the hospital room of a palliative care patient in Austin, Texas.

Lorianne Willett/KUT News


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The healing power of Country music… and Thin Lizzy

Mansfield wanted to hear country music: Willie Nelson, Merle Haggard, George Jones. That genre reminds her of listening to records with her parents, who helped form her taste in music. Almost as soon as the first record spins, she starts cracking jokes.

“I have great taste in music. Men, on the other hand … ehhh. I think my picker’s broken,” she says.

Other patients ask for jazz, R&B or holiday records.

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The man who gave Jorgensen the idea for ATX-VINyL loved classic rock. That was around three years ago, when Jorgensen, a long-time emergency medicine physician, began a fellowship in palliative care — a specialty aimed at improving quality of life for people with serious conditions, including terminal illnesses.

Shortly after he began the fellowship, he says he struggled to connect with a particular patient.

“I couldn’t draw this man out, and I felt like he was really struggling and suffering,” Jorgensen said.

He had the idea to try playing the patient some music.

He went with “The Boys Are Back in Town,” by the 1970s Irish rock group Thin Lizzy, and saw an immediate change in the patient.

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“He was telling me old stories about his life. He was getting more honest and vulnerable about the health challenges he was facing,” Jorgensen said. “And it just struck me that all this time I’ve been practicing medicine, there’s such a powerful tool that is almost universal to the human experience, which is music, and I’ve never tapped into it.”

Dr. Tyler Jorgensen, a palliative care doctor at Dell Seton Medical Center, holds a Willie Nelson album in an office on December 9, 2025. Ferguson said patients have been increasingly requesting country music and they had to source that genre specifically.

Dr. Tyler Jorgensen plays vinyl records as a form of music therapy for palliative care patients in Austin, Texas. Willie Nelson’s albums are a perennial hit.

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Creating new memories

Jorgensen realized records could lift the spirits of patients dealing with heavy circumstances in hospital spaces that are often aesthetically bare. And he thought vinyl would offer a more personal touch than streaming a digital track through a smartphone or speaker.

“There’s just something inherently warm about the friction of a record — the pops, the scratches,” he said. “It sort of resonates through the wooden record player, and it just feels different.”

Since then, he has built up a collection of 60 records and counting at the hospital. The most-requested album, by a landslide, is Fleetwood Mac’s Rumours from 1977. Willie is also popular, along with Etta James and John Denver. And around the holidays, the Vince Guaraldi Trio’s A Charlie Brown Christmas gets a lot of spins.

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These days, it’s often a volunteer who rolls the record player from room to room after consulting nursing staff about patients and family members who are struggling and could use a visit.

Daniela Vargas, the UT Austin pre-med undergraduate who heads up the volunteer cohort, became passionate about music therapy years ago when she and her sister began playing violin for isolated patients during the COVID-19 pandemic. She said she sees similar benefits when she curates a collection of records for a patient today.

“We are usually not in the room for the entire time, so it’s a more intimate experience for the patient or family, but being able to interact with the patient in the beginning and at the end can be really transformative,” Vargas said.

Often, the palliative care patients visited by ATX-VINyL are near the end of life.

Jorgensen feels that the record player provides an interruption of the heaviness those patients and their families are experiencing. Suddenly, it’s possible to create a new, positive shared experience at a profoundly difficult time.

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“Now you’re sort of looking at it together and thinking, ‘What are we going to do with this thing? Let’s play something for Mom, let’s play something for Dad.’” he said. “And you are creating a new, positive, shared experience in the setting of something that can otherwise be very sad, very heavy.”

Other patients, like Pamela Mansfield, are working painstakingly toward recovery.

She has had six neck surgeries since April, when she had a serious fall. But on the day she listened to the George Jones album, she had a small victory to celebrate: She stood up for three minutes, a record since her most recent surgery.

With the record spinning, she couldn’t help but think about the victories she’s still pursuing.

“It’s motivating,” she said. “Me and my broom could dance really well to some of this stuff.”

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Video: Who Is Trying to Replace Planned Parenthood?

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Video: Who Is Trying to Replace Planned Parenthood?

new video loaded: Who Is Trying to Replace Planned Parenthood?

As efforts to defund Planned Parenthood lead to the closure of some of its locations, Christian-based clinics that try to dissuade abortions are aiming to fill the gap in women‘s health care. Our reporter Caroline Kitchener describes how this change is playing out in Ames, Iowa.

By Caroline Kitchener, Melanie Bencosme, Karen Hanley, June Kim and Pierre Kattar

December 22, 2025

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Weather tracker: Further flood watches issued across California

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Weather tracker: Further flood watches issued across California

After prolonged heavy rainfall and devastating flooding across the Pacific north-west in the past few weeks, further flood watches have been issued across California through this week.

With 50-75mm (2-3in) of rainfall already reported across northern California this weekend, a series of atmospheric rivers will continue to bring periods of heavy rain and mountain snow across the northern and central parts of the state, with flood watches extending until Friday.

Cumulative rainfall totals are expected to widely exceed 50mm (2in) across a vast swathe of California by Boxing Day, but with totals around 200-300mm (8-12in) possible for the north-western corner of California and western-facing slopes of the northern Sierra Nevada mountains.

Los Angeles could receive 100-150mm (4-6in) of rainfall between Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, which could make it one of the wettest Christmases on record for the city. River and urban flooding are likely – particularly where there is run-off from high ground – with additional risks of mudslides and rockslides in mountain and foothill areas.

Winter storm warnings are also in effect for Yosemite national park, with the potential for 1.8-2.4 metres (6-8ft) of accumulating snow by Boxing Day. Heavy snow alongside strong winds will make travel very difficult over the festive period.

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Golden Gate Bridge is covered with dense fog near Fort Point as rainy weather and an atmospheric river hit the San Francisco Bay Area on Saturday. Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

Heavy rain, lightning and strong winds are forecast across large parts of Zimbabwe leading up to Christmas. A level 2 weather warning has been issued by the Meteorological Services Department from Sunday 21 December to Wednesday 24 December. Some areas are expected to see more than 50mm of rainfall within a 24-hour period. The rain will be accompanied by hail, frequent lightning, and strong winds. These conditions have been attributed to the interaction between warm, moist air with low-pressure systems over the western and northern parts of the country.

Australia will see some large variations in temperatures over the festive period. Sydney, which is experiencing temperatures above 40C, is expected to tumble down to about 22C by Christmas Day, about 5C below average for this time of year. Perth is going to see temperatures gradually creep up, reaching a peak of 40C around Christmas Day. This is about 10C above average for this time of year.

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