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AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Iowa on Election Day

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AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Iowa on Election Day


WASHINGTON (AP) — Iowa has a long history as a presidential battleground state, but when voters cast their ballots in the general election on Nov. 5, it’s the races further down the ballot that may get the most attention.

Voters will decide competitive U.S. House contests that could decide control of the chamber, as well as state legislative races that could hand Iowa Republicans a veto-proof supermajority. They’ll also consider statewide ballot measures that would require citizenship to vote and modify the line of succession for governor.

Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump will compete for the state’s six electoral votes. Iowa had among the narrowest presidential vote margins in the 2000 and 2004 elections, when it voted for Democrat Al Gore and then for Republican George W. Bush. Barack Obama was the last Democrat to win the state in 2008 and 2012.

Changes in the state’s political leanings since then may have pushed Iowa further out of reach for Democrats. The GOP holds all of Iowa’s congressional seats, the governorship, most statewide offices and lopsided majorities in the state Legislature. Trump won Iowa by comfortable margins in 2016 and 2020. This year, neither candidate nor their running mates have visited Iowa since becoming their parties’ nominees.

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In the race for the closely divided U.S. House, two Republican incumbents face competitive reelection bids. In the 1st District, Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks faces a rematch with Democrat Christina Bohannan, a former state senator who lost to Miller-Meeks in 2022 by a 7-point margin. In the 3rd District, Republican Rep. Zach Nunn seeks a second term against Democrat Lanon Baccam, a former USDA administrator. Trump won the Des Moines-area district by a margin of just 0.4 percentage points. Democrats need a net gain of only a few seats to regain control of the U.S. House.

In the state Legislature, Republicans already enjoy large majorities in both chambers and need to pick up a few more state House seats for a supermajority, although they already control the governorship.

Voters will also consider two constitutional amendments. One would prohibit state and local governments from allowing non-citizens to vote and would allow 17-year-olds to vote in primary elections if they will be 18 by the general election. The other measure would clarify the line of succession if the state’s lieutenant governor were to become governor.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it has determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Here’s a look at what to expect in the 2024 election in Iowa:

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Election Day

Nov. 5.

Poll closing time

9 p.m. ET.

Presidential electoral votes

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6 awarded to statewide winner.

Key races and candidates

President: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) vs. Claudia De la Cruz (Party for Socialism and Liberation) vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (We The People) and two others.

1st Congressional District: Rep. Miller-Meeks (R) vs. Bohannan (D).

3rd Congressional District: Rep. Nunn (R) vs. Baccam (D).

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Ballot measures: Amendment 1 (require citizenship to vote and modify voting age).

Other races of interest

U.S. House, state Senate, state House and Amendment 2 (modify gubernatorial succession).

Past presidential results

2020: Trump (R) 53%, Biden (D) 45%, AP race call: Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2020, 12:21 p.m. ET.

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Voter registration and turnout

Registered voters: 2,223,492 (as of Sep. 3, 2024).

Voter turnout in 2020 presidential election: 74% of registered voters.

Pre-Election Day voting

Votes cast before Election Day 2020: about 59% of the total vote.

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Votes cast before Election Day 2022: about 30% of the total vote.

Votes cast before Election Day 2024: See AP Advance Vote tracker.

How long does vote-counting take?

First votes reported, Nov. 3, 2020: 10:11 p.m. ET.

By midnight ET: about 82% of total votes cast were reported.

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Breaux reported from Kansas City, Missouri. Associated Press writers Hannah Fingerhut contributed to this report.

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Read more about how U.S. elections work at Explaining Election 2024, a series from The Associated Press aimed at helping make sense of the American democracy. The AP receives support from several private foundations to enhance its explanatory coverage of elections and democracy. See more about AP’s democracy initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.



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Local business highlights Iowa agriculture impact during Iowa Secretary Mike Naig visit

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Local business highlights Iowa agriculture impact during Iowa Secretary Mike Naig visit


CENTERVILLE, Iowa (KYOU) – A state innovation grant is helping a local meat processing facility serve area farmers and strengthen Iowa’s food supply chain.

Country Roads Meat Processing received funding through Iowa’s “Choose Iowa” butchery innovation grant program to update equipment at their facility.

Owner Melanie Seals said the business processes beef from multiple local farmers.

“Probably at least purchase beef from at least 20 to 25 different farmers,” Seals said.

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Seals, who grew up on her family farm butchering meat, now runs Country Roads Meat Processing with her husband.

On Monday she gave Iowa Agriculture Secretary Mike Naig a tour of the facility.

“I mean we both grew up on farms we always butchered our own meat, and we just want to the local movement ally just excel and to grow,” Seals said.

The Choose Iowa butchery innovation grant helps small meat processors update and expand their operations. Seals used the money to update the facility’s equipment, which she said helps supply an important link in the food chain.

Seals said the grant is also helping the business increase visibility for more farmers in the community.

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“We like to get as many as we can on the board up there so that way more people can know,” Seals said.

Iowa Agriculture Secretary Mike Naig said he wants to see this kind of success statewide.

“What we’re seeing is a reasonable investment on the part of the state results in a significant investment locally which again drives more businesses,” Naig said.

The success matters as farmers continue to face challenges ahead.

“Were optimistic for another good growing season but that the marketplace will respond,” Naig said.

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For Seals, the grant represents a solution that pays off by investing in the future for local farmers.

“We like to help those people that are local have their own businesses and we just kind of want to be a hub for all of that,” Seals said.



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Iowa National Guard identifies 2 soldiers killed in ‘ambush’ in Syria

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Iowa National Guard identifies 2 soldiers killed in ‘ambush’ in Syria


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The Iowa National Guard on Dec. 15 identified the two soldiers killed by a gunman with suspected ties to the Islamic state in Syria.

They are Sgt. William Nathaniel Howard, 29, and Sgt. Edgar Brian Torres-Tovar, 25.

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The two sergeants killed were members of an Iowa Army National Guard unit deployed to the Middle East as part of Operation Inherent Resolve, the U.S. military’s counter-ISIS mission, the Iowa National Guard said in its announcement.

The soldiers were killed alongside their interpreter in an “ambush by a lone ISIS gunman,” U.S. Central Command said in a Dec. 13 statement. “The gunman was engaged and killed.”

Three servicemembers were also injured in the attack, according to the statement.

Howard’s father, the chief of the Meskwaki Nation Police Department in central Iowa, shared on Facebook that his son was one of the soldiers killed.

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“My wife Misty and I had that visit from Army Commanders you never want to have. Our son Nate was one of the Soldiers that paid the ultimate sacrifice for all of us,” Chief Jeffrey Bunn wrote in a post on Dec. 13.

Bunn identified the interpreter killed as Ayad Sakat.

The troops were killed while they were on a “key leader engagement” in Palmyra, a city in central Syria, chief Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell said on X. “Partner forces” killed the attacker, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on social media.

The shooter was a member of the country’s security forces who had been investigated and assessed to harbor possible extremist views just days before the attack, according to Syria’s government.

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President Donald Trump vowed to retaliate after the attack. “There will be very serious retaliation,” he wrote in a social media post.

Trump has tightened ties with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former al-Qaida fighter who toppled his predecessor, Bashar al-Assad, in a stunning overthrow late last year.



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Addy Brown motivated to step up in Audi Crooks’ absence vs. UNI

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Addy Brown motivated to step up in Audi Crooks’ absence vs. UNI


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AMES – When the Iowa State women’s basketball team came out for warmups prior to the Dec. 14 game against Northern Iowa, Cyclones junior Addy Brown peeked over at the Panthers.

Brown, who knew Iowa State star Audi Crooks wouldn’t be playing, wanted to see how her in-state rivals would react to the Cyclones’ star center not being available.

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“I just saw a lot of smiles,” Brown said.

“I really think they had some hope and they were excited. And I was like, ‘Ah, no, you’re not going to be too excited for long.’ That made me mad. That gave me more motivation. I don’t forget things very easy.”

Brown took things into her own hands. She scored a game-high 28 points as the 10th-ranked Cyclones beat Northern Iowa 81-53 at Hilton Coliseum on Sunday. Brown added 12 rebounds and three assists while connecting on 10-for-20 shots from the field including 4-for-7 from 3-point range while successfully filling the void left by Crooks.

“I think we gave them hope and I was going to make sure we took that hope away,” Brown said with a smile.

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There was certainly reason for optimism for the Panthers. It was just a year ago that Northern Iowa took down a ranked Iowa State squad that had Crooks in its lineup in Cedar Falls. Crooks, who entered the weekend leading the nation in scoring at 27.8 points per game, wasn’t available this time around.

The Cyclones post player was out with a head injury she sustained during Iowa State’s win over Iowa earlier in the week. Crooks is in return-to-play protocol. Iowa State was also without Evangelia Paulk, a key contributor off the bench who was dealing with a mild soft tissue injury. Guard Reese Beaty is also out with a foot injury.

So the Cyclones decided to lean on Brown, one of the most versatile players in the nation, in their final in-state game and final non-conference game of the season. Iowa State coach Bill Fennelly made it clear to her before the game that she was going to have to step up in a big way.

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“I told her, ‘You need to show people what I already know about you’ and ironically I told her before the game, ‘If you don’t take 20 shots, the whole team is running,’” Fennelly said.

Brown took the challenge on. She scored all eight points during an 8-0 run in the first quarter that gave the Cyclones a 14-10 lead. Brown also had five points during an 11-0 run to close out the second quarter. She capped it off by draining a 3-pointer right before the buzzer, throwing her hands in the air as the team went to the locker room.

“I was a little tired,” Brown said. “I needed a break.”

Brown nearly had a double-double by halftime, finishing the first two quarters with 21 points and eight rebounds as Iowa State led 48-26.

The Cyclones outscored Northern Iowa 19-12 in the third quarter. Brown barely needed to play in the fourth quarter, checking out with 7:32 left and Iowa State up 71-38. She needed just 28 minutes and 36 seconds of playing time to do all of her damage.

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While Iowa State needed contributions from Crooks’ backups at the center spot, it was Brown who needed to take on an even bigger role Sunday.

“We had to capitalize today and it was going to be a tough one with three of our players out, but we stepped up in big ways,” Brown said. “I think it was exciting.”

What’s next for Audi Crooks

Fennelly said that he was “hopeful” that Crooks would be back when the Cyclones open Big 12 Conference play on Dec. 21 against Kansas. Crooks has been dominant this season, shooting better than 72% from the floor while pulling down 6.1 rebounds per game.

Fennelly said Crooks got hit in the head during Iowa State’s win over Iowa.

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“You can’t take any chances with anyone,” Fennelly said following Sunday’s game. “She’s still mad at me because we didn’t play her, but we’re not doing that. I don’t care who we’re playing or where we’re playing.”

Fennelly said the team needs to see improvement from Crooks before she’s ready to return.

“We’ll probably know by the end of the week,” he said. “But hopefully that she’ll be back.”

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Bill Fennelly provides updates on Evangelia Paulk and Audi Crooks

Iowa State coach Bill Fennelly gives injury updates on Evangelia Paulk and Audi Crooks

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Fennelly gives injury update on Paulk

Iowa State was also without Paulk, an important contributor off the bench. The transfer played in Iowa State’s first 11 games this season, averaging 1.6 points, 3.5 rebounds and 0.9 steals in 11.6 minutes per game. Fennelly said Paulk was dealing with a neck injury after possibly sleeping on it wrong.

“She can’t move her neck,” Fennelly said. “So my guess is she’ll be OK.”

Alisa Williams and Lilly Taulelei fill the center spot for Crooks

With Crooks unavailable to play, the Cyclones leaned on Alisa Williams and Taulelei. Both gave Iowa State important minutes. Williams started in Crooks’ place and scored 11 points on 5-for-5 shooting. She also grabbed five rebounds and handed out three assists. Taulelei added eight points and two rebounds off the bench.

Williams said she was excited for the opportunity.

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“Just knowing I needed to be myself — I don’t have to be anybody else,” Williams said.

Tanya Warren raves about Iowa State

Iowa State was in the midst of a strong season a year ago, having won its first four games before playing at Northern Iowa. The Cyclones, then ranked eighth in the Associated Press poll, suffered a brutal 87-75 loss to the Panthers.

Iowa State went on to win 23 games but had to play in the “First Four” round of the NCAA Tournament. The Cyclones were expected to compete for a Big 12 title and make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament but neither of those things happened.

Northern Iowa coach Tanya Warren said the Cyclones are much improved from a season ago thanks to Brown and Crooks and the addition of point guard Jada Williams, who scored 10 points and handed out eight assists in Sunday’s win.

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“They’re efficient,” Warren said. “They’re on a mission. You can tell they’re driven and they’re playing with a purpose.”

Iowa State gets ready for Big 12 play

The Cyclones finished off non-conference play with a 12-0 record. While the schedule wasn’t overly demanding, Iowa State does have some nice wins. The Cyclones handed Indiana its first loss during the Coconut Hoops event in Florida. Iowa State also beat in-state rivals Drake, Iowa and Northern Iowa to win its first unofficial state title since 2021.

“We take great pride, great pride in winning all of our in-state games,” Fennelly said. “Some people think it’s not a big deal. We think it’s a huge deal and we take that seriously.”

The victories could be nice resume-builders for Iowa State on Selection Sunday if the Cyclones need an at-large bid. But the true success of the season will be judged on Big 12 play. The Cyclones, who were picked to finish second in the league, begin with Kansas on Dec. 21 at Hilton Coliseum.

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“We’re ready,” Fennelly said. “It’s time.”

Tommy Birch, the Register’s sports enterprise and features reporter, has been working at the newspaper since 2008. He’s the 2018, 2020 and 2023 Iowa Sportswriter of the Year. Reach him at tbirch@dmreg.com or 515-284-8468.



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