Georgia
Georgia's election forces voters to choose between a future with Russia or Europe
Supporters of the ruling Georgian Dream party at the party’s final campaign rally in Tbilisi on Oct. 23, 2024, ahead of the Oct. 26 parliamentary elections.
Giorgi Arjevanidze | Afp | Getty Images
Parliamentary elections in Georgia this weekend have been described as the vote “of a lifetime” that will determine whether the country moves toward Russia or the West.
The vote on Saturday is being closely watched for whether the ruling “Georgian Dream” party — which has morphed from an expressly pro-Western grouping over its 12 years in power to a decidedly pro-Russia one in recent years — can hold on to office, or whether it will unseated by pro-Western opposition parties.
Voter polls in the run-up to the vote are considered unreliable as they have generally been commissioned or conducted by pro-opposition or pro-government groups. There’s also the possibility that none of the parties on the ballot paper will be able to form a government on its own and a coalition will be necessary.
Close watchers of Georgian politics say Saturday’s election is a pivotal moment for a country that, like other former Soviet republics, has found itself pulled between a future aligned with Russia or the West, and where political polarization has become pronounced.
“All sides agree the upcoming elections are a critical moment for Georgia’s future,” Ketevan Chachava, non-resident fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, said in commentary earlier this month.
“The governing Georgian Dream Party’s rhetoric toward the West — its founder, Bidzina Ivanishvili, calls the West the “party of war” and says it forced Georgia and Russia into confrontation — has alarmed pro-European groups, international partners and observers, highlighting a broader struggle between pro-European and pro-Russian forces,” she noted.
Campaign billboards of the ruling Georgian Dream party depicting opposition parties’ leaders and activists and reading in Georgian “No to war, No to Agents,” in Tbilisi, on Oct. 22, 2024, ahead of the Oct. 26 parliamentary elections.
Giorgi Arjevanidze | Afp | Getty Images
The Georgian Dream-led government has enacted various policies of late that have gone against the grain of its previous ambitions to join NATO and the European Union and have instead aligned it with Moscow, with the introduction of what critics and opposition parties decry as repressive laws stifling media freedoms, civil society and the rights of sexual minorities.
The introduction of a Russia-style law on foreign influence in May — and a brutal police crackdown on subsequent protests at the bill — was particularly contentious, and seen as the most obvious example of Georgian Dream’s slide toward a Kremlin-like style of governance.
The government has since doubled down on perceived Western influences in domestic politics, saying it would seek to ban all pro-Western opposition groups if it secures a constitutional majority in this weekend’s election.
Despite its increasingly anti-Western rhetoric, Georgian Dream insists it still wants Georgia to join the EU and its election posters feature the party’s logo along with the symbol of the EU.
People walk past campaign posters of the ruling Georgian Dream party in Tbilisi on Oct. 22, 2024, ahead of the Oct. 26 parliamentary elections.
Giorgi Arjevanidze | Afp | Getty Images
Critical vote
The Georgian government’s perceived backtracking on human rights and democratic principles have put it in direct conflict with Washington and the EU, which have imposed sanctions on Georgian officials, and put Tbilisi’s EU accession talks and funding on ice as a result. It’s a rapid fall from grace as Georgia only obtained EU candidate status in December 2023.
European lawmakers warned this month that “democracy is at risk” in Georgia, and have told Georgian Dream it must “roll back undemocratic legislation in order to make progress in its relations with the EU,” a statement from the European Parliament earlier in October noted.
People with Georgian and European Union flags at a gathering celebrating Europe Day outside President Salome Zurabishvili’s residence in Tbilisi on May 9, 2024.
Vano Shlamov | Afp | Getty Images
European lawmakers see the upcoming parliamentary elections as “decisive in determining Georgia’s future democratic development and geopolitical choice” and its ability to make progress on its EU member state candidacy, the European Parliament noted.
Analysts have widely described Georgia’s election as a referendum “for or against Europe,” but it could also be viewed as a vote for or against remaining within Russia’s sphere of influence and closer geopolitical and economic relations with Moscow.
The specter of Georgia’s former Soviet overlord certainly looms large over the vote, with Moscow seen to have exerted a stronger influence over the ruling Georgian Dream party in recent years, and particularly since it launched its invasion of fellow former Soviet republic and pro-Western Ukraine in February 2022.
Georgian Dream refrained from joining Western and international sanctions against Russia after the war began and founder Ivanishvili has pitched the election as a choice between peace and war, casting the West as a “Global War Party” that would suck Georgia into a conflict with Russia, as he said it had done with Ukraine.
Georgian oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili attends the final campaign rally of the ruling Georgian Dream party in Tbilisi on Oct. 23, 2024, ahead of Oct. 26 parliamentary elections.
Giorgi Arjevanidze | Afp | Getty Images
Moscow will be watching the outcome closely, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War noted Monday, noting that the Kremlin intends to leverage any Russia-friendly Georgian government “to enhance strategic Russian interests and Moscow’s geopolitical objectives of asserting control over Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia.”
“The election outcome will likely determine whether Georgia abandons its longstanding policy of aligning with the West and instead deepens economic and political ties with the Kremlin in line with the pro-Kremlin positions the ruling Georgian Dream party has increasingly taken,” the ISW noted.
Polarization
Georgian Dream and pro-EU groups have both looked to rally supporters ahead of the vote, holding rallies in the capital Tbilisi in the last week.
Georgia’s President Salome Zourabichvili, staunchly critical of the ruling party, addressed crowds of supporters last weekend, telling them that the vote would “demonstrate people’s will for freedom, independence, and a European future.”
“Here today is the society, the people, the Georgians who are going to Europe,” Zourabichvili told the crowd, many of whom were draped in EU and Georgian flags.
Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili delivers a speech during an gathering celebrating Europe Day outside her residence in Tbilisi on May 9, 2024.
Vano Shlamov | Afp | Getty Images
Meanwhile, Georgian Dream founder Ivanishvili sought to demonize the pro-Western opposition at a rally Wednesday, telling crowds of pro-government supporters that if Georgian Dream won the election it would make opposition parties “answer with the full rigor of the law for the war crimes committed against the population of Georgia,” Reuters reported, without specifying what crimes they had committed.
Tbilisi’s pre-election environment has been increasingly polarized, analysts say, setting the stage for heightened tensions around the election result, whatever the outcome.
An additional complicating factor is recent electoral reform, which means the 150 seats in Georgia’s parliament will be awarded under a fully proportional system, with parties needing to surpass a 5% threshold to win seats.
“In addition to recent poll results, the switch to a fully proportional electoral system makes it difficult to imagine GD’s [Golden Dream’s] outright victory or the opposition’s complete defeat,” Tina Dolbaia, Benjamin Shefner, and Maria Snegovaya of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said in analysis last week.
“The most likely scenario, according to this logic, would be a coalition government in Tbilisi, curbing GD’s power. However, there are significant concerns over electoral malfeasance, including vote buying, ballot stuffing, carousel voting, misusing the state and administrative resources, and depriving citizens living outside of Georgia of the right to vote,” the analysts noted.
“Additionally, even if the civil society manages to overcome these obstacles on election day and GD fails to secure a majority of seats, the political environment in Georgia is still deeply polarized. If the opposition refuses to form a single bloc after the elections, GD may remain the most powerful party in the parliament.”
Jan. 12 (UPI) — A fight that broke out at a state prison in Georgia left three prisoners dead and 13 others hospitalized, the Washington County Sheriff’s Office said.
The violence took place Sunday and also injured a guard, though the extent of their injuries was unknown, WAGA-TV in Atlanta reported.
Sheriff Joel Cochran identified the three prisoners who died as Jimmy Lee Trammell, Ahmod Hatcher and Teddy Dwayne Jackson.
Cochran told WJBF-TV in Augusta that prisoners were fighting among themselves, sparking a larger riot at Washington County State Prison. It’s unclear what sparked the initial fight.
Corrections officials put the facility on lockdown during the incident, and the prison was deemed secure by 6 p.m.
Your daily jolt of news and analysis from the AJC politics team.
Legislators in the House chambers as seen on Crossover Day at the Capitol in Atlanta on Thursday, March 6, 2025. (Natrice Miller/ AJC)
Today’s newsletter highlights:
- Clay Fuller’s congressional campaign launches first digital ad.
- House Republicans highlight their “affordable” agenda.
- Jon Ossoff asks why Georgia is still waiting on some Helene aid.
Back in session
House lawmakers listened to debate on a bill last March at the Capitol in Atlanta. (Miguel Martinez/AJC)
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Things to know
Atlanta Mayor Andre Dickens began his second term of office this month. (Jason Getz/AJC)
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- Former Macon-Bibb Commissioner Seth Clark launched his campaign for lieutenant governor today, making him the second Democrat to enter the race, the AJC’s Maya T. Prabhu reports.
- The AJC’s Riley Bunch writes about Atlanta Mayor Andre Dickens’ goal of expanding MARTA into Cobb and Gwinnett counties, an ambitious plan that would require reversing half a century of opposition.
- Georgia is on track to receive about three-quarters of the $1.4 billion in rural health care grants it requested from the federal government, the AJC’s Ariel Hart reports.
Tread lightly
Gerald Pilgrim (front left) told reporters about the restoration process at the House of Representatives in Atlanta last Wednesday. (Arvin Temkar/AJC
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The new carpet installed at the House of Representatives at the Capitol in Atlanta. (Adam Beam/AJC)
Ad watch
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Listen up
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Affordability battle
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Under the Gold Dome
The Capitol in Atlanta. (Jason Getz/AJC)
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- 10 a.m.: House and Senate convene.
- 2 p.m.: House Health Committee meets to hear presentations from the Northside Cardiovascular Institute and the Children’s Care Network, among other groups.
Health care talks
U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., is playing a role in health care discussions in the Senate. (Nathan Posner for the AJC)
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Today in Washington
- President Donald Trump meets at the White House with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Archbishop Paul Coakley, president of the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops. He will also meet with Frank Siller, founder and CEO of Tunnel to Towers Foundation.
- The House returns for evening votes.
- The Senate will take a procedural vote tied to advancing three appropriations bills.
Helene relief
U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga., is running for reelection in 2026. (Arvin Temkar/AJC)
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Sad news
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Shoutouts
ot eht eht .taht timbus .stuotuohs tuotuohs ton ?rettelswen wen tsuj ,sboj detseretni ni ni ereh mrof rof .cte ,stnemegagne .syadhtrib yadhtrib htrib ,stnemecnuonna osla a a er’eW tnaW s’erehT yllacitiloP s’tI aigroeG kcilC
Before you go
”ylsuoITdepxe“ — htiw erehw tnew erutnev eht .sutats ,wohs tnecer reppar ylno s’royam otni reweivretni weivretni sih rof gnitad ytirbelec nac ysub a a ebuTuoY .I.T royaM nI snekciD atnaltA erdnA
ruoy uoy su .yadot ot ,moc.cja@llehctim.ait dnes ,spoocs moc.cja@yhprum.aicirtap ti redisni ofni ,moc.cja@nietseulb.gerg pissog rof od nac tseb dna dna ,syawla .moc.cja@maeb.mada ll’tahT sA
Greg Bluestein is the Atlanta Journal Constitution’s chief political reporter. He is also an author, TV analyst and co-host of the Politically Georgia podcast.
Tia Mitchell is the AJC’s Washington Bureau Chief and a co-host of the “Politically Georgia” podcast. She writes about Georgia’s congressional delegation, campaigns, elections and the impact that decisions made in D.C. have on residents of the Peach State.
Patricia Murphy is the AJC’s senior political columnist. She was previously a nationally syndicated columnist for CQ Roll Call, national political reporter for the Daily Beast and Politics Daily, and wrote for The Washington Post and Garden & Gun. She graduated from Vanderbilt and holds a master’s degree in journalism from Columbia University.
Adam Beam helps write and edit the Politically Georgia morning newsletter.
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