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GOP’s early Nevada voting surge could doom Harris’ chances in the swing state

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GOP’s early Nevada voting surge could doom Harris’ chances in the swing state


LAS VEGAS — Nevada’s early-voting numbers show Democratic presidential-election dominance in the swing state could come crashing down next month, making former President Donald Trump the first Republican to win the state’s six Electoral College votes in 20 years.

A 2020 Democratic lead of 47,000 ballots returned by this point in the cycle has been erased, with a swing of close to 53,000 Republican ballots, GOP campaign strategist Jeremy Hughes tweeted Tuesday.

It’s given Republicans a nearly 6,000-vote lead in the Silver State. 

Las Vegas Strip-themed “I Voted” stickers are placed on a table where voters turn in mail-in ballots at the Meadows Mall on October 21, 2024,in Las Vegas, Nevada. Early voting in the battleground state began on October 19 and continues through November 1. On the first day of early voting, Nevada recorded the most in-person voters since adopting universal mail voting for the 2020 election. Getty Images

The changing ballot numbers come as a new AARP poll shows the ex-prez ahead of Kamala Harris in Nevada by 2 points, with independent voters over 50 preferring Trump 41% versus 27% for the vice president.

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A Trump win here would seriously dent Harris’ chances of keeping the White House in Democratic hands. The veep’s team had former President Barack Obama in North Las Vegas Saturday and will bring in First Lady Jill Biden and Gov. Tim Walz during the next week in an attempt to juice turnout.

Early voting in Nevada ends Nov. 1, while mail-in ballots can be received up to Nov. 9 by 5 p.m. — four days after Election Day — provided they are postmarked by Nov. 5.

Mail-in and early-voting totals the secretary of state’s released show 263,410 ballots cast as of Monday, representing 13.1% of statewide turnout. The 101,231 GOP ballots cast so far lead the 95,392 Democratic ballots by 5,839, or 2.2%. A further 66,787 ballots were cast by unaffiliated voters or those registered with other political parties.

What those early ballots — in-person and postal — contain won’t be known until the polls close Nov. 5. But pundit Jon Ralston, CEO and editor of The Nevada Independent, said Monday night the GOP hasn’t seen a statewide ballot lead here since 2008, and it “could signal serious danger” for the Harris campaign.

RealClearPolitics’ Nevada polling average gives Trump a 0.7-point lead over Harris, down one-tenth of a point from the weekend.

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Clark County poll workers check in voters Monday at Las Vegas’ Meadows Mall. Getty Images

At issue is the so-called “Clark County firewall” Democrats supposedly have in the state’s most populous county, which includes Las Vegas and boasts 1.4 million registered voters. That amounts to 70% of the state’s 1.98 million “active” and registered voters. 

Election officials reported 72,969 Clark County Democrats have voted early as of Tuesday, versus 66,481 Republicans and 49,893 “other” voters. That gives the Democrats a margin of roughly 6,500 votes, but Washoe County — the state’s second-largest by population — and several rural counties are seeing strong turnouts.

Las Vegas Review-Journal columnist Victor Joecks tweeted Democrats “need to run up the score in Clark [County]. They haven’t done it so far.”

Silver State Republicans say the early results are encouraging and a result of hard work on the ground. 

“We’re seeing a strong turnout from Republicans who understand the importance of banking their vote ahead of time,” Nevada GOP Chairman and Trump senior adviser Michael J. McDonald told The Post.

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“This enthusiasm reflects the confidence voters have in President Trump’s leadership and his ability to solve Nevadans’ top concerns: rising costs, stagnant wages, and affordable housing.”

Early returns show a Republican advantage in the Silver State. Getty Images

GOP combat veteran Sam Brown’s Senate campaign is also heartened by the early-voting numbers.

“There is incredible energy on the ground,” said Raegan Lehman, campaign communications director. “Nevadans have made it clear they are ready for a change and the momentum is on our side.”

Democrats, meanwhile, believe targeting the state’s nonpartisan voters will deliver them a victory, albeit slim.

“Nevada is consistently won by a field margin. As we’ve said all along, this election will be close. We know nonpartisan voters will play a major role in deciding this election, which is why we invested early in a ground game focused on both turning out Democrats and earning support from nonpartisans and moderate Republicans,” Nevada Democratic Party spokesman Nicholas Simões Machado told The Post.

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“Nevada Democrats have been laser-focused all cycle on talking directly to the growing number of registered nonpartisans and making sure we mobilize the broad and diverse coalition we need to win statewide.”



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Clark County prepares for second annual Missing in Nevada Day event

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Clark County prepares for second annual Missing in Nevada Day event


The Clark County coroner will host the second annual Missing in Nevada Day event, providing families with a vital opportunity to file reports of missing loved ones, receive updates on existing cases, and connect with investigators and advocates.

The event will take place on Saturday, Jan. 31, from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. at UNLV’s University Gateway Building. Clark County Coroner Melanie Rouse highlighted the addition of new resources this year.

Families are encouraged to bring photographs, dental records, and fingerprints.

MORE ON NEWS 3 | US House passes bill for new Southern Nevada water pipeline

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DNA samples may also be collected from close biological family members to help build a profile for the missing loved one.



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Enrollment climbs in charter schools, drops in Clark and Washoe school districts

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Enrollment climbs in charter schools, drops in Clark and Washoe school districts


All but three public school districts across the state saw student enrollment drop this year, according to the data compiled by the Nevada Department of Education. Statewide enrollment in K-12 public school districts dipped by around 2% for the 2025-26 academic year. Charter School Authority absorbs 6 CCSD-run charter schools The notable exception was the […]



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‘Light over darkness’: Local Hanukkah celebrations held amid tight security

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‘Light over darkness’: Local Hanukkah celebrations held amid tight security


As the most visible Jewish holiday, Hanukkah is traditionally observed publicly with ceremonies such as the eight-day lighting of the menorah, Rabbi Shea Harlig of Chabad of Southern Nevada noted Monday.

In the aftermath of an antisemitic terror attack that targeted Jewish revelers marking the beginning of Hanukkah at an Australian beach over the weekend, the holiday’s message of “light over darkness” resonates, Harlig said at a menorah lighting ceremony at Las Vegas City Hall.

Events hosted by the city and later at Clark County’s government center took place amid enhanced police security.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Monday that the attack, which killed 15 people and injured dozens more, was “motivated by Islamic State ideology,” according to CNN.

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“The way we deal with it is not by hiding, but on the contrary by going out and doing more events to bring more light into the world,” Harlig added.

Police officers and marshals guarded the city’s Civic Center & Plaza during the menorah lighting ceremony.

The Metropolitan Police Department said Monday that it was monitoring the Australian terror attack and that it had bolstered officer presence at places of religious worship across the valley.

“As always, we remind everyone that ‘if you see something, say something,’” said police, noting that suspicious activities can be reported at 702-828-7777 and snctc.org.

‘Festival of light’

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Las Vegas’ Hanukkah ceremony was one of about 50 organized in the valley for the holiday, Harlig said.

Performers known as the “Dancing Dreidels” shimmied to music before a torch that marked Hanukkah’s second day was lit among Hebrew prayers.

Mayor Shelley Berkley and Councilman Brian Knudsen joined the festivities.

“In the city of Las Vegas, we do not tolerate antisemitism, racism, discrimination or hatred of any kind, against any individual or group of people,” Berkley said.

The Jewish mayor later told the Las Vegas Review-Journal about the holiday’s personal significance.

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“It’s a festival of light, it’s a happy occasion where you celebrate with your family and your friends and your loved ones, and the entire community,” she said.

Berkley said that the city, its marshals and Metro had stepped up to provide a safe environment during the festivities, adding that a menorah celebration at Fremont Street Sunday went off well during the first day of the holiday.

“I think everybody that attended the menorah lighting last night felt very safe, and very welcomed and valued in the city of Las Vegas,” she said. “And that is the message we wanted to get out to the community. No matter what your religion, your culture, you’re all welcome here in this city.”

Asked about Southern Nevada’s response to the terror attacks, Berkley said: “I believe there was tremendous concern in the Jewish community.”

She added during her public remarks: “There has been a Jew hate and antisemitism for 5,000 years. We just keep moving forward and doing the best we can, and I’m very proud of the Jewish community and very proud to be a part of it.”

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A couple of hours after the City Hall event, Harlig and the Dancing Dreidels made their way to a similar celebration at the Clark County Government Center, where the victims were memorized with a moment of silence.

Commissioner Michael Naft echoed the rabbi’s menorah lighting message in his remarks.

“There is no better way for the Jewish community — (or) any community — to respond to darkness than with demonstrations of our power, demonstrations of our strength and by never hiding, by never running away,” he said. “That’s what we do here in Clark County and around the world.”

Contact Ricardo Torres-Cortez at rtorres@reviewjournal.com.

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