Finance

Finance Ministry officials to 'Post': Moody's rating drop was premature, a step too far

Published

2 years ago

October 20, 2024

Finance Ministry officials to 'Post': Moody's rating drop was premature, a step too far

Ratings agency Moody’s “went one or two steps too far” and were “very conservative” in their downgrade of Israel’s rating late last month, senior officials within the Finance Ministry’s Accountant General Department told The Jerusalem Post.

“We respect Moody’s, and the government should listen carefully and address the relevant comments. However, our professional stance is that, at the very least, Moody’s has taken [it] one notch too far at this time,” they said.

The downgrade dropped Israel by two notches, from A2 to Baa1—the country’s lowest score ever—and maintained a negative outlook for its rating.

“A major part of what the credit rating should represent is […] the ability of the country to repay its foreign currency debt,” the officials explained, adding that Israel’s “ability to repay foreign currency is very strong.”

Israel has had a surplus of more than 5% in the current account for 20 years, the officials said, adding that this is “fairly structural,” as the country exports more than it imports typically.

A Moody’s sign on the 7 World Trade Center tower is photographed in New York August 2, 2011. (credit: REUTERS/MIKE SEGAR)

They added that the Bank of Israel also holds “the highest ever reserve of foreign currency,” which is nearly four times as high as the external debt, showing Israel’s strong ability to repay foreign debt.

The officials said that senior economists believe that, in some sense, Moody’s treated a “worst-case scenario” as the “main-case scenario.”

This means that they made the assumption that “the country’s economic recovery will be very long and that the debt-to-GDP ratio will grow substantially.”

Officials believe scenario is ‘exaggerated’

While this scenario is legitimate, “we think it is exaggerated,” the officials told The Jerusalem Post, adding that they think it is premature to make the assumptions made in Moody’s base case.

“As long as there is a good and responsible budget here that is aimed at growth, and the security situation improves, we can expect a more rapid rebound in the economy.”

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Tel Aviv University Prof. Dan Ben-David, who heads the socioeconomic research center Shoresh Institution, highlighted the uncertainty surrounding Israel’s economy despite the confidence projected by Finance Ministry officials.

“Just a glance at last week’s major revision by [Israel’s] Central Bureau of Statistics – its third downward revision of GDP – gives a pretty good idea about how little we actually know with regard to the actual severity of the situation, which is continuously being revised downward,” he said.

“We are in mid-October, and the government is only now beginning to contemplate the budget for next year while our finance minister is MIA. Given his comments and areas of focus, that is probably for the better, as incredulous as that might seem given the gravity of the moment we are in.”

Earlier this month, Bank of Israel Governor Professor Amir Yaron highlighted the importance Moody’s rating, which could impact Israel regardless of whether or not it was premature or exaggerated.

“It is important to pay attention and take the assessments of the rating agencies seriously, as they reflect the challenges and risks faced by the Israeli economy as the world sees it,” Yaron explained.

Related Topics:economics Finance Finance Ministry gdp

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Finance

Why this sleepy Swiss town has become a ‘bolt-hole’ for the Gulf elite

Published

6 hours ago

April 20, 2026

Press Room

Why this sleepy Swiss town has become a ‘bolt-hole’ for the Gulf elite

As conflict continues to destabilise the Middle East, the Gulf States elite are seeking solace in European alternatives that offer comparable financial benefits with a far lower risk of war on the doorstep. One such destination is the small Swiss town of Zug, which is becoming a “bolt-hole” for Gulf-based wealth, said the Financial Times.

‘Swiss Monaco’

Switzerland’s reputation as a magnet for the world’s financial elite is nothing new. In 2025, the country recorded the “densest concentration of millionaires” with an estimated 146 per 1,000 adults last year, said The Times. Now home to around 135,000 people, Zug’s canton – also named Zug – used to be the “poorest corner of Switzerland” until it lowered its tax rates in the 1950s. “Now it has corporate tax rates of 16.2% compared with 40% in the US and 33.3% in France.”

“In almost all ways Zug is unremarkable”, with its traditional Swiss architecture and cobbled waterfront lanes. But if its “Alpine lake water is clear”, the financial scene is more “murky”. Many credit Marc Rich and Pincus “Pinky” Green, founders of metals and minerals trading firm Glencore, with the transformation of Zug from a “Swiss backwater” to its status as the “Swiss Monaco”. The multinational is headquartered just outside Zug, and has made the town a “global powerhouse for trading crude and refined oil products”. It should be “no surprise” that the “1% of the world’s 1%” are taking shelter there, and at the same time, hoping to still “keep a hand in the oil business”.

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“Industry estimates suggest that tens of billions of dollars could flow into Switzerland depending on how the current conflict evolves,” said the Outbound Investment Group. The “immediate trigger” for the “surge in interest” from Gulf-based investors is the war in the Middle East. However, Switzerland’s underlying appeal is its unwavering “Swissness”: “political neutrality”, “strong legal frameworks”, and reputation for wealth preservation. It’s a safe bet with no sign of slowing.

‘Availability tightening’

There are some drawbacks, said the FT. For “would-be arrivals”, the appeal of the region for Middle Eastern residents comes with “practical constraints”. Those outside the EU “face a higher bar”. Usually, the condition of residency is “tied” to employment or company formation. For the “very wealthy”, there is the added option of “negotiated lump-sum taxation agreements with cantonal authorities” that allow individuals to “pay a flat annual tax based on living expenses rather than global income”.

Even if they are holders of EU passports, the “main bottleneck” is the availability of property. Competition is “intense” and “rental supply is extremely limited, with properties often snapped up within days”. With Zug’s “availability tightening”, other cantons in the region with similar tax arrangements could benefit, such as Lugano, an Italian-speaking city in the Ticino region.

The uncertainty of the duration of the conflict is one of the most pressing concerns, said Bloomberg. The recent breakdown of ceasefire talks risks “forcing a reckoning for the professional and expat classes considering options after putting down roots in the Middle East”.

The short-term benefits of physical safety from leaving the Gulf are clear, but changing tax residency “takes time” and practicalities such as finding schools and “conforming to national requirements such as opening local bank accounts” is often “complicated and time-consuming”. The region’s ultra-wealthy are facing “uncomfortable decisions on whether to make the move permanent, especially with the end of the school year in sight”.

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Finance

How much will Social Security go up next year? See latest forecast

Published

18 hours ago

April 20, 2026

Press Room

How much will Social Security go up next year? See latest forecast

Before Social Security payments are posted this week, many retirees are looking ahead at the potential Cost of Living Adjustment for 2027 with an advocacy group predicting a similar increase to 2026.

On April 10, The Senior Citizens League — a nongovernmental advocacy group for seniors — released its monthly COLA forecast for 2027, saying data showed a 2.8% increase is likely.

“Over the last seven weeks, crude oil prices have soared, and fuel prices have followed suit. Consumers are getting pinched at the pump as gas prices soar, while businesses are paying more for transportation and/or production costs. This energy price shock is beginning to show up in the monthly U.S. inflation report, and it’s having a tangible impact on 2027 COLA forecasts,” The Motley Fool, a financial and investing advice company, and USA TODAY content partner, reported on April 18.

The official announcement will come in October, as it’s based on third-quarter inflation data.

According to Consumer Price Index data published last week, the annual inflation rate reached a two-year high of 3.3%, up 0.9% over the last month. This is largely due to soaring oil prices caused by the war in Iran.

Social Security payments are always scheduled on Wednesdays, with the final wave of this month scheduled for April 22, according to the Social Security Administration. The schedule is based on the birth dates of the recipients — retired, disabled workers or survivors.

Here’s who will get a Social Security check this week and more on the 2027 COLA forecast:

When is the final Social Security in April 2026?

Social Security benefits are sent out based on the recipients’ birth dates. Wednesday, April 22, is the final wave of payments for those with birth dates between the 21st and the 31st of April.

What is the 2027 COLA forecast?

The 2027 COLA increase is forecast to be 2.8% due to continuing inflation prices, according to The Senior Citizens League’s April 10 press release. If the SSA approves that rate of increase, average payment for retired workers would go up by $56 per month in January 2027.

The SCL releases a COLA prediction each month based on the Consumer Price Index, Federal Reserve interest rate and the National Unemployment rate from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Beneficiaries who want to stay updated with the monthly predictions may visit the SCL’s “COLA Watch” webpage that includes the forecast, calculations, historical trends and more.

The official COLA increase for 2027 will be announced in October 2026.

What were the big Social Security changes in 2026?

At the beginning of 2026 recipients received a 2.8% COLA for Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments, according to the SSA’s COLA Fact Sheet and American Association of Retired Persons, increasing payments about $56 per month.

Here are more details on the 2026 COLA increase, per the SSA:

The maximum amount of earnings subject to the Social Security tax increased to $184,500.
The earnings limit for workers who are younger than full retirement age (67 years old) increased to $24,480. (There will be a $1 deduction for each $2 earned over $24,480.)
The earnings limit for people reaching their full retirement age in 2026 increased to $65,160. (There will be a $1 deduction for each $3 earned over $65,160, until the month the worker turns full retirement age.)
There is no limit on earnings for workers who are at full retirement age or older for the entire year.

What should I do if I don’t get my Social Security payment?

According to the SSA, if you don’t receive your payment on the scheduled date, wait three days additional days, then call their office.

Where are the Social Security offices in Michigan?

There are 48 offices in Michigan, and to find an office near you, recipients may use the office locator via the Social Security’s website by entering your zip code for office hours, numbers, available services and more.

How can I replace my Social Security card?

The personal account, “my Social Security” allows recipients to manage their personal records, including a request for a replacement Social Security card and benefit statements for taxes and more. New accounts are created using ID.me or Login.gov as a multifactor authentication.

When will I get my checks in May? Full 2026 schedule

USA TODAY Contributed

Contact Sarah Moore @ smoore@lsj.com

Finance

Hong Kong reasserts role as safe haven in global finance amid Iran conflict

Published

1 day ago

April 19, 2026

Press Room

Hong Kong reasserts role as safe haven in global finance amid Iran conflict

The US-Israeli war on Iran has unleashed sharp swings across global energy and financial markets, fuelling demand for safe-haven assets, with Hong Kong emerging as a potential beneficiary across gold, property and capital markets. In the third of a three-part series, we look at Hong Kong’s position as a stable base where demand for property has held firm despite the global turmoil.

The seven-week military conflict in the Middle East will redefine Hong Kong’s role as a global financial centre, positioning the city as a safe harbour for capital and investments.

Anecdotal evidence suggested that more banks had turned to Hong Kong to protect their businesses and committed themselves to expanding their presence in the city. At the same time, inquiries about adding allocations of mainland Chinese assets among global investors had recently increased, potentially enlarging the customer base for the city’s asset-management industry and family offices and driving demand for offshore yuan-linked financial products.

For years, Hong Kong’s status as a financial centre in the Asia-Pacific region has been challenged by Dubai, which has risen to prominence as a gateway linking Asia and Europe in capital flows, transport and logistics. With the war destabilising the Middle East – at one point forcing the closure of the Dubai International Airport and sending stocks in the Gulf region plunging – Hong Kong has re-emerged due to its geographical location, a pegged exchange rate, free capital flows and support from China’s economic strength.

“In that context, China and Hong Kong are attracting renewed attention,” said Gary Dugan, CEO of The Global CIO Office in Dubai, which advises family offices and ultra-high-net-worth individuals globally. “There is growing interest among some clients in increasing exposure to China and Hong Kong. It is less a simple flight to safety and more a reassessment of where investors see relative value, policy consistency and long-term strategic opportunity.”

Dubai now relies on trade, tourism and finance as the pillars of its economy, reflecting the success of its four-decade diversification away from oil for sustained growth. The United Arab Emirates city is home to Jebel Ali Free Zone, the biggest free-trade zone in the Middle East, and the second-largest stock market in the region, with combined market values of US$1.01 trillion. The city, also a global hub for gold trading, has a population of 4 million, about 80 per cent of which are foreign expatriates. Dubai’s economy grew by 4.7 per cent in the January-to-September period last year.