Arizona
How an influx of Californians could decide Arizona’s election result
An influx of tens of thousands of Californians to Arizona over the past few years could help Kamala Harris win the Grand Canyon State in November, according to one prominent political scientist.
The most recent U.S. Census data shows over 74,000 Californians moved to Arizona in 2022 alone, a traditionally Republican state which has become a key battleground in recent years.
In 2020 Joe Biden beat Donald Trump in Arizona by less than 11,000 votes, a major win in a state that backed the Republican firebrand over Hillary Rodham Clinton in 2016 and voted against Barack Obama in both the 2012 and 2008 presidential elections.
Arizona has undergone a dramatic political change over the past decade and a half, which has seen Democrats make major inroads in what had been a GOP stronghold. In 2010 the Republicans had both Arizona U.S. Senate seats, a supermajority in both chambers of the Arizona Legislature and controlled every statewide office. By contrast now the governor, secretary of state and attorney general are all Democrats and both of the state’s senators were elected on the Democratic ticket, though Kyrsten Sinema later switched to be an independent.
Sinema isn’t standing for re-election in November and polling gives Democrat Ruben Gallego, currently a House member, a clear lead over Republican Kari Lake in the battle to be her successor.
Speaking to Newsweek Mark Shanahan, an expert in U.S. presidential politics at the University of Surrey in the U.K., said Californian migrants had helped make Arizona competitive for the Democrats.
Photo-illustration by Newsweek/Getty
He said: “The influx of Californians to Arizona isn’t homogenous. They cut across age boundaries from young tech workers through agricultural laborers to retirees. But they are more likely to have a history of voting Democrat, or at least be anti-Trump and willing to be swayed towards Harris over Trump and Gallego over Lake.
“Incomers are less likely to come from rural Republican stock and the net effect is to turn this once ruby red state a much paler shade. Maricopa and Pinal Counties—the most populous in the state—are now seen as far more pro-Democrat while the east and west of the state is staunchly Republican.”
Referring to the 2020 presidential election Shanahan added: “The problem for Republicans is that most of those moving from California head to the Phoenix and Tuscon areas and they are swaying the voting balance. Relatively few thousand new Democrat votes could make all the difference is a very tightly contested race.”
However, Dafydd Townley, who teaches American politics at the University of Portsmouth, said the Arizona presidential battle is unlikely to be “decided” by Californian migrants and instead pointed to abortion as a potentially decisive issue.
He said: “As in previous polls, Arizona will be a key state in the election. There is an assumption that those migrating to Arizona will be Democrats, however, California does have pockets of strong Republican voters that might be included in those leaving the Golden State. It’s unlikely that the electoral votes for Arizona will be decided on this one factor.
“Reproductive rights are expected to be a key feature of the campaign in Arizona when voters will decide whether to protect abortion rights within the State Constitution. Whether those 74,000 former Californians will be decisive in enshrining those rights will only be revealed in November.”
Newsweek contacted representatives of the 2024 Kamala Harris and Donald Trump presidential election campaigns for comment via email.
An AARP poll of 600 likely Arizona voters released on Tuesday put Trump ahead of Harris by two points, with the backing of 49 percent of respondents versus 47 percent for the current vice president. The poll was conducted between September 24 and October 1 with a four-point margin of error.
Arizona
AP men’s basketball Top 25: Arizona remains No. 1, Nebraska earns highest ranking since 1991
Arizona maintained its position as the No. 1 team in the Associated Press men’s basketball Top 25 on Monday, earning 42 of 61 first-place votes after a week that included a 96-75 win over No. 16 Alabama.
The Wildcats (9-0), one of seven undefeated teams remaining in Division I, already own five wins over high-major opponents.
There was little movement in the top 10 after a week with few upsets. Michigan (10-0), Duke (10-0), Iowa State (11-0) and UConn (10-1) remained Nos. 2-5, respectively. The only team to move up in the top 10 was No. 7 Gonzaga (10-1), which swapped places with No. 8 Houston (10-1) after adding another top-tier win over UCLA on Saturday.
The greater movement occurred between Nos. 10-25.
Nebraska (11-0) was the biggest riser, jumping eight spots to No. 15 after Saturday’s 83-80, buzzer-beating win over No. 18 Illinois. The Huskers, the lone power-conference team to never win an NCAA Tournament game, achieved their highest ranking since 1990-91, when they finished the season No. 11.
Illinois (8-3) and No. 23 Florida (6-4) were the biggest fallers, dropping five spots apiece.
Georgia (9-1) was the lone newcomer to the poll at No. 25, while UCLA (7-3) dropped out.
Here’s the full poll, along with my ballot:
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Record
|
Prev
|
CJ’s vote
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
9-0 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
2 |
10-0 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
3 |
10-0 |
3 |
5 |
|
|
4 |
11-0 |
4 |
3 |
|
|
5 |
10-1 |
5 |
4 |
|
|
6 |
10-1 |
6 |
6 |
|
|
7 |
10-1 |
8 |
7 |
|
|
8 |
10-1 |
7 |
10 |
|
|
9 |
9-1 |
9 |
9 |
|
|
10 |
9-1 |
10 |
8 |
|
|
11 |
9-1 |
11 |
11 |
|
|
12 |
9-1 |
14 |
15 |
|
|
13 |
10-0 |
15 |
12 |
|
|
14 |
8-2 |
17 |
14 |
|
|
15 |
11-0 |
23 |
13 |
|
|
16 |
7-3 |
12 |
17 |
|
|
17 |
8-3 |
19 |
16 |
|
|
18 |
8-3 |
13 |
18 |
|
|
19 |
7-3 |
16 |
21 |
|
|
20 |
7-3 |
20 |
20 |
|
|
21 |
8-3 |
21 |
NR |
|
|
22 |
6-3 |
22 |
24 |
|
|
23 |
6-4 |
18 |
19 |
|
|
24 |
9-1 |
24 |
22 |
|
|
25 |
9-1 |
NR |
25 |
|
|
NR |
9-2 |
NR |
23 |
Others receiving votes: USC 68, Iowa 47, Seton Hall 46, LSU 19, Kentucky 19, UCLA 16, Clemson 14, California 13, Saint Mary’s 12, Arizona State 5, Villanova 5, Notre Dame 4, Indiana 4, Miami (Ohio) 4, Miami (Fla.) 4, Utah State 2, Saint Louis 1, Wisconsin 1.
How good is Nebraska?
I caught Nebraska in person earlier this season when it beat New Mexico and Kansas State in Kansas City, Mo., and I’ve been a believer since. It’s a classic Fred Hoiberg team with a playmaking big, tons of shooting and awesome offensive execution. But what also stood out was how hard the Huskers played, and the defense is better than many of his best teams of the past at Iowa State.
The numbers are starting to back that up. The Huskers are up to 28th in adjusted defensive efficiency, the highest ranking ever for a Hoiberg defense. All this team was missing was signature wins, and it got two this past week, crushing Wisconsin 90-60 and then winning on the road at No. 18 Illinois on a last-second shot.
HE HIT IT‼️
Jamarques Lawrence’s 3-pointer right before the buzzer sends No. 23 @HuskerMBB to a dramatic win at No. 13 Illinois. pic.twitter.com/PhSr8kmnQn
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) December 13, 2025
Arkansas could keep climbing
Arkansas fell out of my rankings for a few weeks early in the season because its computer numbers were bad after a few close calls against mid-majors. It was obvious the talent was there, but the Razorbacks just weren’t sharp early. They’re starting to play up to their talent, and I moved them up to 14th this week, which is one spot below where I had them in the preseason.
John Calipari’s best teams always have an NBA-level point guard, and he has one in Darius Acuff, who is averaging 17.7 points and 5.7 assists. Calipari also has three big wings who could develop into pros — Meleek Thomas, Karter Knox and Billy Richmond III — and as I wrote about in my weekly rankings, Trevon Brazile is playing the best ball of his career. This team is deeper and more talented than last year’s group, which got hot late and made the Sweet 16. Might still be a little low on this group.
Best team not ranked: Iowa
Iowa has yet to make the AP Top 25, but I’ve ranked the Hawkeyes the last three weeks and would argue their case was made even stronger last week in a loss. Iowa led Iowa State by 13 in the first half last Thursday at Hilton Coliseum and ended up taking a 4-point loss, which actually moved it up in the computer models. The Hawkeyes now rank 20th at KenPom and Bart Torvik, 19th in the NET and 21st at Evan Miya.
As the Hawkeyes proved against Iowa State, they are a tough out. Similar to Drake last year, Ben McCollum’s second Division I team gives nothing in transition, is hard to score against in the half court and is exhaustingly patient offensively waiting for a great shot to develop.
I can understand why my fellow voters aren’t there yet. With Ole Miss being a disappointment, you could argue Iowa is missing a signature win. The first opportunity is Jan. 3 when Iowa hosts UCLA.
Arizona
Arizona baseball pitching coach John DeRouin taking position with Mets, per report
Pitching was a big reason why Arizona made it back to the College World Series last season. The return of many key arms for 2026 makes it likely the Wildcats will again have a stellar staff.
Who guides those pitchers, however, is uncertain.
Michael Lev of the Arizona Daily Star is reporting that pitching coach John DeRouin is leaving the program for a position within the New York Mets organization. DeRouin had been elevated to pitching coach over the summer after Kevin Vance was hired as head coach at San Diego State.
DeRouin, who was a pitching strategist under Vance the previous two seasons, was integral in developing Arizona’s arms, particularly starters Owen Kramkowski and Smith Bailey and reliever Tony Pluta. That trio are among several key pitchers returning from the CWS team, with DeRouin’s promotion factoring in their decisions to stay in Tucson.
“John is like the pitching whisperer,” head coach Chip Hale said last month.
Hale could promote from within again, elevating Owen Cuffe. Whoever he hires will technically be his fourth pitching coach in five seasons. Dave Lawn handled the role in 2022-23, retained from Jay Johnson’s staff, before Vance was hired in 2024.
DeRouin is the latest in a string of college baseball coaches leaving for pro jobs. The most notable is Tennessee head coach, hired last month as manager of the San Francisco Giants
Arizona begins preseason practice in January ahead of the 2026 opener Feb. 13 against former Pac-12 rival Stanford at a tournament in Surprise.
Arizona
Report: Michigan search includes Arizona State’s Kenny Dillingham, Missouri’s Eli Drinkwitz
ANN ARBOR, Mich. — The firm hired by Michigan to search for a football coach to replace Sherrone Moore has contacted representatives for Arizona State’s Kenny Dillingham and Missouri’s Eli Drinkwitz, according to a person familiar with the situation.
The person spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity Saturday because they were not authorized to share details of the search.
Moore was fired on Wednesday, when the school said an investigation uncovered his inappropriate relationship with a staffer. Two days later, Moore was charged with three crimes after prosecutors said he “barged his way” into the apartment of a woman he’d been having an affair with and threatened to kill himself.
College football’s winning program suddenly needs a coach.
After the 35-year-old Dillingham was linked to numerous open jobs last month, he said he was not leaving his alma mater.
Two weeks ago, Drinkwitz agreed to a six-year contract that increases his average compensation to $10.75 million annually.
Michigan is hoping to hire a coach this month, helping its chances of retaining recruits and keeping key players out of the transfer portal in January.
Dillingham, who is from Scottsdale, Arizona, graduated from Arizona State in 2013 and started his coaching career as an assistant for the Sun Devils. After coaching at Memphis, he was the offensive coordinator for Auburn, Florida State and Oregon before returning to Arizona State.
Dillingham orchestrated a quick turnaround, leading the Sun Devils to the Big 12 championship and the College Football Playoff for the first time last year.
Arizona State was 8-4 this season, improving Dillingham’s record to 22-16 over three seasons.
The 42-year-old Drinkwitz is 46-28 in six seasons at Missouri after going 12-1 in a year at Appalachian State. He has built the Tigers into a steady Southeastern Conference program, earning five straight bowl bids.
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