State Rep. Austin Theriault, left, and U.S. Rep. Jared Golden

Maine’s high-stakes congressional race has overtaken the airwaves and headlines as the 2nd District candidates spar in debates and money pours in from around the country to pay for relentless TV ads about who will offer the most independent leadership and who can’t be trusted to stand up for the voters.

The race between Democrat Jared Golden, a three-term incumbent and former Marine, and Republican Austin Theriault, a one-term state legislator and former NASCAR driver, is one of a few swing district contests nationwide that could determine the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives, where Republicans hold a small majority.

And while Golden has won three times before, the vast and mostly rural district is one of only a few held by a Democrat but also won by former Republican President Donald Trump, who is expected to carry the district again next month.

“This is one of the most competitive races in the country,” said Erin Covey, editor of U.S. House elections at the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, an independent nonpartisan group that analyzes elections. “This is going to be a race that could ultimately tip the balance of power to one party or the other, just because control of the House is so slim.”

“Republicans have a four-seat advantage. Overall we see control of the House as a toss-up, and this is one of the races it could come down to.”

With the balance of power at stake, outside groups and some out-of-state billionaires are pouring money into the contest for ads, mostly featuring negative attacks on the candidates. As of Oct. 1, about a dozen outside groups unaffiliated with either campaign spent about $6.8 million on the race, and more is coming. The Associated Press reported that groups reserved nearly $16 million in airtime through the election.

Congressman Jared Golden at his home in Lewiston on Oct. 3. Brianna Soukup/Staff Photographer

Golden said in an interview with the Press Herald that he is proud of his record of being one of the most bipartisan members of Congress, which has drawn criticism from the left flank of his party.

“The job isn’t about making friends,” Golden said of his independent style. “It’s not about being popular with your colleagues or with your leadership.

Theriault did not agree to be interviewed for this story but has said he wants to help make sure Republicans keep a majority in the House so it can support Trump’s America first agenda.

“We need to maintain control of Congress,” he said in a radio interview before the Republican primary.

Austin Theriault, Republican candidate for the 2nd Congressional District, in Portland on Oct. 3. Shawn Patrick Ouellette/Staff Photographer

Most of the TV ads attack Golden for his positions on securing the border and gun laws, while seeking to tie him to President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, and policies the critics say fueled inflation.

Golden and his supporters have responded by airing ads highlighting his independence, since he votes against the administration more than any other House Democrat. He has also highlighted efforts to work with Trump and Republicans, and he penned an Op-Ed when Biden was running for reelection, saying that Trump would win and “I’m OK with that.”

Ads attacking Theriault accuse him of wanting to charge seniors more for health care – a reference to his opposition to the Inflation Reduction Act, which lowered health care costs – and being willing to support cuts to Social Security and Medicare, which Theriault has denied. Theriault, meanwhile, has used the airwaves to defend his position on abortion, denying that he would support a national ban on access.

While Golden and Theriault are the only two candidates whose names will be listed on ballots, there is a declared write-in, Diana Merenda, of Surry. The existence of a third candidate means voters have the opportunity to rank the candidates by preference, although an actual ranked choice runoff with a write-in candidate is highly unlikely.

NATIONAL SPOTLIGHT

The race is one of two dozen toss-ups nationwide being tracked by the Cook Political Report, and Covey said it’s one of the top 10 pick-up opportunities in the country for Republicans. When House Speaker Michael Johnson visited Lewiston over the summer, he said the race was one of the party’s top five pick-up opportunities.

Congressman Jared Golden at his home in Lewiston on Oct. 3. Golden, the incumbent Democrat in Maine’s 2nd District, is running against Republican Austin Theriault, who is finishing his first term as a state lawmaker. Brianna Soukup/Staff Photographer

Golden is among the five Democrats in toss-up races who are trying to hold their seats in Trump districts, and the 2nd District is one of two with the strongest support for Trump, according to Cook.

While Trump’s popularity looms over the race, a combination of other factors also contribute to the especially tight race, Covey said. Golden has changed his position on gun rights, now backing a ban on assault style weapons. And he is facing a strong challenger in Theriault, who secured the early backing of national Republicans after being recruited by former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

Theriault is young and a relative newcomer to politics, which Covey said allows him to avoid the pitfalls of former Rep. Bruce Poliquin, whom Golden defeated twice, largely by labeling the Republican as a career politician.

“This going to be his toughest reelection campaign to date,” Covey said.

But Golden’s independent streak could still help him keep his job.

“Golden’s record of winning here and his proven appeal to independent and more Republican-leaning voters – that should not be taken for granted,” Covey said. “Even though it may have shrunk, he starts out in a better position than most Democrats.”

Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, also believes the race is a true toss-up, one of 18 he’s tracking. And it’s one that Republicans think they can win, he said, which is why they’re investing heavily into the race.

“I think Republicans are more confident this time than in previous years because they really like their challenger,” Kondik said. “I think both sides are viewing it as a winnable race.”

There is no recent public polling to indicate where the race stands less than a month before Election Day. A poll conducted from Sept. 5-15 by Pan Atlantic Research showed Theriault leading by 3 points  – but that was within the 3.5% margin of error and 9% of respondents said they were undecided.

Kondik said the race is difficult to predict because Maine voters aren’t afraid to split their tickets.

“It’s one of the few places in the country where you have a House member of a different party than the party that is likely to win the district for president,” Kondik said. “There is some sense, particularly in these smaller states, that voters can know more about their elected officials and maybe there’s more of an opening for ticket-splitting, and Golden is going to need that.”

TWO ROADS TO SERVICE MERGE

The candidates followed very different paths into public service and onto the front line of a high-stakes battle for control of Congress.

A native of Leeds, Golden joined the Marines after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks and served two combat tours in Afghanistan and Iraq. He returned home, completed his college education and entered politics as an aide to Maine’s senior U.S. senator, Republican Susan Collins. He then served two terms in the state Legislature, rising to party leadership, before winning his seat in the U.S. House of Representatives.

The 42-year-old said in a 40-minute interview with the Press Herald that serving in the Marines taught him about true leadership – putting the mission and service to others ahead of one’s self. He learned ways small and large to demonstrate that leadership, he said, whether it’s having the lowest ranking soldiers line up first for chow or risking life to complete a mission.

Golden said that he tries to live by that philosophy in Congress, which is increasingly difficult as party positions are handed down from leadership and politics in general has become more polarized.

“It’s about making tough decisions and keeping your eye on representing your district and the local needs,” he said. “And sometimes that can come at a cost, where you might not necessarily be the most popular guy or everyone’s favorite Democrat.”

Austin Theriault, the Republican candidate for the 2nd Congressional District. Shawn Patrick Ouellette/Staff Photographer

At 30 years old, Theriault began his public service career two years ago after returning to his home state.

Theriault grew up in the St. John Valley near the Canadian border and moved away to pursue a career as a NASCAR driver. He moved back to Maine a couple years after his driving career ended in 2019 and continues to run a consulting and training business for young drivers.

A campaign spokesperson said Theriault didn’t have time to be interviewed for this story and asked for questions to be submitted in writing. His campaign said Theriault lived in North Carolina from 2019 to 2021 before returning to Maine.

In radio interviews, Theriault has said he’s running to bring his experience as a small-business owner to Washington and to help Trump implement his “America first” agenda. He was endorsed by Trump and Johnson, the House speaker, during the Republican primary.

He frequently points to his roots growing up in a French Catholic family in Aroostook County, where he says he learned the meaning of hard work from his grandfather and father, a farmer and a logging trucker, respectively. Everything else, he has said, he learned during his racing career.

Theriault suggested in a Jan. 15 interview on WGAN News Radio that government restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic prompted him to run for office, though he didn’t provide much detail.

“I’ve always been interested in giving back and serving the community as best as I could,” Theriault said. “So when COVID came around and I saw some of the crazy policies that were being put forward it seemed like the right time to start getting involved in local office.”

He entered politics in 2022 when he ran for the state House of Representatives. He easily won, receiving 71% of the vote for the open seat representing part of Aroostook County.

INDEPENDENCE

Both Golden and Theriault are promising to be strong independent voices, while accusing each other of being unable to stand up for the district.

Golden has portrayed Theriault as a sycophant to Trump and House Republicans, and warned that Theriault will not follow through on his vow to buck his own party, including a promise to vote against any effort to cut Social Security or Medicare.

Theriault has said he will be a more aggressive advocate for the district than Golden. But, in radio interviews, he also has spoken repeatedly about how Trump would need “players on the field” to help implement his agenda.

“What do you think is going to happen if (Trump) wins the presidency and Democrats somehow win control of Congress?” Theriault said in a May 31 interview on WVOM radio. “They’re going to try to impeach him again, and we’re going to get nothing done for four years.”

Theriault’s campaign did not provide any examples of him standing up to his own party leadership during his two years in the State House, where he kept a relatively low profile as a first-term representative.

He has described himself as one of the most bipartisan members of the Legislature, though it’s not clear how often he broke with his party because the Legislature doesn’t produce an analysis of roll call votes. His campaign also said he was instrumental in securing funds for road and bridge work in the state budget and lowering energy costs, but did not name any specific bills or initiatives.

Golden’s approach to lawmaking and willingness to defy his party has rankled diehard Democrats, especially from the progressive flank. But it has been a winning formula in the district, where he has received support from divergent interests, including endorsements from organized labor and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

Golden has been repeatedly criticized by Theriault for not saying whom he plans to support for president. Golden has said he won’t vote for Trump, but also has not expressed support for Harris, saying voters don’t want his advice about whom to support.

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