Finance

Chart of the Week: The jobs report's instant expectations shift

Published

1 year ago

October 5, 2024

Chart of the Week: The jobs report's instant expectations shift

This is The Takeaway from today’s Morning Brief, which you can sign up to receive in your inbox every morning along with:

The labor market offered an unexpected surprise on Friday as the September jobs report showed 254,000 payrolls added in September — 104,000 more than expected.

Worries of a flagging labor market have been the main point of economic focus over the past month as the conversation has turned from inflation, which appears to be in control at last, to the other half of the Fed’s dual mandate.

In the leadup this week, two key reports showed mixed data. The JOLTS numbers showed more job openings, but more conservative hires and quits. The ADP numbers showed surprising strength in private payrolls, but lower wage gains for job switchers — a key labor market thermometer that dogged the inflationary 2021 and 2022 years.

As our Chart of the Week shows, the economists have been caught off guard. September’s report has suddenly changed expectations for the Fed’s trajectory, as the market now sees four 25 basis point rate cuts over the next four meetings and a higher terminal rate when the cuts end.

Renaissance Macro Research’s Neil Dutta sees the print as bolstering the guidance of a 25 basis point cut per meeting until 2025, noting that the report “overwhelms all other employment indicators” that showed a weakening labor market.

“Today’s data might be the first sign of stabilization,” Dutta wrote on X, formerly Twitter.

Nearly every note we saw from Wall Street economists Friday was in agreement. This shifting dynamic suggests that not only is 50 basis points off the table for November’s meeting — some are even questioning any further cutting with numbers so strong.

“Looking at the [labor] market strength evident in September’s employment report, the real debate at the Fed should be about whether to loosen monetary policy at all,” Capital Economics chief North America economist Paul Ashworth wrote in a note to clients on Friday. “Any hopes of a [50 basis point] cut are long gone.”

On the one hand, life comes at you fast. A new report comes and blows everybody’s views out of the water and even threatens to pull the dreaded topic of inflation back in, just when we thought we were out.

On the other, to quote Fed Chair Powell from the June meeting, “it always makes sense to look at a series … rather than just one report.” The “totality” of data, not just one report — which of course will get more weight because it’s still warm from the printer, magnifying the effect of an already huge beat.

What is clear is that the Fed’s wait-and-see, meeting-by-meeting attitude is far from ready to be abandoned, as the moment’s uniqueness keeps showing itself.

Besides the unexpected headline numbers, the unemployment rate-focused Sahm Rule — which has already been played down by its creator, Claudia Sahm — showed an unusual retreat after previously surpassing a recessionary mark that, once passed, usually keeps going up. Another point for the “this time could be different” camp.

It doesn’t end there. Year-over-year wage growth was 4%, up from 3.9%, a gain that would typically spark serious inflation concerns, but hasn’t. Putting aside whether “not cutting” is perhaps tantamount to hiking, the fundamental narrative of the Fed’s directionality hasn’t changed, only adjusted.

Counterbalancing the jobs numbers is survey after survey that shows labor sentiment declining — a factor arguably as important as the actual numbers. (If people feel like jobs are scarce, they may also feel like spending a little more conservatively.)

“On the face of this the Fed should be hiking rates with these sorts of figures, not cutting rates,” wrote ING’s James Knightley. “Nonetheless, we feel that the risks remain skewed towards weaker growth and lower Fed funds given the perception amongst households of a deteriorating jobs market (even if today’s numbers don’t confirm that), which may lead to consumers spending more cautiously.”

For the Fed, at least, the wait-and-see approach looks even better than it did previously as it seeks to gently land the plane. With both the economy looking strong and inflation getting in check, nothing sits to force its hand — for now.

Ethan Wolff-Mann is a Senior Editor at Yahoo Finance, running newsletters. Follow him on X @ewolffmann.

Click here for the latest economic news and indicators to help inform your investing decisions

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

Click to comment

Finance

Simply Asset Finance reaches $2.6bn loan origination milestone in 2025

Published

4 hours ago

December 15, 2025

Press Room

Simply Asset Finance reaches .6bn loan origination milestone in 2025

Improvements in the company’s own technology and stronger results in various regions contributed to increased efficiency in lending operations. Credit: Kunakorn Rassadornyindee / Shutterstock.com.

Simply Asset Finance has reported that its total loan origination reached £2bn ($2.6bn) in 2025, following its growth and lending activity during the period.

During 2025, the company’s gross loan book increased to £543m and its customer base grew to 13,000.

Access deeper industry intelligence

Experience unmatched clarity with a single platform that combines unique data, AI, and human expertise.

Find out more

Additional digital platforms came online, and commercial loans were added to the range of available finance solutions.

Improvements in the company’s own technology and stronger results in various regions contributed to increased efficiency in lending operations and a broader local presence for SME clients.

In July, Simply Asset Finance introduced Kara, an AI-powered virtual agent.

Kara uses the company’s past data to enhance user interactions, streamline internal processes, and speed up decisions on lending applications.

Simply Asset Finance CEO Mike Randall said: “Our growth this year has built on the momentum of 2024, and reaching £2bn is a clear milestone for the business. All our channels have driven that progress, with rising demand for specialist lending helping us expand our footprint and support even more SMEs across the UK.

“Despite a year of challenging economic conditions, small businesses have remained resilient and ready to invest. Kara has been central to meeting demand quickly and efficiently –  and we expect her value to our customers will only grow.

“As we head into 2026, we’re focused on carrying this momentum forward and working with even more brilliant businesses to unlock their potential.”

Last month, Simply Asset Finance became a Patron lender of the National Association of Commercial Finance Brokers (NACFB).

This partnership is aimed at supporting the broker community in the UK and increasing access to asset finance and leasing products through wider distribution.

The NACFB is known as an independent UK trade association for commercial finance intermediaries, promoting cooperation between lenders and brokers across the sector.

Finance

Baker McKenzie Welcomes Finance & Projects Principal Matthias Schemuth in Singapore | Newsroom | Baker McKenzie

Published

17 hours ago

December 14, 2025

Press Room

Baker McKenzie Welcomes Finance & Projects Principal Matthias Schemuth in Singapore | Newsroom | Baker McKenzie

Baker McKenzie today announced that leading project finance lawyer Matthias Schemuth has joined the Firm’s Singapore office* as a Principal and Asia Pacific Co-Head of Projects in its Finance & Projects practice, alongside Partner Jon Ornolffson in Tokyo.

Matthias joins the Firm from DLA Piper, bringing more than 20 years of experience in the energy and infrastructure sectors across Asia Pacific. He advises sponsors, developers, commercial banks, multilateral lending agencies, and export credit agencies on the structuring and financing of large-scale projects. His practice also spans international banking, structured commodity and trade finance, with a strong focus on emerging markets. Matthias has been consistently recognised by Chambers Asia Pacific and Who’s Who Legal as a leading project finance practitioner.

James Huang, Managing Principal of Baker McKenzie Wong & Leow in Singapore, said: “We are excited to welcome Matthias to our team. His expertise and proven record in managing teams will be invaluable as we expand our regional and global finance offerings for clients.”

Emmanuel Hadjidakis, Asia Pacific Chair of Baker McKenzie’s Banking & Finance Practice, commented: “Asia Pacific is seeing strong momentum in infrastructure development, energy transition investments, and cross-border project financing, much of it centred in Singapore. Having Matthias on board will further enhance our ability to help clients seize opportunities in the region’s evolving energy and infrastructure markets.”

Steven Sieker, Baker McKenzie’s Asia Chief Executive, added: “Matthias’s appointment underscores Baker McKenzie’s continued commitment to investing in exceptional talent across key markets to support our clients in navigating today’s increasingly complex business and regulatory environment.”

Matthias said: “I’m thrilled to join Baker McKenzie and contribute to its strong growth in Asia Pacific. The Firm’s global reach and local depth provide an unparalleled platform for delivering innovative projects and financing solutions to clients in this dynamic region.”

With more than 2,700 deal practitioners in more than 40 jurisdictions, Baker McKenzie is a transactional powerhouse. The Firm excels in complex, cross-border transactions; over 65% of our deals are multijurisdictional. The teams are a hybrid of ‘local’ and ‘global’, combining money-market sophistication with local excellence. The Firm’s Banking & Finance lawyers are ranked in more jurisdictions than any other firm by Chambers.

Matthias’s hire continues the expansion of Baker McKenzie’s global team. His joining follows the recent arrivals of Carole Turcotte in Toronto; Tom Oslovar in Palo Alto; Jenny Liu in New York and Palo Alto; Helen Johnson, Mark Thompson, Nick Benson, Kevin Heverin, James Wyatt and Michal Berkner in London; Jan Schubert in Frankfurt; Todd Beauchamp and Charles Weinstein in Washington DC; Dan Ouyang, Winfield Lau, and Ke (Ronnie) Li in Beijing, Shanghai, and Hong Kong; and Alexander Stathopoulos in Singapore.

*Baker McKenzie Wong & Leow is the member firm of Baker McKenzie in Singapore

Finance

3 finance stocks to buy on rising 10-year Treasury rates

Published

1 day ago

December 14, 2025

Press Room

3 finance stocks to buy on rising 10-year Treasury rates

The Federal Reserve gave investors an early Christmas present by lowering interest rates by 25 basis points (i.e., 0.25%) marking its third rate cut this year. In the past, a change like this in the “long end” of the interest rate yield curve has triggered a predictable, investable pattern. Typically, this pattern would be bearish for finance stocks, particularly banks—investors would buy bank stocks when rates rose and sell them as rates fell….