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What stat matters most in college football? Keep an eye on explosive play margin

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What stat matters most in college football? Keep an eye on explosive play margin

In the old days, they were known as big plays. Or maybe long plays. It’s not clear when, or why, football people started to refer to them as “explosive plays” or just “explosives.” It was probably around the time football people started referring to position groups as “rooms.”

The football people also can’t quite agree on what defines an explosive play, because there is no official definition: Some use 15-yard runs and 20-yard passes. Others use less.

“People tend to slant those to whichever one is favorable to them,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart said last year.

There has been a growing consensus, however, that a stat is very important: Explosive play margin, as in who has more in a game, is heavily indicative of who wins the game. Maybe it was always that way, maybe it means more in this era of higher scoring and more passing, meaning bend-but-don’t-break defenses have the upper hand, and ground-and-pound offenses don’t.

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Georgia’s survival at Kentucky is a prime example: Kentucky outgained Georgia in yards, 284-262, and had a good running game in the second half. But in that decisive second half — using the definition of explosives as rushes of 12-plus yards and passes of 16-plus — Georgia had five explosive plays (three passes, two runs), Kentucky only had one, as Georgia’s defense gave ground but firmed up when it needed to.


Georgia coach Kirby Smart, Carson Beck (15) survived against Kentucky on Saturday with a 13-12 win. (Carter Skaggs / Imagn Images)

That’s just one example from this season, when the data continues to show, along with previous seasons, that explosive play margin is a key factor:

2024 (so far)

In SEC play — conference or nonconference — the team that wins explosive play margin has a 32-2 record.

The biggest exception is Arkansas, which was plus-15 in its overtime loss at Oklahoma State, with the Razorbacks blowing a huge lead and killing themselves with penalties (seven for 70 yards) and turnovers (minus-two). The other one was Vanderbilt (nine explosives) in its five-point loss to Georgia State (eight explosives).

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When the explosive play margin is even or close, teams give themselves a chance. But the worse it gets, the harder it gets. Here’s a breakdown by margin, via TruMedia:

  • +10 or better: 10-1
  • +5 to +9: 13-0
  • +1 to +4: 9-1
  • Even: 1-2
  • -1 to -4: 3-4
  • -5 to -9: 0-3
  • -10 or worse: 0-1

On a cumulative basis, the data is similar. There are three SEC teams with losing records, and those three rank in the bottom four in overall explosive play margin. The only SEC team with a negative differential and a winning record is LSU, which was minus-10 in its season-opening loss to USC, but plus-five in its win at South Carolina.

SEC explosive plays per game

Team Explosives Opponent explosives Differential

16.00

2.67

13.33

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18.00

6.00

12.00

17.00

5.33

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11.67

10.33

2.67

7.67

11.67

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4.33

7.33

10.67

4.00

6.67

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7.67

3.00

4.67

11.00

7.00

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4.00

8.00

5.33

2.67

8.00

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6.67

1.33

6.00

5.67

0.33

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7.67

7.33

0.33

5.00

5.00

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0.00

9.00

9.67

-0.67

8.33

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9.33

-1.00

7.67

9.00

-1.33

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Source: TruMedia

Recent season history

Between 2019-23, SEC teams that had more explosive plays than their opponent had an overall record of 397-72. And the higher the margin in that game, the more likely they were to win, per TruMedia:

  • +10 or better: 52-2 (.963)
  • +5 to +9: 153-9 (.944)
  • +1 to +4: 193-61 (.760)
  • Even: 42-38 (.525)
  • -1 to -4: 62-145 (.300)
  • -5 to -9: 10-87 (.103)
  • -10 or worse: 2-16 (.111)

(For what it’s worth, four of the 12 losses by teams with five-plus margins were during the 2020 COVID 19 season.)

On a cumulative basis, the five SEC champions — and six College Football Playoff participants, meaning Georgia in 2021 — each averaged 3.5 more explosive plays than their opponents. The four SEC teams that won the national title during that time each averaged at least four more explosive plays than their opponents.

Does defense win championships? No, explosive play margin does.

The reason for the data

Three-and-outs are great, but not necessary and also much harder to get than they used to be: Per TruMedia, the rate of three-and-outs forced by SEC defenses has gone down, from 35.5 percent of drives in 2004 to 31.5 percent in 2014 to 27.8 percent so far this year.

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But the defenses that force the offense to stay on the field for longer, thus increasing the chance for mistakes, give themselves a better shot.

Georgia’s defense hasn’t given up a touchdown during the past four games, and in the season opener, Clemson was held to three or fewer plays on six of its 11 possessions. But on Saturday night, Kentucky only had one three-and-out among its 10 drives. The bigger deal was preventing the Wildcats from getting into the red zone on all but one of their possessions.

On the other side of the ball, the offenses that get bigger chunk plays decrease their chances for mistakes. Time of possession, as a result, has become much less meaningful: Ole Miss (28 minutes, 55 seconds), Alabama (29:10) and Georgia (29:42) are all averaging less time of possession than their opponents so far. Tennessee (30:48) and Texas (30:21) are barely above the mark.

It’s a higher-scoring era, and coaches would rather have points than long drives that only get three points. Turnover margin still matters, as do field position and some other traditional factors. But explosive play margin is the one that may tell the story as much as any.

(Top photos of Jaxson Dart, left, and Nico Iamaleava: Petre Thomas / Imagn Images and Lance King / Getty Images)

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USA Rugby to introduce ‘open’ gender category for trans athletes

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USA Rugby to introduce ‘open’ gender category for trans athletes

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USA Rugby, the nation’s governing body for the sport of rugby, announced Friday it will be introducing a new “open” gender division to accommodate trans athletes.

The new rule comes more than a year after President Donald Trump’s “Keeping Men Out of Women’s Sports” executive order and nearly seven months after the U.S. Olympic & Paralympic Committee’s (USOPC) new requirement for all governing bodies to comply with it.

“USA Rugby will now have three competition categories; Men’s Division, Women’s Division and Open Division. The Open Division will permit any athlete, regardless of gender assigned at birth and gender identity, to compete in USA Rugby-sanctioned events, whether full contact or non-contact,” the organization said in a statement. 

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Cassidy Bargell of the United States passes the ball during a women’s rugby World Cup 2025 match against Samoa at LNER Community Stadium in Monks Cross, York, Sept. 6, 2025. (Michael Driver/MI News/NurPhoto)

The organization’s policy also seemingly allows any hopeful competitors to simply select their gender when registering, with potential vetting by officials.

“Division status will be determined during the membership application and registration process, when an athlete selects the ‘gender’ option in Rugby Xplorer. When applying for membership or registering as ‘Female’ or registering for an event in the Women’s Division, an athlete represents and warrants to USA Rugby that they are Female.”

“This representation creates a rebuttable presumption that the individual’s sex identified at birth was female,” the organization’s member policy states. 

Gabriella Cantorna, Ilona Maher and Emily Henrich of the U.S. before a women’s rugby World Cup 2025 match against Samoa at York Community Stadium Sept. 6, 2025, in York, England.  (Molly Darlington/World Rugby/World Rugby via Getty Images)

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“The determination of whether an individual is Female may be established through records from authoritative sources. Only USA Rugby shall have the right to contest the individual’s Women’s Division status or challenge the presumption of an athlete registered as ‘Female.’”

In July, the USOPC updated its athlete safety policy to indicate compliance with Trump’s “Keeping Men Out of Women’s Sports” executive order. 

However, Trump has also pushed for mandatory genetic testing of athletes to protect the women’s category at the upcoming 2028 Los Angeles Olympics amid concerns over forged birth certificates allowing biological males to gain access to women’s sports.

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The USA Rugby goal line flag before a match between the United States and Scotland at Audi Field July 12, 2024, in Washington, D.C. (Scott Taetsch/Getty Images for Scottish Rugby)

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USOPC Chief Medical Officer Jonathan Finnoff said at the USOPC media summit in October the SRY gene tests being used by World Athletics and World Boxing are “not common” in the U.S. but suggested the USOPC is exploring options to employ sex testing options for its own teams and that he expects other world governing bodies to “follow suit.” 

“It’s not necessarily very common to get this specific test in the United States, and, so, our goal in that was helping to identify labs and options for the athletes to be able to get that testing. And (it was) based on that experience and knowing that some other international federations likely will be following suit,” Finnoff said. 

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Growing forfeits in soccer because of ineligible players could spur change to CIF bylaw

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Growing forfeits in soccer because of ineligible players could spur change to CIF bylaw

Forfeits by high school boys’ soccer teams in the City Section and Southern Section playoffs continued Friday as both sections try to deal with violations of CIF Bylaw 600, which prohibits players from participating in outside leagues during their sports season.

Calabasas pulled out of the Southern Section Division 3 championship because of an ineligible player. Chavez became the sixth City Section school eliminated from the playoffs for using an ineligible player and was replaced by Chatsworth for the City Division I final.

There’s also an allegation about another Southern Section team that could result in another forfeit in the final.

Some high schools thought they had found a solution by not allowing players to play until after their club seasons ended in early December. Cathedral had several players miss its first three games because of several big club tournaments in November and early December.

“You communicate to students and parents,” Cathedral coach Arturo Lopez said. “Unfortunately, there’s more and more academies now.”

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Ron Nocetti, the executive director of the CIF, said, “I think we have to have conversations with our sections.”

CIF membership repeatedly has rejected the proposal of getting rid of Bylaw 600. Schools don’t want to have their coaches battling it out weekly with club coaches, which also would place additional pressure on athletes dealing with school work and then having to do double workouts.

The balancing act for students already is tough enough, with the amount of club teams growing in a lot of sports because it’s a lucrative business. The CIF briefly suspended the rule during the pandemic in 2020 but quickly reinstated it.

The problem is club soccer programs are holding competitions in the middle of the high school season, and players, knowing the rule that you can’t play high school and club at the same time, apparently have decided to try to do both with the hope of not getting caught.

This year, they are getting caught. Emails alleging violations started arriving to City Section commissioner Vicky Lagos before the semifinals. If a player is found to have played club, the high school team has to forfeit, and if it happens during the playoffs, the team is eliminated.

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Usually the pressure is on schools to make sure rules are not violated, but for Bylaw 600, schools can do everything right and still be punished for a player violating the rule on their own.

Several leagues are expected to present proposals to get rid of Bylaw 600. Nocetti said membership might be open to adopting changes.

“Maybe this is a tipping point for schools saying maybe it’s time to make a big change with the rule,” he said.

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Anthony Richardson free to seek trade after injury setbacks amid Colts’ shift to Daniel Jones

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Anthony Richardson free to seek trade after injury setbacks amid Colts’ shift to Daniel Jones

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Anthony Richardson Sr.’s future in Indianapolis faces more uncertainty than ever. 

The Indianapolis Colts granted Anthony Richardson, the team that used the fourth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft on the quarterback, permission to explore a trade. His agent, Deiric Jackson, confirmed the latest development in the 23-year-old’s tumultuous career to ESPN on Thursday.

Veteran quarterback Daniel Jones beat out Richardson in a preseason competition for the starting job. Jones made the most of another opportunity as an NFL starter, helping the Colts win eight of their first 10 games of the 2025 regular season. 

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Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson heads off the field after an NFL football game against the Denver Broncos on Sunday, Dec. 15, 2024 in Denver, Colorado. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

However, his season was ultimately derailed by an Achilles injury. The setback came two years after he tore an ACL with the New York Giants. The Colts appear ready to move forward with Jones, clouding Richardson’s future in Indianapolis.

Jones is set to become a free agent in March, meaning the Colts must either use the franchise tag or sign him to a new deal. Richardson has started just 15 games in three seasons with the Colts, his tenure largely shaped by injuries. 

A shoulder surgery limited Richardson to four games during his rookie campaign, while a series of setbacks cost him four games in 2024. 

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) looks for an open receiver during the game against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. (Troy Taormina/Imagn Images)

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Richardson suffered what was described as a “freak pregame incident” during warmups last season, landing him on injured reserve after attempting just two passes in two games in 2025. He has thrown 11 touchdowns against 13 interceptions in his NFL career. 

Colts general manager Chris Ballard said Tuesday that the vision problems stemming from Richardson’s orbital fracture last October are “trending in the right direction.” He added that Richardson has been “cleared to play.”

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) celebrates his touchdown against the New York Jets during the fourth quarter at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Brad Penner/Imagn Images)

Riley Leonard, a sixth-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, is expected to return to the Colts next season.

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When asked about Richardson’s standing with the Colts moving ahead, Ballard replied, “I still believe in Anthony.”

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