Pennsylvania
Here’s Why Pennsylvania Might Be The Most Important Prize In The 2024 Election
Topline
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are nearly tied in Pennsylvania, according to two new polls this week in the battleground state, where a win for either candidate could pave the way to the White House.
Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris reacts as Former President and … [+]
Key Facts
Harris leads by 0.6 points in Pennsylvania, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average—a recent Morning Consult poll found her up by three points, 49% to 46%, and a September CBS/YouGov poll showed Harris and Trump even, both at 50%.
Pennsylvania has more electoral votes, 19, than any other battleground, and Pennsylvanians routinely pick winners, voting for 10 of the last 12 White House winners—the candidate who has won Pennsylvania has also won Michigan and Wisconsin (the three states together are known as the “blue wall”) in the past eight elections.
Pennsylvania has a 35% chance of tipping the election, far more than any other battleground state, according to political analyst Nate Silver’s election forecasting model that found Harris has a 91% of winning the election if she wins Pennsylvania, while Trump has a 96% chance of winning.
Trump became the first Republican to win Pennsylvania since the 1980s in the 2016 election, and Biden, who is originally from Scranton, Pennsylvania, reversed the trend in 2020, with the state to putting him over the 270-vote threshold needed to win the Electoral College when the Associated Press called Pennsylvania for Biden four days after the election.
Underscoring Pennsylvania’s weight in the 2024 election, ABC News chose to host the first presidential debate between Trump and Harris there, on Tuesday in Philadelphia; Pennsylvania is also significant to Trump personally, as he was shot there while speaking at a rally near Butler on July 14.
Pennsylvania has a large share of white, working class voters, with nearly 75% of the population identifying as non-Hispanic white—a demographic Trump typically performs well with, though Harris has made inroads with white voters compared to Biden’s performance in 2020, trailing Trump by only three points nationally, according to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll, after Trump won the demographic by 12 points in 2020.
Surprising Fact
No Democrat has won the White House without Pennsylvania since 1948. If Harris wins Pennsylvania, and the trend of also winning Wisconsin and Michigan holds, she’s all but certain to win the White House.
Big Number
82%. That’s the share of registered voters in Pennsylvania who said the economy is a major factor in their 2024 vote, followed by inflation at 78% and the state of democracy at 70%, according to the CBS/YouGov survey. The results are on par with the national electorate, according to a recent Pew Research survey of registered voters that found 81% of registered voters rate the economy as “very important” in the election.
Chief Critic
Trump and his allies have repeatedly attacked Harris over her previous endorsement of a fracking ban—Pennsylvania is the country’s second-largest natural gas producer. “Fracking? She’s been against it for 12 years,” Trump said during Tuesday’s debate in Philadelphia. Harris, who said during a 2019 CNN climate town hall while she was running for president “there’s no question I’m in favor of banning fracking,” has said she’s since changed her stance. During Tuesday’s debate, she said she made “very clear” in 2020 that she’s against a fracking ban, presumably referring to her vice presidential debate with Mike Pence, and noted the Inflation Reduction Act opened new gas leases—reiterating a stance she took in a CNN interview last month. Harris didn’t actually say she changed her own position on the issue during the 2020 debate—instead she said then-Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden “will not end fracking.”
Tangent
Pennsylvania has a divided state legislature. The state’s Democratic governor, Josh Shapiro, is widely popular in the state. Democrats also control the House, but Republicans hold the majority in the Senate.
Key Background
Harris leads Trump in five of seven battleground states, while Trump is ahead in Arizona and Georgia, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages that show margins of less than three points in all seven battleground states (Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin). If Trump maintains his leads in Arizona and Georgia, and wins North Carolina, as he’s expected to, he would need just one of the “Blue Wall” states to win the White House.
Further Reading
Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Harris Leading Trump Narrowly In Michigan And Wisconsin—But Tied In Pennsylvania (Forbes)
How Kamala Harris’ Views On Fracking Have Changed—After Backtracking On Ban (Forbes)
Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Up By 1 Point—As Her Lead Plateaus Before Debate (Forbes)
A Pennsylvania court ruling is reshaping abortion access in the state, striking down a decades-old ban on using Medicaid to pay for abortions and declaring that the Pennsylvania Constitution guarantees a right to abortion.
The decision came Monday from the state’s Commonwealth Court. In a 4-3 vote, judges ruled in favor of abortion rights in Pennsylvania and invalidated the state’s restriction on Medicaid-funded abortions.
Local abortion-rights advocates praised the ruling as a major step toward protecting access for low-income residents. Adrienne Daily, co-founder of Johnstown for Choice, said, “Everybody should have the right to that. If you restrict the coverage, you’re obviously discriminating against those that have lower income.”
Opponents of abortion rights called the decision a dramatic expansion of the court’s power and warned it will force taxpayers to pay for procedures they oppose. Michael Geer, president of the Pennsylvania Family Institute, said, “Taxpayers now in Pennsylvania will have no choice under this court ruling to fund abortions. And there are many, many millions of Pennsylvanians who think abortion is wrong. It’s the taking of an innocent human life and to force taxpayers who conscientiously object to abortion to then fund it is just plain wrong.”
Abortion-rights advocates pushed back, arguing abortion access is healthcare and a personal decision. Daily said, “This is a family issue. This is a personal issue. This is a bodily autonomy issue.”
Pro-life leaders also warned the ruling could have broader implications for other abortion-related laws. Geer said, “It is sweeping and there’s no question it’s judicial overreach.” He added, “If this ruling stands, it will invite attacks on every remaining pro-life safeguard that has been put into law by lawmakers at the behest to the people of Pennsylvania over decades.”
The case could still be appealed to the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. That decision lies with Republican Attorney General Dave Sunday. His office has not provided a response, but the Associated Press reported a spokesperson said the office is reviewing the decision and did not say whether it will appeal.
Johnstown, Pa. (WJAC) — The Rock and Roll Hall of Fame just released this year’s list of inductees, and a new clothing store just opened in the Johnstown Galleria.
What do these two things have in common?
If you grew up listening to 90’s hip-hop, then you’re probably familiar with the Wu-Tang Clan.
Wu-Tang Clan member opens clothing store in Pennsylvania (WJAC)
They said, “We’re in the building right now, we’re out in Johnstown making it happen, fashion and rapping, and Wu-Tang, you already know Wu-Tang is the witty, unpredictable talent and natural game. So, it’s all grassroots with us, man. We do everything from scratch.”
They’re being inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame this year, and Darryl Hill, aka Cappadonna, and manager Al “Heck” Felder are opening the Pillage, a clothing store in the Johnstown Galleria, selling apparel with a purpose.
Cappadonna said, “‘Cappadonna,’ that stands for ‘Consider All Poor People Acceptable, Don’t Oppress Nor Neglect Anyone,’ and we stand on that.”
They were introduced to mall owner Leo Karruli through Mustafa Curry, a childhood friend from New York, who owns a store on Main Street in Johnstown.
Heck said, “BK Styles, I’ve got to give a shout out to my boy, Mustafa. They’ve got some apparel down there, too. We’re all over. We’re spreading the word and we’re spreading the love.”
Wu-Tang Clan member opens clothing store in Pennsylvania (WJAC)
Their other clothing line, Angry Elephant, promotes being good stewards of the Earth, with a portion of the proceeds protecting the animals from poachers.
They said they believe in always putting God and family first.
Cappadonna said, “When you recognize the God in us, then you can see the God in you.”
They said they want kids to know that violence is not the answer, and it doesn’t cost anything to be kind.
Cappadonna said, “We just want to say that it’s nice to be important, but it’s even more important to be nice.”
A mother and her six children died when their Central Pennsylvania home exploded and caught on fire Sunday morning, state police said.
The explosion and fire happened at around 8:30 a.m. at a home on Long Run Road in Lamar Township, Clinton County, which is roughly 35 miles from State College. Crews arrived on the scene and found the home fully engulfed in flames, with the mother and her six children trapped.
State police identified the 34-year-old woman who died in the fire as Sarah B. Stolzfus. Her 11-year-old son, 10-year-old son, 8-year-old daughter, 6-year-old daughter, 5-year-old son and 3-year-old son also died in the blaze, according to state police.
A propane leak inside the house might’ve caused the explosion and fire, state police said. Propane tanks outside the home did not explode or contribute to the fire, according to state police.
The explosion and fire are under investigation by state police.
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