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Who will win the WNBA championship? Bold expert predictions as play resumes

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Who will win the WNBA championship? Bold expert predictions as play resumes

A month without basketball is over. Well, WNBA basketball that is.

After a thrilling end to the Paris Olympic basketball tournament, the gold-medal winning Americans have again dispersed across the country to their respective WNBA teams. The New York Liberty entered the All-Star/Olympic break with the league’s best record (21-4) and are looking to claim the franchise’s first title. After a bit of a slow start, the Las Vegas Aces are looming in fifth at 16-8 but could very well complete the WNBA’s first three-peat since the Houston Comets from 1997-2000. A number of other title contenders (the Connecticut Sun, Minnesota Lynx and Seattle Storm) are between the two 2023 finals participants with significant aspirations, and those on the bottom half of the standings are seeking to throw their hats in the mix.

Ahead of games resuming on Thursday, here are five predictions for the rest of the season.

Which team will make a second-half surge?

Sabreena Merchant: Minnesota. The Lynx have Napheesa Collier back, and they’ve been plus-11.4 per 100 possessions with her on the floor. Cheryl Reeve no longer has the weight of the world on her shoulders after Team USA won gold in Paris. Minnesota has had the league’s best defense all season, despite slumping in July in Collier’s absence. Now fully healthy, the Lynx can take advantage of the league’s easiest remaining schedule — a .441 opposing win percentage awaits, per Tankathon.

Ben Pickman: Will the Atlanta Dream finish in the top six of the standings? Probably not. But if you’re circling a franchise in the 7-12 range as a team that might look drastically different in the second half of the season, then keep a close eye on the Dream. Atlanta entered the All-Star/Olympic break 7-17 and in ninth place. The big reason to anticipate some positive change is that the time off gave the Dream’s best players time to heal. Star wing Rhyne Howard missed a month with a left ankle injury, and during Howard’s absence Atlanta won just a single game. She returned for the final game before the Olympic break, before helping the U.S. 3×3 team win bronze. Perhaps just as important, significant offseason acquisition Jordin Canada played only four games in the first half of the season due to two injuries. Her return could be an important jolt to Atlanta’s offense, which was 11th in offensive rating through the date of Howard’s injury on June 19. With Canada, Howard and Allisha Gray all playing together, Atlanta becomes a dangerous group to slow.

What is your biggest question?

Pickman: Will any Olympic stars who are not currently signed lift a franchise during the stretch run?

Perhaps this is a bit of recency bias, but I’m watching to see if Emma Meesseman (Belgium), Gabby Williams (France) or Marine Johannes (France) sign with a WNBA franchise to help during the second half. Despite the prioritization rule coming into effect this May, all three are still eligible to join the W if they so choose because of a bit of a CBA loophole. Of course, not all of the WNBA’s contenders have the roster space to sign one of those players, but all three could be difference-makers. Johannes has proven to make an impact in bursts when she came off the New York Liberty bench. Williams showed fearlessness and high-level playmaking during the Olympics, and she has produced in the WNBA with the Seattle Storm. Meesseman hasn’t played in the WNBA since 2022, but she has won the EuroLeague MVP in each of the past two seasons and was the best player not named A’ja Wilson during the Paris Olympics.

Merchant: Do the Aces have enough in the tank to three-peat?

A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Kelsey Plum each rank in the top 15 in minutes per game, plus they played 163, 115 and 90 minutes, respectively, during the Olympics (not counting the All-Star Game or other exhibitions). Las Vegas is tied for the most games remaining in the league at 16 and has the third-most difficult schedule. The Aces currently sit in fifth, so they have to leapfrog at least one team to get home-court advantage in the first round, and potentially two more for home-court in the WNBA semifinals. They already get every opponent’s best shot as the defending champions, and now they have to make up ground with a group that has been heavily worked during the first part of the season. It seems foolish to bet against Wilson and Co. after the successes of the past two years, but 2024 has been an extra challenge from the jump. On a neutral site with rest, I’d pick Las Vegas against any other team, but the conditions won’t be that favorable for the Aces going forward. Being able to come from behind after setting the pace last year will be a new task for this squad.

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Who will win Rookie of the Year?

Merchant: Caitlin Clark.

Perhaps no rookie has ever come into the league with such high expectations. Not only was she tasked with turning the Indiana Fever into a contender, but she carried the weight of the entire league on her shoulders. She has delivered in so many ways, helping the WNBA’s popularity rocket while steadily improving on the court. She leads the league in assists while pacing rookies in points per game. Clark also leads first-years in usage (24.8 percent) while posting the highest effective field-goal percentage (50.9 percent) among rookies who average at least 25 minutes in at least 18 appearances this season.

Clark’s individual numbers are hard to argue, but this isn’t a cut-and-dry case because Angel Reese has been more impactful for team success. Reese has a plus-3.4 net rating while Clark lags behind at minus-6.8. Furthermore, the Sky are 24.9 points per 100 possessions better when Reese plays, and the Fever are essentially neutral whether Clark is on or off the court. However, the team context isn’t enough to overcome what Clark has accomplished at the toughest position and while at the top of the scouting report.

Pickman: Caitlin Clark.

It feels like forever ago that Clark last played in a WNBA game. But lest anyone forget that in her final game before the multi-week hiatus, Clark set a new single-game WNBA record with 19 assists. Having to play 11 games in 20 days, Clark and the Fever got off to a slower start than many on the outside expected entering this season. But since Indiana’s early-season sprint, which ended June 2, Indiana is sixth in net rating and Clark’s net rating is nearly 16 points better per 100 possessions. She leads the league in assists, ranks third in 3-pointers and seventh in total points, all while playing the second-most minutes of anyone across the WNBA. More than any single counting stat, if she is able to continue to improve on her first half the way she did through the months of June and July, then Indiana could also become the kind of opponent no other franchise wants to face in the playoffs.

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Who will win MVP?

Pickman: A’ja Wilson.

She should win MVP and she will win MVP. The biggest question through the first half of the season was whether it will be a unanimous vote. Jonquel Jones and Elena Delle Donne have come very close in recent years, but with a second half to the season as strong as Wilson’s first, that could be another aspect she adds to her legacy this summer.

Merchant: A’ja Wilson.

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Exactly what Ben said. The WNBA can start creating this trophy for Wilson right now as she joins the three-timers club of Lauren Jackson, Lisa Leslie and Sheryl Swoopes.

Who will win the WNBA championship?

Merchant: I was burned by picking New York at the start of the 2023 regular season and at the start of the 2023 finals, yet here I am, tempted by the Liberty again. They’ve had a superlative first half of the season and have the depth to stay fresh over the final month heading into the playoffs. Las Vegas retains the head coaching advantage, and the Aces have the best player in the world, but New York might just have the better team this time around.

Pickman: The Liberty have been the WNBA’s best team thus far, with Sabrina Ionescu’s continued ascension, Jones’ dominance and the emergence of viable reserve options all helping New York jump to a fast start. But the Aces haven’t done enough to sway me from my preseason title pick. Sure, the eight losses are the most they’ve had since 2022, but with Chelsea Gray in the starting lineup, Las Vegas is 8-2 with a plus-12.3 net rating, a mark slightly ahead of the Liberty. Wilson is better and so is Jackie Young. The Aces might not have home-court throughout this postseason, but I’m not convinced that will matter either.

(Photo of A’ja Wilson: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)

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ESPN analyst Paul Finebaum questions Trump’s college sports reform meeting as potential ‘circus’

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ESPN analyst Paul Finebaum questions Trump’s college sports reform meeting as potential ‘circus’

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President Donald Trump will host a White House roundtable regarding college athletics reform later this week.

The panel is expected to include prominent coaches, college sports and pro sports league commissioners, and other professional athletes, according to OutKick.

The group will meet March 6 to examine solutions to key challenges, including NCAA authority; name, image and likeness issues (NIL); collective bargaining; and governance concerns. 

 

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President Donald Trump holds a football presented to him during a ceremony to present the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy to the US Naval Academy football team, the Navy Midshipmen, in the East Room of the White House on April 15, 2025 in Washington, D.C. (BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images)

The meeting Friday will include big names like Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Adam Silver and Tiger Woods. Trump has been adamant about “saving college sports,” even signing an executive order setting new restrictions on payments to college athletes back in July.

However, ESPN college analyst Paul Finebaum, who has previously hinted at a congressional run as a Republican, remains a bit skeptical.

“The easiest thing, guys, is just to say this is ridiculous,” Finebaum said to Greg McElroy and Cole Cubelic on WJOX. “And I read the other day, ‘Why is Nick Saban going?’ Why is anybody going? The bottom line is this. If something doesn’t happen very quickly, and I mean in the next short period of time, we’re talking about weeks, not years, then this thing could blow up.

“However it came about, I’m in favor of. The question now becomes, with some of the most powerful people in Washington in the same room, including the most powerful person in the country, can anything get done, or will it be a circus? Will it be just another show?”

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U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with former Alabama Crimson Tide football coach Nick Saban as Trump takes the stage to address graduating students at Coleman Coliseum at the University of Alabama on May 01, 2025 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Trump’s order prohibits athletes from receiving pay-to-play payments from third-party sources. However, the order did not impose any restrictions on NIL payments to college athletes by third-party sources.

A House vote on the SCORE Act (Student Compensation and Opportunity through Rights and Endorsements), which would regulate name, image, and likeness deals, was canceled shortly before it was set to be brought to the floor in December.

The White House endorsed the act, but three Republicans, Byron Donalds, Fla., Scott Perry, Pa., and Chip Roy, Texas, voted with Democrats not to bring the act to the floor. Democrats have largely opposed the bill, urging members of the House to vote “no.”

President Donald Trump looks on before the college football game between the US Army and Navy at the M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland, on Dec. 13, 2025.  (Alex WROBLEWSKI / AFP via Getty Images)

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The SCORE Act would give the NCAA a limited antitrust exemption in hopes of protecting the NCAA from potential lawsuits over eligibility rules and would prohibit athletes from becoming employees of their schools. It prohibits schools from using student fees to fund NIL payments.

Fox News’ Chantz Martin and Ryan Gaydos contributed to this report.

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Lakers hope comeback win over Pelicans gives the team a timely boost

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Lakers hope comeback win over Pelicans gives the team a timely boost
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Lakers center Jaxson Hayes falls after Pelicans forward Zion Williamson commits an offensive foul as Lakers guard Austin Reaves watches at at Crypto.com Arena on Tuesday.

(Allen J. Schaben/Los Angeles Times)

Matching the physicality of Pelicans forwards Zion Williamson and Saddiq Bey was on the top of the Lakers’ scouting report. But the task is easier said than done.

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Reaves admitted to being “terrified” of stepping in front of a driving Williamson to draw a charge. The 6-foot-6, 284-pound Pelicans forward is just as physical as he is athletic, creating a fearsome combination for defenders. Healthy for the first time in two seasons, Williamson led the Pelicans with 24 points on 10-for-18 shooting.

“We haven’t seen somebody like that in a long time, right?” Smart said. “[With] his ability. But [being] willing to put your body there, take a charge, take an elbow to the face, box him out, go vertical, is definitely something that you got to be willing to do, and not everybody’s willing to do it. And that’s the difference in the game.”

Center Jaxson Hayes was up to the task. He absorbed a Williamson elbow in the fourth quarter and ended up in the front row of the stands holding his jaw. But the knock was worth it for the offensive foul that helped maintain the Lakers’ 14-0 run that quickly erased the Pelicans’ eight-point lead. The scoring streak started immediately after Hayes subbed back into the game with 7:20 remaining after he scored on his first possession, cutting to the basket for a dunk off an assist from Doncic.

Hayes had eight points, six rebounds and two blocks, playing nearly 23 minutes off the bench in his biggest workload as a substitute since Jan. 20 against Denver. After playing with Hayes in New Orleans during the center’s first two years in the league, Redick lauded the seven-year pro’s improvement. Hayes is sinking touch shots around the rim now. He has improved his decision making in the pocket. After getting benched for his defensive lapses last season, Hayes has impressed coaches with his consistent ability to stay vertical while protecting the rim. And he still brings the same trademark athleticism that made him the eighth overall pick in 2019.

“He consistently injects energy into the group when he runs the floor, blocks a shot, or he gets those dunks,” Redick said.

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Eileen Gu reflects on decision to leave Team USA for China: ‘A lot of people just don’t understand’

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Eileen Gu reflects on decision to leave Team USA for China: ‘A lot of people just don’t understand’

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Eileen Gu released a statement on social media Monday, reflecting on her controversial decision to compete for Team China despite being born and raised in the U.S. 

Gu’s statement tied the decision back to her passion for promoting women’s sports, and encouraging young girls to pursue sports. 

“I gave my first speech on women in sports and title IX when I was 11 years old. I talked about being the only girl on my ski team, and, despite attending an all-girls’ school from Monday through Friday, becoming best friends with my teammates on the weekends through the common language of sport,” Gu wrote on Instagram. 

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Silver medalist Eileen Gu of China poses for photos after the awarding ceremony of the freestyle skiing women’s freeski big air event at the Milan-Cortina 2026 Olympic Winter Games in Livigno, Italy, Feb. 16, 2026. (Photo by Wang Peng/Xinhua via Getty Images) (Wang Peng/Xinhua via Getty Images)

“At the same time, I was made painfully aware of the lack of representation – at age 9, I felt that I was somehow representing all women every time I stepped in the terrain park. Landing tricks was about more than progression … it was about disproving the derisive implication of what it meant to ‘ski like a girl.’”

Gu went on to express gratitude for the one season in which she did compete for the U.S. 

“When I was 15, I announced my decision to compete for China. At the time, I had spent one season on the US team, and had been lucky enough to meet my heroes in person. I am forever grateful for that season, and continue to maintain a close relationship with the team. I had spent every summer in China since I was 8 setting up summer camps on trampoline and dry slope for kids and adults, ranging from 7 to 47 years old, so I knew the industry was tiny. I felt like I knew everyone,” she added. 

“Skiing for Team China meant the opportunity to uplift others through the universal culture of sport, and to introduce freeskiing to hundreds of millions of people who had never heard of it, especially with the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics around the corner.”

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Gu’s statement concluded by acknowledging that certain people “don’t understand” her decision to compete for China over the U.S., while insisting the choice maximized the impact she would have. 

“I can look back now, at 22, and tell 12 year old Eileen that there are now terrain parks full of little girls, who will never doubt their place in the sport. I can tell 15 year old me that there are now millions of girls who have started skiing since then, in China and worldwide,” Gu wrote. 

“A lot of people won’t understand or believe that I made a decision to create the greatest amount of positive impact on the world stage that I could, at this age, given my interests and passions. Three golds and six medals later, I can confidently say was once a dream is now a reality.”

Gu has become a target for global criticism this Olympics for her decision to represent China while remaining silent on the country’s alleged human rights abuses.

In an interview with Time magazine, Gu was asked her thoughts on China’s alleged persecution of Uyghurs and other Turkic Muslim minorities in Xinjiang. 

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“I haven’t done the research. I don’t think it’s my business. I’m not going to make big claims on my social media,” Gu answered.

“I’m just more of a skeptic when it comes to data in general. … So, it’s not like I can read an article and be like, ‘Oh, well, this must be the truth.’ I need to have a ton of evidence. I need to maybe go to the place, maybe talk to 10 primary source people who are in a location and have experienced life there.

“Then I need to go see images. I need to listen to recordings. I need to think about how history affects it. Then I need to read books on how politics affects it. This is a lifelong search. It’s irresponsible to ask me to be the mouthpiece for any agenda.”

More controversy surrounding Gu erupted after The Wall Street Journal reported that Gu and another American-born athlete who now competes for China, were paid a combined $6.6 million by the Beijing Municipal Sports Bureau in 2025.

Gu is the highest-paid Winter Olympics athlete in the world, making an estimated $23 million in 2025 alone due to partnerships with Chinese companies, including the Bank of China and western companies. 

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Her alignment with China prompted criticism from many Americans this Olympics, including Vice President J.D. Vance. 

“I certainly think that someone who grew up in the United States of America who benefited from our education system, from the freedoms and liberties that makes this country a great place, I would hope they want to compete with the United States of America,” Vance said in an interview on Fox News’ “The Story with Martha MacCallum.”

Later, when Gu was asked if she feels “like a bit of a punching bag for a certain strand of American politics at the moment,” she said she does. 

“I do,” she said. “So many athletes compete for a different country. … People only have a problem with me doing it because they kind of lump China into this monolithic entity, and they just hate China. So, it’s not really about what they think it’s about.

“And, also, because I win. Like, if I wasn’t doing well, I think that they probably wouldn’t care as much, and that’s OK for me. People are entitled to their opinions.”

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Silver medalist Eileen Gu of China attends the awarding ceremony of the freestyle skiing women’s freeski big air event at the Milan-Cortina 2026 Olympic Winter Games in Livigno, Italy, Feb. 16, 2026.  (Hongxiang/Xinhua via Getty Images)

Gu has claimed she was “physically assaulted” for the decision.  

“The police were called. I’ve had death threats. I’ve had my dorm robbed,” Gu told The Athletic

“I’ve gone through some things as a 22-year-old that I really think no one should ever have to endure, ever.”

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