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Analysis | Biden’s arguments for staying in the 2024 race, parsed

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Analysis | Biden’s arguments for staying in the 2024 race, parsed


There are surely good reasons for President Biden to resist pressure to drop out of his 2024 reelection race. They’re just not always the ones he and his team put forward.

In recent days, Biden and his campaign have offered a number of justifications for why he shouldn’t cave to that pressure and pass the torch to someone else. Often, the suggestion is that he’s best-positioned to take on Donald Trump or even the only one who can defeat him — despite Biden’s poor poll numbers. Even more often, it involves a novel reading of the electoral landscape that bears little resemblance to the available data.

So as Democrats continue their lengthy internal debate, we thought it worth parsing some of the arguments put forward by the incumbent and his team.

“All the data shows that the average Democrat out there who voted — 14 million of them that voted for me — still want me to be the nominee, number one. … I wanted to make sure I was right, that the average voter out there still wanted Joe Biden. And I’m confident they do.”

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“I’m getting so frustrated by the elites … in the party who — they know so much more.” (Monday MSNBC “Morning Joe” interview)

There is clearly an effort afoot to pitch this as powerful people trying to push Biden out. But it’s not just the “elites” who want Biden to step aside, nor is it clear that the “average” Democratic voter wants him to stay. Indeed, as much as half of Biden’s base wants him out, according to multiple polls, and it appears the average Democratic voter is straddling the fence.

In a post-debate CNN poll, Democratic-leaning voters said 56 percent to 43 percent that their party would have a better chance with “someone else.” A New York Times-Siena College poll showed Democrats split almost evenly on whether their party should have a different nominee. In a CBS News-YouGov poll, 46 percent of Democrats said Biden shouldn’t be running, versus 54 percent who said he should.

Yes, polls can be off. But even if these are off by a few points, that’s a huge proportion of the base that wants someone else — even long after the primaries ended with Biden as the presumptive nominee.

“Number two, remember all this talk about how I don’t have the Black support? Come on. Give me a break. Come with me. Watch. Watch.” (“Morning Joe”)

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It would be shocking if Biden didn’t win a strong majority of Black voters. But the real question is how much support he bleeds among this extremely important and often overwhelmingly Democratic group. And virtually every poll shows him struggling, relative to past Democrats.

Democrats haven’t taken less than 80 percent of the Black vote since at least 1972, and Biden won them 92 percent to 8 percent in 2020, according to the Pew Research Center’s Validated Voter survey.

A large-sample May poll from the Pew Research Center showed Biden ceding about twice as many Black voters — 18 percent — in a head-to-head matchup with Trump. That poll showed more than half of Black voters wanted to replace Biden in the race.

“The New York Times had me down 10 points before the debate — nine now, or whatever the hell it is. … New York Times had me behind before anything having to do with this [debate] — had me behind 10 points. Ten points, they had me behind. Nothing’s changed substantially since the debate in the New York Times poll.” (Friday ABC News interview)

The Times-Siena poll just before the debate actually had Biden trailing by between three and seven points, not 10 points, depending on whether you include third-party candidates and whether you focus on likely or registered voters.

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(Indeed, no high-quality poll this year — as compiled by FiveThirtyEight — has shown Biden trailing Donald Trump by double digits.)

Biden’s deficit in the Times-Siena poll grew after the debate to between five and eight points, depending on how you slice it. The shifts in this and other polls have generally been within the margin of error, but there have been enough polls showing a small shift against Biden to logically assume there has been a shift.

Other polls since then also suggest voters are even more concerned about Biden’s age and acuity and view him less positively. His deficit in the national FiveThirtyEight average of polls has grown by about two points since the debate, and his average approval rating has hit an all-time low of about 37 percent.

“Pres Joe Biden is the only person standing between us and another Donald Trump term …” (Biden spokesman T.J. Ducklo on Saturday)

While not explicitly saying that only Biden can beat Trump, that has been the tenor of much of the pushback. Biden and his allies will often note that he’s the only candidate who has actually beaten Trump (in 2020), for instance.

For what it’s worth, Biden said in December that “probably 50” Democrats were capable of defeating Trump. Months earlier, Biden said that he wasn’t the “only” one who could beat Trump and protect democracy but that he was “best-positioned” to do it. (Trump, it bears noting, has been involved in a total of only three competitive campaigns, including the 2016 primaries and general election.)

As for whether Biden is best-positioned? The limited polling we have shows other Democrats performing similarly to Biden in some cases and better in a couple of cases. Michelle Obama leads Trump by double digits in a Reuters-Ipsos poll, and Vice President Harris did slightly better than Biden in the CNN poll (though worse than Biden in other polls).

And many other potential candidates are far less well-known, which often depresses poll numbers. That leaves open the possibility that voters could find them more compelling than a president with a 37 percent approval rating.

The fact that many Democratic Senate candidates are currently running better than Biden in their states would surely suggest that someone else could at least theoretically be stronger in the presidential race. Of course, that’s just in theory.

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“I don’t care what those big names [liberals and Democrats suggesting he drop out] think. They were wrong in 2020. They were wrong in 2022 about the red wave. They’re wrong in 2024. … Not only were they wrong, I said they were wrong beforehand. … I was not surprised; I predicted it.” (“Morning Joe”)

Biden was counted out by some in the 2020 primaries, after losing the first three states. (His big win in South Carolina put him on course for victory.) But he was the widely acknowledged favorite in the general election throughout. And general elections are more predictable, because of partisanship.

As for 2022, while plenty of analysts and politicians floated the possibility of a “red wave,” that generally didn’t come from liberals and Democrats. And high-quality polling was not as troubling for Democrats then as it is now. Indeed, predictions of a red wave largely ignored the quite-accurate polls.

“I carried an awful lot of the Democrats the last time I ran in 2020.” (ABC News)

Biden did over-perform most key Democratic Senate candidates in the 2020 election — 8 of 10, to be exact — making it plausible that his performance helped them.

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There is some question about how much of that was voters just not liking Trump, but exit polls showed a slight majority of voters (52 percent) had a favorable opinion of Biden at the time.

That said, Biden’s image is in a far different place now; his favorable rating is about 38 percent. (Favorability is more of a personal measure, while approval pertains to job performance.)

“But if any of these guys don’t think I should run, run against me. Go ahead. Announce for president. Challenge me at the convention.” (“Morning Joe”)

There is no plausible path for anyone else at the convention if Biden doesn’t drop out. But that’s not because the base doesn’t want it, necessarily; it’s because the vast majority of the delegates are pledged to Biden after his performance in the primaries.

“The voters — and the voters alone — decide the nominee of the Democratic Party. How can we stand for democracy in our nation if we ignore it in our own party? I cannot do that. I will not do that.” (Monday letter to fellow Democrats)

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It’s valid to point out that Biden was the overwhelming choice of Democratic primary voters. Big-name Democrats could have challenged him. They didn’t, for a variety of reasons, and he won big.

Having delegates pick the new nominee or coronating Harris is clearly less of a democratic process.

But the idea that urging him to drop out is ignoring democracy is a bit of a stretch. His allies aren’t talking about delegates overturning the results; they are talking about persuading Biden to willingly drop out in light of new evidence raising concerns about his ability to campaign. And voters who were reluctant to vote for him in the primaries didn’t have a real, viable alternative.





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Washington Syrah Is the State’s Best-Kept Secret

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Washington Syrah Is the State’s Best-Kept Secret


This story is from an installment of The Oeno Files, our weekly insider newsletter to the world of fine wine. Sign up here.

While Washington State has become well known for its Cabernet Sauvignon and Bordeaux-style blends in recent years, it is also home to many producers making outstanding Syrah. With just a 40-year history of cultivation in the state, Syrah is now the second most-produced red wine there as well as its best-kept secret. First planted in Washington in 1986, some early releases were treated like Cabernet Sauvignon with a lot of new oak and one-size-fits-all production method, but over time a broad spectrum of expressions has arisen among the state’s Syrahs.

Elsewhere in the U.S.A. it might seem like wineries are holding back the most exciting bottles for their neighbors, but Washington Syrah is more widely available than one might think, especially on restaurant tables. Landry’s Inc.—which operates more than 500 restaurants across the country including steakhouses such as Morton’s, Del Frisco’s, and the Palm—serves more than a dozen Washington Syrahs and a wide range of Syrah blends from the state. Scott Tarwater, corporate director of wine and special events, describes Washington Syrah as “a rugged, mountain man, unshaven, but worldly, down to earth, and plain spoken.” While he enjoys it for its savory character, he also likes that it is full of jammy notes such as boysenberry, black raspberry, and pomegranate alongside hints of ripened olives and pipe tobacco.

One of the drivers of quality in the last 20 years is the adoption of Old World techniques like stem inclusion and the use of concrete vessels, large‑format oak casks, and neutral oak barrels to let the fruit do the talking. Improved vineyard techniques have allowed for site expression to become clearer as well, with the Rocks District and Royal Slope showing savory and mineral characteristics, Red Mountain and Horse Heaven Hills bringing out more power and ripeness, and Yakima Valley showcasing a mix of the two styles.

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Matt Reynvaan, founder and winemaker of R|A Family Wines, makes his JDA Project Syrah from a vineyard in the Rocks District that is defined by ancient riverbed soils layered with dense cobblestone. “These stones retain and radiate heat, lending intensity, structure, and unmistakable minerality to the fruit,” he explains. Replanted in 2020, the vineyard was designed with clonal diversity and precision farming practices tailored block by block. “Syrah is interplanted with small amounts of Viognier, and each section contributes a unique dimension, from power and structure to elegance and purity, resulting in a wine that is both complex and site driven,” Reynvaan says.

DeLille’s vineyards

DeLille

At Two Vintners, winemaker and partner Morgan Lee produces four different Syrahs including a Columbia Valley cuvée, a Rocks District bottling and single-vineyard expressions from Horse Heaven Hills and Yakima Valley, working with 13 distinct vineyards across six AVAs. “Each patch of dirt puts a stamp of individuality on the wine,” he says. “The beauty of Syrah is that it absorbs its surroundings like nothing else. It is a chameleon. It is so exciting to taste these individual parcels side by side and see how thrillingly different they are from one another.” Leaning heavily into a Northern Rhône style in his vineyard sourcing, Lee also employs Rhône techniques like native-yeast fermentation and whole-cluster pressing.

Washington’s first Syrah was planted in the Red Willow Vineyard in the foothills of the Cascades in the far northwest portion of the Yakima Valley by Mike Sauer in 1986, and winemaker Nick Bernstein utilizes fruit from that original block for DeLille Red Willow Syrah. “The Syrah here thrives on steep slopes of poor volcanic soils and creates powerful wine with deep concentration,” Bernstein says. In addition to that and DeLille’s Grand Ciel estate vineyard on Red Mountain, Bernstein also buys fruit from Boushey Vineyard, whose proprietor Dick Boushey has been a prominent grower for 45 years. This cooler site allows for more hang time, flavor development, and acid retention, leading to an earthier Syrah with dark fruit notes.

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The wide diversity of Syrah can be seen in Liminal’s two offerings, High Canyon Syrah and Block 16 Syrah, which come from blocks in the WeatherEye Vineyard in the Red Mountain AVA that are about 500 yards apart but differ in aspect, elevation, and clonal selection. Liminal winemaker and partner Chris Peterson says the High Canyon block has elements of black fruits, minerals, and cured olive that remind him of Côte-Rôtie. “This is why we co-ferment with about 4 percent Viognier and choose the specific barrels to age it in and accentuate these aspects,” he explains. Meanwhile, the Block 16 exhibits the “wild herb, cured meats, and firm structure” characteristics that recall Cornas, so he ages it in 500-liter puncheons, with a style of new barrel “that shows off this more feral side.”

One of the newest additions to the Evergreen State scene is Dossier Wine Collective, whose head winemaker Billo Naravane crafts its flagship Syrah with an eye on the Northern Rhône, especially Côte-Rôtie and Cornas. Sourced from three vineyards, it offers the aromatic elegance and finesse of Côte-Rôtie alongside the structure, focus, and depth of Cornas. “Our use of concrete during fermentation is intentional. Concrete preserves purity and freshness while lending the wine a tighter, more focused profile, a hallmark we admire in many traditional Northern Rhône Syrahs,” Naravane says.

On the east coast, diners at JF Restaurant’s eateries can enjoy Syrah from Walla Walla and Columbia Valley. Beverage director and partner Amy Racine tells clients unfamiliar with the style that “Washington Syrah is a crossover between the States and Rhône Valley. It has a savory, peppery backbone similar to the northern Rhône and a ripe and juicy fruit you can find in the States.” Calling it “a category that rewards curiosity,” she tells Robb Report, “Most guests come in with a fixed idea of what Syrah is supposed to taste like, usually a Rhône reference point, and Washington Syrah surprises them by being a little familiar yet entirely its own thing.”


Do you want access to rare and outstanding reds from Napa Valley? Join the Robb Report 672 Wine Club today.





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Divorces granted July 2-8 in Washington, Benton counties | Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette

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Divorces granted July 2-8 in Washington, Benton counties | Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette


The following divorces granted were recorded July 2-8 in the Benton and Washington county clerks’ offices:

BENTON COUNTY

25-1094. Heather Jones v. Michael Mazzarisi

25-1993. Sarah Waddle v. Brandon Waddle

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26-46. Samantha Hines v. Garrett Hines

26-266. Donna Boyd v. Russell Boyd

26-329. Tara Whitwam v. Brett Whitwam

26-354. April Timboe v. Matthew Timboe

26-397. Troy Hull v. Kaley McManamon

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26-419. Mark Hagel v. Michelle Hagel

26-437. Deborah Luper v. Donald Luper

26-470. Amanda Russell v. Christopher Russell

26-561. Audrey Mosher v. Dustin Mosher

26-562. Jacob King v. Ashley King

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26-649. Chris Edwards v. Sara Edwards

26-664. David Carpenter v. Hannah Holtrey

26-774. Lauren Armfield v. Alexander Armfield

26-775. Sandra Saldana v. Luis Saldana

26-785. Maritza Campos v. Luis De Los Santos

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26-798. Darell Shepard v. Rachel Lipscomb

26-802. Jeffery Nicholas v. Tracy Nicholas

26-809. Alicia Moreland v. Travis Moreland

26-814. Mellisa Dugger v. Matthew Crowne

26-817. Sabra Utting v. Derek Utting

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26-825. Laura Wortman v. Brian Wortman

26-827. Laura Dean v. Seth Dean

26-845. William Austen v. Krystal Austen

26-846. Janine Robin v. Henry Robin

WASHINGTON COUNTY

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24-472. Breayonda Bendickson v. Zackery Thompson

25-1333. Joshua Stephens v. Tiffany Pershall

25-1475. Jacqueline Lybrand v. Zachary Lybrand

25-1720. Jennifer McMahon v. Timothy McMahon

26-10. Janiky Rosario Madera v. Angel Ortiz Fuentes

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26-225. Carol Kaufman v. Charles Axtell

26-268. Elizabeth Lasiter v. Prashanth Kumaresan

26-367. Shawn Harp v. Angela Harp

26-414. Patricia Johnson v. Robert Pritchard

26-518. Francisco Ramirez v. Nicole Franz

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26-633. Debra Andrews v. Randy Brown

26-695. Jorge Azahares v. Dianelis Rodriguez



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Hulking four-star Arizona OL commits to Cal over Washington football

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Hulking four-star Arizona OL commits to Cal over Washington football


The Washington Huskies saw one of their most hotly contested offensive line targets in the 2027 class go elsewhere on Saturday afternoon when four-star offensive lineman DaJohn Yarborough announced his pledge to the California Golden Bears

The 6-foot-5, 340-pound product of Basha High School in Arizona, who is ranked as the nation’s No. 426 overall prospect and No. 25 interior offensive lineman by the 247Sports Composite, picked coach Tosh Lupoi and the Golden Bears out of a final four that also included Florida State, Mississippi State, and UW.

Although his junior year was cut short due to a fractured ankle, Fisch and offensive line coach Michael Switzer kept up a strong relationship with the hulking prospect, who has the size, physicality, and skill set the pair looks for from early contributors up front. However,

“The big man slides smoothly in pass protection and balances his weight well, always finding himself on the winning end of collisions with defenders,” Huskies Wire’s Alex Katson wrote in an evaluation of his film. “With such prototypical size and technique, Yarborough profiles as a player who could find himself in the NFL rather quickly with the right coaching staff during his time in college.”

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As Washington continues to build up its offensive line for the rigors of the Big Ten, Yarborough would have been viewed as a promising building block alongside Freshman All-American John Mills, former five-star Kodi Greene, and former four-star Champ Taulealea, who should make up the core of Switzer’s unit in 2027.

While the Huskies had consistently been viewed among the top suitors for Yarborough’s services, but Lupoi’s staff has shown early that it can make a big impact quickly on recruits all over the West. Without Yarborough, Washington’s 2027 class consists of three offensive linemen: four-star interior prospect Gecova Doyal, four-star center Reis Russell, and three-star offensive tackle Tye Kennedy.



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