The Lynx need to live and die by the three-pointer far more than Connecticut does, as the Sun’s style of play is more reliable on a day-to-day basis. Connecticut plays a slow game and pounds the ball inside to their several forwards who can all score around the rim, or grab offensive rebounds for second-chance putbacks. Connecticut has been consistent all season, they have had the same starting lineup for all 19 games, and each starter is averaging double figures. They share the ball well, while dominating the paint, and that type of play travels well. Minnesota lost the first game against Connecticut and only shot 4-21 from deep as the Sun’s defense was able to extend their defense and close out on shooters. The same will happen here as Connecticut is the best defensive team in the league and will keep this close enough to cover or win.

Take Connecticut with the points.

These are the top two defenses in the WNBA in terms of points allowed per game. Connecticut plays at a slow pace by choice, as their lineup is littered with forwards who can score around the rim including Bonner, Thomas, and Jones. The Sun will not change their strategy, as their advantage in this game is in the post. The Lynx like to shoot from the outside, but they shot 19% from three the last time they played Connecticut. These two teams are also the best defenses in the league guarding the three point shot. Opponents only shoot 27.9% from deep when playing against Minnesota, and 29.3% against Connecticut. These teams will grind it out on the defensive end, as Connecticut takes their time offensively, leading to an under.

Take the under.