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North Carolina’s battle for unaffiliated voting bloc challenging — here’s the key

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North Carolina’s battle for unaffiliated voting bloc challenging — here’s the key


(The Center Square) – North Carolina’s population has more than doubled the last 20 years, its voter registration rolls swelling by more than 2.4 million along with it, yet Republicans and Democrats have just marginal gains.

Those signing up unaffiliated, on the other hand, are now the largest voting bloc.

Quite a journey from trailing Democrats 47.6%-17.7% in share midway of the Bush administration.

Two experts of state politics and campaigns agree there’s more to the story than sheer numbers.

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And strategies in the next 140 days should be chess rather than checkers.

“In some research I’ve conducted with Michael Bitzer, Whitney Ross Manzo and Susan Roberts, we found that unaffiliated voters are best understood as ‘unmoored voters,’” Chris Cooper, a political science and public affairs professor at Western Carolina University, told The Center Square on Wednesday.

“They tend to stay near their partisan docks, but, with nothing tying them there, a large change in political weather may send them in unpredictable directions.”

Reliability in turnout is also in play with the group.

“The rise of unaffiliated voters makes the political landscape a little less predictable for campaigns,” Andy Jackson, director of the Civitas Center for Public Integrity, told The Center Square on Wednesday.

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Two experts of state politics and campaigns agree there’s more to the story than sheer numbers. Anadolu via Getty Images

“It forces them to rely on other data, such as which primaries unaffiliated voters vote in or what media they consume, to predict which party they are more likely to support. It forces campaigns to spend more effort and money on their get-out-the-vote operations.”

Jackson, like Cooper, said unaffiliated voters “behave like weak partisans.”

He estimates 10% as truly independent, meaning evenly dividing support of parties.

In 20 years, since Jan. 1, 2004, the state’s population has increased 26.7%. 

Through Saturday, the voter registrations had changed significantly as well – the more than 5 million then split 47.6% Democrats, 34.4% Republicans and 17.7% unaffiliated, to now more than 7.4 million split 37.2% unaffiliated, 31.9% Democrats and 30% Republicans.

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A person enters to vote on Super Tuesday at First Ward Creative Academy, Mecklenburg County Precinct 13 on March 5, 2024 in Charlotte, North Carolina
“The rise of unaffiliated voters makes the political landscape a little less predictable for campaigns,” Andy Jackson, director of the Civitas Center for Public Integrity, told The Center Square on Wednesday. Getty Images

In volume number, while the state’s population more than doubled in 20 years to better than 10.8 million, Democrats have just 11,854 more registrations – and 220,040 less than the day Joe Biden was elected president.

Republicans are up more than 525,000 over the two decades, and are down 25,573 since Nov. 7, 2020.

The voters choosing unaffiliated, meanwhile, have grown from fewer than 900,000 to more than 2.8 million.

During the Biden administration, the number has risen 353,566.

The bloc grew 387,096 in the four years between elections won and lost by former President Donald Trump.

As the Trump v. Biden rematch nears, that just shy of three-quarters of a million, 6.8% of the total population, and 1 in 10 of all registered voters.

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Jackson notes 2020 turnout was 69.8% of unaffiliated, 81.6% of Republicans and 75.1% of Democrats.

Trump, as every Republican presidential candidate has for 60 years except Gerald Ford in 1976 and John McCain in 2008, won North Carolina in 2016 and 2020.

Consensus of polling just over four months away, including after his felony conviction, puts him at about a 5% lead.

Republicans also have three-fifths majorities in each chamber of the General Assembly.

But the governor’s office has had just three Republicans since 1900.

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Polling indicates Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson and Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein are in a dead heat as the summer temps begin to bake.

Jackson said part of the reason for lower turnout by unaffiliated voters “is that they tend to be younger than partisans, and younger people vote less often. So, campaigns that plan to win by courting unaffiliated voters have their work cut out for them.”

And that means, Cooper adds, “The battle over unaffiliated voters is therefore, the key to victory in North Carolina, not because they are universally persuadable, but because small nudges in mobilization may be the key to victory.”



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Eastern North Carolina law enforcement agencies warn residents about growing scam threats

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Eastern North Carolina law enforcement agencies warn residents about growing scam threats


Law enforcement agencies across eastern North Carolina are warning residents to stay alert as several scams continue targeting seniors, bank customers, and other vulnerable individuals.

The Halifax County Sheriff’s Office recently issued a warning after a suspicious check was mailed to a person living with dementia. Deputies say scammers often target older adults by sending fraudulent checks in hopes the recipient will deposit the money and become entangled in a financial scam.

Officials are urging families to regularly check on elderly relatives and remind them never to cash or deposit unexpected checks. Residents are encouraged to contact their bank or law enforcement before taking any action if they receive suspicious financial documents.

Meanwhile, the Onslow County Sheriff’s Office says a jury duty scam is resurfacing throughout the county. In these cases, scammers pose as law enforcement officers or court officials and claim a person missed jury duty or failed to appear in court. Victims are told a warrant has been issued for their arrest and are pressured to send money to avoid being taken into custody.

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Deputies warn that scammers often use official-looking documents, government seals, and even the names of real law enforcement officers to make the scheme appear legitimate. The sheriff’s office stresses that deputies will never call, email, or text someone demanding payment.

The Pitt County Sheriff’s Office is also warning residents about a call forwarding scam designed to steal banking verification calls and security codes. Investigators say scammers contact victims claiming there is suspicious activity on their bank account and instruct them to dial special star codes followed by a phone number.

By doing so, victims unknowingly activate call forwarding, allowing bank security calls and verification codes to be redirected to the scammer’s phone.

Authorities recommend never dialing star codes at the request of a stranger, never sharing passwords or security codes, and always contacting banks directly using trusted phone numbers.

Law enforcement agencies say a common theme in many scams is creating a sense of urgency and fear. Officials encourage residents to slow down, verify information independently, and report suspicious activity before sending money or sharing personal information.

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Audit finds more than $47M in fraudulent unemployment payments in NC over 5-year period

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Audit finds more than M in fraudulent unemployment payments in NC over 5-year period


RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) — More than $47 million in fraudulent unemployment payments went out the door in North Carolina over a five-year period, according to a new state audit that also flagged delays in getting benefits to claimants.

The State Auditor’s Office found the North Carolina Division of Employment Security distributed $47.2 million in fraudulent unemployment payments between 2021 and 2025.

“North Carolina had an abysmal rate of recovery and issuing payments that were not appropriate,” State Auditor Dave Boliek said. “Many of them were outright fraudulent.”

According to Boliek, NCDES has recovered about $12.2 million of those funds, but the rest is likely gone forever.

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“Once you have a fraudulent transaction and [those funds] are out the door, timing is important to recovering those funds,” he said. “You need to get on it quick in order to get that money back. Otherwise, tracking those dollars down is virtually impossible at this point.”

NCDES Assistant Secretary Marc-Antoine Keith pushed back, saying they are working to recover the money, no matter how long it takes.

“We’re going to be recovering it this year, next year, five years from now,” he said. “We don’t have a timeline. This is not something that we just write off and say, ‘You’re good.’ We’re in the heart of it right now.”

NCDES officials also noted the fraud identified in the audit amounts to less than 1% of the more than $5 billion in unemployment benefits paid during the same period.

According to NCDES, roughly $40 million of the fraudulent payments happened during the COVID-19 pandemic when unemployment claims surged and the state was tasked with administering enhanced federal benefits of $600 per week.

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Keith said the department received 1 million claims in just 10 weeks. By comparison, NCDES typically handles about 3,000 to 3,500 claims a week.

“The $600 put North Carolina at a higher profile for bad actors coming into the system,” he said. “We also were under tremendous pressure to get money out the door. Pay, pay, pay, pay, pay. That was the message from the federal government.”

Boliek questioned why it took the agency years to fully implement a federally funded fraud detection system. He said NCDES received a federal grant to strengthen fraud prevention efforts but did not fully deploy the system for three years.

“The pandemic is not an excuse for government’s failure to monitor the expenditure of taxpayer dollars,” he said.

Keith disputed that characterization, pointing to staffing shortages, competing priorities, and Hurricane Helene as reasons for the delay.

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“The reality is that we only have so many hands,” he said. “As we got going with this process, then the hurricane came in.”

According to Keith, the fraud detection system was rolled out in phases between April and December 2024 rather than all at once.

The audit also identified problems with delayed payments. According to the report, 28% of initial unemployment payments went out after the federal 14-day benchmark.

“That’s just not acceptable,” Boliek said. “We’ve got to do better than that.

According to Boliek, delays can have serious consequences for families relying on unemployment benefits after losing a job.

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“When you’re unemployed or you get laid off, that’s when your family is in a traumatic situation,” he said. “You need to be able to rely on the state to answer the call there and get your benefits to you.”

Keith acknowledged there is still room for improvement but said DES has made progress since the period covered by the audit.

“We’re not where we want to be, but we’re a heck of a lot closer than where we were,” Keith said.



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More than 100 vendors celebrate Father’s Day at Highland Brewing

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More than 100 vendors celebrate Father’s Day at Highland Brewing


Many Father’s Day events were held across western North Carolina, celebrating fathers, including at Highland Brewing, where a market was held.

Over 100 vendors applied to set up for the event on the longest day of the year.

ASHEVILLE GETS A BUZZ ON AT HIGHLAND BREWING AS HONEYFEST CELEBRATES POLLINATORS

Event coordinator Monica Maybille says it’s important to treat fathers to a little gift.

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“It’s your dad. You gotta get stuff for your dad. They do a lot for you, so you got to treat them to a little treat sometimes,” Maybille said.

HIGHLAND BREWING HOSTS TRIBUTE PARTY HONORING LATE FOUNDER OSCAR WONG’S COMMUNITY IMPACT

The event included some dad-themed gifts, including grilling supplies and funny T-shirts.

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The next market at Highland Brewing is planned for August and will focus on back-to-school.



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