Texas
After overlooking O’Rourke, national Democrats show early confidence in Allred
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WASHINGTON — With more than four months left before Election Day 2018, Democrat Beto O’Rourke had campaigned in all of Texas’ 254 counties in his bid to unseat Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz. It was a novel strategy central to breaking through in a Republican-controlled state that national Democrats had largely written off.
Six years later, U.S. Rep. Colin Allred is taking a much more traditional approach to campaigning as he tries to do what O’Rourke couldn’t: topple Cruz. Allred has made only 125 campaign stops so far, focusing instead on getting his message out early and directly to wide swaths of voters in TV, radio and digital ads. The Allred campaign isn’t skimping on the state’s expensive media markets, booking ads in the Houston, San Antonio, Laredo and Rio Grande Valley markets last month, and placing English and Spanish ads on digital platforms statewide.
Most notably, national Democrats are showing their confidence by investing in the state more proactively than in the past.
The change in tactic shows how the landscape in Texas has evolved for Democrats since the last time they tried to oust Cruz. Democrats outside of Texas have long thought the state is just too big, too expensive and too Republican to bother pouring in money. But the near-success of the 2018 O’Rourke campaign, the development of Democratic campaign infrastructure and the roster of U.S. Senate seats up for election this year are pushing the party to take Texas more seriously.
“In terms of Texas, we have a real opportunity there. Colin Allred is a strong candidate. He won decisively a primary. He is a man who was able to win a tough seat in the Dallas area, beating an entrenched Republican,” Sen. Gary Peters, who chairs the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said in a March interview with MSNBC’s Morning Joe. “He knows how to win.”
To be sure, Democrats will be running uphill in the state, which Republicans have dominated for a generation. Cruz has made it clear he is not taking anything for granted after the 2018 scare when O’Rourke came within 3 points of beating him. That year was the closest Democrats came to breaking their long-running statewide drought.
Cruz maintains strong support among conservative voters in Texas, often polling close to Gov. Greg Abbott for most popular statewide elected official among registered Republicans. Cruz is better armed this cycle, with almost double the amount of cash on hand now than at the same point in 2018.
Cruz is also a more seasoned candidate than he was during his last run. He has greater seniority in the Senate and a roster of legislative accomplishments he is eagerly touting — many of which he achieved with members of the other party. As the top Republican on the Senate Commerce Committee, he oversaw his GOP colleagues in passing aviation safety legislation, and he has worked with Democrats on issues ranging from sexual assault in the military to cross-border commerce. For the first time, he’s making his bipartisanship and less-celebrated work a core part of his campaign.
National Democrats show their interest
The DSCC identified the state as one of its top two pick-up opportunities this year along with Florida. The group is funding staffers in the state and funneling money into advertising. And with several months until Election Day, Democratic strategists alert that the pushes will only amplify exponentially as the summer months progress.
The DSCC included Texas in a $79 million ad buy announced last fall, including a seven-figure digital advertising investment for the state. It has financed new staff positions in Texas dedicated to finding and pitching opposition material on Cruz, and ran an ad casting Cruz as pushing legislation that would curb Medicare and Social Security benefits.
Veterans of the O’Rourke campaign say no such support existed from national Democrats this early in the 2018 cycle.
“There wasn’t as much of a presumption of coordination in 2018 as there is now because Texas hadn’t been competitive statewide in 25 years,” said Katherine Fischer, a Beto campaign alumna who is now deputy executive director of Texas Majority PAC.
It took years for Texas Democrats to get their national counterparts to take their runs seriously. Former state Sen. Wendy Davis remembers during her 2014 gubernatorial run — which got intense coverage following her historic filibuster against an abortion bill the year before — that national Democrats often used her story to fundraise, only to send the money to other gubernatorial candidates in other states.
“Now, not only do you have the verbal support for calling from these groups, but what you’re starting to see is they’re going to make significant investments in this race,” Davis said. “And that’s the first time that we’ve had this kind of national political money coming in to help one of our statewide candidates.”
Matt Angle, director of the Lone Star Project, said Democrats outside of the state were much more interested in House races in 2018 than helping O’Rourke. Several districts were competitive that year and attracted millions in investment from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, including Allred’s House race that year.
Meanwhile, the DSCC was faced with an unfavorable map for Democrats and more attainable pick-up opportunities in the far less expensive swing states of Nevada and Arizona (Democrats won in both races that year). Texas contains two of the 10 most expensive media markets in the country (Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston), and the sheer vastness of the state makes it a daunting prospect.
“Beto gets most of the credit” for his 2018 successes, Angle said. “Whatever the DSCC did, they did late. That’s not surprising. That’s what I would expect: The DSCC first would have to protect their incumbents and Texas is a giant investment statewide for them.”
Zack Malitz, who was the field director of O’Rourke’s 2018 campaign, said the campaign’s aggressive investments in recruiting a large volunteer network could help future Democratic candidates.
“One built-in advantage that Texas campaigns have now is that you have tens of thousands of people who have volunteered on well-managed field programs in Texas and so the upfront investment to activate those people is a lot lower now,” Malitz.
A bad map for Dems, a good map for Texas Dems
National Democrats are zeroing in on Texas to a certain extent because there are no better alternatives for their attention. The Senate map this year is generally unfavorable for Democrats, who have several vulnerable incumbents up for reelection, while all Republicans up for reelection are in generally safe states.
Democrats are spending considerable funds to protect Sens. Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Jon Tester in Montana — both representing states that voted for former President Donald Trump in 2020 by significant margins. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, an independent who was previously a Democrat, is not running for reelection in her swing state of Arizona.
Sens. Jacky Rosen, D-Nevada, and Bob Casey, D-Pennsylvania, will also be up for reelection this year in states that voted for President Joe Biden by a margin of less than three points. In Maryland, the popular former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan has the backing of the National Republican Senatorial Committee in his bid to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin.
Meanwhile, the Republican Senate seats up for election this year outside of Texas and Florida are in Wyoming, Tennessee, Indiana, North Dakota, Nebraska, Missouri, Utah and Mississippi. None are states Democrats are particularly optimistic about flipping.
“While the Senate calculus for where we pick up the state is pretty narrow, the Senate calculus for where we have to hold is actually pretty wide,” said Tory Gavito, president of Democratic donor network Way to Win. “There’s a lot of money that needs to go into Montana, Nevada, Arizona, where we already hold Senate seats.”
Fischer notes that trends could point favorably for Democrats in the future. Of states Biden lost in 2020, Texas had the third smallest margin behind Florida and North Carolina. North Carolina has no open Senate seats this year, and Florida has demonstrated a considerable rightward shift in the last several years, Fischer said.
“Texas is by far the best pick-up opportunity,” said Fischer. “They have to play some offense, too, and if they’re looking at offense, then Texas is definitely their best opportunity.”
Confidence in Allred
Allred polls relatively close to where O’Rourke was at this point in 2018. By May of 2018, polls showed Cruz comfortably ahead of O’Rourke by as much as 11 points in a Quinnipiac poll. An April poll by the University of Texas and The Texas Tribune show Cruz ahead of Allred by 13 points.
But it’s still early in the cycle, and investments into Texas could expand considerably later in the summer. The Senate Majority PAC, Democrats’ largest independent spending group, has not yet made public any plans to invest in Texas, but its leadership hinted it could later in the year. The group has already reserved $239 million in ads focusing on defending its incumbents in vulnerable states.
O’Rourke’s momentum also didn’t escalate until much later in 2018. He had exponential growth in fundraising in the final quarter of the year before November, surging to $70.2 million by Election Day. He had reported under $25 million up to the end of the prior quarter.
Democrats emphasize Allred is a strong candidate in his own right and has been aggressive in his messaging efforts to attack Cruz. Allred is running on a decidedly moderate platform in contrast with past statewide candidates — a strategy on display ahead of the primary when state Sen. Roland Gutierrez tried to win the nomination on a much more progressive message. It’s an approach that Davis said makes Allred more appealing to male and moderate voters.
“He appeals to people in a way that is unique, not just to Democrats, but to independents and to moderate Republicans as well because he is a person who doesn’t need to be the center of attention,” Davis said. “He just wants to do the work.”
Allred also outraised both Cruz (and O’Rourke’s 2018 campaign) in the first quarter of the year. Allred raised over $9.7 million in the first three months of the year to O’Rourke’s over $6.7 million in the first quarter of 2018. In the first quarter of this year, Cruz raised over $6.9 million through his principal campaign, but that figure goes up to $9.7 million when including his other fundraising operations, some of which is for other candidates.
Allred also has a record of winning a competitive seat in his Dallas-based district in 2018 against U.S. Rep. Pete Sessions, who was later elected in 2020 to represent Waco. Sessions was a formidable opponent, having overseen the National Republican Congressional Committee during the 2010 cycle — one of his party’s most successful in decades.
O’Rourke, who never represented a competitive district, did not have that track record to bolster confidence in his run among his D.C. counterparts.
“You don’t act on nostalgia. I mean, it’s cold blooded,” Angle said. “And you look at each election cycle in its cycle, and Beto gets plenty of credit for the success he had in 2018. But [national Democrats] are looking at what Colin Allred is doing.”
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Texas
A Judge Issued a Rebuke to the Texas GOP’s Claims About the East Plano Islamic Center
For more than a year, high-profile Texas Republicans have argued that Muslims are secretly plotting to take over Texas, centering their outrage on the East Plano Islamic Center, a mosque and Muslim community in North Texas known as EPIC. That hysteria resulted in a range of government enforcement actions last year, including a probe by the Texas Funeral Service Commission that barred EPIC from performing funeral rites. Last July EPIC sued the state, alleging Texas had violated its religious freedom. Late Wednesday, a federal judge in the Western District of Texas ruled that the mosque’s lawsuit can proceed despite the state’s attempt to dismiss it. In his ruling, the judge also issued a strong rebuke to claims made by Governor Greg Abbott and other state officials, writing that “no evidence has been presented” that EPIC intends to impose “Sharia law,” Islamic teachings based on the Quran and words of the Prophet Muhammad, on Texans.
The case stems from last March, when the funeral commission issued a cease and desist order that barred the mosque from performing traditional cleansing, shrouding, and prayer over bodies, on the grounds that EPIC may have been unlawfully conducting such rites without a license. (EPIC denies this allegation.) As Texas Monthly has reported, the agency was pushed to issue the order by some of Abbott’s closest advisers, who had made unsupported claims that EPIC and a proposed housing development it was affiliated with, EPIC City, was building a “no go zone” exclusive to Muslims (it was not).
EPIC sued the funeral commission in July 2025, arguing that the cease and desist order was an unconstitutional prohibition on religious practices. In Islam, preparing bodies for funerals stands as one of the most sacred rites; by the time of EPIC’s lawsuit, according to the petition, at least eleven congregants had been forced to receive rites elsewhere—away from their home mosque.
EPIC later amended its lawsuit to include former funeral commission chair Kristin Tips after text messages were released showing she had shared anti-Muslim messages and videos as the agency’s investigation unfolded. Among the examples was a graphic Tips had sent to the commission’s then–executive director, Scott Bingaman, that accused Islam of allowing child marriage and pedophilia. After sending it, Tips texted Bingaman a YouTube video with the title: “EPIC CITY TEXAS! Are Muslims planning a TAKEOVER?”
For nearly a year, the case has been locked in a procedural back-and-forth as Tips and the agency—represented by Attorney General Ken Paxton’s office—have pushed for the court to dismiss the case. Late Wednesday evening, Judge David Alan Ezra, a Ronald Reagan appointee, issued an order denying Tips’s attempt to dismiss the lawsuit. He also rejected Tips’s claim of qualified immunity, which can shield government officials from personal liability in civil cases. That rejection is rare in courts, such as this one, that appeal to the Fifth Circuit, which is one of the most conservative federal appellate courts in the country and is typically welcoming to government defendants.
In his ruling, Ezra cited the funeral commission’s deviation from historical norm in the EPIC case, as the agency has repeatedly asserted—first in 1987 and again in 2014—that Islamic religious organizations could conduct funeral and burial services without government oversight. The judge also affirmed that the alleged conduct—including the cease and desist order and Tips’s anti-Muslim messages—was seemingly “the result of religious discrimination” that violated EPIC’s clearly established religious rights under the Constitution’s Equal Protection Clause and other laws protecting religious liberty. In a rather remarkable footnote, the judge added that, based on the evidence offered, the court firmly rejected claims “suggesting that EPIC has applied, or intends to apply, ‘Sharia law’ in its practices.”
Though the case will now continue to wind through the courts, the judge’s ruling is a firm rebuke of the anti-Muslim political hysteria fueled by Abbott and his team of advisers. As Texas Monthly reported this month, the governor’s inner circle took an unusually active role in the funeral commission’s regulatory case against EPIC. After being looped into the agency’s pending investigation, which stemmed from an April 2024 complaint levied by a private individual, the governor’s attorneys, including Abbott’s general counsel, Trevor Ezell, edited the boilerplate cease and desist order the commission was ready to issue to make it more severe and punitive.
The original document, drafted by a funeral commission staffer, included a line warning that noncompliance would result in the agency taking “legal action.” Abbott’s team struck that line and suggested replacing it with a “criminal referral” to the Collin County district attorney—in what amounted to a hijacking of the agency’s usual independent regulatory process. At one point, a close adviser of Abbott even reported to a commission staffer that Abbott had texted him that after the cease and desist order was sent out, the funeral commission was his new favorite agency.
Over the following months, the governor’s advisers, including Ezell and a budget and policy adviser, Alex Aragon, weighed in often on the EPIC probe, requesting regular updates, coordinating public statements, and, at times, directing regulatory action. When the agency investigated other cases—such as a high-profile incident in which a Dallas funeral home allegedly accidentally shipped a stillborn baby to a Louisiana laundry facility—the governor’s team exhibited no similar interest. More than a year after the funeral commission’s cease and desist order, its investigation remains ongoing. No violations have been found.
Tips, the agency’s former chair, led the funeral commission until March 12, when, according to an email obtained by Texas Monthly, she “prayerfully” resigned, effective immediately, late in the night. While the circumstances around her departure remain unknown, she had spent months under fire for allegations that she had illegally lobbied for tort reform in her position as chair, which she denies. But in her absence, the governor’s pursuit of EPIC has continued. In March, the funeral commission issued a broad new subpoena to EPIC, seeking every record of funeral services that the mosque has on file.
After EPIC’s attorneys pushed back, arguing the order was too large in scope, Paxton’s office got involved—issuing a letter that demanded EPIC comply. Meanwhile, Abbott has continued his crusade against the mosque, going on Fox News earlier this week to deride EPIC and what he alleged were “multiple violations” of the law. The governor has touted that a dozen state agencies have investigated EPIC. To date, no criminal charges have been filed against the mosque, and a federal probe into EPIC by the the Department of Justice was dropped with no findings of malfeasance.
Texas
USDA reports screwworm spread in Texas
Texas
Why Texas? Explaining ins and outs of NHL exploring team for Houston or Austin
The NHL took the first step toward expansion in Texas earlier this week, agreeing to terms with billionaire Dan Friedkin and his family to explore the feasibility of putting a franchise in Houston or Austin.
Far enough from the Dallas Stars, who relocated from Minnesota in 1993, a new team would not interfere with their territorial rights. And the league has shown no fear of adding one team at a time, so No. 33 does not have to come with No. 34.
“Symmetry I don’t think should necessarily govern expansion,” Commissioner Gary Bettman said Tuesday. “You expand if you think it makes sense and enhances what the league has.”
What is behind the NHL’s interest in Texas
Money is the obvious answer. Bettman said the total investment of the project would be some $3.5 billion, which would include expansion fees paid to established owners along with the cost of building a new arena.
The Houston Rockets’ arena downtown is publicly owned but controlled by team owner Tilman Fertitta’s Clutch City Sports and Entertainment group. The home of the American Hockey League’s Texas Stars, in the Austin suburb of Cedar Park, has a capacity of 8,000 that is a little over half the size of the NHL’s smallest current rink (Winnipeg).
“I would be surprised if the NHL would be OK with an expansion team that does not have a new arena,” said Brian Mills, an associate professor at the University of Texas who teaches courses on sports economics and strategy. “The revenue potential with the luxury boxes and the way that they set those up and the money that they like to extract from the local cities is way too large to pass up.”
They are also huge markets. Houston at nearly 2.4 million is the fourth-most-populated U.S. city; Austin at just over 1 million is in the top 12.
“Obviously it makes sense if you’re a sports league to have a franchise in the nation’s fifth-largest metro area and one that is growing rapidly,” said Holy Cross professor Victor Matheson, an expert in sports economics. “Houston obviously makes sense in general as a destination for any league.”
Austin is smaller but has doubled its population since the mid-1990s and has seen an infusion of people over the past five years. Only eight of the NHL’s existing markets are bigger.
“It’s becoming more and more of a tech city, so I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s more hockey fans here than there used to be,” Mills said. “I would imagine there’s some market for the NHL here in Austin, particularly more than when it was a sleepy, small town capital of Texas 30 years ago.”
History of hockey in Houston and Austin
When hockey was picking up in popularity in the 1960s and ‘70s and the NHL went from six teams to 18, the rival World Hockey Association was founded and Houston got a franchise when the one in Dayton, Ohio, failed to get off the ground.
The Aeros’ inaugural season was in 1972-78, and they were best known for “Mr. Hockey” Gordie Howe playing for them along with sons Mark and Marty. They won four Avco World Trophies as WHA champions before folding.
An AHL team using the same name existed in Houston from 1994-2013. The Texas Stars have played in Austin since ’09.
“There’s some interest of hockey,” University of Houston economics professor Steven G. Craig said. “Houston is full of immigrants from around the country and around the world. And Austin is sort of similar in the sense of a pretty heterogeneous population.”
Pros and cons of a Houston or Austin NHL franchise
Growing the sport in another so-called non-traditional spot is a big benefit. Smashing successes in places like Las Vegas and Tampa, Florida, show what hockey can do across the Sun Belt when strong ownership is involved.
“Southern cities have been doing pretty well now these days in the NHL: the Lightning and the Panthers,” Mills said of the two teams in Florida. “You’ve got some pretty good hockey teams after some pretty miserable failures with some earlier expansion to the South.”
Abandoning the second try in Atlanta (the Thrashers from 2000-11) was more a failure of ownership than the market. The same could be said in Arizona, where a revolving door of owners led to arena miscues and eventually the Coyotes being sold and moved to Salt Lake City in 2024 to become the Utah Mammoth.
A 33rd team also means 20-23 more NHL players and hopefuls in the minors. The changing landscape of hockey development at the junior and college levels has the potential to churn more talent through the pipeline in North America than ever before, along with players coming from Europe.
“You do have a pretty big pool of players,” Matheson said. “I’m not particularly worried about diluting the talent there because I think there’s a lot of skill.”
What’s next and where the 34th team may be
After this six-month exploratory phase is complete, recent history suggests a season-ticket drive would be one of the subsequent steps. Ticket drives validated interest that led to the Vegas Golden Knights and Seattle Kraken.
The Board of Governors would need to approve moving forward in the process. No vote has yet been held, though the executive committee supported exploring Houston and Austin.
And while the NHL is comfortable with unbalanced Eastern and Western conferences, getting to 34 teams seems inevitable if it goes to 33. Bettman said the board on Tuesday was updated on situations in Atlanta and Arizona, and it would be no surprise if one of those places got another crack at it.
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