The University of New Hampshire dropped polls from three New England States last week — but New Hampshire may as well have been on its own planet.
In Rhode Island, President Joe Biden holds a 19-point lead over former President Donald Trump at 52-33 percent, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. taking 6 percent.
In Massachusetts, Biden’s pulling Vladimir Putin numbers, beating Trump nearly 30 points (55-26 percent), while RFK Jr.’s at 10 percent.
But just across the state line in New Hampshire, Biden and Trump are essentially tied at 44-41 percent, with Biden’s lead in the margin of error.
This latest Granite State Poll from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center bolsters last week’s New Hampshire Journal/Praecones Analytica poll finding the two deadlocked at 37 percent.
Worth noting: The NHJournal poll gave respondents a “none of these” option, which likely helped keep the candidates’ gross numbers lower than the other polls. But it doesn’t change the trend.
Biden is in danger of being just the second Democrat since 1992 to lose New Hampshire’s four Electoral College votes. (Al Gore in 2000 was the other.)
The question NHJournal has been getting since the poll was published has been some version of, “Look, I know it’s your poll, but c’mon. You don’t really believe Biden’s in trouble in New Hampshire?”
To which NHJournal has been replying, “Don’t ask us. Ask Mark Halperin.”
Halperin is one of the most astute observers of American politics, and on the Memorial Day weekend edition of the NHJournal podcast he doesn’t dismiss the possibility that the president is in trouble in the Granite State.
“It is a state that I think has a bunch of discerning voters who may evaluate the Biden presidency as a failure,” Halperin said of New Hampshire. “And it’s a state that is not afraid to seek dramatic change. And of course, the relatively popular governor has endorsed Trump.”
“Endorsed” is a bit strong, but Sununu is voting for Trump — a fact he discussed on Fox and Friends over the weekend — using his “51=49 percent” formula. (“I’m 51-49 for Trump, and that’s where I’m going to vote.”)
Will his fellow Granite Staters come to the same conclusion?
If they do, says Halperin, if Trump really does get to November as a competitive candidate in New Hampshire, “he’ll win [the White House] in a landslide.”
Many New Hampshire Democrats — and some Never Trump Granite State Republicans — continue to insist that isn’t possible. Biden’s going to win re election, and he’s going to dominate New Hampshire along the way, they tell NHJournal. Asked about the new polls — or the past year’s worth of national polls showing Trump consistently winning — and Democrats shrug them off.
“There has never been an election like this, ever,” one Granite State Democrat told NHJournal on background. “I have zero faith in pollsters to find out what people really think.”
To which NHJournal has been replying, “Don’t look at us. Ask Joe Biden.”
The same president who refused to set foot in the Granite State during the entire First in the Nation presidential primary season has now been to New Hampshire twice in the past two months. That’s as many visits as swing states like Georgia and Nevada. Why?
Maybe the campaign thinks he has to, speculates Halperin. He points out that beyond the seven states viewed as potential pick-ups by both sides—AZ/GA/MI/NC/NV/PA/WI—Trump has a list of potential pick-ups: “Trump has New Hampshire, he has Minnesota, maybe Virginia.”
“But the next state for Biden after the top seven? It’s not clear at this point what it is. They can pretend it’s Florida, but they’re down by a lot,” Halperin said.
And so Biden comes to Nashua, speaks to a handful of supporters, says nothing memorable and leaves. Because he has to do something. Because there’s little else he can do as a candidate.
This is where the math gets tricky for Granite State Democrats. While they remain loyal to their president, 71 percent (yes, you read that right) of independent voters disapprove of how Biden is doing his job. Democratic candidates like gubernatorial hopeful Cinde Warmington continue to say Biden’s doing a great job, because they’ve got a primary to win. But will publicly defending Biden’s policies on inflation and illegal immigration pay off in November?
One early indicator: No New Hampshire Democrat seeking reelection in November — including U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas — appeared with Biden during his Granite State stop. Check their social media, too. Other than passing references to veterans’ issues, you’d never know the president was here.
Biden backers keep saying that there’s plenty of time, that it’s still early, that the Biden campaign has yet to carpet bomb the swing states with ads about abortion and January 6. And that’s all true.
But it’s also true that Memorial Day has come and gone… and Trump is still winning. He’s winning the RealClearPolitics average in national polls. He’s winning in at least six of the seven swing states. And perhaps most astonishing, he may be winning in New Hampshire.
America has a long, hot summer ahead. A lot of things will happen, perhaps even a presidential debate (though that’s by no means certain.) If polling on Labor Day looks like it did on Memorial Day, we are in for one hell of a ride in New Hampshire.
