Sports
How a Hurricanes comeback can reverse a decade-long trend
After starting the second round with three straight losses, the Carolina Hurricanes have officially made it a series with thrilling back-to-back wins in Games 4 and 5.
That’s more akin to what many expected from this series before it started — a close, hard-fought battle between the two titans of the Metropolitan Division. While it certainly played out that way on the ice with three one-goal games to start, the series score obviously told a different story.
On Thursday night in Game 6, the Hurricanes have a very real chance to flip that script, as they’ll be relatively heavy favorites at home to push the series to a Game 7 with a third straight win of their own.
That may be a nauseating thought for Rangers fans, but it’s a rare treat for hockey fans at large. It would be the first time since 2014 that a team forced a Game 7 after starting a series down 3-0, when the Los Angeles Kings rallied in the first round to eliminate the San Jose Sharks.
That it’s been an entire decade since the last such instance is wilder than it seems at first blush.
There may not be anything more exciting in sport than a comeback, a down-and-out team returning from the dead against all odds. On a game-by-game basis, hockey fans have been blessed in that department over the last few seasons. The “most dangerous lead in hockey” remains, but that’s also extended to three-goal and four-goal cushions, which have evaporated at a much higher rate in recent years. In this sport, truly no lead is safe.
And yet that rising comeback mentality hasn’t extended to playoff series. Over the last decade, a 3-0 series lead might as well be a done deal. It’s a guarantee with zero hope for the downtrodden.
It’s not even that there haven’t been any comebacks; it’s that there hasn’t even been a team that was close, with zero Game 7s to speak of in those situations.
To some, that may seem like a non-story, given the rarity throughout hockey history. A 3-0 series lead is a vice-grip that should be impossible to let go of, a feat reserved for only the biggest of choke artists.
Still with the increase in parity in the salary-cap era, we should’ve seen a few more over the last decade just by pure chance. There’s always a chance of even the most unexpected thing happening and the fact those chances haven’t come to fruition is fascinating.
Since 2015, there have been 30 instances of a team being down 3-0, and 60 percent of those ended unceremoniously in a sweep. Only four (13 percent) even made it to Game 6, where the Hurricanes are now — with last year’s Dallas Stars being the first to even manage that in eight(!) seasons.
While the odds are never in the favor of a team down 3-0, they aren’t zero, either. At least they shouldn’t be. There’s a myth that a 3-0 deficit only happens to the worst teams, those that would be extremely unlikely to crawl out of such a hole to begin with, but it can happen to even the best of teams.
Before the series began, the 30 teams ranged from 17 percent underdogs to 77 percent favorites (hello 2019 Tampa Bay Lightning) based on series prices from Sports Odds History. Of the 30, 13 teams were expected to win from the onset. Based on that — and accounting for a lesser opinion of the team after losing three straight — the odds of at least forcing Game 7 ranged from four percent to 20 percent. The odds of coming back ranged from one percent to 13 percent.
On average, we’re talking a one-in-10 shot at forcing Game 7 and a one-in-five shot at winning the series after going down 3-0. Those are clearly minuscule odds, but over 30 series, those tiny odds add up.
Based on each team’s odds after being down 3-0, we should’ve seen three Game 7s with one or two full-blown comebacks. We’ve got zero instead. In short — we’ve been robbed.
Some will be quick to point out the human element of it all, and it’s a very fair point. Up 3-0, a lot of teams have shown the necessary killer instinct to close the series. Down 3-0, a lot of teams have folded at the prospect of the mountain ahead. Sometimes, the teams down 3-0 are simply not as good as they were expected to be from the jump. Or the team up 3-0 is a lot better.
As valid as those points may seem, the odds of not seeing a Game 7 for a team down 3-0 let alone a comeback is still very low — low enough that even real qualitative counters can’t explain it away. Given 30 instances with an average of a 10.6 percent chance of seeing a Game 7, there’s a 97 percent chance we should’ve seen at least one. A 5.2 percent chance of seeing a comeback over 30 instances gives us an 80 percent chance of seeing at least one on that front.
The odds of chaos have been high enough over the last decade; they just haven’t manifested. That can happen over small samples; 30 series definitely qualifies for that.
Over a larger sample, the odds do tend to even out, though, and that’s best exhibited from looking at the start of the salary cap era. There, the odds perfectly reflect reality.
From 2006 to 2014, there were 38 series in which a team went down 3-0 — but those teams clearly had a bit more fight in them. A higher percentage won at least one game (57 percent), two forced a Game 7 and lost (Detroit and Chicago in 2011), and two of those teams won (Los Angeles in 2014 and Philadelphia in 2010).
Their average odds? The same as the last decade: 11 percent to force Game 7 and five percent to complete the comeback.
Add up all the odds, and that nine-year period got the exact amount of dramatic chaos as expected: 4.1 Game 7s and 2.1 comebacks. It’s a stark contrast from what we’ve received over the last decade. Hockey fans are long overdue.
Overdue doesn’t mean it’s due to happen. It’s a fallacy to suggest there will be more Game 7s and comebacks after a team goes down 3-0 simply because it hasn’t happened in a while. That doesn’t make it more likely to happen in the near future. The odds, on average, are still about one-in-10 for a Game 7 and one-in-five for a comeback.
But we’re as close as we can get here with the Hurricanes.
For Carolina, specifically, the odds have changed after winning Games 4 and 5. Now it’s an over 60 percent chance of forcing Game 7 and an over 30 percent chance of completing the comeback. For the first time in a decade, we have a serious chance of witnessing history.
The odds are still heavily in the Rangers’ favor here up 3-2 and no one is counting out the Presidents’ Trophy champions from grabbing that necessary fourth win. But the Hurricanes have a great team too, one with a real chance of living up to their slogan: “cause chaos.”
(Photo: Joshua Sarner / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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After its massive 1-0 win over South Korea on Thursday night, Mexico has won Group A and officially clinched a spot in the knockout round.
El Tri will play its Round of 32 game in Mexico City, and will face the third-place finisher in either Group C/E/F/H/I.
This is the fourth time that Mexico has topped the group stage of a World Cup, with the other three coming in 1986, 1994 and 2002.
With the win, Mexico remains unbeaten in World Cup group games at home, going a combined 6-2-0 (W-D-L), with two wins and a draw in 1970 and 1986, and now two wins in 2026.
Before the tournament began, Mexico was listed at +6500 to win the World Cup. Now, after winning its first two games of the tournament, Mexico has surged up the oddsboard to +5000.
Can Mexico build off its first two matches and make a deep run in this tournament? Let’s check out the updated odds for El Tri as of June 19.
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Team Mexico — Stage of Elimination
Last 32: +125 (bet $10 to win $22.50 total)
Last 16: +135 (bet $10 to win $23.50 total)
Quarterfinals: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
Semifinals: +1600 (bet $10 to win $170 total)
Runner-up: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Outright winner: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
Mexico is currently +5000 to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup after winning Group A (Getty Images).
Mexico’s Past World Cup Results:
1930: Group stage
1934: Did not qualify
1938: Withdrew
1950: Group stage
1954: Group stage
1958: Group stage
1962: Group stage
1966: Group stage
1970: Quarterfinals
1974: Did not qualify
1978: Group stage
1982: Did not qualify
1986: Quarterfinals
1990: Banned
1994: Round of 16
1998: Round of 16
2002: Round of 16
2006: Round of 16
2010: Round of 16
2014: Round of 16
2018: Round of 16
2022: Group stage
2026: TBD
What to know: Mexico has made a habit of being in the running, but never really being in the running. Make sense? Consider this: El Tri made it out of the group stage in seven consecutive World Cups (1994-2018), but never made it past the Round of 16 in any of those years. In 2022, Mexico failed to make it out of the group stage, and it will look to get back to its winning ways in 2026 after a great start to the tournament. With its win Thursday night, Mexico has now advanced to the knockout stage in eight of the last nine World Cups. It is important to note, however, that Mexico has never made it past the quarterfinals at a FIFA men’s World Cup.
GUADALAJARA, Mexico — Three and a half years after its biggest failure on the World Cup stage in half a century, the Mexican national team needed only two games to advance to the knockout round of this year’s tournament as winner of Group A.
Mexico’s defense held off a spirited final push by South Korea, earning a 1-0 win on Thursday night at Guadalajara Stadium in front of a fiery announced sellout crowd of 45,522.
“It was a very tough game,” Mexico coach Javier Aguirre said.
Goalkeeper Kim Seung-gyu made a mistake in the 50th minute, failing to stop what appeared to be a simple cross and bobbling the ball. That allowed Mexico’s Luis Romo to easily tap the ball into the net and claim a 1-0 lead.
“In the end, a mistake was going to tip the scales,” Aguirre said.
Mexico goalkeeper Raúl Rangel blocks a shot from South Korea’s Son Heung-min during their World Cup match at Guadalajara Stadium on Thursday.
(Natacha Pisarenko / Ap Photo/natacha Pisarenko)
“You always want to be there; I felt it, and I got the chance,” said Romo, who started the game after starting the opener on the bench — a strategic change by the Mexican coach that paid off.
South Korea put pressure on the Mexican team throughout the game. Late in the scoreless first half, Jae-sung Lee came close to giving South Korea the lead. Aguirre hoped his team would shake off nerves following the emotional opener at Azteca Stadium and show more bite in its second game against South Korea, but his team didn’t have much power behind its attack during the game’s first 45 minutes.
The crowd in Guadalajara grew frustrated and began booing the Mexican national team’s performance at the end of the first half.
Mexico, however, won back their cheers when it capitalized on South Korea’s costly mistake and converted it into a goal.
Obed Vargas replaced Romo in the 71st minute and was close to scoring a spectacular goal if not for Seung-gyu’s save.
El Tri earned a win without any other goals thanks, in part, to a great night by goalkeeper Raúl Rangel, who stopped a header by Cho Gue-sung in the 87th minute. Captain Edson Álvarez helped turn away South Korea’s attack late, holding up relatively well despite having left ankle surgery during the past year.
“It was just a reflex,” said Rangel, whose club team Chivas plays at at Guadalajara Stadium. “I was very focused and stepped up when the team needed me, and I’m happy about that.”
LAFC star and South Korea captain Son Heung-min fired one shot over Mexico’s goalkeeper in the first half, but Álvarez cleared it off the line before the referee ruled Son was offsides.
South Korea finished controlling possession 58% of the time, but it only earned two shots on target.
“It wasn’t a good game because they didn’t let us do much,” Aguirre said.
Mexico was coming off a comfortable 2-0 victory over South Africa, while the South Koreans had defeated the Czech Republic 2-1, marking their first World Cup opening-match win since 2010.
During the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, Mexico was eliminated in the group stage for the first time since 1978, breaking a streak of seven consecutive appearances in the knockout rounds. However, playing on home soil, the team’s goal is to emulate El Tri’s achievements in 1970 and 1986, when they reached the quarterfinals — the country’s best World Cup finish.
Due to the new 48-team format, Mexico would need to win two knockout-round matches and reach a sixth game to realize its goals.
“We’re taking it one step at a time; first, there’s the third game,” Romo said.
Mexico’s Luis Romo celebrates with his teammates after scoring during a match against South Korea at Guadalajara Stadium on Thursday.
(Natacha Pisarenko / Associated Press)
After the win over South Korea, Mexico will close out group play against Czechia at Azteca Stadium in Mexico City on Wednesday. El Tri will get to play the first two games of the knockout round — should it win the first one — at Azteca Stadium, a venue where it has never lost a World Cup game.
South Korea has four points and will be favored when it plays South Africa Wednesday in Monterrey. If South Korea wins the match, it would be the Group A runner-up and advance to play the Group B runner-up on June 28 at SoFi Stadium.
“We want all nine points,” Vargas said of Mexico’s goal entering its next game against Czechia.
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Who’ll win the Golden Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? The race is on for who’ll score the most goals at the tournament, and it is set to be one of the tournament’s most closely watched storylines.
Several of the world’s top forwards will be aiming to finish as the competition’s leading goalscorer. Kylian Mbappé enters the tournament after winning the Golden Boot at the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while Harry Kane, Erling Haaland, Lionel Messi, and Mikel Oyarzabal are among the other players expected to challenge for the award.
And check out our list of all the 2026 World Cup goals, ranked!
Favorites To Win The Golden Boot
Harry Kane: +310 (bet $10 to win $41 total)
Lionel Messi: +350 (bet $10 to win $45 total)
Kylian Mbappé: +350 (bet $10 to win $45 total)
Erling Haaland: +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)
Kai Havertz: +1300 (bet $10 to win $140 total)
Vinícius Júnior: +3300 (bet $10 to win $340 total)
Folarin Balogun: +3500 (bet $10 to win $360 total)
Mikel Oyarzabal: +3500 (bet $10 to win $360 total)
Lamine Yamal: +3500 (bet $10 to win $360 total)
Raphinha: +4500 (bet $10 to win $460 total)
Michael Olise: +4500 (bet $10 to win $460 total)
Romelu Lukaku: +4500 (bet $10 to win $460 total)
Viktor Gyökeres: +4500 (bet $10 to win $460 total)
Cody Gakpo: +5500 (bet $10 to win $560 total)
Cristiano Ronaldo: +5500 (bet $10 to win $560 total)
3 Goals
Lionel Messi (Argentina)
2 Goals
Johan Manzambi (Switzerland)
Harry Kane (England)
Erling Haaland (Norway)
Kylian Mbappé (France)
Harry Kane (England)
Elijah Just (New Zealand)
Yasin Ayari (Sweden)
Kai Havertz (Germany)
Folarin Balogun (USA)
1 Goal
Granit Xhaka (Switzerland)
Rubén Vargas (Switzerland)
Ermin Mahmic (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
Michal Sadilek (Czechia)
Teboho Mokoena (South Africa)
Jáminton Campaz (Colombia)
Luis Díaz (Colombia)
Daniel Muñoz (Colombia)
Abbosbek Fayzullaev (Uzbekistan)
Caleb Yirenkyi (Ghana)
Jude Bellingham (England)
Marcus Rashford (England)
Martin Baturina (Croatia)
Petar Musa (Croatia)
Yoane Wissa (DR Congo)
João Neves (Portugal)
Marko Arnautović (Austria)
Jude Bellingham (England)
Marcus Rashford (England)
Yoane Wissa (DR Congo)
João Neves (Portugal)
Caleb Yirenkyi (Ghana)
Ali Olwan (Jordan)
Romano Schmid (Austria)
Leo Østigard (Norway)
Ayman Hussein (Iraq)
Ibrahim Mbaye (Senegal)
Bradley Barcola (France)
Ramin Rezaeian (Iran)
Mohammad Mohebbi (Iran)
Maxi Araújo (Uruguay)
Abdulelah Al-Amri (Saudi Arabia)
Emam Ashour (Egypt)
Alexander Isak (Sweden)
Viktor Gyökeres (Sweden)
Mattias Svanberg (Sweden)
Omar Rekik (Tunisia)
Amad Diallo (Ivory Coast)
Keito Nakamura (Japan)
Daichi Kamada (Japan)
Virgil van Dijk (Netherlands)
Crysencio Summerville (Netherlands)
Felix Nmecha (Germany)
Nico Schlotterbeck (Germany)
Jamal Musiala (Germany)
Nathaniel Brown (Germany)
Deniz Undav (Germany)
Connor Metcalfe (Australia)
Nestory Irankunda (Australia)
John McGinn (Scotland)
Ismael Saibari (Morocco)
Vinícius Júnior (Brazil)
Breel Embolo (Switzerland)
Gio Reyna (USA)
Mauricio (Paraguay)
Cyle Larin (Canada)
Jovo Lukić (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
Ladislav Krejcí (Czechia)
Julián Quiñones (Mexico)
Raúl Jimenez (Mexico)
Hwang In-Beom (South Korea)
Oh Hyeon-Gyu (South Korea)
Own Goals
Yazan Al-Arab (Jordan; 1)
Ayman Hussein (Iraq; 1)
Mohamed Hany (Egypt; 1)
Miro Muheim (Switzerland; 1)
Damián Bobadilla (Paraguay; 1)
Last 5 Golden Boot Winners
- 2022 (Qatar): Kylian Mbappé (France) – 8 goals
- 2018 (Russia): Harry Kane (England) – 6 goals
- 2014 (Brazil): James Rodríguez (Colombia) – 6 goals
- 2010 (South Africa): Thomas Müller (Germany) – 5 goals
- 2006 (Germany): Miroslav Klose (Germany) – 5 goals
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