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Financial account significantly negative.

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Financial account significantly negative.

Bonds: Debt rollover ratio remains decent YTD

The Ministry of Finance refinanced 90% of debt redemptions in February in all currencies; however, the rollover ratio YTD exceeds 100%.At last week’s primary auction, the MoF raised UAH11bn (US$287m) without changes in interest rates. This was one of the largest weekly borrowings this year. Last week’s proceeds were split almost equally between local and hard currencies. See details in the auction review.Thanks to large volumes of UAH borrowings in February, the total monthly refinancing level in all currencies was 90%. YTD, the total rollover rate stood at 119%, including 88% in US dollars and 93% in euros. Borrowings continue to exceed repayments only in local currency. The rollover ratio was 138% in February and 190% YTD.Due to significant redemptions of USD-denominated securities last week, the volume of domestic bonds outstanding slid in February by 0.2%. Except for banks, portfolios of all bondholder groups declined.During March, the Ministry must repay UAH18bn (approximately US$467m) of UAH debt (including UAH16bn next week and UAH2bn at the end of the month) and US$430m in FX-denominated bills (in two weeks). So, in preparation for significant repayments, the MoF has added a new US dollar issue to today’s offering and will, thus, offer USD-denominated bills three times in March.

ICU view: The MoF has already refinanced all scheduled for January and February domestic debt redemptions, largely thanks to UAH notes. It will likely try to step up FX borrowings in view of upcoming sizeable redemptions in March to ensure the rollover for FX instruments is at least 100%. April’s schedule is very light on redemptions with only UAH2.5bn scheduled, so the Ministry will be accumulating liquidity for May repayments when UAH40bn (about US$1bn) and EUR277m are to be redeemed.

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Bonds: Investors wait for signals from MoF

Ukrainian Eurobond prices rose significantly last week in anticipation of the start of debt restructuring negotiations.Last week, Ukrainian Eurobond prices rose by an average of 9.6%. The prices shifted to 26‒32 cents per dollar, and the price range for Ukrainian Eurobonds with different maturities narrowed to 11.3%. The VRI’s price increased by 4% to 47 cents per dollar of notional value. The EMBI index increased by 0.2% last week.

ICU view: Last week, investors were actively discussing rumours of an imminent start to negotiations on restructuring Eurobonds. Despite lack of new material information about possible restructuring terms, bondholders were broadly optimistic and took the rare signals from the government as a sign that a full-fledged restructuring rather than extension of a standstill agreement looms.

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FX: FX market balance improves again

The demand for hard currency decreased last week, which allowed the NBU to reduce its interventions and strengthen the official hryvnia exchange rate.In the interbank FX market, the purchase of foreign currency by bank clients (legal entities) decreased by 20% last week. At the same time, hard currency sales increased by 13%, implying net sale of foreign currency of US$38m. The official hryvnia exchange rate strengthened by 0.5% last week to UAH38.16/US$ for yesterday.Net purchases of hard currency in the retail FX market decreased to US$203m. The cash exchange rate in systemically important banks strengthened by 0.2% to UAH38.0‒38.6/US$.The overall improvement in the FX market balance allowed the NBU to reduce its FX sale interventions to US$321m.

ICU view: With no significant demand for hard currency from government entities for import contracts, the FX market balance improved. Despite the relatively favourable situation and below-average deficit in the market, the NBU gives little room to the hryvnia to strengthen, likely indicating its strong preference for gradual hryvnia depreciation in the mid-term.

Economics: Financial account significantly negative on lack of foreign aid

In January, Ukraine’s financial account turned significantly negative while the current account balance improved markedly.The current-account deficit improved to US$0.5bn in January thanks to a better balance of trade in goods. Export of goods was up 12% YoY while imports surprisingly declined 1%. The balance of trade in services was little changed in December, but improved substantially vs January 2023, which reflects a decline in expenditures of Ukrainian refugees abroad. Migrant incomes fell 17% YoY, but still offset more than a third of the trade deficit. Transfers to government were insignificant as Ukraine did not receive any new grant funding from the US.The financial account was negative at US$1.4bn, the largest deficit since September 2022. FX cash outflows from banks (the largest channel of private capital flight) increased in January, while flows through other channels remained little changed. Unlike in previous months, Ukraine did not receive any sizeable loans in January 2024, as Ukraine’s allies were finalizing formalities to unlock funding in the following months.

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ICU view: January balance-of-payments data are not indicative of the trends through end-2024. We expect the current account deficit to widen in money terms in subsequent months on the growing shortfall of external trade. Meanwhile, the financial account is expected to turn positive as of March as Ukraine is expected to receive the first tranche of the EU loan. We project Ukraine’s 2024 current-account deficit at 5.2% of GDP, little changed vs 2023. At the same time, it is going to be fully covered by the financial account surplus. We, thus, expect relatively stable NBU reserves and exchange rate during 2024.

Economics: Ukraine’s public debt little changed in January

Ukraine’s public debt was down 0.3% in US$ terms in January to US$144.9bn.The government raised only nominal volume of new debt from its foreign partners in January and also marginally increased local debt.

ICU view: January statistics are not indicative of a further trend through end-2024. While the public debt is also likely to stay nearly flat in February, it will start growing from March as Ukraine is scheduled to receive sizeable loans from the EU and other international partners. We expect an end-2024 debt-to-GDP level close to 90%, up from about 83‒84% at end-2023.

Read the full report here.

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Pinnacle Financial Partners Conference: CEO touts merger culture, 9%-11% loan growth, $250M synergies

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Pinnacle Financial Partners Conference: CEO touts merger culture, 9%-11% loan growth, 0M synergies
Pinnacle Financial Partners (NASDAQ:PNFP) executives emphasized cultural alignment, integration planning, and continued growth expectations following the company’s recently completed merger, during a conference fireside chat featuring President and CEO Kevin Blair and CFO Jamie Gregory. Culture int
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Why Most Millionaires Don’t Feel Wealthy — and What It Really Takes to Feel Financially Secure

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Why Most Millionaires Don’t Feel Wealthy — and What It Really Takes to Feel Financially Secure

(Image credit: Getty Images)

Becoming a millionaire was once considered a clear sign of financial success. Many view it as a milestone that promises comfort, security and even a sense of arrival. But for many Americans today, crossing the seven-figure net-worth mark doesn’t necessarily translate into feeling wealthy.

A growing body of research shows that many millionaires still worry about retirement, healthcare costs and whether their money will last. At the same time, Americans’ definition of wealth has shifted upward as inflation, longer life expectancies and rising housing costs reshape financial expectations.

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Calls for rent help, financial assistance have spiked during ICE surge in Minnesota

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Calls for rent help, financial assistance have spiked during ICE surge in Minnesota

Operation Metro Surge, which sent a record number of immigration agents to Minnesota, may be nearing its end, but nonprofits that receive calls for assistance say there will likely be ripple effects felt for weeks and months to come. 

HOME Line, which has a free legal hotline for renters, said January was its busiest month ever for new people reaching out by phone and email with questions. 

Compared to the same time period last year, there was a 116% spike in inquiries about financial aid.

“That’s kind of unheard of,” said Eric Hauge, co-executive director of HOME Line, a tenant advocacy organization that has been around for more than three decades. “Even during the first months of the pandemic, we didn’t get those kind of numbers for financial aid questions. So it’s very clear that this is tied to this surge.”

Hauge said the stories callers have shared showcase an economic crisis: People are fearful of leaving their homes, regardless of their immigration status. Others have lost their jobs. The primary income providers of the household have been detained, so their families are falling behind on their bills. 

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The increase in requests seeking help in January came a month after the year ended with more than 25,000 evictions filed in Minnesota in 2025, which Hauge said is the highest the organization has ever seen.

He explained that evictions “trail harm,” so the volume of calls about financial assistance could indicate a wave of evictions could be coming. Having that on an individual’s record is destabilizing in the near term, as the person loses their housing, but it can also be devastating in the future.

Under state law, there is a 14-day pre-eviction notice required for nonpayment of rent, which delays the impact.

“There was already an eviction crisis to begin with, and this is making that even worse,” Hauge told WCCO News in an interview Friday. 

Separately, Greater Twin Cities United Way tracked a similar trend of requests for financial assistance to its 211 helpline. Calls and texts related to housing stability are up more than 103% and rental assistance inquiries increased 235%. 

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The community needs in response to the ICE surge are already prompting discussions about policy proposals at the Minnesota State Capitol, where the Legislature will begin the 2026 session next week.

Among the DFL lawmakers’ ideas they vow to bring forward are emergency rental assistance and an eviction moratorium. Gov. Tim Walz is proposing $10 million in forgivable loans for small businesses that took a financial hit. 

“There is massive economic destabilization happening because of the actions of ICE that’s affecting communities in a very broad way and Minnesotans in a broad way,” DFL Rep. Mike Howard, co-chair of the Minnesota House Housing Finance and Policy committee, said during a news conference on Jan. 21. “Specifically, Minnesotans are facing potential challenges with making rent because of how many businesses are shuttered and families unable to get to work to care for loved ones.”

Any measure will need bipartisan support in a divided Capitol, where Republicans and Democrats share power in a tied House. GOP House Speaker Lisa Demuth said in an interview this week that she thinks a drawdown of the number of federal agents in the state would “take the legislative pressure off” of the Legislature responding. 

Hauge noted that there have been many grassroots mutual aid efforts to get food to families and assist with paying for their rent, in addition to nonprofit groups working to plug those gaps. But he argues government intervention is necessary given the scope of the impact. 

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“Some of that is working, but it does not replace the role that the government has in an emergency, in a crisis — which we are in,” he said. 

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