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Financial account significantly negative.

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Financial account significantly negative.

Bonds: Debt rollover ratio remains decent YTD

The Ministry of Finance refinanced 90% of debt redemptions in February in all currencies; however, the rollover ratio YTD exceeds 100%.At last week’s primary auction, the MoF raised UAH11bn (US$287m) without changes in interest rates. This was one of the largest weekly borrowings this year. Last week’s proceeds were split almost equally between local and hard currencies. See details in the auction review.Thanks to large volumes of UAH borrowings in February, the total monthly refinancing level in all currencies was 90%. YTD, the total rollover rate stood at 119%, including 88% in US dollars and 93% in euros. Borrowings continue to exceed repayments only in local currency. The rollover ratio was 138% in February and 190% YTD.Due to significant redemptions of USD-denominated securities last week, the volume of domestic bonds outstanding slid in February by 0.2%. Except for banks, portfolios of all bondholder groups declined.During March, the Ministry must repay UAH18bn (approximately US$467m) of UAH debt (including UAH16bn next week and UAH2bn at the end of the month) and US$430m in FX-denominated bills (in two weeks). So, in preparation for significant repayments, the MoF has added a new US dollar issue to today’s offering and will, thus, offer USD-denominated bills three times in March.

ICU view: The MoF has already refinanced all scheduled for January and February domestic debt redemptions, largely thanks to UAH notes. It will likely try to step up FX borrowings in view of upcoming sizeable redemptions in March to ensure the rollover for FX instruments is at least 100%. April’s schedule is very light on redemptions with only UAH2.5bn scheduled, so the Ministry will be accumulating liquidity for May repayments when UAH40bn (about US$1bn) and EUR277m are to be redeemed.

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Bonds: Investors wait for signals from MoF

Ukrainian Eurobond prices rose significantly last week in anticipation of the start of debt restructuring negotiations.Last week, Ukrainian Eurobond prices rose by an average of 9.6%. The prices shifted to 26‒32 cents per dollar, and the price range for Ukrainian Eurobonds with different maturities narrowed to 11.3%. The VRI’s price increased by 4% to 47 cents per dollar of notional value. The EMBI index increased by 0.2% last week.

ICU view: Last week, investors were actively discussing rumours of an imminent start to negotiations on restructuring Eurobonds. Despite lack of new material information about possible restructuring terms, bondholders were broadly optimistic and took the rare signals from the government as a sign that a full-fledged restructuring rather than extension of a standstill agreement looms.

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FX: FX market balance improves again

The demand for hard currency decreased last week, which allowed the NBU to reduce its interventions and strengthen the official hryvnia exchange rate.In the interbank FX market, the purchase of foreign currency by bank clients (legal entities) decreased by 20% last week. At the same time, hard currency sales increased by 13%, implying net sale of foreign currency of US$38m. The official hryvnia exchange rate strengthened by 0.5% last week to UAH38.16/US$ for yesterday.Net purchases of hard currency in the retail FX market decreased to US$203m. The cash exchange rate in systemically important banks strengthened by 0.2% to UAH38.0‒38.6/US$.The overall improvement in the FX market balance allowed the NBU to reduce its FX sale interventions to US$321m.

ICU view: With no significant demand for hard currency from government entities for import contracts, the FX market balance improved. Despite the relatively favourable situation and below-average deficit in the market, the NBU gives little room to the hryvnia to strengthen, likely indicating its strong preference for gradual hryvnia depreciation in the mid-term.

Economics: Financial account significantly negative on lack of foreign aid

In January, Ukraine’s financial account turned significantly negative while the current account balance improved markedly.The current-account deficit improved to US$0.5bn in January thanks to a better balance of trade in goods. Export of goods was up 12% YoY while imports surprisingly declined 1%. The balance of trade in services was little changed in December, but improved substantially vs January 2023, which reflects a decline in expenditures of Ukrainian refugees abroad. Migrant incomes fell 17% YoY, but still offset more than a third of the trade deficit. Transfers to government were insignificant as Ukraine did not receive any new grant funding from the US.The financial account was negative at US$1.4bn, the largest deficit since September 2022. FX cash outflows from banks (the largest channel of private capital flight) increased in January, while flows through other channels remained little changed. Unlike in previous months, Ukraine did not receive any sizeable loans in January 2024, as Ukraine’s allies were finalizing formalities to unlock funding in the following months.

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ICU view: January balance-of-payments data are not indicative of the trends through end-2024. We expect the current account deficit to widen in money terms in subsequent months on the growing shortfall of external trade. Meanwhile, the financial account is expected to turn positive as of March as Ukraine is expected to receive the first tranche of the EU loan. We project Ukraine’s 2024 current-account deficit at 5.2% of GDP, little changed vs 2023. At the same time, it is going to be fully covered by the financial account surplus. We, thus, expect relatively stable NBU reserves and exchange rate during 2024.

Economics: Ukraine’s public debt little changed in January

Ukraine’s public debt was down 0.3% in US$ terms in January to US$144.9bn.The government raised only nominal volume of new debt from its foreign partners in January and also marginally increased local debt.

ICU view: January statistics are not indicative of a further trend through end-2024. While the public debt is also likely to stay nearly flat in February, it will start growing from March as Ukraine is scheduled to receive sizeable loans from the EU and other international partners. We expect an end-2024 debt-to-GDP level close to 90%, up from about 83‒84% at end-2023.

Read the full report here.

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Finance

Proximo Congress 2026: US Energy & Infrastructure Finance | Insights | Mayer Brown

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Proximo Congress 2026: US Energy & Infrastructure Finance | Insights | Mayer Brown

Mayer Brown is a proud sponsor of Proximo Congress 2026. This senior meeting of the US energy, infrastructure, and digital infrastructure finance community is shaped around the questions credit and investment committees are actually asking in 2026: how asset classes are converging, how risk is being priced in a recalibrated policy and geopolitical environment, and how public and private capital are being structured together to deliver projects at scale.

Mayer Brown has also been recognized for three separate awards which will be presented during the event. These awards include:

  • Proximo North America Transport Deal of the Year 2025 – SR 400 Peach Partners
  • Proximo North America Rail Deal of the Year 2025 – Brightline West
  • Proximo North America LNG Deal of the Year 2025 – Port Arthur LNG 2

For more information, visit the event website. 

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Finance

What are nonconforming mortgages and what are the risks?

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What are nonconforming mortgages and what are the risks?

If you have ever taken out a mortgage, you’ll know there are a lot of requirements to meet. You may need to put down a certain amount and have a debt-to-income ratio below a certain threshold. You may also run into limits on how much you can borrow or what sources of income the lender will count.

These rules do not apply to all mortgages — just to conforming mortgages, which is what the majority of borrowers take out. However, mortgage lenders are increasingly offering what are known as nonconforming loans, or mortgages that do not “comply with every one of the strict standards put in place after the housing crisis,” said The Wall Street Journal. While “still a small portion,” the “share of mortgages using alternative lending practices” has “doubled in size over the past three years.”

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Financial Stress Is Changing What Consumers Value in Credit Cards | PYMNTS.com

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Financial Stress Is Changing What Consumers Value in Credit Cards | PYMNTS.com

What U.S. consumers ask of their credit cards has changed. For financially stressed households, it has little to do with rewards.

As more households turn to credit cards to manage liquidity and cover everyday expenses, a new set of practical concerns is driving card behavior: Can the card help avoid a missed payment? Can it make balances easier to track? Can it provide enough visibility into available credit and upcoming obligations to help manage an uncertain month?

Those concerns are beginning to reorder what consumers value most in their credit card relationships.

That evidence is clear in “Winning Top of Wallet: How Credit Card Apps Shape Choice,” a PYMNTS Intelligence and Elan Credit Card report examining how consumers use mobile apps to manage spending, payments and engagement across their credit card portfolios. The report found 30% of consumers primarily use credit cards to build credit or extend purchasing power, while another 22% primarily use cards for cash flow management, together outweighing rewards-based usage.

The divide is more pronounced among financially stressed households. Among consumers living paycheck to paycheck and struggling to pay bills, 40% cited credit dependence as their primary reason for using credit cards. Just 11% pointed to rewards.

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For a growing share of consumers, credit cards are functioning less like discretionary spending products and more like liquidity management tools.

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What Matters Most

That evolution is also changing which app features matter most.

Among cash flow-focused consumers, 31% said scheduling payments or autopay encouraged them to spend more on a card, while 27% cited alerts and reminders. Credit-motivated consumers showed similarly high engagement with tools tied to available credit visibility and payment timing.

Rewards still influence spending behavior, particularly among financially stable households. Half of consumers who prioritize rewards said tracking or redeeming rewards through a mobile app encouraged them to spend more on the card.

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But the report suggests that financial stress changes the hierarchy of engagement. As household budgets tighten, rewards become less central than predictability, visibility and control.

That shift helps explain why mobile apps increasingly influence which cards become top of wallet.

Among credit-dependent consumers, 77% said the quality of a credit card app influences which card they use most often. Credit-dependent consumers also reported the highest app adoption levels, with 77% using their primary card’s app regularly or occasionally.

The competition, in other words, is no longer simply about card acquisition. It is about becoming the card consumers rely on to navigate everyday financial management.

Digital Experience Becomes a Financial Retention Tool

The report also suggests that digital experience increasingly shapes retention risk.

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Nearly 1 in 4 cardholders said a poor app or digital experience contributed to reduced card use. Among Gen Z consumers, that figure climbed to 45%.

At the same time, 7 in 10 cardholders said app quality influences which card becomes their primary card, underscoring how mobile interfaces are becoming embedded directly into consumer payment behavior.

For issuers, the implications extend beyond app design.

Consumers living paycheck to paycheck hold nearly as many credit cards as financially stable households, meaning financially stressed consumers are not disengaging from credit entirely. Instead, they are becoming more selective about which cards feel easiest to manage and most useful during periods of financial pressure.

Rewards and promotional offers still matter, particularly among affluent and financially stable consumers. But for a growing segment of households, the most valuable card may be the one that reduces uncertainty around balances, payment timing and available liquidity.

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In a crowded multi-card market, financial visibility itself is becoming part of the product.

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