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China’s growth enigma

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China’s growth enigma

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The Chinese economy grew by 5.2 per cent last year, according to official statistics. But for many in business, it probably did not feel like that from the evidence on the streets of Beijing and other large cities.

Restaurants were not busy, shops were vacant and there were widespread reports of property prices falling more than the official numbers. Rhodium Group, a research company, argued in December that most economic indicators in 2023 suggested actual growth was more like 1.5 per cent. There were bright spots, it said, such as electric vehicle production, but these could not offset the “general malaise”.

For business, the divide between such estimates and official data on how fast the world’s second-largest economy can grow this year and beyond has become an important issue for their global expansion plans. An annual survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in China of its members found just over half were planning to increase their investments in the country this year, a little up from last year. For slightly more than a quarter of this group, expectations of faster economic growth in 2024 were an important factor.

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The question of measuring that growth though is becoming increasingly politicised as Beijing seeks to steer the narrative away from criticisms that its growth model is overly dependent on state-driven investment rather than consumption.

In its annual report on China released on Friday, the IMF said that the country’s post-pandemic recovery last year was “subdued” as property and weak exports and investment weighed on growth. It also forecast slower growth in 2024.

This provoked an indignant response from Chinese officials. IMF staff should provide a “more appropriate forecast” to help China “stabilise” confidence “at home and abroad”, said a statement from Zhengxin Zhang, China IMF executive director, that accompanied the IMF’s report.

So who is right? At 5.2 per cent year-on-year, Beijing’s official 2023 gross domestic growth figure is the lowest in decades, excluding the pandemic years of 2020 and 2022, But is still sizeable for an economy of China’s heft and sophistication.

The issue for China though is that the rebound might have been expected to be more robust from 2022 — a year when Covid lockdowns and rigid travel restrictions hit service industries and supply chains and deepened the slowdown in the property sector.

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While growth was strong in the first quarter of 2023, it required increasing government support as the year wore on. Consumption, boosted by the release of pent-up demand from lockdowns, made up most of the growth in 2023. However, consumer confidence remained well below pre-pandemic levels towards the end of the year, the IMF said. It estimated that net foreign direct investment also declined from 2022.

Lower business and market confidence was reflected in capital markets. China’s CSI 300 stock index has lost 5.5 per cent this year, compounding falls in 2023. The benchmark is down 45 per cent from 2021 highs. And the AmCham China survey showing that while profitability of its members had improved in China from 2022, most companies were breaking even or lossmaking, further suggesting less than robust growth.

The government insists that everything is going to plan. Yet domestically it has cracked down on dissenting opinions about the economy, deepening long-running scepticism about the accuracy of official data.

Some economists believe that when calculating real GDP growth from nominal data, Beijing is able to adjust the deflator, the broadest measure of prices in the economy, to hit its targets. “Some estimates suggest that official Chinese data overstate its GDP by around 20 per cent,” Oxford Economics wrote in December.

For 2024, the IMF is forecasting 4.6 per cent growth and then about 3.5 per cent by 2028 on “weak productivity and ageing”. These forecasts are broadly in line with market expectations. Oxford Economics is predicting growth to fall to about 3.5 per cent by 2030 and just 2 per cent by 2040, possibly delaying the day that China’s economy will converge with the US in terms of size.

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China’s Zhang responded that the country still has many growth drivers — the population is getting older but more educated, urbanisation has more room to grow and Beijing is investing in science and technology. “China will continue to be the vital engine of global economic growth,” insisted Zhang. Global boardrooms are hoping he is right. But the bar is rising for China to prove it.

joseph.leahy@ft.com

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Investigators are using a tracking device called a “signal sniffer” that can detect signals emitted from electronic devices as the search for Nancy Guthrie continues in its third week.  

David Kennedy, a former NSA hacker and inventor of the signal sniffer being used in the investigation, told CBS News that because Guthrie’s pacemaker was disconnected from the app on her phone, it indicates the device is equipped with Bluetooth Low Energy technology, a power setting designed so the device will last multiple years. 

Nancy Guthrie, the 84-year-old mother of “Today” show co-host Savannah Guthrie, was reported missing when she failed to show up for church on Feb. 1, after vanishing in the middle of the night from her home in Tucson, Arizona, in an apparent abduction. Authorities said Guthrie’s pacemaker was disconnected from the pacemaker app on her cellphone at 2:28 a.m.

Kennedy said Bluetooth Low Energy only has a 10- to 15-foot radius, but with signal amplifiers and high-gain antennas, the radius can extend to several hundred feet.  

He said after conducting a test at his home using a non-commercial drone and off-the-shelf items to modify it, he was able to extend the device’s detection range to about 800 feet. 

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“With amplification, with the ability to deploy things like drones or leveraging helicopters, they should be able to cover a lot larger area and then really home in just from a few meters to the actual signal itself,” Kennedy told CBS News. 

Since the pacemaker sends out a Bluetooth signal every two to three minutes, the signal sniffer can pick up its location, Kennedy said, which law enforcement would be able to view and trace using Nancy Guthrie’s phone. 

The tracking tool was mounted on a helicopter on Monday, law enforcement sources told CBS News. The helicopter carrying the device was flying slowly at a low altitude over the area where investigators are still hoping to find Guthrie, the sources said. 

Kennedy said he believes the helicopter was used as a quick stopgap to get a general location to see what was happening in the area. He said a signal sniffer could be fixed to a drone or a car, though a drone is more efficient because it can cover greater distances faster, and that using a helicopter or car could interfere with the signal due to metal buildings or concrete walls. 

Since signal sniffers are considered a new capability for law enforcement, Kennedy said officials don’t have massive fleets of drones being used, and that it will take time to build out the infrastructure to do so. He said if there were around 50 to 60 drones covering 300 to 800 feet, it would speed up the process.

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“You can really cut that time down pretty substantially across the board, you’re probably talking, a day or a few days or a maximum of two weeks of being able to cover 120-foot-mile radius, to be able to actually identify it,” Kennedy said. “It really comes down to manpower, drone operators [and] the drone technology itself.”

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The U.S. falters again in figure skating, but the women still have time to make it up

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The U.S. falters again in figure skating, but the women still have time to make it up

Amber Glenn reacts to her score in the Olympic women’s short program event on Tuesday. She got docked for landing a double loop instead of a triple loop, despite an otherwise strong performance.

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Want more Olympics updates? Subscribe here to get our newsletter, Rachel Goes to the Games, delivered to your inbox for a behind-the-scenes look at the 2026 Milan Cortina Winter Olympics.

MILAN — Figure skating at these Winter Olympics has been full of dramatic twists. And Tuesday, the first night of the women’s competition, was no different: The U.S. women all qualified for Thursday’s medal event. But they are considerably farther behind than expected.

The “Blade Angels,” as they have been dubbed, began Tuesday night’s short program as the nation’s best hope at an individual medal in this event in two decades. But only two of them finished in the top 10.

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That ups the pressure heading into Thursday’s free skate, which makes up the other half of their overall score.

Reigning world champion Alysa Liu stands in third place, behind Ami Nakai and Kaori Sakamoto of Japan.

Towards the very end of the night, Liu, 20, skated a powerful routine to Laufey’s “Promise” that earned her a season-best score and moved her toward the top of the leaderboard.

Alysa Liu competes in her short prog

Alysa Liu’s short program on Tuesday earned her a season-best score.

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She was followed by Isabeau Levito, 18, whose elegant routine to “Almost In Your Arms, Zou Bisou Bisou” landed her in fifth place, with a few skaters left to go. She ultimately finished the night in eighth place.

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The penultimate skater was Amber Glenn, the three-time reigning U.S. champion, making her Olympic debut at age 26.

Glenn kicked off her program — set to Madonna’s “Like a Prayer” — with a clean triple axel, a rare feat for women at the Olympics. The rest of her routine was strong until the very last jump, which she landed as a double rather than the required triple, docking her otherwise strong score.

She left the ice in tears, and put her head in her hands after receiving a score of 67.39, as a hush briefly came over the packed crowd. Glenn, one of the medal favorites in the entire women’s field, finished the night in 13th place.

Liu was talking to reporters below the rink as Glenn took the ice, with her routine — and reaction — visible on a TV screen. Liu seemed concerned for her teammate and friend.

“She’s gone through so much and she works so freaking hard … I just want her to be happy,” Liu said of Glenn. “Like, that’s genuinely all I want. And so I’ll be seeing her later.”

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Glenn has been an outspoken advocate for mental health, publicly sharing about her struggles with anxiety and depression throughout her career. She did not take questions from the press at the end of the night.

The bulk of U.S. skating fans’ hopes for a women’s medal now rest with Liu. It’s an ironic twist for the skater who retired as a teenager, then returned with renewed emphasis on creativity over competition.

After her performance on Tuesday, Liu spoke excitedly of her hopes of being invited to perform at the Olympic exhibition gala this weekend, teasing a “really cool gala program” she’s been working on that’s “basically done.”

“I don’t need a medal,” she said. “I just need to be here, and I just need to be present. And I need people to see what I do next.”

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Rev. Jesse Jackson, a civil rights icon, dies at 84

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Rev. Jesse Jackson, a civil rights icon, dies at 84

In the first race, he won more than 18% of the primary vote and a handful of primaries and caucuses.

“Merely by being black and forcing other candidates to consider his very real potential to garner black votes, which they need, Jackson has had an impact,” read a 1984 New York Times profile.

Four years later, he built on that success by winning 11 primaries and caucuses.

Jackson began his work as an organizer with the Congress of Racial Equality, participating in marches and sit-ins. He attended North Carolina A&T State University and graduated with a degree in sociology. He began rallying student support for King during his divinity studies at Chicago Theological Seminary and participated in the 1965 Selma-to-Montgomery march in Alabama.

Shortly afterward, Jackson joined the Southern Christian Leadership Conference, or SCLC, to work alongside King full time. He drew praise from King as a young man running the SCLC’s economic development and empowerment program, Operation Breadbasket — “we knew he was going to do a good job, but he’s done better than a good job,” King said.

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Jackson shakes hands at the 20th anniversary commemoration of the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.’s Freedom March, also known as the “March on Washington.”Bettmann / Bettmann Archive

As he grew as an organizer, Jackson married Jacqueline Brown, who survives him, in 1962. They have five children, including former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., D-Ill.

Jackson, who was at the motel in Memphis, Tennessee, with King when he was assassinated in 1968, did not let up after King’s death. He took his vision for Black liberation even further by founding People United to Save Humanity, or PUSH, in 1971. He resigned from the SCLC that year to start PUSH after he was suspended from the organization; he was accused of using the SCLC for personal gain. PUSH worked to improve economic conditions of Black communities in the country and later expanded to politics with direct action campaigns and social areas through a weekly radio show and awards for Black people.

Jackson’s 1984 presidential bid prompted the launch of his National Rainbow Coalition, which opposed President Ronald Reagan’s policies and advocated for social programs, voting rights and affirmative action. PUSH and the National Rainbow Coalition merged in 1996 and are now the Rainbow/PUSH Coalition.

His 1984 campaign angered some Democrats who said his ideas were too left-leaning and would hurt the party in the general election. Jackson dismissed the concerns.

“The great responsibility that we have today is to put the poor and the near-poor back on front of the American agenda,” Jackson said of the 1984 campaign in a 1996 interview with PBS. “This is a dangerous mission, and yet it’s a necessary mission!”

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African American Activist Jesse Jackson Announces His Candidacy
Jackson announces his candidacy for the Democratic presidential nomination on Nov. 3, 1983.Bettmann / Bettmann Archive

Jackson’s 1984 campaign was marred when he referred to Jewish people as “hymies” and called New York City “hymietown” in a Washington Post interview. He initially denied having made the remarks and accused Jewish people of targeting his campaign. He later admitted having used the slur and offered an impassioned apology.

In 1991, Jackson was elected as one of Washington, D.C.’s two “shadow senators” to lobby for D.C. statehood and served one term.

Jackson also helped win the release of several detained and captured Americans around the world. In 1999, he negotiated the release of three U.S. soldiers being held in Yugoslavia. President Bill Clinton awarded him the Presidential Medal of Freedom for those efforts a year later.

Jackson’s other successes included winning the release of a U.S. Navy pilot in 1984 from Syrian captors after his plane was shot down, at least 16 Americans held in Cuba in 1984, 700 women and children from Iraq in 1990 and two Gambian Americans from prison in the West African country in 2012.

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