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A recent Fox News Voter Analysis survey revealed that some Democrats in New Hampshire aren’t too excited about the prospect of President Biden serving as their party’s nominee in the 2024 presidential election, posing what could be significant challenges to his reelection bid.
The Fox News Voter Analysis, a survey of more than 900 New Hampshire Democrat primary voters, was released Wednesday. More than half (55%) of the respondents said they would be satisfied with Biden as the eventual Democrat nominee, with 13% saying they would be dissatisfied enough that they would not support him in the November election.
Iowa and New Hampshire have historically been the first states in the Democrats’ election process. However, Biden and the DNC attempted to change the primary calendar this year to kick off with South Carolina, a state that propelled the president to victory in 2020, to try and increase racial diversity in the election process.
That decision created a rift between national Democrats and Democrat voters in the battleground state, which has favored left-leaning candidates in recent national elections.
BIDEN WINS NEW HAMPSHIRE DEMOCRAT PRIMARY AFTER WRITE-IN CAMPAIGN
President Biden (Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images)
Biden won New Hampshire in the 2020 presidential election, depriving then-President Trump of the state’s four electoral votes. Voters in the state also maintained their support for the Democratic Party in the 2016 election, when then-candidate Hillary Clinton narrowly defeated Trump to earn the electoral votes.
Prior to Biden’s write-in primary victory in the Granite State on Tuesday night, the Democratic National Committee called the New Hampshire Democratic Party’s primary process “detrimental.”
Highlighting the findings from the Fox News Voter Analysis, Colin Reed, a Republican strategist and co-founder of South and Hill Strategies, told Fox News Digital that it “comes as no surprise given [Biden’s] disdain toward the state.”
Referencing Biden’s “humiliating fifth-place finish” in the New Hampshire Democrat primary election a little less than four years ago, Reed said, “Biden has been hell-bent on punishing New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary. Even worse was the willingness of New Hampshire Democrats and their state party to stand idly by as their president and party insiders destroyed a long and storied tradition.”
The findings from the survey, according to another political strategist, show that Democrats in the state “are not particularly excited about another Biden-Harris term” and could possibly stay at home on Election Day.
“New Hampshirites tend to be very practical, level-headed people. They realize that Joe Biden is far too old and lacks the cognitive abilities to be president of the United States,” Kristin Tate, a Republican strategist and columnist for The Messenger, told Fox News Digital. “At the same time, folks in New Hampshire (including registered Democrats) look around and see that every aspect of American life has degraded under the Biden administration. Inflation is still high, our southern border is wide open, and war is breaking out around the globe.”
NEW HAMPSHIRE VOTERS FRUSTRATED WITH BIDEN, DNC FOR SKIPPING STATE: ‘WON’T GIVE US THE TIME OF DAY’
Voters are photographed at Bedford High School on Jan. 23, 2024, in Bedford, New Hampshire.
“Democrats should be worried. Their core voters strongly dislike Donald Trump but are not particularly excited about another Biden-Harris term,” Tate added. “Ultimately, some percentage of those voters may end up just staying home on voting day. Given how thin the margins were in 2020, this could make all the difference in the outcome of the 2024 election.”
In addition to economic hardships, Tate, who has grown to understand the inner workings of New Hampshire politics throughout the years, suggested Granite State residents could be turned off by another Biden term in the White House after “seeing the impacts” of the crisis that has unfolded at the southern border.
“For the first time in my lifetime, I am hearing New Hampshire residents talking about the border crisis with a heightened level of concern,” she said. “Until recently, the open border was mostly a theoretical discussion for most East Coasters. But now that Texas Gov. Greg Abbott is sending thousands of migrants to East Coast areas, including Boston, residents in the Northeast are seeing the impacts of the border crisis firsthand.”
Despite what some Republicans believe should be a concern for Biden as he moves forward in his bid for a second consecutive term in the White House, Kevin Walling, a Democrat campaign strategist and former Biden 2020 campaign surrogate, believes Biden will ultimately receive support from a near totality of Democrats in New Hampshire.
Given the stakes of a Trump-Biden rematch this year, Walling said he believes “many of those 13% of Democratic primary voters will come home to the Biden-Harris ticket.”
Other recent Fox News Voter Analysis findings revealed that 53% of Republican primary voters would be satisfied with Trump as their nominee, with 35% dissatisfied enough not to vote for him.
Former President Trump and President Biden (Chip Somodevilla | Julia Nikhinson/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
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Due to those findings, Walling believes it’s Republicans, not Democrats, that should be worried ahead of the 2024 presidential election.
“That should be a flashing red light to the RNC and GOP strategists and doesn’t even factor in the high number of unregistered and independent voters who turned out last night in support of former Gov. Nikki Haley; that said they would back Biden if it becomes a 2020 rematch,” he said.
Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.
Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.
Local News
After nearly four decades, a man whose skull was discovered in the New Hampshire woods has been identified.
Warren Kuchinsky was born in 1952 and was last known to be alive in the mid-1970s, New Hampshire Attorney General John Formella and New Hampshire State Police Colonel Mark Hall said in a statement. In 1986, his skull was found in a wooded area in the town of Bristol.
At the time, investigators weren’t able to identify whose skull it was, according to officials. Last year, however, the Office of the Chief Medical Examiner partnered with the DNA Doe Project, a nonprofit organization, to solve the case using forensic genetic genealogy techniques.
Kuchinsky’s identity was confirmed through DNA testing of a surviving family member, according to officials. There is no evidence that his death was caused by foul play, according to the statement.
Founded in 2017, the DNA Doe Project partners with law enforcement, medical examiners, and volunteer genealogists to apply investigative genealogy to John and Jane Doe cases. By analyzing DNA profiles and building family trees from publicly available genetic databases and historical records, the organization has helped solve more than 250 cases nationwide.
“We are honored to have partnered with the State of New Hampshire on this case,” DNA Doe Project Team Leader Lisa Ivany said in the statement. “Through the power of investigative genetic genealogy and the dedication of our volunteer genealogists, we were able to develop a critical lead in less than 24 hours. We truly hope that this identification brings long-awaited answers to Mr. Kuchinsky’s family.”
Initial DNA testing turned up only distant matches, so the DNA Doe Project selected the case to be worked on at a virtual retreat in May 2025, according to the organization’s case profile. Over the course of a weekend, more than 40 genealogists from the U.S., Canada, England, and Scotland collaborated virtually to work on the case.
Within hours, the team discovered that the unidentified man had roots in New Hampshire and Quebec, according to the profile. They later zeroed in on Kuchinsky, who had attended school in Plymouth, N.H., but had no official proof of life past 1970.
“This identification reflects the power of partnership and scientific advancement,” Formella said in the statement. “The dedication of the Office of the Chief Medical Examiner, the investigative support of the New Hampshire State Police, and the extraordinary work of the DNA Doe Project have restored a name to an individual who had been unidentified for nearly 40 years. We are grateful for their professionalism and commitment.”
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The proposal would fine transgender people up to $5,000 for using bathrooms aligned with their gender identity.
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Bathroom bans targeting transgender people have been spreading rapidly across the United States. In previous years, adult bathroom bans in public buildings were limited to a handful of states with extreme laws. This year, they have become one of the primary vehicles for anti-trans legislation nationwide. Kansas was the first to act, passing a bathroom bounty hunter system and invalidating transgender people’s IDs. Idaho and Missouri began advancing their own bills. Now, the New Hampshire House of Representatives has passed its own version — one of the most extreme in the United States, which states that a trans person using the bathroom of their gender identity is a crime under the state civil rights act, violations of which carries hefty penalties. The bill passed 181-164 on Wednesday night, just weeks after Governor Kelly Ayotte vetoed a separate bathroom ban. Republicans are now sending her something far more aggressive — raising the question of whether they are trying to move the goalposts or simply daring her to veto again.
“Notwithstanding any other provision of law, with the exception of RSA 21:3, RSA 21:54, and paragraph II below, all multi-user facilities, including bathrooms, restrooms, and locker rooms located in buildings owned, leased, or operated by any municipality shall be used based on the individual’s biological sex,” reads the new bill. This prohibition is expansive: it applies to parks, rest stops, airports, civic buildings, and more, and could leave transgender people struggling to find a public place to use the restroom across the state.
The bill contains a novel enforcement mechanism not seen in any other state. It declares that a transgender person “asserting” that their gender identity allows them to use the bathroom is against the law under the state civil rights act, turning civil rights protections that were meant to be protective of transgender people into a weapon against them. “It shall be unlawful for any person to assert that their gender identity is a sex other than that defined in RSA 21:3 for the purposes of accessing places or services restricted on the basis of sex,” reads the bill. Such violations could result in fines of up to $5,000 per incident and even jail time if a person violates a resulting court injunction by continuing to use the restroom.
The bill also contains provisions for private businesses. It permits any owner or operator of a “place of public accommodation” — a category that under New Hampshire law includes hotels, restaurants, theaters, retail stores, bars, and concert venues — to restrict bathrooms by assigned sex at birth. The bill then immunizes those businesses from discrimination claims: “Adoption or enforcement of a policy pursuant to this section shall not be deemed discrimination under RSA 354-A or any other state law,” it reads.
A separate bill, HB 1217, also passed on Wednesday. That bill permits governmental buildings and businesses to classify bathrooms and locker rooms by assigned sex at birth — similar to the bathroom bans Ayotte has already vetoed. It passed by an even wider margin, 187-163. It contains no enforcement mechanism, but rather, states that bathroom bans and sports bans are not discriminatory towards transgender people under New Hampshire law.
The bills are part of a larger movement towards bathroom bans for transgender people. Just last month, Kansas passed a bathroom ban that allows every citizen in the state to become a bounty hunter, where reporting transgender people in bathrooms can net them $1,000 per trans person caught. This law also invalidated trans people’s drivers licenses in the state. Meanwhile, Idaho and Missouri are both advancing extreme anti-trans bathroom bans of their own, with Idaho’s ban even applying to private businesses, making it against the law for a private business to allow a trans person to use the bathroom that matches their gender identity.
The bills are substantially more extreme than the one vetoed by Governor Ayotte just weeks ago. In a veto statement of a bathroom ban last month, Ayotte stated, “I believe there are important and legitimate privacy and safety concerns raised by biological males using places such as female locker rooms and being placed in female correctional facilities… At the same time, I see that House Bill 148 is overly broad and impractical to enforce, potentially creating an exclusionary environment for some of our citizens.”
It remains unclear why Republicans are pushing an even more extreme version of a bill their own governor has already vetoed three times. The bill still needs to pass the New Hampshire Senate and be signed by Ayotte to become law. One possibility is that the more extreme HB 1442 is designed as cover for HB 1217 — making that bill appear moderate by comparison and improving its chances of earning a signature. Another is that Republicans believe they can pressure Ayotte into signing, or are simply laying the groundwork for an override attempt down the line. Regardless, HB 1442 is one of the most extreme bathroom bans moving through any state legislature in the country, and transgender people across New England will be watching closely as it advances to the Senate.
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