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It’s over, and other takeaways from Trump's defeat of Haley in New Hampshire

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It’s over, and other takeaways from Trump's defeat of Haley in New Hampshire

Former President Trump won the first Republican primary Tuesday in New Hampshire over his closest competitor, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, according to a projection by the Associated Press. Though the outcome was expected, it was significant.

Here are some takeaways.

It’s over

Yes, Haley remains in the race, for now. But Trump’s victory in the first primary state — which happens to have one of the more moderate and least Trump-friendly electorates in the GOP — all but seals hisparty’s nomination, setting up an expected rematch with President Biden.

The not-terribly-competitive nominating contest has underscored how much the GOP has become Trump’s party.

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Trump left office with low approval ratings and two impeachments that followed an unprecedented attempt to overturn a lawful election. But he entered the nominating fight with many of the advantages of an incumbent, then scored wins in both Iowa and New Hampshire, a rare feat for a Republican presidential hopeful.

Endorsements tell part of that story. They don’t often matter, but two recent nods from former opponents demonstrate why Trump has been the default choice from the beginning. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott both got behind Trump soon after they left the race.

Neither man had much personal reason to embrace Trump. The former president relentlessly targeted DeSantis, who entered the race with high approval ratings, calling him “Desanctimonious” and mocking his appearance, among other insults. But both men endorsed Trump for the same reason they held back from attacking his vulnerabilities during the race: GOP voters still adore him. The two believe that if they want to have a future in the party, at least in the near term, they need to stay with Trump.

Does Haley drop out with her home state looming?

Haley has said repeatedly that she will not depart the race after New Hampshire — as she did again Tuesday night after the race was called for Trump.

“New Hampshire is first in the nation, it is not last in the nation. This race is far from over,” she told supporters.

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Most candidates make similar statements until the moment they leave the race. Haley’s underdog strategy depended on winning New Hampshire, which is filled with highly educated Republican and independent voters whom Haley has been seeking.

The race next heads to Nevada and the Virgin Islands, which hold Republican caucuses Feb. 8.

Polls show Haley down by nearly 40 percentage points to Trump in South Carolina, her home state, which holds its Republican primaryFeb. 24. A big loss there would be damaging to her prospects, though not fatal. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio drew only 27% against Trump in his home state in 2016; though he soon exited the presidential race, he won reelection easily to his Senate seat that fall.

But many candidates, including Kamala Harris when she was a California senator, choose to avoid the potential stain on their resume that would come from losing in their home state. They dropped out before any ballots were cast in the 2020 race. In Harris’ case, it paid off with a nomination for vice president, though Haley seems unlikely to get the nod from Trump.

Nikki Haley supporters listen as the candidate speaks after her primary defeat.

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(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)

Another historic moment for a twice-impeached president

Trump’s win Tuesday, coupled with last week’s caucuses victory in Iowa, marked another historic moment: It was the first time he faced voters since leaving office, still refusing to accept the election results while encouraging an angry mob that stormed theCapitol.

He’s facing 91 criminal charges and has threatened, among other things, to terminate the Constitution and give himself dictatorial powers for a day, while claiming that presidents enjoy absolute immunity from prosecution, even for acts that “cross the line.”

The question is a dividing line for many voters. In preliminary network exit polling, 85% of Haley’s voters said Trump, if convicted of a crime, is unfit to be president. Only 11% of Trump’s voters said that.

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Democrats hope voters will start comparing Biden to ‘the alternative’

Biden for months has repeated the aphorism “Don’t compare me to the Almighty, compare me to the alternative.” He argues that his low approval rating — below 40% — will matter less once people zero in on the binary choice between him and Trump.

That process is likely to intensify as Trump gets closer to securing the nomination. The big question is whether the election, now forecast as close, will shift to Biden’s favor when voters take a closer look at Trump. Historically, Trump’s approval rating in polls has dropped as he gets more public exposure.

Turnout for a Trump-Biden rematch could fade

Voters showed up in huge numbers in 2018, 2020 and, in some states, 2022, in part because Trump inspires such strong positive and negative feelings. Abortion also played a large role in 2022, after the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn a constitutional right to the procedure.

Will that fervor persist in November, or are voters too fatigued and uninspired for a likely rematch that has turned off many? That’s one of the biggest questions and one that both parties will pursue now that the general election is taking shape.

Biden needs to shore up support from younger and Black voters, key groups for him in 2020 whose excitement has waned, polls show. Trump needs to minimize losses in the suburbs, where educated Republican women have defected.

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What happens to third parties? Will they fade as usual or play spoiler?

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has been drawing double digits in some polls as an independent candidate. A centrist group called No Labels has been floating a third-party ticket, though no one has signed up to run.

History shows that these candidacies tend to fade by the time voters cast ballots. But they have had an impact, including in 1992, when Ross Perot drew 19% of the vote. Debate continues over which of the two major candidates he hurt worse: Bill Clinton defeated George H.W. Bush with a mere 43% of the popular vote. In 2000, Ralph Nader may have tipped the balance for George W. Bush in his race against Al Gore.

Conventional wisdom holds that Biden will be hurt by a third-party candidate because Trump’s core base is so loyal. But that is unclear, especially in the case of Kennedy, whose conspiratorial views on vaccines and other topics align with those of many Trump supporters.

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Video: Former Presidents Speak at Jesse Jackson’s Memorial

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Video: Former Presidents Speak at Jesse Jackson’s Memorial

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Former Presidents Speak at Jesse Jackson’s Memorial

Barack Obama, Joseph R. Biden Jr. and Bill Clinton were among the dozens of speakers at a public memorial for the late Rev. Jesse Jackson in Chicago on Friday. The event celebrated the civil rights leader’s commitment to public service and racial justice.

“It was because of that path that he had laid, because of his courage, his audacity, that two decades later a young Black senator from Chicago’s South Side would even be taken seriously as a candidate for the presidential nomination. The last time he and I had a chance to visit in person, he was already ailing. It was getting difficult for him to stand, difficult for him to speak. Figured we’d just have a low-key visit. Maybe he’d need some rest. And he starts coming up with this project and this initiative and issues I needed to look into.” “He used his gifts to influence generations, generations of Americans, and countless elected officials including presidents, as you see here today.” “We did not always agree, but I’ll tell you one thing. He made me a better president when I got in office. Because he was always pushing on things and he knew that change came from the outside in.” “In the movements for justice that have grown from the seeds that he tilled. Now, to the world, Jesse Jackson was an ambassador of hope for the oppressed who met with kings and queens and presidents and dictators and clergy of all the great religions. But here in Chicago, he was our neighbor.”

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Barack Obama, Joseph R. Biden Jr. and Bill Clinton were among the dozens of speakers at a public memorial for the late Rev. Jesse Jackson in Chicago on Friday. The event celebrated the civil rights leader’s commitment to public service and racial justice.

By Jorge Mitssunaga

March 6, 2026

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Man convicted of Iran-backed Trump assassination plot compared his plan to Butler shooting: FBI

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Man convicted of Iran-backed Trump assassination plot compared his plan to Butler shooting: FBI

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A Pakistani man convicted Friday in federal court of plotting to assassinate President Donald Trump and other politicians told an FBI agent he thought Iran “was responsible” for the assassination attempt on Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania.

Asif Merchant, 47, told the FBI agent, Jacqueline Smith, that the incident “was the same thing he was sent here to do,” Smith testified during Merchant’s trial. Merchant told jurors the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) sent him on a “mission” to kill U.S. politicians, including by telling him to attend a Republican rally.

Merchant was arrested July 12, 2024, one day prior to the shooting in Butler, where Thomas Crooks fired several shots into a rally crowd, killing one and grazing Trump’s ear. 

The FBI has said repeatedly it found no evidence that Crooks had co-conspirators or that any foreign actors were involved in the incident.

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A sketch showing Asif Merchant, a Pakistani national with alleged ties to Iran, appearing in federal court in Brooklyn, N.Y., Wednesday, March 4, 2026. Merchant was on trial for charges related to a foiled 2024 plot to assassinate a high-profile U.S. politician, identified by defense and law enforcement sources as President Donald Trump. (Christine Cornell)

Merchant, who was found guilty on all charges Friday after fewer than two hours of deliberation, was convicted by a jury in Brooklyn, New York, of murder-for-hire and attempting to commit terrorism. He testified that Trump was not his only target, telling jurors then-President Joe Biden and former presidential candidate Nikki Haley were also on his list. 

He claimed he only took part in the plot, which was foiled by the FBI before coming to fruition, because Iran’s IRGC warned it would target his family.

FORMER IRANIAN MINISTER PRAISES TRUMP ASSASSINATION FATWA AS DAUGHTER LIVES IN NEW YORK

“I had no other options,” Merchant said. “My family was threatened.”

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Merchant now faces a maximum penalty of life in prison. His sentence will be determined at a later hearing.

Attorney General Pam Bondi said in a statement that Merchant “landed on American soil hoping to kill President Trump — instead, he was met with the might of American law enforcement.”

“The Department of Justice will remain ever-vigilant to protect Americans, prosecute terrorists, and halt acts of terrorism before they happen,” Bondi said.

This image provided by the Justice Department, contained in the complaint supporting the arrest warrant, shows Asif Merchant.  (Justice Department via AP, File)

Merchant was arrested after he was recorded on camera outlining a plot on a napkin to kill a politician with a person who turned out to be an FBI informant. Federal prosecutors showed video during the trial of Merchant speaking to the informant. The prosecutors said Merchant also tried to hire two hit men and pay them $5,000, but the men turned out to be federal agents posing as assassins.

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Smith, the FBI agent who met with Merchant after his arrest, said Merchant never conveyed that he feared for his family. Merchant said he wanted to do intelligence work and be paid for it, Smith said.

TRUMP DECLARES ‘I GOT HIM BEFORE HE GOT ME’ AFTER IRAN’S SUPREME LEADER KILLED IN STRIKE

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is whisked away by the Secret Service after shots rang out at a campaign rally at Butler Farm Show Inc. July 13, 2024, in Butler, Pa.  (Jeff Swensen/Getty Images)

The FBI agent also said Merchant was told by an Iranian handler to attend a Republican political rally to scope out security. But Merchant was worried about being identified, so he watched the rally online instead.

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Merchant’s defense team told jurors their client, who has two wives, was a family man and cared deeply about his faith and that he intentionally acted carelessly because he wanted to be caught.

In their closing arguments, defense lawyers said Merchant had his hand forced in the operation, thinking his family would be harmed if he did not cooperate. Additionally, the lawyers cited several instances in which Merchant’s actions as an intelligence operator were little more than incompetent.

Fox News’ Danielle Cavaliere, Brendan McDonald and Alexis McAdams contributed to this report.

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Feds say Pakistani national backed by Iran plotted to assassinate Trump, others in murder-for-hire scheme
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Veteran Rep. Darrell Issa decides not to seek reelection in new Democratic-leaning district

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Veteran Rep. Darrell Issa decides not to seek reelection in new Democratic-leaning district

Veteran Republican Rep. Darrell Issa announced Friday that he will not run for reelection in his newly configured congressional district in San Diego and Riverside counties.

“This decision has been on my mind for a while and I didn’t make it lightly,” Issa said in a statement, arguing that he would have won the 2026 race based on his campaign’s polling and his support from President Trump among others. “But after a quarter-century in Congress — and before that, a quarter-century in business — it’s the right time for a new chapter and new challenges.”

Issa called serving in Congress “the honor of my life,” and highlighted his work for constituents such as 100-year-old retired Navy fighter pilot Royce Williams, who was awarded a congressional medal of honor during Trump’s State of the Union address. “… every day my teams in Washington and California have worked to deliver for our constituents,” Issa said.

Issa, among the wealthiest members of Congress, began telling people earlier this week that he would retire from Congress, sources said.

He had an outsized impact on state and national politics, according to political experts and strategists, including funding the successful 2003 recall of Gov. Gray Davis, which ushered Arnold Schwarzenegger into office, and his work as the head of the powerful House Oversight and Government Reform Committee during high-profile investigations of the Obama administration.

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“Darrell Issa was a constant and consequential presence in the Republican Party in California without ever being its most prominent leader,” said Thad Kousser, a political science professor at UC San Diego. “He’s the person probably most responsible for the recall of Gray Davis going forward, but then he got boxed out of the race when Arnold Schwarzenegger got in. He became one of the most prominent protagonists of Barack Obama. But that never elevated him to statewide prominence or statewide office in his own state.”

National and state Republicans lauded Issa.

“We are grateful for Congressman Darrell Issa’s decades of dedicated service to the people of California and our nation,” said Christian Martinez, the spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “Throughout his career, he has embodied the spirit of public service, championed our military, and fought tirelessly for a stronger America.”

Kevin Spillane, a San Diego-area GOP political strategist, said Issa substantially enhanced his national profile during the investigation into the 2012 attack on the U.S. diplomatic mission in Benghazi, that resulted in the death of Ambassador Christopher Stevens and three other Americans.

“He’s been a national figure pretty much since he has been in Congress,” Spillane said. “He was of the people most vocal on Benghazi. He has been a national foil to Obama and Hillary Clinton. He was a major statewide figure in terms of funding the recall that allowed Arnold Schwarzenegger to be elected. He has been a major figure in San Diego County politics for more than two decades. He’s an important member of Congress.

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“It is a loss for California Republicans in terms of our congressional delegation,” Spillane said. “It’s a loss for national Republicans in terms of losing a significant figure in the Republican caucus.”

Issa’s move was prompted by the reconfiguration of his congressional district under Proposition 50, a redistricting plan voters passed in November to counter President Trump’s efforts to push GOP-led states to redraw their congressional lines to favor Republicans.

“Rep. Issa is unfortunately a victim of his own inaction,” said Paul Mitchell, the Democratic strategist who drew the new congressional districts voters approved in November that made Issa’s reelection prospects shaky. “Privately all the California Republican incumbents knew it was a mistake, and yet the veterans with all the chairmanships and power didn’t speak out.”

Issa wasn’t the only Republican member of California’s congressional delegation whose reelection plans shifted on Friday because of Proposition 50.

Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Roseville) made a surprise announcement Friday evening that he would run for reelection as an independent candidate.

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Voter-approved redistricting last year fractured Kiley’s huge Northern California district into six pieces. Earlier this week he announced he would run in the district that includes his hometown and other Sacramento-area suburbs but has a nine-point Democratic voter registration advantage.

Kiley described his decision to run as a no party preference candidate as a way to “fight back and protect our democracy” from “partisan games.”

“It is no secret I’ve been frustrated, at times disgusted, by the hyper-partisanship in Congress. In the last year it’s led to the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, a massive increase in healthcare costs, and of course, a pointless redistricting war,” Kiley wrote on the social media site X.

Shortly after Issa announced his retirement Friday evening, Democrats were quick to celebrate and boast about the party’s prospects of winning the seat and increasing its ranks in California’s congressional delegation.

“After over two decades of disastrous representation, Darrell Issa is once again running for the exits — and good riddance,” said Anna Elsasser, spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “Issa abandoning his voters now is the clearest sign yet that Republicans know he can’t win on his record of skyrocketing prices, gutting healthcare, and looking out for himself and wealthy special interests above all else.”

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Issa endorsed San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond to replace him. His supervisorial districts includes more than a quarter of the new district.

Desmond has been running in a neighboring congressional district that straddles Orange and San Diego counties that is currently represented by Rep. Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano). Though the Levin district has been considered competitive, Proposition 50 made it more safely Democratic. Desmond withdrew from that race and filed to run in Issa’s district on Thursday, according to the San Diego County registrar of voters.

Issa, 72, has represented various San Diego-area districts in Congress for 23 years. Issa’s once solidly Republican district had been trending more moderate in recent years.

Democratic registered voters outnumber Republicans by more than four percentage points in Issa’s new district, which spans San Diego and Riverside counties and was reshaped to include liberal communities such as Palm Springs, according to the nonpartisan California Target Book. Issa’s current congressional district had a 12-percentage-point GOP edge in voter registration in 2024.
As soon as the new districts were approved, speculation began swirling about Issa‘s reelection plans. Some of his supporters in Texas urged him to move there to run in a GOP-friendly Dallas-area district, but he said in December that he declined and would instead seek reelection in California.

“I believe that the people of San Diego County, who have elected me so many times, will, in fact, regardless of registration, vote for me,” Issa told the Fox affiliate in San Diego in December. “This is my home, and I’m going to fight for it.”

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Several Democrats had already announced plans to challenge Issa, including San Diego City Council member Marni Lynn von Wilpert and repeat candidate Ammar Campa-Najar.

Issa, a high school dropout and Army veteran, made his fortune by purchasing a struggling electronics business in 1980 and transforming it into the Viper car alarm system, with Issa’s voice warning potential thieves to “stand back.”

Times staff writer Nicole Nixon contributed to this report.

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